Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

meso-Porphyrinylphosphine Oxides: Mono- and Bidentate Ligands for Supramolecular Chemistry and the Crystal Structures of Monomeric [10,20-Diphenylporphyrinatonickel(II)-5,15-diyl]-bis-[P(O)Ph2] and Polymeric Self-Coordinated ([10,20-Diphenylporphyrinatozinc(II)-5,15-diyl]-bis-[P(O)Ph2])

A series of porphyrins substituted in one or two meso-positions by diphenylphosphine oxide groups has been prepared by the palladium catalysed reaction of diphenylphosphine or its oxide with the corresponding bromoporphyrins. Compounds {MDPP-[P(O)Ph2]n} (M = H2, Ni, Zn; H2DPP = 5,15-diphenylporphyrin; n = 1, 2) were isolated in yields of 60-95%. The reaction is believed to proceed via the conventional oxidative addition, phosphination and reductive elimination steps, as the stoichiometric reaction of η1-palladio(II) porphyrin [PdBr(H2DPP)(dppe)] (H2DPP = 5,15-diphenylporphyrin; dppe = 1,2-bis(diphenylphosphino)ethane) with diphenylphosphine oxide also results in the desired mono-porphyrinylphosphine oxide [H2DPP-P(O)Ph2]. Attempts to isolate the tertiary phosphines failed due to their extreme air-sensitivity. Variable temperature 1H NMR studies of [H2DPP-P(O)Ph2] revealed an intrinsic lack of symmetry, while fluorescence spectroscopy showed that the phosphine oxide group does not behave as a "heavy atom" quencher. The electron withdrawing effect of the phosphine oxide group was confirmed by voltammetry. The ligands were characterised by multinuclear NMR and UV-visible spectroscopy as well as mass spectrometry. Single crystal X-ray crystallography showed that the bis(phosphine oxide) nickel(II) complex {[NiDPP-[P(O)Ph2]2} is monomeric in the solid state, with a ruffled porphyrin core and the two P=O fragments on the same side of the average plane of the molecule. On the other hand, the corresponding zinc(II) complex formed infinite chains through coordination of one Ph2PO substituent to the neighbouring zinc porphyrin through an almost linear P=O---Zn unit, leaving the other Ph2PO group facing into a parallel channel filled with disordered water molecules. These new phosphine oxides are attractive ligands for supramolecular porphyrin chemistry.

Full circle : the future of sustainable fashion manufacturing in New Zealand

Many fashion businesses in New Zealand have followed a global trend towards inexpensive off shore manufacturing. The transfer of the production of garments to overseas workers has had consequences for the wellbeing of local businesses, fashion designers and garment makers. The gradual decline of fashion manufacturing also appears to have resulted in a local fashion scene where many garments look the same in style, colour, fabric, cut and fit. The excitement of the past, where the majority of fashion designers established their own individuality through the cut and shape of the garments that they produced, may have been inadvertently lost in an effort to take advantage of cost savings achieved through mass production and manufacturing methods which are now largely unavailable in New Zealand. Consequently, a sustainable local fashion and manufacturing industry, with design integrity, seems further out of reach. This paper is focussed upon the thesis that the design and manufacture of a fashion garment, bearing in mind certain economic and practical restrictions at its inception, can contribute to a more sustainable fashion manufacturing industry in New Zealand.

Alcohol use within the sibship

With over 100,000 alcohol-related hospitalisations every year, risky drinking within Australia is a major health issue (Pascal, Chikritzhs, & Jones, 2009). Typically health advocates focus on parental and peer influence as a source of excessive drinking; leaving out the often overlooked role of siblings. Using consumer socialisation theory (Ward, 1974), the adoption of alcohol related behaviours between siblings was examined. Using a sample of 257 young adults alcohol behaviours were examined between sibship groups. The results revealed that alcohol type similarity was significant for siblings of who were of the same gender, but not significant for siblings of opposite genders. The results suggest that in order for an older sibling to influence a younger brother or sister they must be of the same gender and that there must be a relatively large age gap between them. This suggests that power in sibling relationships could play an important factor in alcohol behaviours.

Wavefront aberrations and the depth of focus of the human eye

The depth of focus (DOF) can be defined as the variation in image distance of a lens or an optical system which can be tolerated without incurring an objectionable lack of sharpness of focus. The DOF of the human eye serves a mechanism of blur tolerance. As long as the target image remains within the depth of focus in the image space, the eye will still perceive the image as being clear. A large DOF is especially important for presbyopic patients with partial or complete loss of accommodation (presbyopia), since this helps them to obtain an acceptable retinal image when viewing a target moving through a range of near to intermediate distances. The aim of this research was to investigate the DOF of the human eye and its association with the natural wavefront aberrations, and how higher order aberrations (HOAs) can be used to expand the DOF, in particular by inducing spherical aberrations ( 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z ). The depth of focus of the human eye can be measured using a variety of subjective and objective methods. Subjective measurements based on a Badal optical system have been widely adopted, through which the retinal image size can be kept constant. In such measurements, the subject.s tested eye is normally cyclopleged. Objective methods without the need of cycloplegia are also used, where the eye.s accommodative response is continuously monitored. Generally, the DOF measured by subjective methods are slightly larger than those measured objectively. In recent years, methods have also been developed to estimate DOF from retinal image quality metrics (IQMs) derived from the ocular wavefront aberrations. In such methods, the DOF is defined as the range of defocus error that degrades the retinal image quality calculated from the IQMs to a certain level of the possible maximum value. In this study, the effect of different amounts of HOAs on the DOF was theoretically evaluated by modelling and comparing the DOF of subjects from four different clinical groups, including young emmetropes (20 subjects), young myopes (19 subjects), presbyopes (32 subjects) and keratoconics (35 subjects). A novel IQM-based through-focus algorithm was developed to theoretically predict the DOF of subjects with their natural HOAs. Additional primary spherical aberration ( 0 4 Z ) was also induced in the wavefronts of myopes and presbyopes to simulate the effect of myopic refractive correction (e.g. LASIK) and presbyopic correction (e.g. progressive power IOL) on the subject.s DOF. Larger amounts of HOAs were found to lead to greater values of predicted DOF. The introduction of primary spherical aberration was found to provide moderate increase of DOF while slightly deteriorating the image quality at the same time. The predicted DOF was also affected by the IQMs and the threshold level adopted. We then investigated the influence of the chosen threshold level of the IQMs on the predicted DOF, and how it relates to the subjectively measured DOF. The subjective DOF was measured in a group of 17 normal subjects, and we used through-focus visual Strehl ratio based on optical transfer function (VSOTF) derived from their wavefront aberrations as the IQM to estimate the DOF. The results allowed comparison of the subjective DOF with the estimated DOF and determination of a threshold level for DOF estimation. Significant correlation was found between the subject.s estimated threshold level for the estimated DOF and HOA RMS (Pearson.s r=0.88, p<0.001). The linear correlation can be used to estimate the threshold level for each individual subject, subsequently leading to a method for estimating individual.s DOF from a single measurement of their wavefront aberrations. A subsequent study was conducted to investigate the DOF of keratoconic subjects. Significant increases of the level of HOAs, including spherical aberration, coma and trefoil, can be observed in keratoconic eyes. This population of subjects provides an opportunity to study the influence of these HOAs on DOF. It was also expected that the asymmetric aberrations (coma and trefoil) in the keratoconic eye could interact with defocus to cause regional blur of the target. A dual-Badal-channel optical system with a star-pattern target was used to measure the subjective DOF in 10 keratoconic eyes and compared to those from a group of 10 normal subjects. The DOF measured in keratoconic eyes was significantly larger than that in normal eyes. However there was not a strong correlation between the large amount of HOA RMS and DOF in keratoconic eyes. Among all HOA terms, spherical aberration was found to be the only HOA that helped to significantly increase the DOF in the studied keratoconic subjects. Through the first three studies, a comprehensive understanding of DOF and its association to the HOAs in the human eye had been achieved. An adaptive optics system was then designed and constructed. The system was capable of measuring and altering the wavefront aberrations in the subject.s eye and measuring the resulting DOF under the influence of different combination of HOAs. Using the AO system, we investigated the concept of extending the DOF through optimized combinations of 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z . Systematic introduction of a targeted amount of both 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z was found to significantly improve the DOF of healthy subjects. The use of wavefront combinations of 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z with opposite signs can further expand the DOF, rather than using 0 4 Z or 0 6 Z alone. The optimal wavefront combinations to expand the DOF were estimated using the ratio of increase in DOF and loss of retinal image quality defined by VSOTF. In the experiment, the optimal combinations of 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z were found to provide a better balance of DOF expansion and relatively smaller decreases in VA. Therefore, the optimal combinations of 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z provides a more efficient method to expand the DOF rather than 0 4 Z or 0 6 Z alone. This PhD research has shown that there is a positive correlation between the DOF and the eye.s wavefront aberrations. More aberrated eyes generally have a larger DOF. The association of DOF and the natural HOAs in normal subjects can be quantified, which allows the estimation of DOF directly from the ocular wavefront aberration. Among the Zernike HOA terms, spherical aberrations ( 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z ) were found to improve the DOF. Certain combinations of 0 4 Z and 0 6 Z provide a more effective method to expand DOF than using 0 4 Z or 0 6 Z alone, and this could be useful in the optimal design of presbyopic optical corrections such as multifocal contact lenses, intraocular lenses and laser corneal surgeries.

The phenomenon of business process management : practitioners’ emphasis

Since 2005, Business Process Management (BPM) has been one of the top 10 issues for CIO’s. However, while there is a general awareness what BPM is and what it relates to, one needs to ask ‘does everyone have the same understanding of the BPM phenomenon? And if not, is there a pattern to these conceptions and how do the ways of conceptualizing BPM differ?’ This paper presents the practitioner conceptions of BPM using a phenomenographic approach to detect variations in the BPM conceptions emphasised. 26 interviews were conducted with BPM practitioners with various scopes of work (namely program management, project management and execution levels) in this qualitative research. Distinct variations in how BPM is conceptualized among BPM practitioners are revealed, showing that emphasis is put depending on their scope of work either towards value generation, improvement or managing processes. This is of particular relevance to the Information Systems and BPM community in order to align the rigorous work done to date by the research community with the current understanding of BPM in the practitioner community.

Electron diffusion and back reaction in dye-sensitized solar cells : the effect of nonlinear recombination kinetics

The electron collection efficiency in dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) is usually related to the electron diffusion length, L = (Dτ)^1/2, where D is the diffusion coefficient of mobile electrons and τ is their lifetime, which is determined by electron transfer to the redox electrolyte. Analysis of incident photon-to-current efficiency (IPCE) spectra for front and rear illumination consistently gives smaller values of L than those derived from small amplitude methods. We show that the IPCE analysis is incorrect if recombination is not first-order in free electron concentration, and we demonstrate that the intensity dependence of the apparent L derived by first-order analysis of IPCE measurements and the voltage dependence of L derived from perturbation experiments can be fitted using the same reaction order, γ ≈ 0.8. The new analysis presented in this letter resolves the controversy over why L values derived from small amplitude methods are larger than those obtained from IPCE data.

Luxury fashion: The role of innovation as a key contributing factor in the development of luxury fashion goods and sustainable fashion design

Luxury is a quality that is difficult to define as the historical concept of luxury appears to be both dynamic and culturally specific. The everyday definition explains a ‘luxury’ in relation to a necessity: a luxury (product or service) is defined as something that consumers want rather than need. However, the growth of global markets has seen a boom in what are now referred to as ‘luxury brands’. This branding of products as luxury has resulted in a change in the way consumers understand luxury goods and services. In their attempts to characterize a luxury brand, Fionda & Moore in their article “The anatomy of a Luxury Brand” summarize a range of critical conditions that are in addition to product branding “... including product and design attributes of quality, craftsmanship and innovative, creative and unique products” (Fionda & Moore, 2009). For the purposes of discussing fashion design however, quality and craftsmanship are inseparable while creativity and innovation exist under different conditions. The terms ‘creative’ and ‘innovative’ are often used inter-changeably and are connected with most descriptions of the design process, defining ‘design’ and ‘fashion’ in many cases. Christian Marxt and Fredrik Hacklin identify this condition in their paper “Design, product development, innovation: all the same in the end?”(Marxt & Hacklin, 2005) and suggest that design communities should be aware that the distinction between these terms, whilst once quite definitive, is becoming narrow to a point where they will mean the same thing. In relation to theory building in the discipline this could pose significant problems. Brett Richards (2003) identifies innovation as different from creativity in that innovation aims to transform and implement rather than simply explore and invent. Considering this distinction, in particular relation to luxury branding, may affect the way in which design can contribute to a change in the way luxury fashion goods might be perceived in a polarised fashion market, namely suggesting that ‘luxury’ is what consumers need rather than the ‘pile it high, sell it cheap’ fashion that the current market dynamic would indicate they want. This paper attempts to explore the role of innovation as a key contributing factor in luxury concepts, in particular the relationship between innovation and creativity, the conditions which enable innovation, the role of craftsmanship in innovation and design innovation in relation to luxury fashion products. An argument is presented that technological innovation can be demonstrated as a common factor in the development of luxury fashion product and that the connection between designer and maker will play an important role in the development of luxury fashion goods for a sustainable fashion industry.

Access to medicine and the dangers of patent linkage : lessons from Bayer Corp v. Union of India

In February 2010, the Delhi High Court delivered its decision in Bayer Corp v Union of India in which Bayer had appealed against an August 2009 decision of the same court. Both decisions prevented Bayer from introducing the concept of patent linkage into India’s drug regulatory regime. Bayer appealed to the Indian Supreme Court, the highest court in India, which agreed on 2 March 2010 to hear the appeal. Given that India is regarded as a global pharmaceutical manufacturer of generic medications, how its judiciary and government perceive their international obligations has a significant impact on the global access to medicines regime. In rejecting the application of patent linkage, the case provides an opportunity for India to further acknowledge its international human rights obligations.

Project alliancing at National Museum of Australia : the collaborative process

Project alliancing is a new alternative to traditional project delivery systems, especially in the commercial building sector. The Collaborative Process is a theoretical model of people and systems characteristics that are required to reduce the adversarial nature of most construction projects. Although developed separately, both are responses to the same pressures. Project alliancing was just used successfully to complete the National Museum of Australia. This project was analyzed as a case study to determine the extent to which it could be classified as a “collaborative project”. Five key elements of The Collaborative Process were reviewed and numerous examples from the management of this project were cited that support the theoretical recommendations of this model. In the case of this project, significant added value was delivered to the client and many innovations resulted from the collective work of the parties to the contract. It was concluded that project alliances for commercial buildings offer many advantages over traditional project delivery systems, which are related to increasing the levels of collaboration among a project management team.

Design and implementation of the Exercise for Health trial – a pragmatic exercise intervention for women with breast cancer

Background Exercise for Health was a pragmatic, randomised, controlled trial comparing the effect of an eight-month exercise intervention on function, treatment-related side effects and quality of life following breast cancer, compared with usual care. The intervention commenced six weeks post-surgery, and two modes of delivering the same intervention was compared with usual care. The purpose of this paper is to describe the study design, along with outcomes related to recruitment, retention and representativeness, and intervention participation. Methods: Women newly diagnosed with breast cancer and residing in a major metropolitan city of Queensland, Australia, were eligible to participate. Consenting women were randomised to a face-to-face-delivered exercise group (FtF, n=67), telephone-delivered exercise group (Tel, n=67) or usual care group (UC, n=60) and were assessed pre-intervention (5-weeks post-surgery), mid-intervention (6 months post-surgery) and 10 weeks post-intervention (12 months post-surgery). Each intervention arm entailed 16 sessions with an Exercise Physiologist. Results: Of 318 potentially eligible women, 63% (n=200) agreed to participate, with a 12-month retention rate of 93%. Participants were similar to the Queensland breast cancer population with respect to disease characteristics, and the randomisation procedure was mostly successful at attaining group balance, with the few minor imbalances observed unlikely to influence intervention effects given balance in other related characteristics. Median participation was 14 (min, max: 0, 16) and 13 (min, max: 3, 16) intervention sessions for the FtF and Tel, respectively, with 68% of those in Tel and 82% in FtF participating in at least 75% of sessions. Discussion: Participation in both intervention arms during and following treatment for breast cancer was feasible and acceptable to women. Future work, designed to inform translation into practice, will evaluate the quality of life, clinical, psychosocial and behavioural outcomes associated with each mode of delivery.

Genome-wide identification and expression analysis of the NF-Y family of transcription factors in Triticum aestivum

Nuclear Factor Y (NF-Y) is a trimeric complex that binds to the CCAAT box, a ubiquitous eukaryotic promoter element. The three subunits NF-YA, NF-YB and NF-YC are represented by single genes in yeast and mammals. However, in model plant species (Arabidopsis and rice) multiple genes encode each subunit providing the impetus for the investigation of the NF-Y transcription factor family in wheat. A total of 37 NF-Y and Dr1 genes (10 NF-YA, 11 NF-YB, 14 NF-YC and 2 Dr1) in Triticum aestivum were identified in the global DNA databases by computational analysis in this study. Each of the wheat NF-Y subunit families could be further divided into 4-5 clades based on their conserved core region sequences. Several conserved motifs outside of the NF-Y core regions were also identified by comparison of NF-Y members from wheat, rice and Arabidopsis. Quantitative RT-PCR analysis revealed that some of the wheat NF-Y genes were expressed ubiquitously, while others were expressed in an organ-specific manner. In particular, each TaNF-Y subunit family had members that were expressed predominantly in the endosperm. The expression of nine NF-Y and two Dr1 genes in wheat leaves appeared to be responsive to drought stress. Three of these genes were up-regulated under drought conditions, indicating that these members of the NF-Y and Dr1 families are potentially involved in plant drought adaptation. The combined expression and phylogenetic analyses revealed that members within the same phylogenetic clade generally shared a similar expression profile. Organ-specific expression and differential response to drought indicate a plant-specific biological role for various members of this transcription factor family.

Pressure, oxygen tension and temperature in the periosteal callus during bone healing - An in vivo study in sheep

Adequate blood supply and sufficient mechanical stability are necessary for timely fracture healing. Damage to vessels impairs blood supply; hindering the transport of oxygen which is an essential metabolite for cells involved in repair. The degree of mechanical stability determines the mechanical conditions in the healing tissues. The mechanical conditions can influence tissue differentiation and may also inhibit revascularization. Knowledge of the actual conditions in a healing fracture in vivo is extremely limited. This study aimed to quantify the pressure, oxygen tension and temperature in the external callus during the early phase of bone healing. Six Merino-mix sheep underwent a tibial osteotomy. The tibia was stabilized with a standard mono-lateral external fixator. A multi-parameter catheter was placed adjacent to the osteotomy gap on the medial aspect of the tibia. Measurements of oxygen tension and temperature were performed for ten days post-op. Measurements of pressure were performed during gait on days three and seven. The ground reaction force and the interfragmentary movements were measured simultaneously. The maximum pressure during gait increased (p=0.028) from three (41.3 [29.2-44.1] mm Hg) to seven days (71.8 [61.8-84.8] mm Hg). During the same interval, there was no change (p=0.92) in the peak ground reaction force or in the interfragmentary movement (compression: p=0.59 and axial rotation: p=0.11). Oxygen tension in the haematoma (74.1 mm Hg [68.6-78.5]) was initially high post-op and decreased steadily over the first five days. The temperature increased over the first four days before reaching a plateau at approximately 38.5 degrees C on day four. This study is the first to report pressure, oxygen tension and temperature in the early callus tissues. The magnitude of pressure increased even though weight bearing and IFM remained unchanged. Oxygen tensions were initially high in the haematoma and fell gradually with a low oxygen environment first established after four to five days. This study illustrates that in bone healing the local environment for cells may not be considered constant with regard to oxygen tension, pressure and temperature.

Reliable representations for association rules

Association rule mining has contributed to many advances in the area of knowledge discovery. However, the quality of the discovered association rules is a big concern and has drawn more and more attention recently. One problem with the quality of the discovered association rules is the huge size of the extracted rule set. Often for a dataset, a huge number of rules can be extracted, but many of them can be redundant to other rules and thus useless in practice. Mining non-redundant rules is a promising approach to solve this problem. In this paper, we first propose a definition for redundancy, then propose a concise representation, called a Reliable basis, for representing non-redundant association rules. The Reliable basis contains a set of non-redundant rules which are derived using frequent closed itemsets and their generators instead of using frequent itemsets that are usually used by traditional association rule mining approaches. An important contribution of this paper is that we propose to use the certainty factor as the criterion to measure the strength of the discovered association rules. Using this criterion, we can ensure the elimination of as many redundant rules as possible without reducing the inference capacity of the remaining extracted non-redundant rules. We prove that the redundancy elimination, based on the proposed Reliable basis, does not reduce the strength of belief in the extracted rules. We also prove that all association rules, their supports and confidences, can be retrieved from the Reliable basis without accessing the dataset. Therefore the Reliable basis is a lossless representation of association rules. Experimental results show that the proposed Reliable basis can significantly reduce the number of extracted rules. We also conduct experiments on the application of association rules to the area of product recommendation. The experimental results show that the non-redundant association rules extracted using the proposed method retain the same inference capacity as the entire rule set. This result indicates that using non-redundant rules only is sufficient to solve real problems needless using the entire rule set.

Immunohistochemical analysis of structural changes in collagen for the assessment of osteoarthritis

Collagen fibrillation within articular cartilage (AC) plays a key role in joint osteoarthritis (OA) progression and, therefore, studying collagen synthesis changes could be an indicator for use in the assessment of OA. Various staining techniques have been developed and used to determine the collagen network transformation under microscopy. However, because collagen and proteoglycan coexist and have the same index of refraction, conventional methods for specific visualization of collagen tissue is difficult. This study aimed to develop an advanced staining technique to distinguish collagen from proteoglycan and to determine its evolution in relation to OA progression using optical and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM). A number of AC samples were obtained from sheep joints, including both healthy and abnormal joints with OA grades 1 to 3. The samples were stained using two different trichrome methods and immunohistochemistry (IHC) to stain both colourimetrically and with fluorescence. Using optical microscopy and LSCM, the present authors demonstrated that the IHC technique stains collagens only, allowing the collagen network to be separated and directly investigated. Fluorescently-stained IHC samples were also subjected to LSCM to obtain three-dimensional images of the collagen fibres. Changes in the collagen fibres were then correlated with the grade of OA in tissue. This study is the first to successfully utilize the IHC staining technique in conjunction with laser scanning confocal microscopy. This is a valuable tool for assessing changes to articular cartilage in OA.