Assisting decision-making in Queensland barley production through chance constrained programming

A chance constrained programming model is developed to assist Queensland barley growers make varietal and agronomic decisions in the face of changing product demands and volatile production conditions. Unsuitable or overlooked in many risk programming applications, the chance constrained programming approach nonetheless aptly captures the single-stage decision problem faced by barley growers of whether to plant lower-yielding but potentially higher-priced malting varieties, given a particular expectation of meeting malting grade standards. Different expectations greatly affect the optimal mix of malting and feed barley activities. The analysis highlights the suitability of chance constrained programming to this specific class of farm decision problem.

A new formation model for M32: a threshed early-type spiral galaxy?

The origin of M32, the closest compact elliptical galaxy (cE), is a long-standing puzzle of galaxy fort-nation in the Local Group. Our N-body/smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations suggest a new scenario in which the strong tidal field of M31 can transform a spiral galaxy into a compact elliptical galaxy. As a low-luminosity spiral galaxy plunges into the central region of M31, most of the outer stellar and gaseous components of its disk are dramatically stripped as a result of M31's tidal field. The central bulge component, on the other hand, is just weakly influenced by the tidal field, owing to its compact configuration, and retains its morphology. M31's strong tidal field also induces rapid gas transfer to the central region, triggers a nuclear starburst, and consequently forms the central high-density and more metal-rich stellar populations with relatively young ages. Thus, in this scenario, M32 was previously the bulge of a spiral galaxy tidally interacting with M31 several gigayears ago. Furthermore, we suggest that cE's like M32 are rare, the result of both the rather narrow parameter space for tidal interactions that morphologically transform spiral galaxies into cE's and the very short timescale (less than a few times 10(9) yr) for cE's to be swallowed by their giant host galaxies (via dynamical friction) after their formation.

A Randomized Trial of Sodium Fluoride (60 mg) ± Estrogen in Postmenopausal Osteoporotic Vertebral Fractures

Postmenopausal Caucasian women aged less than 80 years (n = 99) with one or more atraumatic vertebral fracture and no hip fractures, were treated by cyclical administration of enteric coated sodium fluoride (NaF) or no NaF for 27 months, with precautions to prevent excessive stimulation of bone turnover. In the first study 65 women, unexposed to estrogen (-E study), age 70.8 +/- 0.8 years (mean SEM) were all treated with calcium (Ca) 1.0-1.2 g daily and ergocalciferol (D) 0.25 mg per 25 kg once weekly and were randomly assigned to cyclical NaF (6 months on. 3 months off, initial dose 60 mg/day; group F CaD, n = 34) or no NaF (group CaD, n = 3 1). In the second study 34 patients. age 65.5 +/- 1.2 years, on hormone replacement therapy (E) at baseline, had this standardized, and were all treated with Ca and D and similarly randomized (FE CaD, n = 17, E CaD, n = 17) (+E study). The patients were stratified according to E status and subsequently assigned randomly to NaF. Seventy-five patients completed the trial. Both groups treated with NaF showed an increase in lumbar spinal density (by DXA) above baseline by 27 months: FE CaD + 16.2% and F CaD +9.3% (both p = 0.0001). In neither group CaD nor E CaD did lumbar spinal density increase. Peripheral bone loss occurred at most sites in the F CaD group at 27 months: tibia/fibula shaft -7.3% (p = 0.005); femoral shaft -7.1% (p = 0.004); distal forearm -4.0% (p = 0.004); total hip -4.1% (p = 0. 003); and femoral neck -3.5% (p = 0.006). No significant loss occurred in group FE CaD. Differences between the two NaF groups were greatest at the total hip at 27 months but were not significant [p < 0.05; in view of the multiple bone mineral density (BMD) sites, an alpha of 0.01 was employed to denote significance in BMD changes throughout this paper]. Using Cox's proportional hazards model, in the -E study there were significantly more patients with first fresh vertebral fractures in those treated with NaF than in those not so treated (RR = 24.2, p = 0.008, 95% CI 2.3-255). Patients developing first fresh fractures in the first 9 months were markedly different between groups: -23% of F CaD, 0 of CaD, 29% of FE CaD and 0 of E CaD. The incidence of incomplete (stress) fractures was similar in the two NaF-treated groups. Complete nonvertebral fractures did not occur in the two +E groups, there were no differences between groups F CaD and CaD. Baseline BMD (spine and femoral neck) was related to incident vertebral fractures in the control groups (no NaF), but not in the two NaF groups. Our results and a literature review indicate that fluoride salts. if used, should be at low dosage, with pretreatment and co-treatment with a bone resorption inhibitor.

Influence of patient age and implantation technique on the probability of re-replacement of the homograft aortic valve

Background and aim of the study: Results of valve re-replacement (reoperation) in 898 patients undergoing aortic valve replacement with cryopreserved homograft valves between 1975 and 1998 are reported. The study aim was to provide estimates of unconditional probability of valve reoperation and cumulative incidence function (actual risk) of reoperation. Methods: Valves were implanted by subcoronary insertion (n = 500), inclusion cylinder (n = 46), and aortic root replacement (n = 352). Probability of reoperation was estimated by adopting a mixture model framework within which estimates were adjusted for two risk factors: patient age at initial replacement, and implantation technique. Results: For a patient aged 50 years, the probability of reoperation in his/her lifetime was estimated as 44% and 56% for non-root and root replacement techniques, respectively. For a patient aged 70 years, estimated probability of reoperation was 16% and 25%, respectively. Given that a reoperation is required, patients with non-root replacement have a higher hazard rate than those with root replacement (hazards ratio = 1.4), indicating that non-root replacement patients tend to undergo reoperation earlier before death than root replacement patients. Conclusion: Younger patient age and root versus non-root replacement are risk factors for reoperation. Valve durability is much less in younger patients, while root replacement patients appear more likely to live longer and hence are more likely to require reoperation.

A randomized trial comparing hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and HRT plus calcitriol in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis with vertebral fractures: Benefit of the combination on total body and hip density

We report a prospective, randomized, multi-center, open-label 2-year trial of 81 postmenopausal women aged 53-79 years with at least one minimal-trauma vertebral fracture (VF) and low (T-score below 2) lumbar bone mineral density (BMD). Group HRT received piperazine estrone sulfate (PES) 0.625 - 1.25 mg/d +/- medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) 2.5 - 5 mg/d,- group HRT/D received HRT plus calcitriol 0.25 mug bd. All with a baseline dietary calcium (Ca) of < I g/d received Ca carbonate 0.6 g nocte. Final data were on 66 - 70 patients. On HRT/D, significant (P < 0.001) BNID increases from baseline by DXA were at total body - head, trochanter, Ward's, total hip, inter-trochanter and femoral shaft (% group mean Delta 4.2, 6.1, 9.3. 3.7. 3.3 and 3.3%, respectively). On HRT, at these significant Deltas were restricted to the trochanter and sites. si Wards. Significant advantages of HRT/D over HRT were in BMD of total body (- head), total hip and trochanter (all P = 0.01). The differences in mean Delta at these sites were 1.3, 2.6 and 3.9%. At the following, both groups Improved significantly -lumbar spine (AP and lateral), forearm shaft and ultradistal tibia/fibula. The weightbearing, site - specific benefits of the combination associated with significant suppression of parathyroid hormone-suggest a beneficial effect on cortical bone. Suppression of bone turnover was significantly greater on HRT/D (serum osteocalcin P = 0.024 and urinary hydroxyproline/creatinine ratio P = 0.035). There was no significant difference in the number of patients who developed fresh VFs during the trial (HRT 8/36, 22%; HRT/D 4/34, 12% - intention to treat); likewise in the number who developed incident nonvertebral fractures. This Is the first study comparing the 2 treatments in a fracture population. The results indicate a significant benefit of calcitriol combined with HRT on total body BMD and on BNID at the hip, the major site of osteoporotic fracture.

The game to play: expanding the co-opetition proposal through the strategic games matrix

Purpose - Using Brandenburger and Nalebuff`s 1995 co-opetition model as a reference, the purpose of this paper is to seek to develop a tool that, based on the tenets of classical game theory, would enable scholars and managers to identify which games may be played in response to the different conflict of interest situations faced by companies in their business environments. Design/methodology/approach - The literature on game theory and business strategy are reviewed and a conceptual model, the strategic games matrix (SGM), is developed. Two novel games are described and modeled. Findings - The co-opetition model is not sufficient to realistically represent most of the conflict of interest situations faced by companies. It seeks to address this problem through development of the SGM, which expands upon Brandenburger and Nalebuff`s model by providing a broader perspective, through incorporation of an additional dimension (power ratio between players) and three novel, respectively, (rival, individualistic, and associative). Practical implications - This proposed model, based on the concepts of game theory, should be used to train decision- and policy-makers to better understand, interpret and formulate conflict management strategies. Originality/value - A practical and original tool to use game models in conflict of interest situations is generated. Basic classical games, such as Nash, Stackelberg, Pareto, and Minimax, are mapped on the SGM to suggest in which situations they Could be useful. Two innovative games are described to fit four different types of conflict situations that so far have no corresponding game in the literature. A test application of the SGM to a classic Intel Corporation strategic management case, in the complex personal computer industry, shows that the proposed method is able to describe, to interpret, to analyze, and to prescribe optimal competitive and/or cooperative strategies for each conflict of interest situation.

Systemic Model for Diagnosis of the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises from Two Cities from the Countryside of the State of So Paulo in Brazil

This article presents a proposal of a systemic model composed for the micro and small companies (MSE) of the region of Ribeiro Preto and the agents which influenced their environment. The proposed model was based on Stafford Beer`s (Diagnosing the system for organizations. Chichester, Wiley, 1985) systemic methodologies VSM (Viable System Model) and on Werner Ulrich`s (1983) CSH (Critical Systems Heuristics). The VSM is a model for the diagnosis of the structure of an organization and of its flows of information through the application of the cybernetics concepts (Narvarte, In El Modelo del Sistema Viable-MSV: experiencias de su aplicacin en Chile. Proyecto Cerebro Colectivo del IAS, Santiago, 2001). On the other hand, CSH focus on the context of the social group applied to the systemic vision as a counterpoint to the organizational management view considered by the VSM. MSE of Ribeiro Preto and Sertozinho had been analyzed as organizations inserted in systems that relate and integrate with other systems concerning the public administration, entities of representation and promotion agencies. The research questions: which are the bonds of interaction among the subsystems in this process and who are the agents involved? The systemic approach not only diagnosed a social group, formed by MSE of Ribeiro Preto and Sertozinho, public authorities and support entities, but could also delineate answers that aimed the clarification of obscure questions generating financial assistance to the formularization of efficient actions for the development of this system.

Loss of Ergodicity in the Transition from Annealed to Quenched Disorder in a Finite Kinetic Ising Model

We consider a kinetic Ising model which represents a generic agent-based model for various types of socio-economic systems. We study the case of a finite (and not necessarily large) number of agents N as well as the asymptotic case when the number of agents tends to infinity. The main ingredient are individual decision thresholds which are either fixed over time (corresponding to quenched disorder in the Ising model, leading to nonlinear deterministic dynamics which are generically non-ergodic) or which may change randomly over time (corresponding to annealed disorder, leading to ergodic dynamics). We address the question how increasing the strength of annealed disorder relative to quenched disorder drives the system from non-ergodic behavior to ergodicity. Mathematically rigorous analysis provides an explicit and detailed picture for arbitrary realizations of the quenched initial thresholds, revealing an intriguing ""jumpy"" transition from non-ergodicity with many absorbing sets to ergodicity. For large N we find a critical strength of annealed randomness, above which the system becomes asymptotically ergodic. Our theoretical results suggests how to drive a system from an undesired socio-economic equilibrium (e. g. high level of corruption) to a desirable one (low level of corruption).

Use of pleopod morphology to determine sexual dimorphism and maturity in hermit crabs: Isocheles sawayai as a model

In the Anomura, studies on growth patterns are infrequent, possibly because the heterogeneity of the group, especially in terms of morphology, makes it difficult to construct generalized growth models. Particularly hermit crabs are an interesting group to evaluate aspects of growth, because of their unique body. Isocheles sawayai, a hermit crab found only in the western Atlantic Ocean, poorly known with respect to its sexual dimorphism and maturity, was investigated here based on morphometry. Monthly collections (July 2001 through June 2003) were made from a shrimp fishing boat in the Caraguatatuba region on the northern coast of the state of SA o pound Paulo, Brazil. The specimens were measured and weighed, and had their sex checked. Throughout the sampling period, 374 specimens of I. sawayai were collected (11.23% nonovigerous females, 6.69% ovigerous females, 79.41% males and 2.67% intersexes). The size at which morphological sexual maturity was reached by both sexes ranged from 4.0 to 4.3 mm shield length, according to the relative growth and the size of the smallest ovigerous female. Sexual dimorphism was shown by males, which were significantly larger than females, and by differences in growth pattern between the sexes, especially for relationships that involved the pleopods, which is related to their different functions in males and females. The present study is one of the first to use pleopod morphometry to determine sexual maturity and dimorphism in hermit crabs, especially for species with intersexuality such as I. sawayai.

Early Brief Treatment with Losartan plus Mycophenolate Mofetil Provides Lasting Renoprotection in a Renal Ablation Model

Background: Inflammatory events antecede established renal injury in rats with 5/6 renal ablation (Nx), as indicated by the beneficial effects of early, uninterrupted treatment with mycophenolate mofetil (MMF). Angiotensin II also exerts a major pathogenic role at this initial phase. We investigated whether losartan (L) or L+MMF treatment, started early, and L+MMF treatment, started late, would exert lasting renoprotection in Nx even after being discontinued. Methods: Adult male Munich-Wistar rats underwent Nx and were divided into three groups: Nx (untreated), Nx(L) (given L), and Nx(LMMF) (given L and MMF). Protocol 1: treatments began on day 1, and ceased on day 30, after Nx. Protocol 2: L+MMF treatment began on day 30 and ceased on day 60. Results: Protocol 1: on day 30, hypertension, albuminuria and renal injury were strongly attenuated in Groups Nx(L) and Nx(LMMF). On day 120, these abnormalities were still attenuated in group Nx(LMMF). Protocol 2: on day 120, all parameters were similar between this late Nx(LMMF) group and untreated Nx. Conclusion: In Nx, temporary suppression of early, transitory hemodynamic/inflammatory phenomena affords relatively durable renoprotection even after treatment discontinuation. This effect is not obtained with similar temporary treatment initiated later in the course of renal disease. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

Discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy: A post hoc analysis of a prospective multicenter observational study

Objectives: To describe current practice for the discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy in a multinational setting and to identify variables associated with successful discontinuation. The approach to discontinue continuous renal replacement therapy may affect patient outcomes. However, there is lack of information on how and under what conditions continuous renal replacement therapy is discontinued. Design: Post hoc analysis of a prospective observational study. Setting. Fifty-four intensive care units in 23 countries. Patients: Five hundred twenty-nine patients (52.6%) who survived initial therapy among 1006 patients treated with continuous renal replacement therapy. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results., Three hundred thirteen patients were removed successfully from continuous renal replacement therapy and did not require any renal replacement therapy for at least 7 days and were classified as the ""success"" group and the rest (216 patients) were classified as the ""repeat-RRT"" (renal replacement therapy) group. Patients in the ""success"" group had lower hospital mortality (28.5% vs. 42.7%, p < .0001) compared with patients in the ""repeat-RRT"" group. They also had lower creatinine and urea concentrations and a higher urine output at the time of stopping continuous renal replacement therapy. Multivariate logistic regression analysis for successful discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy identified urine output (during the 24 hrs before stopping continuous renal replacement therapy: odds ratio, 1.078 per 100 mL/day increase) and creatinine (odds ratio, 0.996 per mu mol/L increase) as significant predictors of successful cessation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict successful discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy was 0.808 for urine output and 0.635 for creatinine. The predictive ability of urine output was negatively affected by the use of diuretics (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.671 with diuretics and 0.845 without diuretics). Conclusions. We report on the current practice of discontinuing continuous renal replacement therapy in a multinational setting. Urine output at the time of initial cessation (if continuous renal replacement therapy was the most important predictor of successful discontinuation, especially if occurring without the administration of diuretics. (Crit Care Med 2009; 37:2576-2582)

Three-dimensional electrical impedance, tomography: A topology optimization approach

Electrical impedance tomography is a technique to estimate the impedance distribution within a domain, based on measurements on its boundary. In other words, given the mathematical model of the domain, its geometry and boundary conditions, a nonlinear inverse problem of estimating the electric impedance distribution can be solved. Several impedance estimation algorithms have been proposed to solve this problem. In this paper, we present a three-dimensional algorithm, based on the topology optimization method, as an alternative. A sequence of linear programming problems, allowing for constraints, is solved utilizing this method. In each iteration, the finite element method provides the electric potential field within the model of the domain. An electrode model is also proposed (thus, increasing the accuracy of the finite element results). The algorithm is tested using numerically simulated data and also experimental data, and absolute resistivity values are obtained. These results, corresponding to phantoms with two different conductive materials, exhibit relatively well-defined boundaries between them, and show that this is a practical and potentially useful technique to be applied to monitor lung aeration, including the possibility of imaging a pneumothorax.

When Should Renal Replacement Therapy be Initiated for Acute Kidney Injury?

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is now well recognized as an independent risk factor for increased morbidity and mortality particularly when dialysis is needed. Although renal replacement therapy (RRT) has been used in AKI for more than five decades, there is no standard methodology to predict which AKI patients will need dialysis and who will recover renal function without requiring dialysis. The lack of consensus on what parameters should guide the decision to start dialysis has led to a wide variation in dialysis utilization. A contributing factor is the lack of studies in the modern era evaluating the relationship of timing of dialysis initiation and outcomes. Although listed as one of the top priorities in research on AKI, timing of dialysis initiation has not been included as a factor in large, randomized controlled trials in this area. In this review we will discuss the criteria that have been used to define early vs. late initiation in previous studies on dialysis initiation. In addition, we propose a patient-centered approach to define early and late initiation that could serve as framework for managing patients and for future studies in this area.

Acute care surgeon South American model

Background In the World Health Organization book by Murray and Lopez (The Global Burden of Disease), the authors make the point that there are major regional differences across the world for death from injury. In the European market economies, injuries accounted for 6% of all deaths, of which the majority were the result of road traffic accidents. In stark contrast, in Latin America and the Caribbean, injuries account for 12-13% of all deaths, and most of these are the result of violence. An estimated 30% of all male deaths are from external causes, and road traffic accidents are the number two cause of death. Within South American countries, trauma is the second most common cause of death in Columbia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Brazil. In other South American countries, it is the third or fourth most common cause of death. If one examines the Disability Adjusted Life Years, South America is the third highest in the world. Death from injury primarily affects people in the middle- and low-income group. Traffic accidents and suicide are the main causes of trauma in the high-income population. South America is made up of developing and poor countries that have trauma as a very important cause of death and disability. Methods The author has reviewed information on injury from the World Health Organization, Pan American Health Organization, and Brazilian Health Ministry. In addition, a search of injury was performed through MEDLINE. Results and Conclusions The results of this review show that trauma is a major public health problem in South America. At the present time, there is a lack of statewide system development. In addition, there are difficulties in training surgeons to cope with these problems.

Impact of Stent-Graft Oversizing on the Thoracic Aorta: Experimental Study in a Porcine Model

Purpose: To analyze in an experimental animal model the effect of 4 different levels of stents-graft oversizing on non-atherosclerotic aortas such as those found in young individuals who undergo stent-graft repair for traumatic aortic injuries. Methods: The diameter of the porcine thoracic aorta is similar to the aorta of young adults (18-20 mm), so 25 pigs were randomized into 5 groups: 1 control (without stent-graft) and 4 oversizing groups (A: 10%-19%, B: 20%-29%, C: 30%-39%, and D: >40%). Two types of biomechanical tests were performed on all aortas 4 weeks after endoprosthesis deployment. Results: The results of the detachment test, which analyzed the strength necessary to remove the stent-graft from the aorta, were similar in the 4 groups (A: 42 N, B: 41 N, C: 46 N, and D: 46 N). However, 2 aortas ruptured during the tests (groups C and D). The second test was performed in 3 aortic segments. Maximum shear strength, maximum stress, and maximum tension supported by the aortic wall had a negative and linear correlation with oversizing. There were significant differences in all 4 groups when compared with the control group. Strain, which reflects the elastic properties of the aortic wall, was very similar in all 4 groups, but a great difference was found when compared with the control group (p<0.0001). Conclusion: The study showed an important subacute change in the biomechanical properties of the aortic wall after implantation of an oversized endoprosthesis. This weakness of the aortic wall was confirmed by 2 ruptures during the detachment test. These results partially explain the interaction of stent-grafts with non-atherosclerotic thoracic aortas and may serve as a basis for further studies and the development of specific material to be used in vascular trauma and young patients. J Endovasc Ther. 2011; 18: 576-584