Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model

This study explores the decadal potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as represented in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model, along with the predictability of associated oceanic and atmospheric fields. Using a 1000-year control run, we analyze the prognostic potential predictability (PPP) of the AMOC through ensembles of simulations with perturbed initial conditions. Based on a measure of the ensemble spread, the modelled AMOC has an average predictive skill of 8 years, with some degree of dependence on the AMOC initial state. Diagnostic potential predictability of surface temperature and precipitation is also identified in the control run and compared to the PPP. Both approaches clearly bring out the same regions exhibiting the highest predictive skill. Generally, surface temperature has the highest skill up to 2 decades in the far North Atlantic ocean. There are also weak signals over a few oceanic areas in the tropics and subtropics. Predictability over land is restricted to the coastal areas bordering oceanic predictable regions. Potential predictability at interannual and longer timescales is largely absent for precipitation in spite of weak signals identified mainly in the Nordic Seas. Regions of weak signals show some dependence on AMOC initial state. All the identified regions are closely linked to decadal AMOC fluctuations suggesting that the potential predictability of climate arises from the mechanisms controlling these fluctuations. Evidence for dependence on AMOC initial state also suggests that studying skills from case studies may prove more useful to understand predictability mechanisms than computing average skill from numerous start dates.

The non-conservation of potential vorticity by a dynamical core compared with the effects of parametrized physical processes

Numerical models of the atmosphere combine a dynamical core, which approximates solutions to the adiabatic, frictionless governing equations for fluid dynamics, with tendencies arising from the parametrization of other physical processes. Since potential vorticity (PV) is conserved following fluid flow in adiabatic, frictionless circumstances, it is possible to isolate the effects of non-conservative processes by accumulating PV changes in an air-mass relative framework. This “PV tracer technique” is used to accumulate separately the effects on PV of each of the different non-conservative processes represented in a numerical model of the atmosphere. Dynamical cores are not exactly conservative because they introduce, explicitly or implicitly, some level of dissipation and adjustment of prognostic model variables which acts to modify PV. Here, the PV tracers technique is extended to diagnose the cumulative effect of the non-conservation of PV by a dynamical core and its characteristics relative to the PV modification by parametrized physical processes. Quantification using the Met Office Unified Model reveals that the magnitude of the non-conservation of PV by the dynamical core is comparable to those from physical processes. Moreover, the residual of the PV budget, when tracing the effects of the dynamical core and physical processes, is at least an order of magnitude smaller than the PV tracers associated with the most active physical processes. The implication of this work is that the non-conservation of PV by a dynamical core can be assessed in case studies with a full suite of physics parametrizations and directly compared with the PV modification by parametrized physical processes. The nonconservation of PV by the dynamical core is shown to move the position of the extratropical tropopause while the parametrized physical processes have a lesser effect at the tropopause level.

Processes controlling surface, bottom and lateral melt of Arctic sea ice in a state of the art sea ice model

We present a modelling study of processes controlling the summer melt of the Arctic sea ice cover. We perform a sensitivity study and focus our interest on the thermodynamics at the ice–atmosphere and ice–ocean interfaces. We use the Los Alamos community sea ice model CICE, and additionally implement and test three new parametrization schemes: (i) a prognostic mixed layer; (ii) a three equation boundary condition for the salt and heat flux at the ice–ocean interface; and (iii) a new lateral melt parametrization. Recent additions to the CICE model are also tested, including explicit melt ponds, a form drag parametrization and a halodynamic brine drainage scheme. The various sea ice parametrizations tested in this sensitivity study introduce a wide spread in the simulated sea ice characteristics. For each simulation, the total melt is decomposed into its surface, bottom and lateral melt components to assess the processes driving melt and how this varies regionally and temporally. Because this study quantifies the relative importance of several processes in driving the summer melt of sea ice, this work can serve as a guide for future research priorities.

The impact of two coupled cirrus microphysics-radiation parameterizations on the temperature and specific humidity biases in the tropical tropopause layer in a climate model

The impact of two different coupled cirrus microphysics-radiation parameterizations on the zonally averaged temperature and humidity biases in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) of a Met Office climate model configuration is assessed. One parameterization is based on a linear coupling between a model prognostic variable, the ice mass mixing ratio, qi, and the integral optical properties. The second is based on the integral optical properties being parameterized as functions of qi and temperature, Tc, where the mass coefficients (i.e. scattering and extinction) are parameterized as nonlinear functions of the ratio between qi and Tc. The cirrus microphysics parameterization is based on a moment estimation parameterization of the particle size distribution (PSD), which relates the mass moment (i.e. second moment if mass is proportional to size raised to the power of 2 ) of the PSD to all other PSD moments through the magnitude of the second moment and Tc. This same microphysics PSD parameterization is applied to calculate the integral optical properties used in both radiation parameterizations and, thus, ensures PSD and mass consistency between the cirrus microphysics and radiation schemes. In this paper, the temperature-non-dependent and temperature-dependent parameterizations are shown to increase and decrease the zonally averaged temperature biases in the TTL by about 1 K, respectively. The temperature-dependent radiation parameterization is further demonstrated to have a positive impact on the specific humidity biases in the TTL, as well as decreasing the shortwave and longwave biases in the cloudy radiative effect. The temperature-dependent radiation parameterization is shown to be more consistent with TTL and global radiation observations.

Menopausal status: A possible predictive factor for recurrence in women with cancer of the uterine cervix without pelvic lymph node metastasis

Objectives: To evaluate risk factors for recurrence of carcinoma of the uterine cervix among women who had undergone radical hysterectomy without pelvic lymph node metastasis, while taking into consideration not only the classical histopathological factors but also sociodemographic, clinical and treatment-related factors. Study design: This was an exploratory analysis on 233 women with carcinoma of the uterine cervix (stages IB and IIA) who were treated by means of radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy, with free surgical margins and without lymph node metastases on conventional histopathological examination. Women with histologically normal lymph nodes but with micrometastases in the immunohistochemical analysis (AE1/AE3) were excluded. Disease-free survival for sociodemographic, clinical and histopathological variables was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the independent risk factors for recurrence. Results: Twenty-seven recurrences were recorded (11.6%), of which 18 were pelvic, four were distant, four were pelvic + distant and one was of unknown location. The five-year disease-free survival rate among the study population was 88.4%. The independent risk factors for recurrence in the multivariate analysis were: postmenopausal status (HR 14.1; 95% CI: 3.7-53.6; P < 0.001), absence of or slight inflammatory reaction (HR 7.9; 95% CI: 1.7-36.5; P = 0.008) and invasion of the deepest third of the cervix (FIR 6.1; 95% CI: 1.3-29.1; P = 0.021). Postoperative radiotherapy was identified as a protective factor against recurrence (HR 0.02; 95% CI: 0.001-0.25; P = 0.003). Conclusion: Postmenopausal status is a possible independent risk factor for recurrence even when adjusted for classical prognostic factors (such as tumour size, depth of turnout invasion, capillary embolisation) and treatment-related factors (period of treatment and postoperative radiotherapy status). (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expression of metallothionein in ameloblastoma. A regulatory molecule?

BACKGROUND: Ameloblastoma is a benign odontogenic tumor, exhibiting local invasiveness and high rate of recurrence. Metallothionein is a protein associated with tumorigenesis, serving as prognostic factor in different neoplasms. We are interested in mechanisms underlying ameloblastoma local invasiveness. Thus, we decided to analyze expression of metallothionein in this tumor. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An immunohistochemical evaluation of metallothionein in ameloblastoma was carried out. As control, we assessed expression of the same molecule in calcifying cystic odontogenic tumor (CCOT), a non-invasive odontogenic neoplasm with ameloblastomatous epithelium. RESULTS: We studied 12 cases of solid/multicystic ameloblastomas. Metallothionein was observed in all samples. This molecule was observed in columnar cells in the periphery and in central polyhedral cells. CCOT (four cases) also showed the presence of metallothionein. Morphometry of stained areas showed that expression of metallothionein in ameloblastoma was significantly higher compared to CCOT (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This protein may have an impact on ameloblastoma behavior. Metallothionein would act as a zinc reservoir for important proteases related to ameloblastoma biology, such as MMPs. This protein could also display pro-mitotic and anti-apoptotic features in the tumor. J Oral Pathol Med (2011) 40: 516-519

Laminin-derived peptide AG73 regulates migration, invasion, and protease activity of human oral squamous cell carcinoma cells through syndecan-1 and beta 1 integrin

Squamous cell carcinoma is a prevalent head and neck tumor with high mortality. We studied the role played by laminin alpha 1 chain peptide AG73 on migration, invasion, and protease activity of cells (OSCC) from human oral squamous cell carcinoma. Immunohistochemistry and immunofluorescence analyzed expression of laminin alpha 1 chain and MMP9 in oral squamous cells carcinoma in vivo and in vitro. Migratory activity of AG73-treated OSCC cells was investigated by monolayer wound assays and in chemotaxis chambers. AG73-induced invasion was assessed in Boyden chambers. Invasion depends on MMPs. Conditioned media from cells grown on AG73 was subjected to zymography. We searched for AG73 receptors related to these activities in OSCC cells. Immunofluorescence analyzed AG73induced colocalization of syndecan-1 and beta 1 integrin. Cells had these receptors silenced by siRNA, followed by treatment with AG73 and analysis of migration, invasion, and protease activity. Oral squamous cell carcinoma expresses laminin alpha 1 chain and MMP9. OSCC cells treated with AG73 showed increased migration, invasion, and protease activity. AG73 induced colocalization of syndecan-1 and beta 1 integrin. Knockdown of these receptors decreased AG73-dependent migration, invasion, and protease activity. Syndecan-1 and beta 1 integrin signaling downstream of AG73 regulate migration, invasion, and MMP production by OSCC cells.

High frequency of immature dendritic cells and altered in situ production of interleukin-4 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha in lung cancer

Introduction Antigen-presenting cells, like dendritic cells (DCs) and macrophages, play a significant role in the induction of an immune response and an imbalance in the proportion of macrophages, immature and mature DCs within the tumor could affect significantly the immune response to cancer. DCs and macrophages can differentiate from monocytes, depending on the milieu, where cytokines, like interleukin (IL)-4 and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) induce DC differentiation and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha induce DC maturation. Thus, the aim of this work was to analyze by immunohistochemistry the presence of DCs (S100+ or CD1a+), macrophages (CD68+), IL-4 and TNF-alpha within the microenvironment of primary lung carcinomas. Results Higher frequencies of both immature DCs and macrophages were detected in the tumor-affected lung, when compared to the non-affected lung. Also, TNF-alpha-positive cells were more frequent, while IL-4-positive cells were less frequent in neoplastic tissues. This decreased frequency of mature DCs within the tumor was further confirmed by the lower frequency of CD14-CD80+ cells in cell suspensions obtained from the same lung tissues analyzed by flow cytometry. Conclusion These data are discussed and interpreted as the result of an environment that does not oppose monocyte differentiation into DCs, but that could impair DC maturation, thus affecting the induction of effective immune responses against the tumor.

Effect of Age on Outcome of Reduced-Intensity Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Older Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia in First Complete Remission or With Myelodysplastic Syndrome

Purpose Acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) primarily afflict older individuals. Hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is generally not offered because of concerns of excess morbidity and mortality. Reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) regimens allow increased use of allogeneic HCT for older patients. To define prognostic factors impacting long-term outcomes of RIC regimens in patients older than age 40 years with AML in first complete remission or MDS and to determine the impact of age, we analyzed data from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR). Patients and Methods We reviewed data reported to the CIBMTR (1995 to 2005) on 1,080 patients undergoing RIC HCT. Outcomes analyzed included neutrophil recovery, incidence of acute or chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), nonrelapse mortality (NRM), relapse, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS). Results Univariate analyses demonstrated no age group differences in NRM, grade 2 to 4 acute GVHD, chronic GVHD, or relapse. Patients age 40 to 54, 55 to 59, 60 to 64, and >= 65 years had 2-year survival rates as follows: 44% (95% Cl, 37% to 52%), 50% (95% Cl, 41% to 59%), 34% (95% Cl, 25% to 43%), and 36% (95% Cl, 24% to 49%), respectively, for patients with AML (P = .06); and 42% (95% Cl, 35% to 49%), 35% (95% Cl, 27% to 43%), 45% (95% Cl, 36% to 54%), and 38% (95% Cl, 25% to 51%), respectively, for patients with MDS (P = .37). Multivariate analysis revealed no significant impact of age on NRM, relapse, DFS, or OS (all P>.3). Greater HLA disparity adversely affected 2-year NRM, DFS, and OS. Unfavorable cytogenetics adversely impacted relapse, DFS, and OS. Better pre-HCT performance status predicted improved 2-year OS. Conclusion With these similar outcomes observed in older patients, we conclude that older age alone should not be considered a contraindication to HCT.

P-Glycoprotein Expression, Tumor Weight, Age, and Relapse in Patients with Stage I and II Favorable-Histology Wilms` Tumor

Fifteen percent of patients with Wilms`` tumor (WT) experience relapse. It has been suggested that weight and age may affect the chances of relapse. Few studies have investigated the role, if any, between P-glycoprotein (P-gp) and relapse. The authors assessed the prognostic value of tumor weight and age at diagnosis and asked whether some other potential biological markers, specifically P-gp protein expression, had a prognostic value in favorable-histology WT. No association between age and relapse could be found. Patients with tumor weight >= a parts per thousand yen550 g were 6 times more likely to relapse, whereas P-gp expression was positive in 18/40 (45%%) of the patients, of which 10/12 (83.3%%) relapsed and 8/28 (28.6%%) did not. Further studies are necessary to elucidate whether or not P-gp is related to relapse in patients with histologically favorable Wilms`` tumor. If confirmed, the protein may be used in the future as a target for new drugs and treatments for this group of patients.

Cutpoint selection for discretizing a continuous covariate for generalized estimating equations

We consider consider the problem of dichotomizing a continuous covariate when performing a regression analysis based on a generalized estimation approach. The problem involves estimation of the cutpoint for the covariate and testing the hypothesis that the binary covariate constructed from the continuous covariate has a significant impact on the outcome. Due to the multiple testing used to find the optimal cutpoint, we need to make an adjustment to the usual significance test to preserve the type-I error rates. We illustrate the techniques on one data set of patients given unrelated hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Here the question is whether the CD34 cell dose given to patient affects the outcome of the transplant and what is the smallest cell dose which is needed for good outcomes. (C) 2010 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved.

Effects of Raloxifene on Ki-67 and CD34 Antigen Expression in Breast Cancer

Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of raloxifene on CD34 and Ki-67 antigen expression in breast cancer specimens from postmenopausal women. Methods: Sixteen postmenopausal patients with operable, stage II (>= 3 cm), estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer, who took 60 mg of raloxifene daily for 28 days, participated in this study. Immunohistochemistry was carried out in tumor samples prior to and following raloxifene treatment to evaluate CD34 and Ki-67 protein expression. Angiogenesis was quantified in 10 randomly selected fields per slide, and Ki-67-stained nuclei were counted in 1,000 cells per slide using an image capture and analysis system with 400 ! magnification. Student`s t test for paired samples was used for the statistical analysis of data. Statistical significance was established at p < 0.05. Results: The mean number of microvessels was 44.44 +/- 3.54 prior to raloxifene therapy and 22.63 +/- 1.61 following therapy (p < 0.001), and the mean percentage of Ki-67-stained nuclei was 19.28 +/- 8 1.61 and 12.13 +/- 8 1.48 prior to and following raloxifene treatment, respectively (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Raloxifene significantly reduces CD34 and Ki-67 protein expression in breast carcinoma in postmenopausal women. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Comparison of three vascular endothelial markers in the evaluation of microvessel density in breast cancer

Purpose: To evaluate the microvessel density by comparing the performance of anti-factor VIII-related antigen, anti-CD31 and, anti-CD34 monoclonal antibodies in breast cancer. Methods: Twenty-three postmenopausal women diagnosed with Stage II breast cancer submitted to definitive surgical treatment were evaluated. The monoclonal antibodies used were anti-factor VIII, anti-CD31 and anti-CD34. Microvessels were counted in the areas of highest microvessel density in ten random fields (200 x). The data were analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis nonparametric test (p < 0.05). Results: Mean microvessel densities with anti-factor VIII, anti-CD31 and anti-CD34 were 4.16 +/- 0.38, 4.09 +/- 0.23 and 6.59 +/- 0.42, respectively. Microvessel density as assessed by anti-CD34 was significantly greater than that detected by anti-CD31 or anti-factor VIII (p < 0.0001). There was no statistically significant difference between anti-CD31 and anti-factor VIII (p = 0.4889). Conclusion: The density of stained microvessels was greater and staining was more intense with anti-CD34 compared to anti-CD31 and anti-factor VII-related antigen.

The kidney in different stages of the cardiovascular continuum

Patients with chronic kidney disease are at higher risk of developing cardiovascular disease. The complex, interaction between the kidney and the cardiovascular system is incompletely understood, particularly at the early stages of the cardiovascular continuum. The overall aim of this thesis was to clarify novel aspects of the interplay between the kidney and the cardiovascular system at different stages of the cardiovascular continuum; from risk factors such as insulin resistance, inflammation and oxidative stress, via sub-clinical cardiovascular damage such as endothelial dysfunction and left ventricular dysfunction, to overt cardiovascular death. This thesis is based on two community-based cohorts of elderly, Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) and Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS). The first study, show that higher insulin sensitivity, measured with euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp technique was associated to improve estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in participants with normal fasting plasma glucose, normal glucose tolerance and normal eGFR. In longitudinal analyses, higher insulin sensitivity at baseline was associated with lower risk of impaired renal function during follow-up. In the second study, eGFR was inversely associated with different inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, serum amyloid A) and positively associated with a marker of oxidative stress (urinary F2-isoprostanes). In line with this, the urinary albumin/creatinine ratio was positively associated with these inflammatory markers, and negatively associated with oxidative stress. In study three, higher eGFR was associated with better endothelial function as assessed by the invasive forearm model. Further, in study four, higher eGFR was significantly associated with higher left ventricular systolic function (ejection fraction). The 5th study of the thesis shows that higher urinary albumin excretion rate (UAER) and lower eGFR was independently associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular mortality. Analyses of global model fit, discrimination, calibration, and reclassification suggest that UAER and eGFR add relevant prognostic information beyond established cardiovascular risk factors in participants without prevalent cardiovascular disease. Conclusion: this thesis show that the interaction between the kidney and the cardiovascular system plays an important role in the development of cardiovascular disease and that this interplay begins at an early asymptomatic stage of the disease process.

Association of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 with nephropathy, cardiovascular events, and total mortality in type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2) contribute to experimental diabetic kidney disease, a condition with substantially increased cardiovascular risk when present in patients. Therefore, we aimed to explore the levels of sTNFRs, and their association with prevalent kidney disease, incident cardiovascular disease, and risk of mortality independently of baseline kidney function and microalbuminuria in a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. In pre-defined secondary analyses we also investigated whether the sTNFRs predict adverse outcome in the absence of diabetic kidney disease. METHODS: The CARDIPP study, a cohort study of 607 diabetes patients [mean age 61 years, 44 % women, 45 cardiovascular events (fatal/non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke) and 44 deaths during follow-up (mean 7.6 years)] was used. RESULTS: Higher sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 were associated with higher odds of prevalent kidney disease [odd ratio (OR) per standard deviation (SD) increase 1.60, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.32-1.93, p < 0.001 and OR 1.54, 95 % CI 1.21-1.97, p = 0.001, respectively]. In Cox regression models adjusting for age, sex, glomerular filtration rate and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, higher sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 predicted incident cardiovascular events [hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase, 1.66, 95 % CI 1.29-2.174, p < 0.001 and HR 1.47, 95 % CI 1.13-1.91, p = 0.004, respectively]. Results were similar in separate models with adjustments for inflammatory markers, HbA1c, or established cardiovascular risk factors, or when participants with diabetic kidney disease at baseline were excluded (p < 0.01 for all). Both sTNFRs were associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATIONS: Higher circulating sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 are associated with diabetic kidney disease, and predicts incident cardiovascular disease and mortality independently of microalbuminuria and kidney function, even in those without kidney disease. Our findings support the clinical utility of sTNFRs as prognostic markers in type 2 diabetes.