Planning the unplanned City: The story of the gold coast

One of the distinctive features of Gold Coast urbanisation is its historically ad hoc approach to development with little or no strategic planning to guide it. Many have commented on the lack of planning on the Gold Coast calling it ‘an experiment in freedom’ or ‘free enterprise city’. Following a major restructuring of the Queensland’s local councils, the 1990s witnessed a shift from ad hoc decision making to more systematic planning on the Gold Coast. Understanding the past is important for shaping the future. This paper reviews the history of regulatory planning on the Gold Coast, encompassing decisions affecting the form and development of its earliest settlements through to its periods of greatest construction and most streamlined decision–making. It focuses mainly on past planning processes, the problems identified in each planning exercise and the interventions introduced, asking whether these were implemented or not and why. The paper positions the Gold Coast as a physical embodiment of this history of decision making, assessing the effects on the city as a whole of specific measures either affording freedoms or insisting on accountability to various levels of regulation. It examines how the absence of some planning measures influenced the form of the city and its internal arrangements and considers how the shift from ad hoc decision making towards more systematic planning efforts affected the city’s urbanisation. The lessons that the Gold Coast example provides will resonate with places elsewhere in Australia and the world, if not always in scale definitely in substance.

Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

Neighbourliness and Australia’s contribution to regional migration strategies for climate displacement in the Pacific

The prospect of widespread displacement in the Pacific as a result of climate change is becoming increasingly likely and it is possible that many will eventually need to relocate to other countries. Regional migration strategies not only offer the potential to minimise the harms of relocation, while acknowledging existing relationships of friendship and regional cooperation. This article examines the use of the language of ‘neighbourliness’ in Australia’s regional climate change strategies and argues that, while it expresses friendship, such language can also be employed to avoid the creation of stronger obligations. The article considers the international doctrine of good neighbourliness and concludes that, while international legal obligations may not yet exist, Australia should nonetheless begin planning for regional migration within the Pacific to allow people to migrate with dignity.

Gone with the Wind? : Immigrant Women and Transnational Everyday Life in Finland

Increased mass migration, as a result of economic hardship, natural disasters and wars, forces many people to arrive on the shores of cultures very different from those they left. How do they manage the legacy of the past and the challenges of their new everyday life? This is a study of immigrant women living in transnational families that act and communicate across national borders on a near-daily basis. The research was carried out amongst immigrant women who were currently living in Finland. The research asks how transnational everyday life is constructed. As everyday life, due to its mundane nature, is difficult to operationalise for research purposes, mixed data collection methods were needed to capture the passing moments that easily become invisible. Thus, the data were obtained from photographic diaries (459 photographs) taken by the research participants themselves. Additionally, stimulated recall discussions, structured questionnaires and participant observation notes were used to complement the photographic data. A tool for analysing the activities devealed in the data was created on the assumption that a family is an active unit that accommodates the current situation in which it is embedded. Everyday life activities were analysed emphasizing social, modal and spatial dimensions. Important daily moments were placed on a continuum: for me , for immediate others and with immediate others . They portrayed everyday routines and exceptions to it. The data matrix was developed as part of this study. The spatial dimensions formed seven units of activity settings: space for friendship, food, resting, childhood, caring, space to learn and an orderly space. Attention was also paid to the accommodative nature of activities; how women maintain traditions and adapt to Finnish life or re-create new activity patterns. Women s narrations revealed the importance of everyday life. The transnational chain of women across generations and countries, comprised of the daughters, mothers and grandmothers was important. The women showed the need for information technology in their transnational lives. They had an active relationship to religion; the denial or importance of it was obvious. Also arranging one s life in Finnish society was central to their narrations. The analysis exposed everyday activities, showed the importance of social networks and the uniqueness of each woman and family. It revealed everyday life in a structured way. The method of analysis that evolved in this study together with the research findings are of potential use to professionals, allowing the targeting of interventions to improve the everyday lives of immigrants.

Max and Martha Liebermann with unidentified group at a celebration for Max Liebermann at the Akademie der Kunste, Berlin Portraits; Groups

Verso: "Liebermann Feierlichkeiten in der Akademie der Kuenste. In der Mitte: Max Liebermann und Frau. Becker."

Development and feasibility testing of an education program to improve knowledge and self-care among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patients with heart failure

Background/Aim There is a 70% higher age-adjusted incidence of heart failure (HF) amongst Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, three times more hospitalisations and twice as many deaths than non-Aboriginal people. There is a need to develop holistic yet individualised approaches in accord with the values of Aboriginal community healthcare to support patient education and self-care. The aim of this study was to re-design an existing HF educational resource (Fluid Watchers-Pacific Rim©) to be culturally safe for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, working in collaboration with the local community, and to conduct feasibility testing. Methods This study was conducted in two phases and utilised a mixed methods approach (qualitative and quantitative). Phase 1 of this study used action research methods to develop a culturally safe electronic resource to be provided to Aboriginal HF patients via a tablet computer. A HF expert panel adapted the existing resource to ensure it was evidence-based and contained appropriate language and images that reflects Aboriginal culture. A stakeholder group (which included Aboriginal workers and HF patients, as well as researchers and clinicians) then reviewed the resources and changes were made accordingly. In Phase 2, the new resource was tested on a sample of Aboriginal HF patients to assess feasibility and acceptability. Patient knowledge, satisfaction and self-care behaviours were measured using a before and after design with validated questionnaires. As this was a pilot test to determine feasibility, no statistical comparisons were made. Results - Phase 1: Throughout the process of resource development, two main themes emerged from the stakeholder consultation. These were the importance of identity, meaning that it was important to ensure that the resource accurately reflected the local community, with the appropriate clothing, skin tone and voice. The resource was adapted to reflect this and of the local community voiced the recordings for the resource. The other theme was comprehension; images were important and all text was converted to the first person and used plain language. - Phase 2: Five Aboriginal participants, mean age 61.6 ± 10.0 years, with NYHA Class III and IV heart failure were enrolled. Participants reported a high level of satisfaction with the resource (83.0%). HF knowledge (percentage of correct responses) increased from 48.0 ± 6.7% to 58.0 ± 9.7%, a 20.8% increase and results of the self-care index indicated that the biggest change was in patient confidence for self-care with a 95% increase in confidence score (46.7 ± 16.0 to 91.1 ± 11.5). Changes in management and maintenance scores varied between9275 patients. Conclusion By working in collaboration with HF experts, Aboriginal researchers and patients, a culturally safe HF resource has been developed for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patients. Engaging Aboriginal researchers, capacity-building, and being responsive to local systems and structures enabled this pilot study to be successfully completed with the Aboriginal community and positive participant feedback demonstrated that the methodology used in this study was appropriate and acceptable; participants were able to engage with willingness and confidence.

Painted portrait of Hirsch (Zwiven Israel) Oppenheimer with his wife Johanna (Chana bat Schmuel) nee Enoch. Portraits Couples

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Grey Mackerel (Scomberomorus semifasciatus) microsatellite genotypes (nine loci) representing twelve regions along Australia's northern coastline from the eastern coast of Queensland to the western coast of Western Australia.

Scomberomorus semifasciatus is an Australian endemic found in tropical, coastal waters from eastern to western Australia. Commercial and recreational exploitation is common and regulated by state-based authorities. This study used mitochondrial DNA sequence and microsatellite markers to elucidate the population structure of Scomberomorus semifasciatus collected from twelve, equidistant sampling locations. Samples (n=544) were genotyped with nine microsatellite loci, and 353 were sequenced for d-loop (384 bp) and ATP (800bp) mitochondrial DNA gene regions. Combined interpretation of microsatellite and mtDNA data identified four genetic stocks of S. semifasciatus: Western Australia, northwest coast of the Northern Territory, Gulf of Carpentaria and the east coast of Queensland. Connectivity among stocks across northern Australia from the Northern Territory to the east coast of Queensland was high, but in contrast, there was a clear genetic break between populations in Western Australia compared to the rest of northern Australia. This indicates a restriction to gene flow possibly associated with suboptimal habitat along the Kimberley coast (northwestern Australia). The appropriate scale of management for this species corresponds to the jurisdictions of the three Australian states, except that the Gulf of Carpentaria stock should be co-managed by authorities in Queensland and Northern Territory.

Negligible evidence for regional genetic population structure for two shark species Rhizoprionodon acutus (Rüppell, 1837) and Sphyrna lewini (Griffith & Smith, 1834) with contrasting biology

Biodiversity of sharks in the tropical Indo-Pacific is high, but species-specific information to assist sustainable resource exploitation is scarce. The null hypothesis of population genetic homogeneity was tested for scalloped hammerhead shark (Sphyrna lewini, n = 237) and the milk shark (Rhizoprionodon acutus, n = 207) from northern and eastern Australia, using nuclear (S. lewini, eight microsatellite loci; R. acutus, six loci) and mitochondrial gene markers (873 base pairs of NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4). We were unable to reject genetic homogeneity for S. lewini, which was as expected based on previous studies of this species. Less expected were similar results for R. acutus, which is more benthic and less vagile than S. lewini. These features are probably driving the genetic break found between Australian and central Indonesian R. acutus (F-statistics; mtDNA, 0.751–0.903, respectively; microsatellite loci, 0.038–0.047 respectively). Our results support the spatially homogeneous monitoring and management plan for shark species in Queensland, Australia.

Migration of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) from Australasian feeding grounds inferred from genetic analyses

Coastal seagrass habitats in tropical and subtropical regions support aggregations of resident green turtles (Chelonia mydas) from several genetically distinct breeding populations. Migration of individuals to their respective dispersed breeding sites provides a complex pattern of migratory connectivity among nesting and feeding habitats of this species. An understanding of this pattern is important in regions where the persistence of populations is under threat from anthropogenic impacts. The present study uses mitochondrial DNA and mixed-stock analyses to assess the connectivity among seven feeding grounds across the north Australian coast and adjacent areas and 17 genetically distinct breeding populations from the Indo-Pacific region. It was hypothesised that large and geographically proximate breeding populations would dominate at nearby feeding grounds. As expected, each sampled feeding area appears to support multiple breeding populations, with two aggregations dominated by a local breeding population. Geographic distance between breeding and feeding habitat strongly influenced whether a breeding population contributed to a feeding ground (wi = 0.654); however, neither distance nor size of a breeding population was a good predictor of the extent of their contribution. The differential proportional contributions suggest the impact of anthropogenic mortality at feeding grounds should be assessed on a case-by-case basis.

Evidence for extensive population structure in the white-spotted eagle ray within the Indo-Pacific inferred from mitochondrial gene sequences

The white-spotted eagle ray Aetobatus narinari is a species complex that occurs circumglobally throughout warm-temperate waters. Aetobatus narinari is semi-pelagic and large (up to 300 cm disc width), suggesting high dispersal capabilities and gene flow on a wide spatial scale. Sequence data from two mitochondrial genes, cytochrome b (cytb) and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4 (ND4), were used to determine the genetic variability within and among 18 sampling locations in the central Indo-Pacific biogeographical region. Populations in the Indo-Pacific were highly genetically structured with c. 70% of the total genetic variation found among three geographical regions (East China Sea, Southeast Asia and Australia). FST was 0.64 for cytb and 0.53 for ND4, with φST values being even larger, that is, 0.78 for cytb and 0.65 for ND4. This high-level genetic partitioning provides strong evidence against extensive gene flow in A. narinari. The degree of genetic population structuring in the Indo-Pacific was similar to that found on a global scale. Global FST was 0.63 for cytb and 0.57 for ND4, and global φST values were 0.94 for cytb and 0.82 for ND4. This suggests that the A. narinari complex may be more speciose than the two or three species proposed to date. Further sampling and genetic analyses are likely to uncover the ‘evolutionarily significant’ and ‘management’ units that are critical to determine the susceptibilities of individual populations to regional fishing pressures and to provide advice on management options. Network analyses showed a close genetic relationship between haplotypes from the central Indo-Pacific and South Africa, providing support for a proposed dispersal pathway from the possible centre of origin of the A. narinari species complex in the Indo-Pacific into the Atlantic Ocean.

New Year's greetings postcard with portrait of Sigmund and Toni Feist with two unidentified boys (perhaps students at Feist's private school in Mainz) Portraits; Groups

Printed: Prosit Neujahr!; Handwritten dedication

Professor Lichtenberger, German literature professor at the Sorbonne, with Toni and Sigmund Feist Portraits; Groups

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Adolf and Henny Molling nee Meyerhof with Benno Molling's wife Sophie Molling nee Reuben and an unknown woman; Bad Nauheim, Germany.

Postcard written to Therese Gottschalk nee Molling at Norderney

Portrait of Liesel (Elizabeth) Gottschalk with her grandfather Adolf Molling; Germany.

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