Estimation of the time of a linear trend in monitoring survival time

Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Evaluation of the relationship between Chlamydia pecorum sequence types and disease using a species-specific multi-locus sequence typing scheme (MLST)

Chlamydia pecorum is globally associated with several ovine diseases including keratoconjunctivitis and polyarthritis. The exact relationship between the variety of C. pecorum strains reported and the diseases described in sheep remains unclear, challenging efforts to accurately diagnose and manage infected flocks. In the present study, we applied C. pecorum multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) to C. pecorum positive samples collected from sympatric flocks of Australian sheep presenting with conjunctivitis, conjunctivitis with polyarthritis, or polyarthritis only and with no clinical disease (NCD) in order to elucidate the exact relationships between the infecting strains and the range of diseases. Using Bayesian phylogenetic and cluster analyses on 62 C. pecorum positive ocular, vaginal and rectal swab samples from sheep presenting with a range of diseases and in a comparison to C. pecorum sequence types (STs) from other hosts, one ST (ST 23) was recognised as a globally distributed strain associated with ovine and bovine diseases such as polyarthritis and encephalomyelitis. A second ST (ST 69) presently only described in Australian animals, was detected in association with ovine as well as koala chlamydial infections. The majority of vaginal and rectal C. pecorum STs from animals with NCD and/or anatomical sites with no clinical signs of disease in diseased animals, clustered together in a separate group, by both analyses. Furthermore, 8/13 detected STs were novel. This study provides a platform for strain selection for further research into the pathogenic potential of C. pecorum in animals and highlights targets for potential strain-specific diagnostic test development.

Missing in space: An evaluation of imputation methods for missing data in spatial analysis of risk factors for type II diabetes

Background Spatial analysis is increasingly important for identifying modifiable geographic risk factors for disease. However, spatial health data from surveys are often incomplete, ranging from missing data for only a few variables, to missing data for many variables. For spatial analyses of health outcomes, selection of an appropriate imputation method is critical in order to produce the most accurate inferences. Methods We present a cross-validation approach to select between three imputation methods for health survey data with correlated lifestyle covariates, using as a case study, type II diabetes mellitus (DM II) risk across 71 Queensland Local Government Areas (LGAs). We compare the accuracy of mean imputation to imputation using multivariate normal and conditional autoregressive prior distributions. Results Choice of imputation method depends upon the application and is not necessarily the most complex method. Mean imputation was selected as the most accurate method in this application. Conclusions Selecting an appropriate imputation method for health survey data, after accounting for spatial correlation and correlation between covariates, allows more complete analysis of geographic risk factors for disease with more confidence in the results to inform public policy decision-making.

Structure and vascular tissue expression of duplicated TERMINAL EAR1-like paralogues in poplar

TERMINAL EAR1-like (TEL) genes encode putative RNA-binding proteins only found in land plants. Previous studies suggested that they may regulate tissue and organ initiation in Poaceae. Two TEL genes were identified in both Populus trichocarpa and the hybrid aspen Populus tremula × P. alba, named, respectively, PoptrTEL1-2 and PtaTEL1-2. The analysis of the organisation around the PoptrTEL genes in the P. trichocarpa genome and the estimation of the synonymous substitution rate for PtaTEL1-2 genes indicate that the paralogous link between these two Populus TEL genes probably results from the Salicoid large-scale gene-duplication event. Phylogenetic analyses confirmed their orthology link with the other TEL genes. The expression pattern of both PtaTEL genes appeared to be restricted to the mother cells of the plant body: leaf founder cells, leaf primordia, axillary buds and root differentiating tissues, as well as to mother cells of vascular tissues. Most interestingly, PtaTEL1-2 transcripts were found in differentiating cells of secondary xylem and phloem, but probably not in the cambium itself. Taken together, these results indicate specific expression of the TEL genes in differentiating cells controlling tissue and organ development in Populus (and other Angiosperm species).

Comparative genomic analysis of human Chlamydia pneumoniae isolates from respiratory, brain and cardiac tissues

Chlamydia pneumoniae is an obligate intracellular bacterium implicated in a wide range of human diseases including atherosclerosis and Alzheimer's disease. Efforts to understand the relationships between C. pneumoniae detected in these diseases have been hindered by the availability of sequence data for non-respiratory strains. In this study, we sequenced the whole genomes for C. pneumoniae isolates from atherosclerosis and Alzheimer's disease, and compared these to previously published C. pneumoniae genomes. Phylogenetic analyses of these new C. pneumoniae strains indicate two sub-groups within human C. pneumoniae, and suggest that both recombination and mutation events have driven the evolution of human C. pneumoniae. Further fine-detailed analyses of these new C. pneumoniae sequences show several genetically variable loci. This suggests that similar strains of C. pneumoniae are found in the brain, lungs and cardiovascular system and that only minor genetic differences may contribute to the adaptation of particular strains in human disease.

Evolutionary games with two timescales

We consider a two timescale model of learning by economic agents wherein active or 'ontogenetic' learning by individuals takes place on a fast scale and passive or 'phylogenetic' learning by society as a whole on a slow scale, each affecting the evolution of the other. The former is modelled by the Monte Carlo dynamics of physics, while the latter is modelled by the replicator dynamics of evolutionary biology. Various qualitative aspects of the dynamics are studied in some simple cases, both analytically and numerically, and its role as a useful modelling device is emphasized.

targetTB: A target identification pipeline for Mycobacterium tuberculosis through an interactome, reactome and genome-scale structural analysis

Background: Tuberculosis still remains one of the largest killer infectious diseases, warranting the identification of newer targets and drugs. Identification and validation of appropriate targets for designing drugs are critical steps in drug discovery, which are at present major bottle-necks. A majority of drugs in current clinical use for many diseases have been designed without the knowledge of the targets, perhaps because standard methodologies to identify such targets in a high-throughput fashion do not really exist. With different kinds of 'omics' data that are now available, computational approaches can be powerful means of obtaining short-lists of possible targets for further experimental validation. Results: We report a comprehensive in silico target identification pipeline, targetTB, for Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The pipeline incorporates a network analysis of the protein-protein interactome, a flux balance analysis of the reactome, experimentally derived phenotype essentiality data, sequence analyses and a structural assessment of targetability, using novel algorithms recently developed by us. Using flux balance analysis and network analysis, proteins critical for survival of M. tuberculosis are first identified, followed by comparative genomics with the host, finally incorporating a novel structural analysis of the binding sites to assess the feasibility of a protein as a target. Further analyses include correlation with expression data and non-similarity to gut flora proteins as well as 'anti-targets' in the host, leading to the identification of 451 high-confidence targets. Through phylogenetic profiling against 228 pathogen genomes, shortlisted targets have been further explored to identify broad-spectrum antibiotic targets, while also identifying those specific to tuberculosis. Targets that address mycobacterial persistence and drug resistance mechanisms are also analysed. Conclusion: The pipeline developed provides rational schema for drug target identification that are likely to have high rates of success, which is expected to save enormous amounts of money, resources and time in the drug discovery process. A thorough comparison with previously suggested targets in the literature demonstrates the usefulness of the integrated approach used in our study, highlighting the importance of systems-level analyses in particular. The method has the potential to be used as a general strategy for target identification and validation and hence significantly impact most drug discovery programmes.

Nature and extent of genetic diversity of dengue viruses determined by 454 pyrosequencing

Dengue virus (DENV) populations are characteristically highly diverse. Regular lineage extinction and replacement is an important dynamic DENV feature, and most DENV lineage turnover events are associated with increased incidence of disease. The role of genetic diversity in DENV lineage extinctions is not understood. We investigated the nature and extent of genetic diversity in the envelope (E) gene of DENV serotype 1 representing different lineages histories. A region of the DENV genome spanning the E gene was amplified and sequenced by Roche/454 pyrosequencing. The pyrosequencing results identified distinct sub-populations (haplotypes) for each DENV-1 E gene. A phylogenetic tree was constructed with the consensus DENV-1 E gene nucleotide sequences, and the sequences of each constructed haplotype showed that the haplotypes segregated with the Sanger consensus sequence of the population from which they were drawn. Haplotypes determined through pyrosequencing identified a recombinant DENV genome that could not be identified through Sanger sequencing. Nucleotide level sequence diversities of DENV-1 populations determined from SNP analysis were very low, estimated from 0.009-0.01. There were also no stop codon, frameshift or non-frameshift mutations observed in the E genes of any lineage. No significant correlations between the accumulation of deleterious mutations or increasing genetic diversity and lineage extinction were observed (p>0.5). Although our hypothesis that accumulation of deleterious mutations over time led to the extinction and replacement of DENV lineages was ultimately not supported by the data, our data does highlight the significant technical issues that must be resolved in the way in which population diversity is measured for DENV and other viruses. The results provide an insight into the within-population genetic structure and diversity of DENV-1 populations.

Intercellular Communication in the Multicellular Stage of Dictyostelium-Discoideum

The aim of the present study was to draw inferences regarding the properties of single cells responsible for co-operative behaviour in the slug of the soil amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. The slug is an integrated multicellular mass formed by the aggregation of starved cells. The amoebae comprising the slug differentiate according to their spatial locations relative to one another, implying that, as in the case of other regulative embryos, they must be in mutual communication. We have previously shown that one manifestation of this communication is the time taken for the anteriormost fragment of the slug, the tip, to regenerate from slugs which have been rendered tipless by amputation. We present results of tip-regeneration experiments performed on genetically mosaic slugs. By comparing the mosaics with their component pure genotypes, we were able to discriminate between a set of otherwise equally plausible modes of intercellular signalling. Neither a'pacemaker' model, in which the overall rate of tip regeneration is determined by the cell with the highest frequency of autonomous oscillation, nor an 'independent-particle' model, in which the rate of regeneration is the arithmetical average of independent cell-dependent rates, is in quantitative accord with our findings. Our results are best explained by a form of signalling which operates by means of cell-to-cell relay. Therefore intercellular communication Seems to be essential for tip regeneration.

Death in the Bolivian High Plateau : Burials and Tiwanaku Society

My Ph.D. dissertation presents a multi-disciplinary analysis of the mortuary practices of the Tiwanaku culture of the Bolivian high plateau, situated at an altitude of c. 3800 m above sea level. The Tiwanaku State (c. AD 500-1150) was one of the most important pre-Inca civilisations of the South Central Andes. The book begins with a brief introductory chapter. In chapter 2 I discuss methodological and theoretical developments in archaeological mortuary studies from the late 1960s until the turn of the millennium. I am especially interested in the issue how archaeological burial data can be used to draw inferences on the social structure of prehistoric societies. Chapter 3 deals with the early historic sources written in the 16th and 17th centuries, following the Spanish Conquest of the Incas. In particular, I review information on how the Incas manifested status differences between and within social classes and what kinds of burial treatments they applied. In chapter 4 I compare the Inca case with 20th century ethnographic data on the Aymara Indians of the Bolivian high plateau. Even if Christianity has affected virtually every level of Aymara religion, surprisingly many traditional features can still be observed in present day Aymara mortuary ceremonies. The archaeological part of my book begins with chapter 5, which is an introduction into Tiwanaku archaeology. In the next chapter, I present an overview of previously reported Tiwanaku cemeteries and burials. Chapter 7 deals with my own excavations at the Late Tiwanaku/early post-Tiwanaku cemetery site of Tiraska, located on the south-eastern shore of Lake Titicaca. During the 1998, 2002, and 2003 field seasons, a total of 32 burials were investigated at Tiraska. The great majority of these were subterranean stone-lined tombs, each containing the skeletal remains of 1 individual and 1-2 ceramic vessels. Nine burials have been radiocarbon dated, the dates in question indicating that the cemetery was in use from the 10th until the 13th century AD. In chapter 8 I point out that considerable regional and/or ethnic differences can be noted between studied Tiwanaku cemetery sites. Because of the mentioned differences, and a general lack of securely dated burial contexts, I feel that at present we can do no better than to classify most studied Tiwanaku burials into three broad categories: (1) elite and/or priests, (2) "commoners", and (3) sacrificial victims and/or slaves and/or prisoners of war. On the basis of such indicators as monumental architecture and occupational specialisation we would expect to find considerable status-related differences in tomb size, grave goods, etc. among the Tiwanaku. Interestingly, however, such variation is rather modest, and the Tiwanaku seem to have been a lot less interested in expending considerable labour and resources in burial facilities than their pre-Columbian contemporaries of many parts of the Central Andes.

Robust estimating functions and bias correction for longitudinal data analysis

Robust methods are useful in making reliable statistical inferences when there are small deviations from the model assumptions. The widely used method of the generalized estimating equations can be "robustified" by replacing the standardized residuals with the M-residuals. If the Pearson residuals are assumed to be unbiased from zero, parameter estimators from the robust approach are asymptotically biased when error distributions are not symmetric. We propose a distribution-free method for correcting this bias. Our extensive numerical studies show that the proposed method can reduce the bias substantially. Examples are given for illustration.

Analysing commercial catch and effort data from a penaeid trawl fishery: A comparison of linear models, mixed models, and generalised estimating equations approaches

Statistical methods are often used to analyse commercial catch and effort data to provide standardised fishing effort and/or a relative index of fish abundance for input into stock assessment models. Achieving reliable results has proved difficult in Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), due to a combination of such factors as the biological characteristics of the animals, some aspects of the fleet dynamics, and the changes in fishing technology. For this set of data, we compared four modelling approaches (linear models, mixed models, generalised estimating equations, and generalised linear models) with respect to the outcomes of the standardised fishing effort or the relative index of abundance. We also varied the number and form of vessel covariates in the models. Within a subset of data from this fishery, modelling correlation structures did not alter the conclusions from simpler statistical models. The random-effects models also yielded similar results. This is because the estimators are all consistent even if the correlation structure is mis-specified, and the data set is very large. However, the standard errors from different models differed, suggesting that different methods have different statistical efficiency. We suggest that there is value in modelling the variance function and the correlation structure, to make valid and efficient statistical inferences and gain insight into the data. We found that fishing power was separable from the indices of prawn abundance only when we offset the impact of vessel characteristics at assumed values from external sources. This may be due to the large degree of confounding within the data, and the extreme temporal changes in certain aspects of individual vessels, the fleet and the fleet dynamics.

A Sketch of the Phonology and Grammar of Rajbanshi

This dissertation is a synchronic description of the phonology and grammar of two dialects of the Rajbanshi language (Eastern Indo-Aryan) as spoken in Jhapa, Nepal. I have primarily confined the analysis to the oral expression, since the emerging literary form is still in its infancy. The grammatical analysis is therefore based, for the most part, on a corpus of oral narrative text which was recorded and transcribed from three informants from north-east Jhapa. An informant, speaking a dialect from south-west Jhapa cross checked this text corpus and provided additional elicited material. I have described the phonology, morphology and syntax of the language, and also one aspect of its discourse structure. For the most part the phonology follows the basic Indo-Aryan pattern. Derivational morphology, compounding, reduplication, echo formation and onomatopoeic constructions are considered, as well as number, noun classes (their assignment and grammatical function), pronouns, and case and postpositions. In verbal morphology I cover causative stems, the copula, primary and secondary agreement, tense, aspect, mood, auxiliary constructions and non-finite forms. The term secondary agreement here refers to genitive agreement, dative-subject agreement and patient (and sometimes patient-agent) agreement. The breaking of default agreement rules has a range of pragmatic inferences. I argue that a distinction, based on formal, semantic and statistical grounds, should be made between conjunct verbs, derivational compound verbs and quasi-aspectual compound verbs. Rajbanshi has an open set of adjectives, and it additionally makes use of a restricted set of nouns which can function as adjectives. Various particles, and the emphatic and conjunctive clitics are also considered. The syntactic structures studied include: non-declarative speech acts, phrase-internal and clause-internal constituent order, negation, subordination, coordination and valence adjustment. I explain how the future, present and past tenses in Rajbanshi oral narratives do not seem to maintain a time reference, but rather to indicate a distinction between background and foreground information. I call this tense neutralisation .

Ecology of uncultivated oscillospira species in the rumen of cattle, sheep, and reindeer as assessed by microscopy and molecular approaches

The ecology of the uncultured, but large and morphologically conspicuous, rumen bacterium Oscillospira spp. was studied. Oscillospira-specific 16S rRNA gene sequences were detected in North American domestic cattle, sheep from Australia and Japan, and Norwegian reindeer. Phylogenetic analysis of the sequences obtained allowed definition of three operational taxonomic units within the Oscillospira clade. Consistent with this genetic diversity, we observed atypical smaller morphotypes by using an Oscillospira-specific fluorescence in situ hybridization probe. Despite the visual disappearance of typical large Oscillospira morphotypes, the presence of Oscillospira spp. was still detected by Oscillospira-specific PCR in the rumen of cattle and sheep. These observations suggest the broad presence of Oscillospira species in various rumen ecosystems with the level, and most likely the morphological form, dependent on diet. An ecological analysis based on enumeration of the morphologically conspicuous, large-septate form confirms that the highest counts are associated with the feeding of fresh forage diets to cattle and sheep and in two different subspecies of reindeer investigated.

Language change as an evolutionary process

In the thesis it is discussed in what ways concepts and methodology developed in evolutionary biology can be applied to the explanation and research of language change. The parallel nature of the mechanisms of biological evolution and language change is explored along with the history of the exchange of ideas between these two disciplines. Against this background computational methods developed in evolutionary biology are taken into consideration in terms of their applicability to the study of historical relationships between languages. Different phylogenetic methods are explained in common terminology, avoiding the technical language of statistics. The thesis is on one hand a synthesis of earlier scientific discussion, and on the other an attempt to map out the problems of earlier approaches in addition to finding new guidelines in the study of language change on their basis. Primarily literature about the connections between evolutionary biology and language change, along with research articles describing applications of phylogenetic methods into language change have been used as source material. The thesis starts out by describing the initial development of the disciplines of evolutionary biology and historical linguistics, a process which right from the beginning can be seen to have involved an exchange of ideas concerning the mechanisms of language change and biological evolution. The historical discussion lays the foundation for the handling of the generalised account of selection developed during the recent few decades. This account is aimed for creating a theoretical framework capable of explaining both biological evolution and cultural change as selection processes acting on self-replicating entities. This thesis focusses on the capacity of the generalised account of selection to describe language change as a process of this kind. In biology, the mechanisms of evolution are seen to form populations of genetically related organisms through time. One of the central questions explored in this thesis is whether selection theory makes it possible to picture languages are forming populations of a similar kind, and what a perspective like this can offer to the understanding of language in general. In historical linguistics, the comparative method and other, complementing methods have been traditionally used to study the development of languages from a common ancestral language. Computational, quantitative methods have not become widely used as part of the central methodology of historical linguistics. After the fading of a limited popularity enjoyed by the lexicostatistical method since the 1950s, only in the recent years have also the computational methods of phylogenetic inference used in evolutionary biology been applied to the study of early language history. In this thesis the possibilities offered by the traditional methodology of historical linguistics and the new phylogenetic methods are compared. The methods are approached through the ways in which they have been applied to the Indo-European languages, which is the most thoroughly investigated language family using both the traditional and the phylogenetic methods. The problems of these applications along with the optimal form of the linguistic data used in these methods are explored in the thesis. The mechanisms of biological evolution are seen in the thesis as parallel in a limited sense to the mechanisms of language change, however sufficiently so that the development of a generalised account of selection is deemed as possibly fruiful for understanding language change. These similarities are also seen to support the validity of using phylogenetic methods in the study of language history, although the use of linguistic data and the models of language change employed by these models are seen to await further development.