Corporate credit risk prediction under stochastic volatility and jumps

This paper examines the impact of allowing for stochastic volatility and jumps (SVJ) in a structural model on corporate credit risk prediction. The results from a simulation study verify the better performance of the SVJ model compared with the commonly used Merton model, and three sources are provided to explain the superiority. The empirical analysis on two real samples further ascertains the importance of recognizing the stochastic volatility and jumps by showing that the SVJ model decreases bias in spread prediction from the Merton model, and better explains the time variation in actual CDS spreads. The improvements are found particularly apparent in small firms or when the market is turbulent such as the recent financial crisis.

Surface plasmon-enhanced zeolite catalysis under light irradiation and its correlation with molecular polarity of reactants

Enhanced catalytic performance of zeoltes via the plasmonic effect of gold nanoparticles has been discovered to be closely correlated with the molecular polarity of reactants. The intensified polarised electrostatic field of Na+ in NaY plays a critical role in stretching the C=O bond of aldehydes to improve the reaction rate.

Score-level multibiometric fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory incorporating uncertainty factors

While existing multi-biometic Dempster-Shafer the- ory fusion approaches have demonstrated promising perfor- mance, they do not model the uncertainty appropriately, sug- gesting that further improvement can be achieved. This research seeks to develop a unified framework for multimodal biometric fusion to take advantage of the uncertainty concept of Dempster- Shafer theory, improving the performance of multi-biometric authentication systems. Modeling uncertainty as a function of uncertainty factors affecting the recognition performance of the biometric systems helps to address the uncertainty of the data and the confidence of the fusion outcome. A weighted combination of quality measures and classifiers performance (Equal Error Rate) are proposed to encode the uncertainty concept to improve the fusion. We also found that quality measures contribute unequally to the recognition performance, thus selecting only significant factors and fusing them with a Dempster-Shafer approach to generate an overall quality score play an important role in the success of uncertainty modeling. The proposed approach achieved a competitive performance (approximate 1% EER) in comparison with other Dempster-Shafer based approaches and other conventional fusion approaches.

Kumarina and bidders voting in transfer schemes

Transfer schemes are an alternative means of acquiring control of a company to making a takeover bid under the provisions in Ch 6 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). The recent decision Re Kumarina Resources Ltd [2013] FCA 549 overturned long-standing practice in relation to a certain type of transfer scheme. If followed, the decision would allow a “bidder” to vote at scheme meetings where the scheme consideration for the acquisition of the target shares are shares in another company, and the scheme results in a merger. But the bidder is not allowed to vote where the scheme consideration is cash. The article points out the difficulties arising from this decision and argues that it should not be followed. In providing a “no objection” statement, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has created uncertainty as to the approach it will take towards the bidders being allowed to vote at scheme meetings where the scheme consideration for the acquisition of target shares are shares in another company. The article also points out that in providing the no objection statement in Kumarina, ASIC appears to have ignored breaches of s 606(1) of the Corporations Act. There is a pressing need for ASIC to clarify its position and, in particular, whether or not it will provide a no objection statement in respect of future transfer schemes where a bidder (or its parent company) votes at the scheme meeting.

A constitutive model for mechanical response characterization of pumpkin peel and flesh tissues under tensile and compressive loadings

Enhancing quality of food products and reducing volume of waste during mechanical operations of food industry requires a comprehensive knowledge of material response under loadings. While research has focused on mechanical response of food material, the volume of waste after harvesting and during processing stages is still considerably high in both developing and developed countries. This research aims to develop and evaluate a constitutive model of mechanical response of tough skinned vegetables under postharvest and processing operations. The model focuses on both tensile and compressive properties of pumpkin flesh and peel tissues where the behaviours of these tissues vary depending on various factors such as rheological response and cellular structure. Both elastic and plastic response of tissue were considered in the modelling process and finite elasticity combined with pseudo elasticity theory was applied to generate the model. The outcomes were then validated using the published results of experimental work on pumpkin flesh and peel under uniaxial tensile and compression. The constitutive coefficients for peel under tensile test was α = 25.66 and β = −18.48 Mpa and for flesh α = −5.29 and β = 5.27 Mpa. under compression the constitutive coefficients were α = 4.74 and β = −1.71 Mpa for peel and α = 0.76 and β = −1.86 Mpa for flesh samples. Constitutive curves predicted the values of force precisely and close to the experimental values. The curves were fit for whole stress versus strain curve as well as a section of curve up to bio yield point. The modelling outputs had presented good agreement with the empirical values and the constructive curves exhibited a very similar pattern to the experimental curves. The presented constitutive model can be applied next to other agricultural materials under loading in future.

Numerical studies on CFRP strengthened steel columns under transverse impact

Strengthening of metallic structures using carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) has become a smart strengthening option over the conventional strengthening method. Transverse impact loading due to accidental vehicular collision can lead to the failure of existing steel hollow tubular columns. However, knowledge is very limited on the behaviour of CFRP strengthened steel members under dynamic impact loading condition. This paper deals with the numerical simulation of CFRP strengthened square hollow section (SHS) steel columns under transverse impact loading to predict the behaviour and failure modes. The transverse impact loading is simulated using finite element (FE) analysis based on numerical approach. The accuracy of the FE modelling is ensured by comparing the predicted results with available experimental tests. The effects of impact velocity, impact mass, support condition, axial loading and CFRP thickness are examined through detail parametric study. The impact simulation results indicate that the strengthening technique shows an improved impact resistance capacity by reducing lateral displacement of the strengthened column about 58% compared to the bare steel column. Axial loading plays an important role on the failure behaviour of tubular column.

Durability performance of carbon fibre-reinforced polymer strengthened circular hollow steel members under cold weather

The use of circular hollow steel members has attracted a great deal of attention during past few years because of having excellent structural properties, aesthetic appearance, corrosion and fire protection capability. However, no one can deny the structural deficiency of such structures due to reduction of strength when they are exposed to severe environmental conditions such as marine environment, cold and hot weather. Hence strengthening and retrofitting of structural steel members is now very imperative. This paper presents the findings of a research program that was conducted to study the bond durability of carbon fibre-reinforced polymer (CFRP) strengthened steel tubular members under cold weather and tested under four-point bending. Six number of CFRP-strengthened specimens and one unstrengthened specimen were considered in this program. The three specimens having sand blasted surface to be strengthened was pre-treated with MBrace primer and other three were remained untreated and then cured under ambient temperature at least four weeks and cold weather (3 C) for three and six months period of time. Quasi-static tests were then performed on beams to failure under four-point bending. The structural response of each specimen was predicted in terms of failure load, mid-span deflection, composite beam behaviour and failure mode. The research outcomes show that the cold weather immersion had an adverse effect on durability of CFRP-strengthened steel structures. Moreover, the epoxy based adhesion promoter was found to enhance the bond durability in plastic range. The analytical models presented in this study were found to be in good agreement in terms of predicting ultimate load and deflection. Finally, design factors are proposed to address the short-terms durability performance under cold weather.

Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Medical negligence, causation and liability for non-disclosure of risk : a post-wallace framework and critique

Through an examination of Wallace v Kam, this article considers and evaluates the law of causation in the specific context of a medical practitioner’s duty to provide information to patients concerning material risks of treatment. To supply a contextual background for the analysis which follows, Part II summarises the basic principles of causation law, while Part III provides an overview of the case and the reasoning adopted in the decisions at first instance and on appeal. With particular emphasis upon the reasoning in the courts of appeal, Part IV then examines the implications of the case in the context of other jurisprudence in this field and, in so doing, provides a framework for a structured consideration of causation issues in future non-disclosure cases under the Australian civil liability legislation. As will become clear, Wallace was fundamentally decided on the basis of policy reasoning centred upon the purpose behind the legal duty violated. Although the plurality in Rogers v Whitaker rejected the utility of expressions such as ‘the patient’s right of self-determination’ in this context, some Australian jurisprudence may be thought to frame the practitioner’s duty to warn in terms of promoting a patient’s autonomy, or right to decide whether to submit to treatment proposed. Accordingly, the impact of Wallace upon the protection of this right, and the interrelation between it and the duty to warn’s purpose, is investigated. The analysis in Part IV also evaluates the courts’ reasoning in Wallace by questioning the extent to which Wallace’s approach to liability and causal connection in non-disclosure of risk cases: depends upon the nature and classification of the risk(s) in question; and can be reconciled with the way in which patients make decisions. Finally, Part V adopts a comparative approach by considering whether the same decision might be reached if Wallace was determined according to English law.

When can a tenancy be terminated under s 129 of the Property Law Act 1974 (Qld)?

This article reviews the nature and purpose of s 129 of the Property Law Act 1974 (Qld) whose application has given rise to some confusion in the past, particularly where the lessee against whom it is being used is also in breach of the lease at the time of receiving the notice. The article explores the historical origins of the section, firstly in New South Wales where it was enacted in 1930, and attempts to outline modern circumstances where it may be applied or particularly applied in Queensland.

Uncertainty quantification applied to the performance analysis of a conical diffuser

This paper offers an uncertainty quantification (UQ) study applied to the performance analysis of the ERCOFTAC conical diffuser. A deterministic CFD solver is coupled with a non-statistical generalised Polynomial Chaos(gPC)representation based on a pseudo-spectral projection method. Such approach has the advantage to not require any modification of the CFD code for the propagation of random disturbances in the aerodynamic field. The stochactic results highlihgt the importance of the inlet velocity uncertainties on the pressure recovery both alone and when coupled with a second uncertain variable. From a theoretical point of view, we investigate the possibility to build our gPC representation on arbitray grid, thus increasing the flexibility of the stochastic framework.

Navigating uncertainty in Australia : fostering informed citizenship through teaching controversial issues with pre-service teachers

Australia is a multicultural immigrant society created by public policy and direct state action over a period of two hundred years. It is now one of the world’s most diverse societies. However, like many nations, Australia faces challenges to managing ‘unauthorized arrivals’ who claim to be refugees. The issue of how to deal with unauthorized arrivals is controversial and highly emotive as it challenges public policy and government capacity to manage the multicultural ‘mix’ of Australia’s population. It also raises questions about border security. Given that it is impossible to discern beforehand who is a ‘proper’ refugee and who is not, claims to refugee status by unauthorised arrivals in Australia need to be tested against international convention criteria devised by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). There are no simple solutions to controversial questions such as how and where should unauthorised arrivals, and the children accompanying them, be housed whilst their claims are investigated? Moreover, as this issue continues to prompt division and heated debate in Australian society, teachers new to the profession are often reluctant to explore it in the classroom. However, there are opportunities in national and state curriculum documents for the values dimensions of curriculum inquiries into controversial issues such as this to be addressed. For example, the most recent national statement on the goals for schooling in Australia, the Melbourne Declaration (MCEETYA, 2008), makes clear that Australian students need to be prepared for the challenges of the 21st century and to develop the capacity for innovation and complex problem-solving. The Melbourne Declaration informs the first national curriculum to be implemented in the Australian states and territories, and all other national and state initiatives. Its focus on developing active and informed citizens who can contribute to a socially cohesive society implies a capacity to deal with a range of issues associated with cultural diversity, This chapter explores the ways in which pre-service and early career teachers in one Australian state reflect upon curriculum opportunities to address controversial issues in the social sciences and history classroom. As part of their pre-service education, all the participants in this study completed a final year social science curriculum method unit that embedded a range of controversial issues, including the placement of children in Australian Immigration Detention Centres (IDCs), for investigation. By drawing from interviews and focus groups conducted with different cohorts of pre-service teachers in their final year of university study and beginning years of teaching, this chapter analyses the range of perceptions about how controversial issues can be examined in the secondary classroom as part of fostering informed citizenship. The discussion and analysis of the qualitative data in this study makes no claims for the representativeness of its findings, rather, a range of beginner teacher insights into a complex and important facet of teaching in a period of change and uncertainty is offered.

Finite element analysis of CFRP strengthened steel hollow sections under tension

This paper presents a nonlinear finite element (FE) model for the analysis of very high strength (VHS) steel hollow sections wrapped by high modulus carbon fibre rein forced polymer (CFRP) sheets. The bond strength of CFRP wrapped VHS circular steel hollow section under tension is investigated using the FE model. The three dimensional FE model by Nonlinear static analysis has been carried out by Strand 7 finite element software. The model is validated by the experimental data obtained from Fawzia et al [1]. A detail parametric study has been performed to examine the effect of number of CFRP layers, different diameters of VHS steel tube and different bond lengths of CFRP sheet. The analytical model developed by Fawzia et al. [1] has been used to determine the load carrying capacity of different diameters of CFRP strengthened VHS steel tube by using the capacity from each layer of CFRP sheet. The results from FE model have found in reasonable agreement with the analytical model developed by Fawzia et al [1]. This validation was necessary because the analytical model by Fawzia et al [1] was developed by using only one diameter of VHS steel tube and fixed (five) number of CFRP layers. It can be concluded that the developed analytical model is valid for CFRP strengthened VHS steel tubes with diameter range of 38mm to 100mm and CFRP layer range of 3 to 5 layers. Based on the results it can also be concluded that the effective bond length is consistent for different diameters of steel tubes and different layers of CFRP. Three layers of CFRP is considered most effective wrapping scheme due to the cost effectiveness. Finally the distribution of longitudinal and hoop stress has been determined by the finite element model for different diameters of CFRP strengthened VHS steel tube.

The global epidemiology and contribution of cannabis use and dependence to the global burden of disease: results from the GBD 2010 study

Aim Estimate the prevalence of cannabis dependence and its contribution to the global burden of disease. Methods Systematic reviews of epidemiological data on cannabis dependence (1990-2008) were conducted in line with PRISMA and meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Culling and data extraction followed protocols, with cross-checking and consistency checks. DisMod-MR, the latest version of generic disease modelling system, redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, imputed prevalence by age, year and sex for 187 countries and 21 regions. The disability weight associated with cannabis dependence was estimated through population surveys and multiplied by prevalence data to calculate the years of life lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). YLDs and DALYs attributed to regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia were also estimated. Results There were an estimated 13.1 million cannabis dependent people globally in 2010 (point prevalence0.19% (95% uncertainty: 0.17-0.21%)). Prevalence peaked between 20-24 yrs, was higher in males (0.23% (0.2-0.27%)) than females (0.14% (0.12-0.16%)) and in high income regions. Cannabis dependence accounted for 2 million DALYs globally (0.08%; 0.05-0.12%) in 2010; a 22% increase in crude DALYs since 1990 largely due to population growth. Countries with statistically higher age-standardised DALY rates included the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Western European countries such as the United Kingdom; those with lower DALY rates were from Sub-Saharan Africa-West and Latin America. Regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia accounted for an estimated 7,000 DALYs globally. Conclusion Cannabis dependence is a disorder primarily experienced by young adults, especially in higher income countries. It has not been shown to increase mortality as opioid and other forms of illicit drug dependence do. Our estimates suggest that cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia is not a major contributor to population-level disease burden.

The epidemiological modelling of major depressive disorder : application for the global burden of disease study 2010

Background Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). Method Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data. Results There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2–4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1–4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0–6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0–3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks. Conclusion We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD.