Modeling the forensic two-trace problem with Bayesian networks

The forensic two-trace problem is a perplexing inference problem introduced by Evett (J Forensic Sci Soc 27:375-381, 1987). Different possible ways of wording the competing pair of propositions (i.e., one proposition advanced by the prosecution and one proposition advanced by the defence) led to different quantifications of the value of the evidence (Meester and Sjerps in Biometrics 59:727-732, 2003). Here, we re-examine this scenario with the aim of clarifying the interrelationships that exist between the different solutions, and in this way, produce a global vision of the problem. We propose to investigate the different expressions for evaluating the value of the evidence by using a graphical approach, i.e. Bayesian networks, to model the rationale behind each of the proposed solutions and the assumptions made on the unknown parameters in this problem.

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.

Regulatory ambivalence and the limitations of pharmaceutical policy in Spain

Broadly speaking, pharmaceutical policy in Spain has been unable to control either the price or thevolume of drugs prescribed. Limited attempts have been made to bring together the regulation of thepharmaceutical market and policies, in pursuit of the desired goals of efficiency and quality. Thispaper assesses the regulation of the Spanish pharmaceutical market over the last two decades byexamining regulation and policy and the available empirical evidence on their appreciable effects,and presents recommendations for policy design. Our findings suggest that policies aiming to improveefficiency and quality have not managed to contain costs, while cost-effectiveness is still overlooked.We argue that future policies should encourage broader participation in the decision-making processesand promote a higher degree of competition, especially from generic drugs.

The dynamics of research networks in Brite-Euram

Network formation within the BRITE--EURAM program is investigated.Wedescribe the role of the hub of the network, which is defined as the setofmain contractors that account for most of the participations. We studytheeffects that the conflict of objectives within European research fundingbetween pre-competitive research vs. European cohesion has on theformationof networks and on the relationship between different partnersof the network. \\A panel data set is constructed including the second and third frameworkof theBrite--Euram program. A model of joint production of research results isusedto test for changes in the behavior of partners within the twoframeworks. \\The main findings are that participations are very concentrated, that isasmall group of institutions account for most of the participations, butgoingfrom the second to the third framework the presence of subcontractorsand singleparticipants increases substantially. This result is reinforced by the factthat main contractors receive smaller spill-ins within networks, butspill-insincrease from the second to the third framework.

Competitive location and pricing on networks

In this paper we consider a location and pricing model for a retail firm that wants to enter a spatial market where a competitor firm is already operating as a monopoly with several outlets. The entering firms seeks to determine the optimal uniform mill price and its servers' locations that maximizes profits given the reaction in price of the competitor firm to its entrance. A tabu search procedure is presentedto solve the model together with computational experience.

Median problems in networks

The P-median problem is a classical location model par excellence . In this paper we, firstexamine the early origins of the problem, formulated independently by Louis Hakimi andCharles ReVelle, two of the fathers of the burgeoning multidisciplinary field of researchknown today as Facility Location Theory and Modelling. We then examine some of thetraditional heuristic and exact methods developed to solve the problem. In the third sectionwe analyze the impact of the model in the field. We end the paper by proposing new lines ofresearch related to such a classical problem.

Morphometric shape analysis using learning vector quantization neural networks - an example distinguishing two microtine vole species

Closely related species may be very difficult to distinguish morphologically, yet sometimes morphology is the only reasonable possibility for taxonomic classification. Here we present learning-vector-quantization artificial neural networks as a powerful tool to classify specimens on the basis of geometric morphometric shape measurements. As an example, we trained a neural network to distinguish between field and root voles from Procrustes transformed landmark coordinates on the dorsal side of the skull, which is so similar in these two species that the human eye cannot make this distinction. Properly trained neural networks misclassified only 3% of specimens. Therefore, we conclude that the capacity of learning vector quantization neural networks to analyse spatial coordinates is a powerful tool among the range of pattern recognition procedures that is available to employ the information content of geometric morphometrics.

Regulatory B cells shape the development of Th2 immune responses in BALB/c mice infected with Leishmania major through IL-10 production.

Recent evidence indicates that B cells are required for susceptibility to infection with Leishmania major in BALB/c mice. In this study, we analyzed the role of the IL-10 produced by B cells in this process. We showed that B cells purified from the spleen of BALB/c mice produced IL-10 in response to stimulation with L. major in vitro. In vivo, early IL-10 mRNA expression is detected after L. major infection in B cells from draining lymph nodes of susceptible BALB/c, but not of resistant C57BL/6 mice. Although adoptive transfer of naive wild-type B cells prior to infection in B cell-deficient BALB/c mice restored Th2 cell development and susceptibility to infection with L. major of these otherwise resistant mice, adoptive transfer of IL-10(-/-) B cells mice did not. B cells stimulated by L. major, following in vitro or in vivo encounter, express the CD1d and CD5 molecules and the IL-10 produced by these cells downregulate IL-12 production by L. major-stimulated dendritic cells. These observations indicate that IL-10 secreting B cells are phenotypically and functionally regulatory B cells. Altogether these results demonstrate that the IL-10 produced by regulatory CD1d+ CD5+ B cells in response to L. major is critical for Th2 cell development in BALB/c mice.

On circuit functionality in boolean networks.

It has been proved, for several classes of continuous and discrete dynamical systems, that the presence of a positive (resp. negative) circuit in the interaction graph of a system is a necessary condition for the presence of multiple stable states (resp. a cyclic attractor). A positive (resp. negative) circuit is said to be functional when it "generates" several stable states (resp. a cyclic attractor). However, there are no definite mathematical frameworks translating the underlying meaning of "generates." Focusing on Boolean networks, we recall and propose some definitions concerning the notion of functionality along with associated mathematical results.

Attentional networks efficiency in preterm children.

Recent studies have reported specific executive and attentional deficits in preterm children. However, the majority of this research has used multidetermined tasks to assess these abilities, and the interpretation of the results lacks an explicit theoretical backdrop to better understand the origin of the difficulties observed. In the present study, we used the Child Attention Network Task (Child ANT; Rueda et al. 2004) to assess the efficiency of the alerting, orienting and executive control networks. We compared the performance of 25 preterm children (gestational age < or = 32 weeks) to 25 full-term children, all between 5(1/2) and 6(1/2) years of age. Results showed that, as compared to full-term children, preterm children were slower on all conditions of the Child ANT and had a specific deficit in executive control abilities. We also observed a significantly higher correlation between the orienting and executive control networks in the preterm group, suggesting less differentiation of these two networks in this population.

Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

A simple access pricing rule to achieve the Ramsey outcome for interconnected networks

This paper considers a general and informationally efficient approach to determine the optimal access pricing rule for interconnected networks. It shows that there exists a simple rule that achieves the Ramsey outcome as the unique equilibrium when networks compete in linear prices without network-based price discrimination. The approach is informationally efficient in the sense that the regulator is required to know only the marginal cost structure, i.e. the marginal cost of making and terminating a call. The approach is general in that access prices can depend not only on the marginal costs but also on the retail prices, which can be observed by consumers and therefore by the regulator as well. In particular, I consider the set of linear access pricing rules which includes any fixed access price, the Efficient Component Pricing Rule (ECPR) and the Modified ECPR as special cases. I show that in this set, there is a unique rule that implements the Ramsey outcome as the unique equilibrium independently of the underlying demand conditions.