Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-Making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Finnisch-ugrisches Substrat in der Toponymie des Russischen Nordens : eine neue Einstellung zum alten Problem

Kirjallisuusarvostelu

The effectiveness of vocationally oriented multidisciplinary rehabilitation (ASLAK®) amongst public sector employees

In Finland, vocationally oriented medical rehabilitation (ASLAK®) is a common preventive rehabilitation measure with the primary goal of preserving and improving work ability. The ASLAK® programme has been used for almost 30 years, although limited data exist on its effectiveness. The aims of this study were to determine whether the increased risk of work disability predicts the participants’ likelihood to be granted ASLAK® rehabilitation and to assess the effectiveness of the programme in decreasing the risk of work disability and modifying health-risk behaviours. This study is a part of the on-going Finnish Public Sector Study conducted by the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Data on 53 416 employees (81% women) were gathered from employers’ records, national health registers and repeated survey responses. During the 5-year follow-up, increased levels of the risk factors for work disability did not predict participation in the rehabilitation programme. During the 2.8-year followup (range 0.04–5.0 years), the risk of long-term work disability (sick leave >90 days or retirement) overall or, more specifically, due to musculoskeletal or mental diseases did not differ between the rehabilitants who participated in ASLAK® in 1997–2005 and their propensity score matched controls. There was no evidence of ASLAK® being effective in changing participants’ health-risk behaviours or in improving perceived general or mental health. The results suggest that potential participant recognition, mainly taking place in occupational health care, may fail to identify those with a higher risk of work disability. No evidence on the effectiveness of the programme was found in the study cohort when measured by the selected indicators.

Word Equations and Related Topics. Independence, Decidability and Characterizations

The three main topics of this work are independent systems and chains of word equations, parametric solutions of word equations on three unknowns, and unique decipherability in the monoid of regular languages. The most important result about independent systems is a new method giving an upper bound for their sizes in the case of three unknowns. The bound depends on the length of the shortest equation. This result has generalizations for decreasing chains and for more than three unknowns. The method also leads to shorter proofs and generalizations of some old results. Hmelevksii’s theorem states that every word equation on three unknowns has a parametric solution. We give a significantly simplified proof for this theorem. As a new result we estimate the lengths of parametric solutions and get a bound for the length of the minimal nontrivial solution and for the complexity of deciding whether such a solution exists. The unique decipherability problem asks whether given elements of some monoid form a code, that is, whether they satisfy a nontrivial equation. We give characterizations for when a collection of unary regular languages is a code. We also prove that it is undecidable whether a collection of binary regular languages is a code.

Finnish Institutional Innovation Support Policies from Russian Entrepreneurs' Perspective: Establishing Cross-Border Technology Oriented Start-Up Firm

The purpose of this thesis is to study how Russian entrepreneurs perceive Finnish institutional environment and innovation support policies provided in the country, as well as to present a practical example in form of a case study of one technology oriented start-up firm which was established in Finland by Russian entrepreneurs. The empirical research of the thesis is conducted qualitatively in two parts. First part is conducted through online questionnaire with open questions in order to review the perceptions of Russian entrepreneurs in general. Second part is based on personal interviews with case company’s founders with the focus on the process of establishing the company in Finland. In the first part of the empirical research, five Russian start-up firms were contacted, and four responses were received. All of these responses were qualified for further analysis. The findings of the first part of the research reveal that Russian entrepreneurs have rather positive attitudes towards Finnish institutional innovation support policies. However, most of the entrepreneurs stated that they are unlikely to create their presence in Finland. As an outcome of the second part of the research, the process of establishing a case company in Finland is illustrated. In order to be able to establish companies in Finland, Russian entrepreneurs who have a permanent residence outside European Economic Area (EEA) are required to apply for a permission to perform business operations in the country. In addition, the established company must engage in improving the economical stand of the country by creating new work places, raising tax revenues, develop technologies and generate innovations in the country.

Corporate responsibility guaranteed by dialogue? Examining the relationship between nongovernmental organizations and business

The main objective of this doctoral dissertation is to examine the relationship between non-governmental organizations and business in the context of academic discourse, corporate responsibility discourse, and stakeholder dialogue. More specifically, motivated by the increasing emphasis on stakeholder dialogue as a tool for corporate responsibility and accountability, the aim is to critically assess the role of stakeholder dialogue as a self-regulatory mechanism, in particular from the perspective of foreign direct investments. The study comprises two parts; an introductory essay containing the research objectives, theoretical foundations and methodological choices, and four research articles that address one sub-objective: 1) to review the literature on NGO-business relations in business and society, management, and international business journals from 1998–2007; 2) to critically analyze the academic discourse on NGO-business relations; 3) to analyze the problematic aspects of sustainable foreign direct investments as a conceptual construct; and 4) to analyze the problematic aspects of stakeholder dialogue in connection with a foreign direct investment. The ontological and epistemological foundations of this dissertation build on the social constructionist view of reality. The dialogue in this study is viewed as a legitimacy bargaining process that is actively shaped by societal parties in discourse. Similarly, articulations of ‘partnership’ and ‘adversarial’ in NGO-business relations in academic business and society discourse are viewed as competing hegemonic interventions in the field. More specifically, the methods applied in the articles are literature review (Article 1), discourse theory (Article 2), conceptual analysis (Article 3), and case study with document analysis (Article 4). This dissertation has three main arguments and contributions. First, it is argued that the potential of stakeholder dialogue as a tool for corporate responsibility and accountability is inherently limited in both contexts. Second, the study shows the power implications of privileging partnership oriented NGO-business relations over adversarial ones, and of placing business at the centre of governance discourse. The third contribution is methodological: a new way to analyze academic discourse is presented by focusing on the problem setting of an article.

The knapsack problem approach in solving partial hedging problems of options

En option är ett finansiellt kontrakt som ger dess innehavare en rättighet (men medför ingen skyldighet) att sälja eller köpa någonting (till exempel en aktie) till eller från säljaren av optionen till ett visst pris vid en bestämd tidpunkt i framtiden. Den som säljer optionen binder sig till att gå med på denna framtida transaktion ifall optionsinnehavaren längre fram bestämmer sig för att inlösa optionen. Säljaren av optionen åtar sig alltså en risk av att den framtida transaktion som optionsinnehavaren kan tvinga honom att göra visar sig vara ofördelaktig för honom. Frågan om hur säljaren kan skydda sig mot denna risk leder till intressanta optimeringsproblem, där målet är att hitta en optimal skyddsstrategi under vissa givna villkor. Sådana optimeringsproblem har studerats mycket inom finansiell matematik. Avhandlingen "The knapsack problem approach in solving partial hedging problems of options" inför en ytterligare synpunkt till denna diskussion: I en relativt enkel (ändlig och komplett) marknadsmodell kan nämligen vissa partiella skyddsproblem beskrivas som så kallade kappsäcksproblem. De sistnämnda är välkända inom en gren av matematik som heter operationsanalys. I avhandlingen visas hur skyddsproblem som tidigare lösts på andra sätt kan alternativt lösas med hjälp av metoder som utvecklats för kappsäcksproblem. Förfarandet tillämpas även på helt nya skyddsproblem i samband med så kallade amerikanska optioner.

Building object-oriented software with the D-Bus messaging system

Object-oriented programming is a widely adopted paradigm for desktop software development. This paradigm partitions software into separate entities, objects, which consist of data and related procedures used to modify and inspect it. The paradigm has evolved during the last few decades to emphasize decoupling between object implementations, via means such as explicit interface inheritance and event-based implicit invocation. Inter-process communication (IPC) technologies allow applications to interact with each other. This enables making software distributed across multiple processes, resulting in a modular architecture with benefits in resource sharing, robustness, code reuse and security. The support for object-oriented programming concepts varies between IPC systems. This thesis is focused on the D-Bus system, which has recently gained a lot of users, but is still scantily researched. D-Bus has support for asynchronous remote procedure calls with return values and a content-based publish/subscribe event delivery mechanism. In this thesis, several patterns for method invocation in D-Bus and similar systems are compared. The patterns that simulate synchronous local calls are shown to be dangerous. Later, we present a state-caching proxy construct, which avoids the complexity of properly asynchronous calls for object inspection. The proxy and certain supplementary constructs are presented conceptually as generic object-oriented design patterns. The e ect of these patterns on non-functional qualities of software, such as complexity, performance and power consumption, is reasoned about based on the properties of the D-Bus system. The use of the patterns reduces complexity, but maintains the other qualities at a good level. Finally, we present currently existing means of specifying D-Bus object interfaces for the purposes of code and documentation generation. The interface description language used by the Telepathy modular IM/VoIP framework is found to be an useful extension of the basic D-Bus introspection format.

Chelyabinsk CHP-3 “locked power” problem solving

All over the world power systems become bigger and bigger every day. New equipment is installed, new feeders are constructed, new power units are installed. Some old elements of the network, however, are not changed in time. As a result, “bottlenecks” for capacity transmission can occur. By locked power problem the situation when a power plant has installed capacity exceeding the power it can actually deliver is usually meant. Regime, scheme or even technical restrictions-related issues usually cause this kind of problem. It is really important, since from the regime point of view it is typical decision to have a mobile capacity reserve, in case of malfunctions. And, what can be even more significant, power plant owner (JSC Fortum in our case) losses his money because of selling less electrical energy. The goal of master`s thesis is to analyze the current state of Chelyabinsk power system and the CHP-3 (Combined Heat and Power plant) in particular in relation with it`s ability to deliver the whole capacity of the CHP in it`s existing state and also taking into consideration the prospect of power unit 3 installation by the fourth quarter of 2010. The thesis contains some general information about the UPS of Russia, CPS of Ural, power system of Chelyabinsk and the Chelyabinsk region itself. Then the CHP-3 is described from technical point of view with it`s equipment observation. Regimes for the nowadays power system and for the system after the power unit 3 installation are reviewed. The problems occurring are described and, finally, a solution is offered.

Pk-yritysten ja korkeakoulujen (teknologia) T&K&I yhteistyön kehittäminen teollisuuden toimialoilla

The aim of this work is to develop entrepreneurship in university technology side. The means of SMEs is made in collaboration with the research development and innovation projects. At the same time supporting and enabling the growth of SMEs, the internationalization of higher education and increase student’s employability in SMEs. The aim is to create new startup companies with the help of co-operation both SMEs and universities, especially assist companies find the successor generation of change by improving interaction between the parties. The new growth oriented entrepreneurial business creation with help of SMEs will be seen more business supporting and opening more opportunities. Portfolio Entrepreneurship is a form of the company’s growth, even the size of company does not change so much. Portfolio Entrepreneurship is an alternative for entrepreneurs which do have possibilities to expand, but they do like keep it as family business. Variety can be seen in expansion if the SMEs have common interest to do so. Co-made projects, between SMEs and universities, are seen to be significantly affecting the wellbeing of society as a whole, and eve international level. Co-operation is considered to be also affected the quality of learning and teachers’ professional development. higher education supports the change of the supports to innovation when it is done with SMEs. Research material has been collected by interviewing the experts, who have already distinguished themselves in their field. Problem focused interviews as method gave the ways how the university students and SMEs can proceed and promote on industrial sector.

Eleven som aktør i dialog med kunst : ungdoms erfaring med kunstundervisningens innhold og metode i faget kunst og håndverk i norsk grunnskole

Avhandlingen har sitt utspring i mitt engasjement for elevers møte med kunst i grunnskolen i faget kunst og håndverk og mitt syn på ungdom som kompetente bidragsytere til forskningen om fenomener som angår deres liv. Elevene er informanter til, eller aktører i, forskning på fenomenet dialog med kunst. Dialog med kunst er her definert som en helhetlig prosess som innlemmer alt fra elevenes møte med visuelle kunstverk til deres eget skapende arbeid. At avhandlingens fagdidaktiske problemområde er elevers praktisk skapende virksomhet, knytter undersøkelsen til slöjdpedagogisk forskning. Avhandlingens overgripende hensikt er å bidra til utvikling av fagdidaktikken i kunst og håndverk med utgangspunkt i elevenes erfaringer med kunstundervisningens innhold og metode på ungdomsskoletrinnet. Studien består av kasusstudier på to ungdomsskoler. Data ble innsamlet igjennom intervjuer, deltakende observasjon, dokumenter, prosessbøker og foto av formingsprodukter. Ungdoms dialog med kunst i skolen blir analysert og fremstilt ut fra et erfart og et operasjonalisert perspektiv. Funnene speiles i ulike fagdidaktiske tendenser, det vil si ulike hovedoppfatninger i debatten om det moderne samfunn, og i et virksomhetsteoretisk perspektiv. Resultatene fra undersøkelsen utfordrer oss til en fagdidaktisk nyorientering når det gjelder ungdoms møte med kunstverk i skolen, i retning av et mer ungdomskulturelt innhold og relasjonelle kunstmøter som er narrative, tolkningsorientert, opplevelsesorientert, dialogiske og flerstemmige. Undersøkelsen viser at elevene liker det praktisk skapende arbeidet, men at undervisningen i sterkere grad bør ta i bruk digital kunnskap og handle om hvordan kunst kan brukes som utgangspunkt for skapende arbeid, og den bør legge til rette for det læringspotensialet som ligger i dialogen elevene imellom. Elevene liker en undervisning som ikke bare handler om estetiske virkemidler, materialer og teknikker, men også om kommunikasjon og ytringsfrihet. Resultatene viser at det frie skapende arbeid består av tre likeverdige aspekter: det individuelle, det kulturelle og det sosiale. Både funnene og avhandlingens virksomhetsteoretiske perspektiv kan bidra til diskursen om kreativitetsbegrepet og identitetskonstruksjon i vårt moderne samfunn. Virksomhetssystemet blir i denne avhandlingen utviklet til en teori for skapende arbeid i faget kunst og håndverk, et overgripende fagdidaktisk rammeverk for bild/bildkonst og slöjdfaget satt inn i et nordisk utdanningsperspektiv.