Natural disasters and clientelism: the case of floods and landslides in Colombia

What are the effects of natural disasters on electoral results? Some authors claim that catastrophes have a negative effect on the survival of leaders in a democracy because voters have a propensity to punish politicians for not preventing or poorly handling a crisis. In contrast, this paper finds that these events might be beneficial for leaders. Disasters are linked to leader survival through clientelism: they generate an in-flow of resources in the form of aid, which increase money for buying votes. Analyzing the rainy season of 2010-2011 in Colombia, considered its worst disaster in history, I use a difference-in-differences strategy to show that in the local election incumbent parties benefited from the disaster. The result is robust to different specifications and alternative explanations. Moreover, places receiving more aid and those with judicial evidence of vote-buying irregularities, are more likely to reelect the incumbent, supporting the mechanism proposed by this paper.

On blame-freeness and reciprocity: an experimental study

The theory of reciprocity is predicated on the assumption that people are willing to reward nice or kind acts and to punish unkind ones. This assumption raises the question as to how to define kindness. In this paper we offer a new definition of kindness that we call “blame-freeness.” Put most simply, blame-freeness states that in judging whether player i has been kind or unkind to player j in a social situation, player j would have to put himself in the strategic position of player i, while retaining his preferences, and ask if he would have acted in a manner that was worse than i did under identical circumstances. If j would have acted in a more unkind manner than i acted, then we say that j does not blame i for his behavior. If, however, j would have been nicer than i was, then we say that “j blames i” for his actions (i’s actions were blameworthy). We consider this notion a natural, intuitive and empirically relevant way to explain the motives of people engaged in reciprocal behavior. After developing the conceptual framework, we then test this concept in a laboratory experiment involving tournaments and find significant support for the theory.

On the exhaustiveness of truncation and dropping strategies in many-to-many matching markets

We consider two–sided many–to–many matching markets in which each worker may work for multiple firms and each firm may hire multiple workers. We study individual and group manipulations in centralized markets that employ (pairwise) stable mechanisms and that require participants to submit rank order lists of agents on the other side of the market. We are interested in simple preference manipulations that have been reported and studied in empirical and theoretical work: truncation strategies, which are the lists obtained by removing a tail of least preferred partners from a preference list, and the more general dropping strategies, which are the lists obtained by only removing partners from a preference list (i.e., no reshuffling). We study when truncation / dropping strategies are exhaustive for a group of agents on the same side of the market, i.e., when each match resulting from preference manipulations can be replicated or improved upon by some truncation / dropping strategies. We prove that for each stable mechanism, truncation strategies are exhaustive for each agent with quota 1 (Theorem 1). We show that this result cannot be extended neither to group manipulations (even when all quotas equal 1 – Example 1), nor to individual manipulations when the agent’s quota is larger than 1 (even when all other agents’ quotas equal 1 – Example 2). Finally, we prove that for each stable mechanism, dropping strategies are exhaustive for each group of agents on the same side of the market (Theorem 2), i.e., independently of the quotas.

Parametric pension reform and the intensive margin of labor supply, evidence from Colombia

We analyze the effect of a parametric reform of the fully-funded pension regime in Colombia on the intensive margin of the labor supply. We take advantage of a threshold defined by law in order to identify the causal effect using a regression discontinuity design. We find that a pension system that increases retirement age and the minimum weeks during which workers must contribute to claim pension benefits causes an increase of around 2 hours on the number of weekly worked hours; this corresponds to 4% of the average number of weekly worked hours or around 14% of a standard deviation of weekly worked hours. The effect is robust to different specifications, polynomial orders and sample sizes.

The impact of a minimum pension on old age poverty and its budgetary cost. Evidence from Latin America

This paper examines the impact on old age poverty and the fiscal cost of universal minimum oldage pensions in Latin America using recent household survey data for 18 countries. Alleviatingold age poverty requires different approach from other age groups and a minimum pension islikely to be the only alternative available. First we measure old age poverty rates for all countries.Second we discuss the design of minimum pensions schemes, means-tested or not, as wellas the disincentive effects that they are expected to have on the economic and social behavior ofhouseholds including labor supply, saving and family solidarity. Third we use the household surveysto simulate the fiscal cost and the impact on poverty rates of alternative minimum pensionschemes in the 18 countries. We show that a universal minimum pension would substantiallyreduce poverty among the elderly except in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay where minimumpension systems already exist and poverty rates are low. Such schemes have much tobe commended in terms of incentives, spillover effects and administrative simplicity but have ahigh fiscal cost. The latter is a function of the age at which benefits are awarded, the prevailinglongevity, the generosity of benefits, the efficacy of means testing, and naturally the fiscal capacityof the country.

Caracterización de la competencia entre dos organizaciones del sector de seguros en Colombia

En la permanente búsqueda de mejores condiciones que las organizaciones realizan con el propósito de dar respuesta a los cambios del entorno y la complejidad de la interacción con las organizaciones del mismo sector, se encuentra necesario identificar las características que les permiten a estas, sobrevivir, mantenerse en el mercado o crecer en él. En este orden de ideas, en este documento se desarrolla la caracterización de la forma como dos organizaciones importantes y líderes del sector asegurador en Colombia: Seguros Bolívar y Suramericana de Seguros, compiten, desde el punto de vista comercial, con el propósito de identificar como esto influye en cada organización. La investigación se centró en explicar a partir de los autores revisados y analizados con respecto al concepto de la competencia, en particular, la forma como se enfrenta la organización al entorno tanto interno como externo, la influencia de cada organización según su estructura, su importancia, la disponibilidad de los recursos necesarios para desarrollar sus actividades, el impacto y las implicaciones organizacionales a partir de la forma cómo se enfrenta el entorno. Para lo anterior y con base a la revisión conceptual, se realizó la recolección de datos y cifras tanto de las organizaciones como del sector al cual pertenecen, adicionalmente se realizaron entrevistas tanto estructuradas como semi estructuradas al área de ventas, debido a que es el área de las organizaciones encargada de generar estrategias de ventas, posicionar productos en el mercado, identificar el perfil del consumidor, conocer y comprender el mercado y la competencia. Lo anterior con el fin de caracterizar a las organizaciones analizadas, determinando cómo responden a la competencia y al entorno, para finalmente establecer cuáles son los comportamientos recurrentes, similares y diferentes entre ellas. Por lo tanto, los resultados obtenidos en la investigación permiten establecer si dos empresas con estructuras, tamaño y participación en el mercado similares compiten de igual forma y que implicación tiene esto en el comportamiento organizacional.

Ciencias de la complejidad: estado actual

Los aportes teóricos y aplicados de la complejidad en economía han tomado tantas direcciones y han sido tan frenéticos en las últimas décadas, que no existe un trabajo reciente, hasta donde conocemos, que los compile y los analice de forma integrada. El objetivo de este proyecto, por tanto, es desarrollar un estado situacional de las diferentes aplicaciones conceptuales, teóricas, metodológicas y tecnológicas de las ciencias de la complejidad en la economía. Asimismo, se pretende analizar las tendencias recientes en el estudio de la complejidad de los sistemas económicos y los horizontes que las ciencias de la complejidad ofrecen de cara al abordaje de los fenómenos económicos del mundo globalizado contemporáneo.

Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

Synthesis, structure and reactivity of novel CuI, CuII and CuIII complexes containing triaza and hexaaza macrocyclic ligands

El treball de tesi s'emmarca dins del camp de la bioinorgànica, disciplina que estudia les propietats estructurals i de reactivitat dels centres actius dels enzims, servint-se de models síntètics de baix pes molecular per tal d'intentar reproduïr la reactivitat presentada per l'enzim i conèixer els mecanismes de reacció a nivell molecular que tenen lloc en els processos biològics.1 Més concretament el treball posa especial èmfasi en els processos d'activació d'oxigen molecular que tenen lloc en les metaloproteïnes de Coure del Tipus 3, com són l'hemocianina i la tirosinasa, ambdues presentant un complex dinuclear de Cu(I)) en el centre actiu de la forma reduïda, capaç d'activar l'O2 cap a espècies de tipus peròxid.2 Un altre camp d'interès ha estat l'estudi dels processos d'activació d'enllaços C-H no activats en hidrocarburs, tant per la seva importàcia a nivell industrial com per comprendre els mecanismes intrínsecs d'aquesta activació a través de metalls de trancisió.3,4 Durant el treball de tesi presentat s'ha desenvolupat la síntesi de nous complexes de Coure(I), Coure(II) y Cu(III) utilitzant lligands macrocíclics de tipus triaza i hexaaza, i s'han estudiat la seves propietats estructurals així com la seva reactivitat. La reacció dels lligands triazacíclics H32m, H2Me33m i H33m amb sals de coure(II) dóna lloc a una reacció de desproporció de Cu(II) per obtenir-se en quantitats equimolars un complex organometàl·lic de Cu(III) i un complex de Cu(I). La caracterizació estructural exhaustiva dels complexes del tipus aryl-Cu(III) evidencia la formació d'un enllaç organometàl·lic entre l'àtom de Cu(III) i el carboni més próxim de l'anell aromàtic del lligand. Aquesta reacció, a més de representar una nova forma de desproporció en la química del Cu, suposa l'activació d'un enllaç C-H aromàtic a temperatura ambient que, mitjançant l'estudi cinètic d'aquesta desproporció per espectroscòpia UV-Vis, dels càlcul de l'efecte cinètic isotòpic utilitzant el lligand deuterat en el C-H de l'anell, juntament amb el recolzament teòrics dels càlculs DFT per a la optimització de geometries d'intermedis de reacció, ens permeten proposar un mecanisme de reacció pel nostre sistema, on l'activació de l'enllaç C-H aromàtic transcorre per la formació d'un enllaç de tipus agòstic C-H ? Cu(II),5 seguit de la desprotonació del C-H aromàtic per acció d'una base i posterior transferència electrònica per obtenir el complex organometàlic de Cu(III) i el complex de de Cu(I). En quant a la reactivitat d'aquests complexes organometàl·lics aryl-Cu(III) s'ha observat que una base en medi aquós causa la inestabilitat d'aquests compostos, evolucionant cap a la inserció d'un àtom d'oxigen sobre la posició activada de l'anell aromàtic, per a donar lloc a un complex dinuclear de Cu(II) amb dos grups fenoxo actuant de pont entre els àtoms metàl·lics. La reacció transcorre per un intermedi colorejat, caracteritzat com el complex ayl-Cu(III) monodesprotonat en una de les seves amines benzíliques, els quals s'observen igualment en la reacció dels correponents complexos de Cu(I) amb oxigen molecular (O2). És en els nostres sistemes en els quals es descriu per primera vegada la participació d'intermedis organometàl·lics Cu(III)-C en processos d'hidroxilació aromàtica, tals com el desenvolupat per l'enzim tirosinasa o per alguns dels seus models químics de síntesi.6,7,8 S'han estudiat les propietats magnètiques dels quatre bis(fenoxo)complexes de Cu(II) descrits, obtenint-se uns acoplaments de tipus antiferromagnètic o ferromagnètic de diversa magnitud, depenent del solapament orbitalari a l'enllaç Cu-O, a través del qual es produeix el superintercanvi. Nous complexos de Cu(I) sintetitzats amb lligands hexaazamacrocíclics han estat estudiats, i posant especial èmfasi a la seva reactivitat respecta a l'activació d'oxigen molecular (O2). S'ha observat una reactivitat diferenciada segons la concentració de complex de Cu(I) utilitzada, de manera que a altes concentracions s'obté un carbonato complex tetranuclear de Cu(II) per fixació de CO2 atmosfèric, mentre que a baixes concentracions s'observa la hidroxilació aromàtica intramolecular d'un dels anells benzílics del lligand, reacció que presumiblement transcorre per atac electrofílic d'un peroxo complex intermedi sobre el sistema ? de l'anell.6 Els resultats obtinguts en aquest treball ens mostren la facilitat per activar enllaços C-H aromàtics per metalls de transició de la primera sèrie (Cu, Ni) quan aquests estan suficientment pròxims a l'enllaç C-H, en unes condicions de reacció molt suaus (1atm., temperatura ambient). Els nous complexos organometàl·lics Aryl-Cu(III) són el producte d'una nova reacció de desproporció de Cu(II), així com un posició aromàtica activada que podria ser el punt de partida per l'estudi de funcionalització selectiva d'aquests grups aromàtics.

Cloud properties and their seasonal and diurnal variability from TOVS path-B

Eight years of cloud properties retrieved from Television Infrared Observation Satellite-N (TIROS-N) Observational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) observations aboard the NOAA polar orbiting satellites are presented. The relatively high spectral resolution of these instruments in the infrared allows especially reliable cirrus identification day and night. This dataset therefore provides complementary information to the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). According to this dataset, cirrus clouds cover about 27% of the earth and 45% of the Tropics, whereas ISCCP reports 19% and 25%, respectively. Both global datasets agree within 5% on the amount of single-layer low clouds, at 30%. From 1987 to 1995, global cloud amounts remained stable to within 2%. The seasonal cycle of cloud amount is in general stronger than its diurnal cycle and it is stronger than the one of effective cloud amount, the latter the relevant variable for radiative transfer. Maximum effective low cloud amount over ocean occurs in winter in SH subtropics in the early morning hours and in NH midlatitudes without diurnal cycle. Over land in winter the maximum is in the early afternoon, accompanied in the midlatitudes by thin cirrus. Over tropical land and in the other regions in summer, the maximum of mesoscale high opaque clouds occurs in the evening. Cirrus also increases during the afternoon and persists during night and early morning. The maximum of thin cirrus is in the early afternoon, then decreases slowly while cirrus and high opaque clouds increase. TOVS extends information of ISCCP during night, indicating that high cloudiness, increasing during the afternoon, persists longer during night in the Tropics and subtropics than in midlatitudes. A comparison of seasonal and diurnal cycle of high cloud amount between South America, Africa, and Indonesia during boreal winter has shown strong similarities between the two land regions, whereas the Indonesian islands show a seasonal and diurnal behavior strongly influenced by the surrounding ocean. Deeper precipitation systems over Africa than over South America do not seem to be directly reflected in the horizontal coverage and mesoscale effective emissivity of high clouds.

The co-occurrence of autism and Williams syndrome: a case study report

This paper describes a longitudinal case study detailing the communication profile of one child with both Williams syndrome (WS) and autism. The participant was administered two standardized assessments of language and general cognitive abilities. His parents completed the Pre-Verbal Communication Schedule; and a sample of the child's spontaneous interaction was analyzed. The results show that this child presents with markedly delayed language and communication skills and that his communication profile is the opposite of the assumed 'typical' WS profile. The conclusion is that clinicians need to be aware of the co-occurrence of genetic disorders, such as WS and autism in order to facilitate accurate diagnosis and effective treatment.

Molecular dynamics simulation of interactions between a sodium dodecyl sulfate micelle and a poly(ethylene oxide) polymer

We have performed atomistic molecular dynamics simulations of an anionic sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) micelle and a nonionic poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO) polymer in aqueous solution. The micelle consisted of 60 surfactant molecules, and the polymer chain lengths varied from 20 to 40 monomers. The force field parameters for PEO were adjusted by using 1,2-dimethoxymethane (DME) as a model compound and matching its hydration enthalpy and conformational behavior to experiment. Excellent agreement with previous experimental and simulation work was obtained through these modifications. The simulated scaling behavior of the PEO radius of gyration was also in close agreement with experimental results. The SDS-PEO simulations show that the polymer resides on the micelle surface and at the hydrocarbon-water interface, leading to a selective reduction in the hydrophobic contribution to the solvent-accessible surface area of the micelle. The association is mainly driven by hydrophobic interactions between the polymer and surfactant tails, while the interaction between the polymer and sulfate headgroups on the micelle surface is weak. The 40-monomer chain is mostly wrapped around the micelle, and nearly 90% of the monomers are adsorbed at low PEO concentration. Simulations were also performed with multiple 20-monomer chains, and gradual addition of polymer indicates that about 120 monomers are required to saturate the micelle surface. The stoichiometry of the resulting complex is in close agreement with experimental results, and the commonly accepted "beaded necklace" structure of the SDS-PEO complex is recovered by our simulations.

Use of Megasphaera elsdenii NCIMB41125 as a probiotic for early-lactation dairy cows: effects on rumen pH and fermentation patterns

Multiparous rumen-fistulated Holstein cows were fed, from d 1 to 28 post-calving, an ad libitum TMR containing (g/kg DM) grass silage (196), corn silage (196), wheat (277), soybean meal (100), and other feeds (231) with CP, NDF, starch and water soluble carbohydrate concentrations of 176, 260, 299 and 39 g/kg DM respectively and ME of 12.2 MJ/kg DM. Treatments consisting of a minimum of 1010 cfu Megasphaera elsdenii NCIMB 41125 in 250 ml solution (MEGA) or 250 ml of autoclaved M. elsdenii (CONT) were administered via the rumen cannula on d 3 and 12 of lactation (n=7 per treatment). Mid-rumen pH was measured every 15 minutes and eating and ruminating behavior was recorded for 24 h on d 2, 4, 6, 8, 11, 13, 15, 17, 22 and 28. Rumen fluid for VFA and lactic acid (LA) analysis was collected at 11 timepoints on each of d 2, 4, 6, 13 and 15. Data were analysed as repeated measures using the Glimmix (LA data) or Mixed (all other data) procedures of SAS with previous 305 d milk yield and d 2 measurements as covariates where appropriate. Milk yield was higher (CONT 43.0 vs MEGA 45.4 ±0.75 kg/d, P=0.051) and fat concentration was lower (CONT 45.6 vs MEGA 40.4 ±1.05 g/kg, P=0.005) in cows that received MEGA. Time spent eating (263 ±15 min/d) and ruminating (571 ±13 min/d), DM intake (18.4 ±0.74 kg/d), proportion of each 24 h period with rumen pH below 5.6 (3.69 ±0.94 h) and LA concentrations (2.00 mM) were similar (P>0.327) across treatments. Ruminal total VFA concentration (104 ±3 mM) was similar (P=0.404) across treatments, but a shift from acetate (CONT 551 vs MEGA 524 ±14 mmol/mol VFA, P=0.161) to propionate production (CONT 249 vs MEGA 275 ±11 mmol/mol VFA, P=0.099) meant that the acetate:propionate ratio (CONT 2.33 vs MEGA 1.94 ±0.15) was reduced (P=0.072) in cows that received MEGA. This study provides evidence that supplementation of early lactation dairy cows with MEGA alters rumen fermentation patterns in favour of propionate, with potential benefits for animal health and productivity.

Optimal control of nonlinear differential algebraic equation systems

A novel iterative procedure is described for solving nonlinear optimal control problems subject to differential algebraic equations. The procedure iterates on an integrated modified linear quadratic model based problem with parameter updating in such a manner that the correct solution of the original non-linear problem is achieved. The resulting algorithm has a particular advantage in that the solution is achieved without the need to solve the differential algebraic equations . Convergence aspects are discussed and a simulation example is described which illustrates the performance of the technique. 1. Introduction When modelling industrial processes often the resulting equations consist of coupled differential and algebraic equations (DAEs). In many situations these equations are nonlinear and cannot readily be directly reduced to ordinary differential equations.

Nonlinear data assimilation in geosciences: an extremely efficient particle filter

Almost all research fields in geosciences use numerical models and observations and combine these using data-assimilation techniques. With ever-increasing resolution and complexity, the numerical models tend to be highly nonlinear and also observations become more complicated and their relation to the models more nonlinear. Standard data-assimilation techniques like (ensemble) Kalman filters and variational methods like 4D-Var rely on linearizations and are likely to fail in one way or another. Nonlinear data-assimilation techniques are available, but are only efficient for small-dimensional problems, hampered by the so-called ‘curse of dimensionality’. Here we present a fully nonlinear particle filter that can be applied to higher dimensional problems by exploiting the freedom of the proposal density inherent in particle filtering. The method is illustrated for the three-dimensional Lorenz model using three particles and the much more complex 40-dimensional Lorenz model using 20 particles. By also applying the method to the 1000-dimensional Lorenz model, again using only 20 particles, we demonstrate the strong scale-invariance of the method, leading to the optimistic conjecture that the method is applicable to realistic geophysical problems. Copyright c 2010 Royal Meteorological Society