Conditional maximum likelihood timing recovery: estimators and bounds

This paper is concerned with the derivation of new estimators and performance bounds for the problem of timing estimation of (linearly) digitally modulated signals. The conditional maximum likelihood (CML) method is adopted, in contrast to the classical low-SNR unconditional ML (UML) formulationthat is systematically applied in the literature for the derivationof non-data-aided (NDA) timing-error-detectors (TEDs). A new CML TED is derived and proved to be self-noise free, in contrast to the conventional low-SNR-UML TED. In addition, the paper provides a derivation of the conditional Cramér–Rao Bound (CRB ), which is higher (less optimistic) than the modified CRB (MCRB)[which is only reached by decision-directed (DD) methods]. It is shown that the CRB is a lower bound on the asymptotic statisticalaccuracy of the set of consistent estimators that are quadratic with respect to the received signal. Although the obtained boundis not general, it applies to most NDA synchronizers proposed in the literature. A closed-form expression of the conditional CRBis obtained, and numerical results confirm that the CML TED attains the new bound for moderate to high Eg/No.

Asymptotic equivalence between the unconditional maximum likelihood and the square-law nonlinearity symbol timing estimation

This paper provides a systematic approach to theproblem of nondata aided symbol-timing estimation for linearmodulations. The study is performed under the unconditionalmaximum likelihood framework where the carrier-frequencyerror is included as a nuisance parameter in the mathematicalderivation. The second-order moments of the received signal arefound to be the sufficient statistics for the problem at hand and theyallow the provision of a robust performance in the presence of acarrier-frequency error uncertainty. We particularly focus on theexploitation of the cyclostationary property of linear modulations.This enables us to derive simple and closed-form symbol-timingestimators which are found to be based on the well-known squaretiming recovery method by Oerder and Meyr. Finally, we generalizethe OM method to the case of linear modulations withoffset formats. In this case, the square-law nonlinearity is foundto provide not only the symbol-timing but also the carrier-phaseerror.

Séquelles radio-induites et tests prédictifs [Radiation-induced sequelae: toward an individual profile]

The impact of curative radiotherapy depends mainly on the total dose delivered homogenously in the targeted volume. Nevertheless, the dose delivery is limited by the tolerated dose of the surrounding healthy tissues. Two different side effects (acute and late) can occur during and after radiotherapy. Of particular interest are the radiation-induced sequelae due to their irreversibility and the potential impact on daily quality of life. In a population treated in one center with the same technique, it appears that individual radiosensitivity clearly exists. In the hypothesis that genetic is involved in this area of research, lymphocytes seem to be the tissue of choice due to easy accessibility. Recently, low percentage of CD4 and CD8 lymphocyte apoptosis were shown to be correlated with high grade of sequelae. In addition, recent data suggest that patients with severe radiation-induced late side effects possess four or more SNP in candidate genes (ATM, SOD2, TGFB1, XRCC1 et XRCC3) and low radiation-induced CD8 lymphocyte apoptosis in vitro.

Maximum likelihood estimation of position in GNSS

In this letter, we obtain the Maximum LikelihoodEstimator of position in the framework of Global NavigationSatellite Systems. This theoretical result is the basis of a completelydifferent approach to the positioning problem, in contrastto the conventional two-steps position estimation, consistingof estimating the synchronization parameters of the in-viewsatellites and then performing a position estimation with thatinformation. To the authors’ knowledge, this is a novel approachwhich copes with signal fading and it mitigates multipath andjamming interferences. Besides, the concept of Position–basedSynchronization is introduced, which states that synchronizationparameters can be recovered from a user position estimation. Weprovide computer simulation results showing the robustness ofthe proposed approach in fading multipath channels. The RootMean Square Error performance of the proposed algorithm iscompared to those achieved with state-of-the-art synchronizationtechniques. A Sequential Monte–Carlo based method is used todeal with the multivariate optimization problem resulting fromthe ML solution in an iterative way.

Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities that focus on the models' actual predictive ability in finite samples. The tests offer a simple way of evaluatingthe correct specification of predictive densities, either parametric or non-parametric.The results indicate that our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification in predictive densities. An empirical application to the Survey ofProfessional Forecasters and a baseline Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelshows the usefulness of our methodology.

A segmentation analysis and segments profile of budget air travelers

Many Spanish destinations are now considering low cost airlines (LCA) important for attracting tourists. However, there is little evidence on the characteristics travelers using low cost airlines and their flight preferences. Typical segmentation of air travelers are business versus leisure travelers and business versus tourist fares. The aim of this paper is to obtain a deeper understanding of the demand of LCA through a segmentation analysis, based on 808 foreign travelers who used Girona airport, that focuses on low cost travelers’ valuations of different flight attributes and trip related characteristics

Pulmonary embolism severity index and troponin testing for the selection of low-risk patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.

Summary Background: The combination of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and troponin testing could help physicians identify appropriate patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) for early hospital discharge. Methods: This prospective cohort study included a total of 567 patients from a single center registry with objectively confirmed acute symptomatic PE. On the basis of the PESI, each patient was classified into 1 of 5 classes (I to V). At the time of hospital admission, patients had troponin I (cTnI) levels measured. The endpoint of the study was all-cause mortality within 30 days after diagnosis. We calculated the mortality rates in 4 patient groups: group 1: PESI class I-II plus cTnI <0.1 ng mL(-1); group 2: PESI classes III-V plus cTnI <0.1 ng mL(-1); group 3: PESI classes I-II plus cTnI >/= 0.1 ng mL(-1); and group 4: PESI classes III-V plus cTnI >/= 0.1 ng mL(-1). Results: The study cohort had a 30-day mortality of 10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.6 to 12.5%). Mortality rates in the 4 groups were 1.3%, 14.2%, 0% and 15.4%, respectively. Compared to non-elevated cTnl, the low-risk PESI had a higher negative predictive value (NPV) (98.9% vs 90.8%) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) (0.1 vs 0.9) for predicting mortality. The addition of non-elevated cTnI to low-risk PESI did not improve the NPV or the NLR compared to either test alone. Conclusions: Compared to cTnl testing, PESI classification more accurately identified patients with PE who are at low risk of all-cause death within 30-days of presentation.

Predictive models for nanotoxicology: current challenges and future opportunities.

Characterizing the risks posed by nanomaterials is extraordinarily complex because these materials can have a wide range of sizes, shapes, chemical compositions and surface modifications, all of which may affect toxicity. There is an urgent need for a testing strategy that can rapidly and efficiently provide a screening approach for evaluating the potential hazard of nanomaterials and inform the prioritization of additional toxicological testing where necessary. Predictive toxicity models could form an integral component of such an approach by predicting which nanomaterials, as a result of their physico-chemical characteristics, have potentially hazardous properties. Strategies for directing research towards predictive models and the ancillary benefits of such research are presented here.

Predicting Non Return to Work after Orthopaedic Trauma: The Wallis Occupational Rehabilitation RisK (WORRK) Model.

BACKGROUND: Workers with persistent disabilities after orthopaedic trauma may need occupational rehabilitation. Despite various risk profiles for non-return-to-work (non-RTW), there is no available predictive model. Moreover, injured workers may have various origins (immigrant workers), which may either affect their return to work or their eligibility for research purposes. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive model that estimates the likelihood of non-RTW after occupational rehabilitation using predictors which do not rely on the worker's background. METHODS: Prospective cohort study (3177 participants, native (51%) and immigrant workers (49%)) with two samples: a) Development sample with patients from 2004 to 2007 with Full and Reduced Models, b) External validation of the Reduced Model with patients from 2008 to March 2010. We collected patients' data and biopsychosocial complexity with an observer rated interview (INTERMED). Non-RTW was assessed two years after discharge from the rehabilitation. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and calibration was evaluated with a calibration plot. The model was reduced with random forests. RESULTS: At 2 years, the non-RTW status was known for 2462 patients (77.5% of the total sample). The prevalence of non-RTW was 50%. The full model (36 items) and the reduced model (19 items) had acceptable discrimination performance (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.78 and 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.76, respectively) and good calibration. For the validation model, the discrimination performance was acceptable (AUC 0.73; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.77) and calibration was also adequate. CONCLUSIONS: Non-RTW may be predicted with a simple model constructed with variables independent of the patient's education and language fluency. This model is useful for all kinds of trauma in order to adjust for case mix and it is applicable to vulnerable populations like immigrant workers.

Evolution of superficial lake water temperature profile under diurnal radiative forcing

In lentic water bodies, such as lakes, the water temperature near the surface typically increases during the day, and decreases during the night as a consequence of the diurnal radiative forcing (solar and infrared radiation). These temperature variations penetrate vertically into the water, transported mainly by heat conduction enhanced by eddy diffusion, which may vary due to atmospheric conditions, surface wave breaking, and internal dynamics of the water body. These two processes can be described in terms of an effective thermal diffusivity, which can be experimentally estimated. However, the transparency of the water (depending on turbidity) also allows solar radiation to penetrate below the surface into the water body, where it is locally absorbed (either by the water or by the deployed sensors). This process makes the estimation of effective thermal diffusivity from experimental water temperature profiles more difficult. In this study, we analyze water temperature profiles in a lake with the aim of showing that assessment of the role played by radiative forcing is necessary to estimate the effective thermal diffusivity. To this end we investigate diurnal water temperature fluctuations with depth. We try to quantify the effect of locally absorbed radiation and assess the impact of atmospheric conditions (wind speed, net radiation) on the estimation of the thermal diffusivity. The whole analysis is based on the results of fiber optic distributed temperature sensing, which allows unprecedented high spatial resolution measurements (∼4 mm) of the temperature profile in the water and near the water surface.

A molecular profile of T-cell exhaustion in cancer.

The first gene profiling study of cancer-specific CD8+ T-cells demonstrates that lymphocyte dysfunction in cancer tissue is due to multiple molecular alterations,(1) similar as in "exhausted" T-cells in chronic infection.(2) The data suggest novel drug targets, and show that T-cell exhaustion is reversible and limited to anatomical sites of disease.

Epigenetic alterations and constitutive Wnt signaling are early events in the progression from Barrett's esophagus to esophageal adenocarcinoma

SUMMARY Barrett's esophagus (BE) is an acquired condition in which the normal squamous epithelium in the distal esophagus is replaced by a metaplastic columnar epithelium, as a complication of chronic gastroesophageal reflux. The clinical significance of this disease is its associated predisposition to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). EAC is a highly lethal disease. Better understanding of the pathogenesis of columnar metaplasia and its progression to cancer might allow the identification of biomarkers that can be used for early diagnosis, which will improve the patient survival. In this study, an improved protocol for methylation-sensitive single-strand conformation analysis, which is used to analyze promoter methylation, is proposed and a methylation-sensitive dot blot assay is described, which allows a rapid, easy, and sensitive detection of promoter methylation. Both methods were applied to study the methylation pattern of the APC promoter in histologically normal appearing gastric mucosa. The APC promoter showed monoallelic methylation, and because the methylated allele differed between the different gastric cell types, this corresponded to allelic exclusion. The APC methylation pattern was frequently altered in noimal gastric mucosa associated with neoplastic lesions, indicating that changes in the pattern of promoter methylation might precede the development of neoplasia, without accompanying histological manifestations. An epigenetic profile of 10 genes important in EAC was obtained in this study; 5 promoter genes (APC, TIMP3, TERT, CDKN2A and SFRP1) were found to be hypermethylated in the tumors. Furthermore, the promoter of APC, TIMP3 and TERT was frequently methylated in BE samples from EAC patients, but rarely in BE samples that did not progress to EAC. These three biomarkers might therefore be considered as potential predictive markers for increased EAC risk. Analysis of Wnt pathway alterations indicated that WNT2 ligand is overexpressed as early as the low-grade dysplastic stage and downregulation by promoter methylation of the SFRP1 gene occurrs already in the metaplastic lesions. Moreover, loss of APC expression is not the only factor involved in the activation of the Wnt pathway. These results indicate that a variety of biologic, mostly epigenetic events occurs very early in the carcinogenesis of BE. This new information might lead to improved early diagnosis of EAC and thus open the way to a possible application of these biomarkers in the prediction of increased EAC risk progression. RESUME L'oesophage de Barrett est une lésion métaplasique définie par le remplacement de la muqueuse malpighienne du bas oesophage par une muqueuse cylindrique glandulaire, suite à une agression chronique par du reflux gastro-esophagien. La plus importante signification clinique de cette maladie est sa prédisposition au développement d'un adénocarcinome. Le pronostic de l'adénocarcinome sur oesophage de Barrett est sombre. Seule une meilleure compréhension de la pathogenèse de l'épithélium métaplasique et de sa progression néoplasique permettrait l'identification de biomarqueurs pouvant être utilisés pour un diagnostic précoce ; la survie du patient serait ainsi augmentée. Dans cette étude, un protocole amélioré pour l'analyse de la méthylation par conformation simple brin est proposé. De plus, une technique d'analyse par dot blot permettant une détection rapide, facile et sensible de la méthylation d'un promoteur est décrite. Les deux méthodes ont été appliquées à l'étude de la méthylation du promoteur du gène APC dans des muqueuses gastriques histologiquement normales. Le promoteur APC a montré une méthylation monoallélique et, parce que les allèles méthylés différaient entre les différents types de cellules gastriques, celle-ci correspondait à une méthylation allélique exclusive. La méthylation d'APC a été trouvée fréquemment altérée dans la muqueuse gastrique normale associée à des lésions néoplasiques. Ceci indique que des changements dans la méthylation d'un promoteur peuvent précéder le développement d'une tumeur, et cela sans modification histologique. Un profil épigénétique des adénocarcinomes sur oesophage de Barrett a été obtenu dans cette étude. Cinq promoteurs (APC, TIMP3, TERT, CDKN2A et SFRP1) ont été trouvés hyperméthylés dans les tumeurs. Les promoteurs d'APC, TIMP3 et TERT étaient fréquemment méthylés dans l'épithélium métaplasique proche d'un adénocarcinome et rarement dans l'épithélium sans évolution néoplasique. Ces trois biomarkers pourraient par conséquent être considérés comme marqueur prédicatif d'un risque accru de développer une tumeur. L'analyse des altérations de la voie Wnt a montré que WNT2 est surexprimé déjà dans des dysplasies de bas-grade et que la dérégulation de SFRP1 par méthylation de son promoteur intervenait dans les lésions métaplasiques. Une perte d'expression d'APC n'est pas le seul facteur impliqué dans l'activation de cette voie. Ces résultats montrent qu'une grande diversité d'événements biologiques, principalement épigénétiques, surviennent très tôt lors de la carcinogenèse de l'oesophage de Barrett. Ces nouveaux éléments pourraient améliorer le diagnostic précoce et rendre possible l'application de ces biomarqueurs dans la prédiction d'un risque accru de développer un adénocarcinome sur un oesophage de Barrett.

Gait disturbances as specific predictive markers of the first fall onset in elderly people: a two-year prospective observational study

Falls are common in the elderly, and potentially result in injury and disability. Thus, preventing falls as soon as possible in older adults is a public health priority, yet there is no specific marker that is predictive of the first fall onset. We hypothesized that gait features should be the most relevant variables for predicting the first fall. Clinical baseline characteristics (e.g., gender, cognitive function) were assessed in 259 home-dwelling people aged 66 to 75 that had never fallen. Likewise, global kinetic behavior of gait was recorded from 22 variables in 1036 walking tests with an accelerometric gait analysis system. Afterward, monthly telephone monitoring reported the date of the first fall over 24 months. A principal components analysis was used to assess the relationship between gait variables and fall status in four groups: non-fallers, fallers from 0 to 6 months, fallers from 6 to 12 months and fallers from 12 to 24 months. The association of significant principal components (PC) with an increased risk of first fall was then evaluated using the area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC). No effect of clinical confounding variables was shown as a function of groups. An eigenvalue decomposition of the correlation matrix identified a large statistical PC1 (termed "Global kinetics of gait pattern"), which accounted for 36.7% of total variance. Principal component loadings also revealed a PC2 (12.6% of total variance), related to the "Global gait regularity." Subsequent ANOVAs showed that only PC1 discriminated the fall status during the first 6 months, while PC2 discriminated the first fall onset between 6 and 12 months. After one year, any PC was associated with falls. These results were bolstered by the ROC analyses, showing good predictive models of the first fall during the first six months or from 6 to 12 months. Overall, these findings suggest that the performance of a standardized walking test at least once a year is essential for fall prevention.

Predictive Factors for Intraocular Pressure Reduction after Phacoemulsification in Swiss Patients.

Background: Phacoemulsification is known to induce postoperative intraocular pressure (IOP) reduction, the degree of which varies according to glaucoma subtype and race. The authors set out to investigate the effect of cataract surgery on IOP, in a Swiss Caucasian population, and identify ocular predictive factors. Patients and Methods: 234 consecutive cases of 188 patients undergoing phacoemulsification between January 2011 and December 2012 were retrospectively reviewed and data collected. Exclusion criteria included acute angle closure, malignant glaucoma and pre-existing or subsequent glaucoma surgery. Pre- and post-operative visual acuity, IOP, gonioscopic findings, glaucoma medications, and laser treatments were recorded for eligible eyes. All eyes received the same postoperative regimen. Using multivariate analysis the predictive power of preoperative IOP, iridocorneal angle width, axial length on IOP reduction following phacoemulsification at months 3, 6 and 12 postoperatively were assessed. Eyes with narrow angles were compared against those with open angles. Results: 172 eyes of 121 patients met the inclusion criteria; mean age was 70.3 years (SD ± 10.7 years), with 77 males. Preoperatively median IOP was 16 mmHg (range 9-32 mmHg), mean number of glaucoma medications was 1.2 (SD ± 1.1), median visual acuity was 0.28 LogMAR (range 0-2.3LogMar). At 3 months post-operatively mean IOP decreased to 14 mmHg (p < 0.01) and remained statistically significantly reduced until 12 months, mean number of glaucoma medications was reduced to 1.0 and mean Snellen visual acuity increased to 0.8. Multivariate analysis revealed that pre-operative IOP and iridocorneal angle width (at 3 months) were significant predictive indicators of IOP reduction. At 12 months, IOP reduction was similar between open and narrow angle groups and total IOP reduction was no longer statistically significant. No intraoperative complications were recorded. Conclusions: Intraocular pressure reduction following phacoemulsification was greatest during the very early post-operative period, particularly in narrow angle patients. By one year, angle size was no longer predictive of IOP lowering, however pre-operative IOP and number of anti-glaucoma medications remained correlated with total IOP reduction.