使用概率规则文法评估人机界面可用性

提出一种在界面系统设计规约的基础上使用的可用性评估方法.首先使用有限状态自动机抽象界面系统设计,根据概率规则文法对有限状态自动机的状态转换概率进行预测;然后结合用户的熟练程度提出了界面可用性评估算法;最后讨论了一个手机界面的可用性计算实例.文中方法能够在界面系统生命周期的早期使用,以较早地对不同设计方案进行比较,降低开发风险.

飞行器多任务在线实时航迹规划

针对不确定环境中的飞行器多任务航迹规划问题展开研究,提出了一种基于飞行路线图的两阶段航迹规划框架,航迹规划分成学习和查询两个阶段,环境信息和飞行器约束条件分阶段体现.在该框架下,通过采用一种混合多任务动态航迹规划方法,分别在稀疏路线图上实时搜索初始航迹和在精细路线图上启发式搜索后备航迹,能够在具有预先未知威胁、可变飞行任务的战场环境中实时生成三维航迹.

Color to Gray: Visual Cue Preservation

Both commercial and scientific applications often need to transform color images into gray-scale images, e. g., to reduce the publication cost in printing color images or to help color blind people see visual cues of color images. However, conventional color to gray algorithms are not ready for practical applications because they encounter the following problems: 1) Visual cues are not well defined so it is unclear how to preserve important cues in the transformed gray-scale images; 2) some algorithms have extremely high time cost for computation; and 3) some require human-computer interactions to have a reasonable transformation. To solve or at least reduce these problems, we propose a new algorithm based on a probabilistic graphical model with the assumption that the image is defined over a Markov random field. Thus, color to gray procedure can be regarded as a labeling process to preserve the newly well-defined visual cues of a color image in the transformed gray-scale image. Visual cues are measurements that can be extracted from a color image by a perceiver. They indicate the state of some properties of the image that the perceiver is interested in perceiving. Different people may perceive different cues from the same color image and three cues are defined in this paper, namely, color spatial consistency, image structure information, and color channel perception priority. We cast color to gray as a visual cue preservation procedure based on a probabilistic graphical model and optimize the model based on an integral minimization problem. We apply the new algorithm to both natural color images and artificial pictures, and demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms representative conventional algorithms in terms of effectiveness and efficiency. In addition, it requires no human-computer interactions.

Supervised Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model for Dimensionality Reduction

The Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM) has been identified to be an effective probabilistic approach for dimensionality reduction because it can obtain a low-dimensional manifold of a data set in an unsupervised fashion. Consequently, the GP-LVM is insufficient for supervised learning tasks (e. g., classification and regression) because it ignores the class label information for dimensionality reduction. In this paper, a supervised GP-LVM is developed for supervised learning tasks, and the maximum a posteriori algorithm is introduced to estimate positions of all samples in the latent variable space. We present experimental evidences suggesting that the supervised GP-LVM is able to use the class label information effectively, and thus, it outperforms the GP-LVM and the discriminative extension of the GP-LVM consistently. The comparison with some supervised classification methods, such as Gaussian process classification and support vector machines, is also given to illustrate the advantage of the proposed method.

Potential Landscape and Flux Framework of Nonequilibrium Networks: Robustness, Dissipation, and Coherence of Biochemical Oscillations

We established a theoretical framework for studying nonequilibrium networks with two distinct natures essential for characterizing the global probabilistic dynamics: the underlying potential landscape and the corresponding curl flux. We applied the idea to a biochemical oscillation network and found that the underlying potential landscape for the oscillation limit cycle has a distinct closed ring valley (Mexican hat-like) shape when the fluctuations are small. This global landscape structure leads to attractions of the system to the ring valley.

ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-PHASE STRUCTURE SEMINVARIANTS IN THE SINGLE ISOMORPHOUS REPLACEMENT CASE - AN APPLICATION OF HAUPTMANS DISTRIBUTION

A method for estimating the one-phase structure seminvariants (OPSSs) having values of 0 or pi has been proposed on the basis of the probabilistic theory of the three-phase structure invariants for a pair of isomorphous structures [Hauptman (1982). Acta Cryst. A38, 289-294]. The test calculations using error-free diffraction data of protein cytochrome c(550) and its PtCl42- derivative show that reliable estimates of a number of the OPSSs can be obtained. The reliability of the estimation increases with the increase of the differences between diffraction intensities of the native protein and its heavy-atom derivative. A means to estimate the parameters of the distribution from the diffraction ratio is suggested.

基于障碍预估与概率方向权值的移动机器人动态路径规划

主要研究了移动机器人在未知动态环境中的路径规划问题.提出一种将障碍预估与概率方向权值相结合的动态路径规划新方法.该方法将卡尔曼滤波引入到规划算法中,使得对障碍物运动状态的实时有效预估成为可能.同时,为实现移动机器人的实时路径规划,提出一种新的概率方向权值方法,基于周期规划将障碍物与目标信息进行融合,能够有效处理室内环境下对于障碍物的速度和运动轨迹均未知的动态路径规划问题.仿真结果以及基于SmartROB2移动机器人平台所进行的实验结果验证了该方法的有效性和实用性.

自主移动机器人足球比赛视觉定位方法综述

综述了RoboCup足球赛中全自主移动机器人基于视觉的定位技术,包括机器人自定位和多机器人协作物体定位.介绍了定位技术的发展情况与分类.从机器人环境构建形式的不同以及先验位姿和概率方法的应用与否等方面,系统地分析和比较了各种自定位方法.对于多机器人协作物体定位,阐述了静态方法和动态跟踪方法.总结了定位过程中需要重点研究的传感器模型构建、图像处理、特征匹配以及协作过程涉及的相关问题.最后就视觉定位存在的问题和技术发展趋势进行了讨论.

基于启发式节点增强策略的PRM路径规划方法

针对一般的PRM方法用于移动机器人对复杂地形路径搜索存在的缺陷 ,本文对PRM方法进行了改进 ,提出了一套基于启发式的节点增强的策略 ,提高了PRM方法节点增强阶段对环境的适应性 .此外 ,本文建立了相应的仿真实验系统对策略的有效性进行了实验与分析

油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

三峡库区滑坡的时空分布、成因及其预报模式

Landslides are widely distributed along the main stream banks of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Especially with the acceleration of the human economic activities in the recent 30 years, the occurrence of landslide hazards in the local area trends to be more serious. Because of the special geological, topographic and climatic conditions of the Three Gorges areas, many Paleo-landslides are found along the gentle slope terrain of the population relocation sites. Under the natural condition, the Paleo-landslides usually keep stable. The Paleo-landslides might revive while they are influenced under the strong rainfall, water storage and migration engineering disturbance. Therefore, the prediction and prevention of landslide hazards have become the important problem involving with the safety of migration engineering of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.The past research on the landslides of the Three Gorges area is mainly concentrated on the stability analysis of individual landslide, and importance was little attached to the knowledge on the geological environment background of the formation of regional landslides. So, the relationship between distribution and evolution of landslides and globe dynamic processes was very scarce in the past research. With further study, it becomes difficult to explain the reasons for the magnitude and frequency of major geological hazards in terms of single endogenic or exogenic processes. It is possible to resolve the causes of major landslides in the Three Gorges area through the systematic research of regional tectonics and river evolution history.In present paper, based on the view of coupling of earth's endogenic and exogenic processes, the author researches the temporal and spacial distribution and formation evolution of major landslides(Volume^lOOX 104m3) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area through integration of first-hand sources statistics, .geological evolution history, isotope dating and numerical simulation method etc. And considering the main formation factors of landslides (topography, geology and rainfall condition), the author discusses the occurrence probability and prediction model of rainfall induced landslides.The distribution and magnitude of Paleo-landslides in the Three Gorges area is mainly controlled by lithology, geological structure, bank slope shape and geostress field etc. The major Paleo-landslides are concentrated on the periods 2.7-15.0 X 104aB.R, which conrresponds to the warm and wettest Paleoclimate stages. In the same time, the Three Gorges area experiences with the quickest crust uplift phase since 15.0X 104aB.P. It is indicated that the dynamic factor of polyphase major Paleo-landslides is the coupling processes of neotectonic movement and Quaternary climate changes. Based on the numerical simulation results of the formation evolution of Baota landslide, the quick crust uplift makes the deep river incision and the geostress relief causes the rock body of banks flexible. Under the strong rainfall condition, the pore-water pressure resulted from rain penetration and high flood level can have the shear strength of weak structural plane decrease to a great degree. Therefore, the bank slope is easy to slide at the slope bottom where shear stress concentrates. Finally, it forms the composite draught-traction type landslide of dip stratified rocks.The susceptibility idea for the rainfall induced landslide is put forward in this paper and the degree of susceptibility is graded in terms of the topography and geological conditions of landslides. Base on the integration with geological environment factors and rainfall condition, the author gives a new probabilistic prediction model for rainfall induced landslides. As an example from Chongqing City of the Three Gorges area, selecting the 5 factors of topography, lithology combination, slope shape, rock structure and hydrogeology and 21 kinds of status as prediction variables, the susceptibility zonation is carried out by information methods. The prediction criterion of landslides is established by two factors: the maximum 24 hour rainfall and the antecedent effective precipitation of 15 days. The new prediction model is possible to actualize the real-time regional landslide prediction and improve accuracy of landslide forecast.

5-9岁儿童对常见病病因及其致病不确定性的认知发展

Research on children's naive concepts has previously tended to focus on the domains of physics and psychology, but more recently attention has turned to conceptual development in biology as a core domain of knowledge. Because of its familiarity, illness has been a popular topic for researchers in this domain. However, they have only studied the children’s understanding of its causes. Other aspects of illness, such as treatment and prognosis, have received little attention. This research addresses the development of 5- to 9-year-old children’s understanding of the causes of illness and their probabilities via open-ended and forced choice interviews. The results of this research are: 1) Most of the 5- to 7-year-old children used behavioral causes to explain illness, and the 9-year-old children primarily used biological causes to interpret illness. With age, more and more children selected psychological causes to explain illness. 2) Pre-school children did not over-generalize contagions to non-contagious illnesses. They used behavioral and biological causes to explain contagious illnesses. For non-contagious illnesses, they chose only behavioral causes. 3) Most of the children used only one kind of cause to explain illness. 4) Some preschool-aged children viewed outcomes of familiar causes of illness as probabilistic. With age, more and more could make uncertain predictions of illness. 5) The children’s understanding of the causes’ probabilities appeared to be based on naïve biology. 5- to 9-year-old children often made probabilistic predictions by analyzing a single cause of illness. 6) Children coming from higher educational backgrounds outperformed their counterparts coming from lower educational backgrounds with respect to understanding illness. 7) Specific knowledge acquired could generally improved the preschoolers’ understanding of causes of illness and their probabilities.

不确定性类型对概率表达和概率判断的影响

The present research firstly reviewed the experimental literature on probability expression and probability judgment, hypothesizing that individuals’ preference of probability expressions (verbal probability vs. numerical probability) and tendency for overextremity in probability judgment might differ with respect to different types of uncertainty. Five studies were conducted to test this hypothesis. In Study 1, questionnaires were used to explore the communication preference among Chinese-speaking people. Study 2 adapted the View of Uncertainty Questionnaire to explore the difference of verbal answers to three kinds of uncertainty. Study 3 and Study 4 used methods of the paper-and-pencil questionnaire and the laboratory experiment, respectively, to test the effects of uncertainty types on the preference of probability expressions and on the tendency for over-extreme probability judgment. Finally, Study 5 focused on individuals’ preference of probability expressions under various kinds of scenarios. The results were as follows: 1. The Communication Model Preference paradox phenomenon appears to be even more pronounced in the Chinese culture than in American English cultural settings. 2. The Chinese prefer more verbal probability expressions when communicating uncertainty in a weather-forecasting context than in a general context. 3. Sample groups with lower level of westernization tend to give more extreme answers and less probabilistic answers. 4. Types of uncertainty did have effects on individuals’ tendency for over-extreme probability judgment: under a traditional probability judgment task, people tend to be more over-extreme on internal uncertainty events than on external uncertainty events; however, this result is reversed under a gambling task. 5. Individuals’ preference for verbal probability expressions is more salient on internal uncertain events than on external uncertain events.

Multiple-User Quantum Optical Communication

A fundamental understanding of the information carrying capacity of optical channels requires the signal and physical channel to be modeled quantum mechanically. This thesis considers the problems of distributing multi-party quantum entanglement to distant users in a quantum communication system and determining the ability of quantum optical channels to reliably transmit information. A recent proposal for a quantum communication architecture that realizes long-distance, high-fidelity qubit teleportation is reviewed. Previous work on this communication architecture is extended in two primary ways. First, models are developed for assessing the effects of amplitude, phase, and frequency errors in the entanglement source of polarization-entangled photons, as well as fiber loss and imperfect polarization restoration, on the throughput and fidelity of the system. Second, an error model is derived for an extension of this communication architecture that allows for the production and storage of three-party entangled Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger states. A performance analysis of the quantum communication architecture in qubit teleportation and quantum secret sharing communication protocols is presented. Recent work on determining the channel capacity of optical channels is extended in several ways. Classical capacity is derived for a class of Gaussian Bosonic channels representing the quantum version of classical colored Gaussian-noise channels. The proof is strongly mo- tivated by the standard technique of whitening Gaussian noise used in classical information theory. Minimum output entropy problems related to these channel capacity derivations are also studied. These single-user Bosonic capacity results are extended to a multi-user scenario by deriving capacity regions for single-mode and wideband coherent-state multiple access channels. An even larger capacity region is obtained when the transmitters use non- classical Gaussian states, and an outer bound on the ultimate capacity region is presented