Accuracy improvement of a demand forecasting model

This research concerns different statistical methods that assist to increase the demand forecasting accuracy of company X’s forecasting model. Current forecasting process was analyzed in details. As a result, graphical scheme of logical algorithm was developed. Based on the analysis of the algorithm and forecasting errors, all the potential directions for model future improvements in context of its accuracy were gathered into the complete list. Three improvement directions were chosen for further practical research, on their basis, three test models were created and verified. Novelty of this work lies in the methodological approach of the original analysis of the model, which identified its critical points, as well as the uniqueness of the developed test models. Results of the study formed the basis of the grant of the Government of St. Petersburg.

Dynamic carbon dioxide liquidization model

In literature CO 2 liquidization is well studied with steady state modeling. Steady state modeling gives an overview of the process but it doesn’t give information about process behavior during transients. In this master’s thesis three dynamic models of CO2 liquidization were made and tested. Models were straight multi-stage compression model and two compression liquid pumping models, one with and one without cold energy recovery. Models were made with Apros software, models were also used to verify that Apros is capable to model phase changes and over critical state of CO 2. Models were verified against compressor manufacturer’s data and simulation results presented in literature. From the models made in this thesis, straight compression model was found to be the most energy efficient and fastest to react to transients. Also Apros was found to be capable tool for dynamic liquidization modeling.

Assessment of the progressive nature of cell damage in the pilocarpine model of epilepsy

Pilocarpine-induced (320 mg/kg, ip) status epilepticus (SE) in adult (2-3 months) male Wistar rats results in extensive neuronal damage in limbic structures. Here we investigated whether the induction of a second SE (N = 6) would generate damage and cell loss similar to that seen after a first SE (N = 9). Counts of silver-stained (indicative of cell damage) cells, using the Gallyas argyrophil III method, revealed a markedly lower neuronal injury in animals submitted to re-induction of SE compared to rats exposed to a single episode of pilocarpine-induced SE. This effect could be explained as follows: 1) the first SE removes the vulnerable cells, leaving behind resistant cells that are not affected by the second SE; 2) the first SE confers increased resistance to the remaining cells, analogous to the process of ischemic tolerance. Counting of Nissl-stained cells was performed to differentiate between these alternative mechanisms. Our data indicate that different neuronal populations react differently to SE induction. For some brain areas most, if not all, of the vulnerable cells are lost after an initial insult leaving only relatively resistant cells and little space for further damage or cell loss. For some other brain areas, in contrast, our data support the hypothesis that surviving cells might be modified by the initial insult which would confer a sort of excitotoxic tolerance. As a consequence of both mechanisms, subsequent insults after an initial insult result in very little damage regardless of their intensity.

Innovation process development and business process integration - a multiple case study

The main objective of this study was to find out the bases for innovation model formulation in an existing organization based on cases. Innovation processes can be analyzed based on their needs and based on their emphasis on the business model development or R&D. The research was conducted in energy sector within one company by utilizing its projects as cases for the study. It is typical for the field of business that development is slow, although the case company has put emphasis on its innovation efforts. Analysis was done by identifying the cases’ needs and comparing them. The results were that because of the variances in the needs of the cases, the applicability of innovation process models varies. It was discovered that by dividing the process into two phases, a uniform model could be composed. This model would fulfill the needs of the cases and potential future projects as well.

Alloxan-induced diabetes delays repair in a rat model of closed tibial fracture

A closed fracture was performed on the left tibia of 3-month-old Wistar rats weighing 250 to 350 g that were either healthy (N = 24) or made diabetic with alloxan (N = 24) to investigate the effect of alloxan-induced diabetes on the course of bone fracture healing. Histomorphometric analysis of the fracture site was performed at 7, 14, 25, and 35 days. After 7 days, diabetic rats had significantly less cartilage (P = 0.045) and greater fibrous connective (P = 0.006) tissue formation at the fracture site compared to controls. In contrast, marked callus formation was seen in diabetic rats with significant osteogenesis (P = 0.011, P = 0.010, P = 0.010, respectively, for 14, 25, and 35 days) and chondrogenesis (P = 0.028, P = 0.033, P = 0.019) compared to controls. Radiographic analysis revealed a displaced fracture with poor bone fragment alignment and delayed consolidation at these times in the diabetic group. The levels of alkaline phosphatase were significantly higher in diabetic rats at 25 days (P = 0.009). These results suggest that the initial excessive formation of fibrous connective tissue associated with delay in chondrogenesis and osteogenesis may not provide suitable stability of the fractured site, contributing to the inappropriate alignment of fragments and an increase in the volume of callus in later stages of repair. The resulting displaced fracture in diabetic rats requires long periods for remodeling and complete bone consolidation.

Experimental model of heterotopic ossification in Wistar rats

Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a metaplastic biological process in which there is newly formed bone in soft tissues adjacent to large joints, resulting in joint mobility deficit. In order to determine which treatment techniques are more appropriate for such condition, experimental models of induced heterotopic bone formation have been proposed using heterologous demineralized bone matrix implants and bone morphogenetic protein and other tissues. The objective of the present experimental study was to identify a reliable protocol to induce HO in Wistar rats, based on autologous bone marrow (BM) implantation, comparing 3 different BM volumes and based on literature evidence of this HO induction model in larger laboratory animals. Twelve male Wistar albino rats weighing 350/390 g were used. The animals were anesthetized for blood sampling before HO induction in order to quantify serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP). HO was induced by BM implantation in both quadriceps muscles of these animals, experimental group (EG). Thirty-five days after the induction, another blood sample was collected for ALP determination. The results showed a weight gain in the EG and no significant difference in ALP levels when comparing the periods before and after induction. Qualitative histological analysis confirmed the occurrence of heterotopic ossification in all 12 EG rats. In conclusion, the HO induction model was effective when 0.35 mL autologous BM was applied to the quadriceps of Wistar rats.

A spheroid-based 3-D culture model for pancreatic cancer drug testing, using the acid phosphatase assay

Current therapy for pancreatic cancer is multimodal, involving surgery and chemotherapy. However, development of pancreatic cancer therapies requires a thorough evaluation of drug efficacy in vitro before animal testing and subsequent clinical trials. Compared to two-dimensional culture of cell monolayer, three-dimensional (3-D) models more closely mimic native tissues, since the tumor microenvironment established in 3-D models often plays a significant role in cancer progression and cellular responses to the drugs. Accumulating evidence has highlighted the benefits of 3-D in vitro models of various cancers. In the present study, we have developed a spheroid-based, 3-D culture of pancreatic cancer cell lines MIAPaCa-2 and PANC-1 for pancreatic drug testing, using the acid phosphatase assay. Drug efficacy testing showed that spheroids had much higher drug resistance than monolayers. This model, which is characteristically reproducible and easy and offers rapid handling, is the preferred choice for filling the gap between monolayer cell cultures and in vivo models in the process of drug development and testing for pancreatic cancer.

Adenovirus-mediated siRNA targeting TNF-α and overexpression of bone morphogenetic protein-2 promotes early osteoblast differentiation on a cell model of Ti particle-induced inflammatory response in vitro

Wear particles are phagocytosed by macrophages and other inflammatory cells, resulting in cellular activation and release of proinflammatory factors, which cause periprosthetic osteolysis and subsequent aseptic loosening, the most common causes of total joint arthroplasty failure. During this pathological process, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) plays an important role in wear-particle-induced osteolysis. In this study, recombination adenovirus (Ad) vectors carrying both target genes [TNF-α small interfering RNA (TNF-α-siRNA) and bone morphogenetic protein 2 (BMP-2)] were synthesized and transfected into RAW264.7 macrophages and pro-osteoblastic MC3T3-E1 cells, respectively. The target gene BMP-2, expressed on pro-osteoblastic MC3T3-E1 cells and silenced by the TNF-α gene on cells, was treated with titanium (Ti) particles that were assessed by real-time PCR and Western blot. We showed that recombinant adenovirus (Ad-siTNFα-BMP-2) can induce osteoblast differentiation when treated with conditioned medium (CM) containing RAW264.7 macrophages challenged with a combination of Ti particles and Ad-siTNFα-BMP-2 (Ti-ad CM) assessed by alkaline phosphatase activity. The receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand was downregulated in pro-osteoblastic MC3T3-E1 cells treated with Ti-ad CM in comparison with conditioned medium of RAW264.7 macrophages challenged with Ti particles (Ti CM). We suggest that Ad-siTNFα-BMP-2 induced osteoblast differentiation and inhibited osteoclastogenesis on a cell model of a Ti particle-induced inflammatory response, which may provide a novel approach for the treatment of periprosthetic osteolysis.

Lipoic acid, but not tempol, preserves vascular compliance and decreases medial calcification in a model of elastocalcinosis

Vascular calcification decreases compliance and increases morbidity. Mechanisms of this process are unclear. The role of oxidative stress and effects of antioxidants have been poorly explored. We investigated effects of the antioxidants lipoic acid (LA) and tempol in a model of atherosclerosis associated with elastocalcinosis. Male New Zealand white rabbits (2.5-3.0 kg) were fed regular chow (controls) or a 0.5% cholesterol (chol) diet+104 IU/day vitamin D2 (vitD) for 12 weeks, and assigned to treatment with water (vehicle, n=20), 0.12 mmol·kg-1·day-1 LA (n=11) or 0.1 mmol·kg-1·day-1 tempol (n=15). Chol+vitD-fed rabbits developed atherosclerotic plaques associated with expansive remodeling, elastic fiber disruption, medial calcification, and increased aortic stiffness. Histologically, LA prevented medial calcification by ∼60% and aortic stiffening by ∼60%. LA also preserved responsiveness to constrictor agents, while intima-media thickening was increased. In contrast to LA, tempol was associated with increased plaque collagen content, medial calcification and aortic stiffness, and produced differential changes in vasoactive responses in the chol+vitD group. Both LA and tempol prevented superoxide signals with chol+vitD. However, only LA prevented hydrogen peroxide-related signals with chol+vitD, while tempol enhanced them. These data suggest that LA, opposite to tempol, can minimize calcification and compliance loss in elastocalcionosis by inhibition of hydrogen peroxide generation.

CTLA4 enhances the osteogenic differentiation of allogeneic human mesenchymal stem cells in a model of immune activation

Allogeneic mesenchymal stem cells (allo-MSCs) have recently garnered increasing interest for their broad clinical therapy applications. Despite this, many studies have shown that allo-MSCs are associated with a high rate of graft rejection unless immunosuppressive therapy is administered to control allo-immune responses. Cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4 (CTLA4) is a co-inhibitory molecule expressed on T cells that mediates the inhibition of T-cell function. Here, we investigated the osteogenic differentiation potency of allo-MSCs in an activated immune system that mimics the in vivo allo-MSC grafting microenvironment and explored the immunomodulatory role of the helper T cell receptorCTLA4 in this process. We found that MSC osteogenic differentiation was inhibited in the presence of the activated immune response and that overexpression of CTLA4 in allo-MSCs suppressed the immune response and promoted osteogenic differentiation. Our results support the application of CTLA4-overexpressing allo-MSCs in bone tissue engineering.

Comparison of Model-Based Flow Rate Estimation Methods in Frequency-Converter-Driven Pumps and Fans

Fluid handling systems such as pump and fan systems are found to have a significant potential for energy efficiency improvements. To deliver the energy saving potential, there is a need for easily implementable methods to monitor the system output. This is because information is needed to identify inefficient operation of the fluid handling system and to control the output of the pumping system according to process needs. Model-based pump or fan monitoring methods implemented in variable speed drives have proven to be able to give information on the system output without additional metering; however, the current model-based methods may not be usable or sufficiently accurate in the whole operation range of the fluid handling device. To apply model-based system monitoring in a wider selection of systems and to improve the accuracy of the monitoring, this paper proposes a new method for pump and fan output monitoring with variable-speed drives. The method uses a combination of already known operating point estimation methods. Laboratory measurements are used to verify the benefits and applicability of the improved estimation method, and the new method is compared with five previously introduced model-based estimation methods. According to the laboratory measurements, the new estimation method is the most accurate and reliable of the model-based estimation methods.

Innovation Process and Organizational Adoption of Disruptive Innovation: Empirical Evidence from Finnish Bio-Economy Companies.

The thesis aims to build a coherent view and understanding of the innovation process and organizational technology adoption in Finnish bio-economy companies with a focus on innovations of a disruptive nature. Disruptive innovations are exceptional hence in order to create generalizations and a unified view of the subject the perspective is also on less radical innovations. Other interests of the thesis are how ideas are discovered and generated and how the nature of the innovation and size of the company affect the technology adoption and innovation process. The data was collected by interviewing six small and six large Finnish bio-economy companies. The results suggest companies regardless of size consider innovation as a core asset in the competitive markets. Organizations want to be considered innovators and early adopters yet these qualities are limited by certain, mainly resource-based factors. In addition the industry, scalability and Finland’s geographical location when seeking funding provide certain challenges. The innovation process may be considered relatively similar whether the idea or technology stems from an internal or external source suggesting the technology adoption process can in fact be linked to the innovation process theories. Thus the thesis introduces a new theoretical model which based on the results of the study and the theories of technology adoption and innovation process aims on characterizing how ideas and technology from both external and internal sources generate into innovations. The innovation process is in large bio-economy companies most often similar to or a modified version of the stage-gate model, while small companies generally have less structured processes. Nevertheless the more disruptive the innovation, the less it fits in the structured processes. This implies disruptive innovation cannot be put in a certain mould but it is rather processed case-by-case.

Model-based testing of software systems : functionality and performance

Software is a key component in many of our devices and products that we use every day. Most customers demand not only that their devices should function as expected but also that the software should be of high quality, reliable, fault tolerant, efficient, etc. In short, it is not enough that a calculator gives the correct result of a calculation, we want the result instantly, in the right form, with minimal use of battery, etc. One of the key aspects for succeeding in today's industry is delivering high quality. In most software development projects, high-quality software is achieved by rigorous testing and good quality assurance practices. However, today, customers are asking for these high quality software products at an ever-increasing pace. This leaves the companies with less time for development. Software testing is an expensive activity, because it requires much manual work. Testing, debugging, and verification are estimated to consume 50 to 75 per cent of the total development cost of complex software projects. Further, the most expensive software defects are those which have to be fixed after the product is released. One of the main challenges in software development is reducing the associated cost and time of software testing without sacrificing the quality of the developed software. It is often not enough to only demonstrate that a piece of software is functioning correctly. Usually, many other aspects of the software, such as performance, security, scalability, usability, etc., need also to be verified. Testing these aspects of the software is traditionally referred to as nonfunctional testing. One of the major challenges with non-functional testing is that it is usually carried out at the end of the software development process when most of the functionality is implemented. This is due to the fact that non-functional aspects, such as performance or security, apply to the software as a whole. In this thesis, we study the use of model-based testing. We present approaches to automatically generate tests from behavioral models for solving some of these challenges. We show that model-based testing is not only applicable to functional testing but also to non-functional testing. In its simplest form, performance testing is performed by executing multiple test sequences at once while observing the software in terms of responsiveness and stability, rather than the output. The main contribution of the thesis is a coherent model-based testing approach for testing functional and performance related issues in software systems. We show how we go from system models, expressed in the Unified Modeling Language, to test cases and back to models again. The system requirements are traced throughout the entire testing process. Requirements traceability facilitates finding faults in the design and implementation of the software. In the research field of model-based testing, many new proposed approaches suffer from poor or the lack of tool support. Therefore, the second contribution of this thesis is proper tool support for the proposed approach that is integrated with leading industry tools. We o er independent tools, tools that are integrated with other industry leading tools, and complete tool-chains when necessary. Many model-based testing approaches proposed by the research community suffer from poor empirical validation in an industrial context. In order to demonstrate the applicability of our proposed approach, we apply our research to several systems, including industrial ones.

Application of the Hsu model to soybean grain hydration

A comparative analysis of the theoretical-experimental study, developed by Hsu on the hydration of Amsoy 71 soybean grain, was performed through several soaking experiments using CD 202 soybean at 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 °C, measuring moisture content over time. The results showed that CD 202 soybean equilibrium moisture content, Xeq, does not depend on temperature and is 21% higher than that found by Hsu, suggesting that soybean cultivar exerts great influence on Xeq. The Hsu model was numerically solved and its parameters were adjusted by the least squares method, with maximum deviations of +/- 10% relative to the experimental values. The limiting step in the mass transfer process during hydration corresponds to water diffusion inside the grain, leading to radial moisture gradients that decrease over time and with an increase in temperature. Regardless of the soybean cultivar, diffusivity increases as temperature or moisture content increases. However, the values of this transport property for Amsoy 71 were superior to those of CD 202, very close at the beginning of hydration at 20 °C and almost three times higher at the end of hydration at 50 °C.

Drying of sicilian lemon residue: influence of process variables on the evaluation of the dietary fiber produced

In this study, the effect of the process variables of the air-drying of Sicilian lemon residues on some technological properties of the fibers produced was studied. The determination and modeling of desorption isotherms were used to establish the equilibrium moisture content at 60, 75, and 90 °C using the static method with 8 saturated salt solutions. The best fit was obtained with BET and GAB models. The drying process was conducted in a vertical tray dryer and delineated according to a central composite experimental design (2²) using the following as factors: air velocity (0.5, 0.75 and 1 m/s) and temperature (60, 75, and 90 °C), and it presented a good fit to the exponential model (R² > 99.9%). The experimental design responses evaluated were the technological properties of the fibers: water-holding, oil-holding, and swelling capacity. Since these properties were present in high levels, the lemon residues could be used to increase content of fibers in foods resulting in the addition of nutritional benefits for the consumers.