Modelling total duration of traffic incidents including incident detection and recovery time

Traffic incidents are key contributors to non-recurrent congestion, potentially generating significant delay. Factors that influence the duration of incidents are important to understand so that effective mitigation strategies can be implemented. To identify and quantify the effects of influential factors, a methodology for studying total incident duration based on historical data from an ‘integrated database’ is proposed. Incident duration models are developed using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. The models include incident detection and recovery time as components of incident duration. A hazard-based duration modelling approach is applied to model incident duration as a function of a variety of factors that influence traffic incident duration. Parametric accelerated failure time survival models are developed to capture heterogeneity as a function of explanatory variables, with both fixed and random parameters specifications. The analysis reveals that factors affecting incident duration include incident characteristics (severity, type, injury, medical requirements, etc.), infrastructure characteristics (roadway shoulder availability), time of day, and traffic characteristics. The results indicate that event type durations are uniquely different, thus requiring different responses to effectively clear them. Furthermore, the results highlight the presence of unobserved incident duration heterogeneity as captured by the random parameter models, suggesting that additional factors need to be considered in future modelling efforts.

A non-profit design-led innovation journey

Non-profit organisations in the aged care sector are currently under pressure from more than just a sheer increase of customers. A need to respond to changing legislative requirements, increased expectations from customers and increasing likelihood of shortage in appropriate experienced staff are also contributing to instability within the sector. This paper will present a longitudinal action research study of a non-profit organisation revisiting its core purpose of providing relevant services and attempting to build a customer-centric method for addressing the current and upcoming change drivers in an Australian aged care context. The study found Design- Led Innovation to be an effective methodology for capturing deep customer insights and conceptualising new business models which address the prevalent change drivers. This paper details a design-led approach to innovation, tailored to a non-profit organisation seeking to better understand its stakeholders and redefine its value offering.

A robust methodology for developing an operational systems view of mine water interactions

The Minerals Council of Australia’s (MCA) Water Accounting Framework (WAF) is an industry lead initiative to enable cross company communication and comparisons of water management performance. The WAF consists of two models, the Input-Output Model that represents water interactions between an operation and its surrounding environment and the Operational Model that represents water interactions within an operation. Recently, MCA member companies have agreed to use the Input-Output Model to report on their external water interactions in Australian operations, with some adopting it globally. The next step will be to adopt the Operational Model. This will expand the functionality of the WAF from corporate reporting to allowing widespread identification of inefficiencies and to connect internal and external interactions. Implementing the WAF, particularly the Operational Model, is non-trivial. It can be particularly difficult for operations that are unfamiliar with the WAF definitions and methodology, lack information pertaining to flow volumes or contain unusual configurations. Therefore, there is a need to help industry with its implementation. This work presents a step-by-step guide to producing the Operational Model. It begins by describing a methodology for implementing the Operational Model by describing the identification of pertinent objects (stores, tasks and treatments), quantification of flows, aggregation of objects and production of reports. It then discusses how the Operational Model can represent a series of challenging scenarios and how it can be connected with Input-Output Model to improve water management.

Validation of a container ship model for parametric rolling

The objective of this work is to formulate a nonlinear, coupled model of a container ship during parametric roll resonance, and to validate the model using experimental data.

Exact parametric confidence intervals for Bland-Altman limits of agreement

Purpose The previous literature on Bland-Altman analysis only describes approximate methods for calculating confidence intervals for 95% Limits of Agreement (LoAs). This paper describes exact methods for calculating such confidence intervals, based on the assumption that differences in measurement pairs are normally distributed. Methods Two basic situations are considered for calculating LoA confidence intervals: the first where LoAs are considered individually (i.e. using one-sided tolerance factors for a normal distribution); and the second, where LoAs are considered as a pair (i.e. using two-sided tolerance factors for a normal distribution). Equations underlying the calculation of exact confidence limits are briefly outlined. Results To assist in determining confidence intervals for LoAs (considered individually and as a pair) tables of coefficients have been included for degrees of freedom between 1 and 1000. Numerical examples, showing the use of the tables for calculating confidence limits for Bland-Altman LoAs, have been provided. Conclusions Exact confidence intervals for LoAs can differ considerably from Bland and Altman’s approximate method, especially for sample sizes that are not large. There are better, more precise methods for calculating confidence intervals for LoAs than Bland and Altman’s approximate method, although even an approximate calculation of confidence intervals for LoAs is likely to be better than none at all. Reporting confidence limits for LoAs considered as a pair is appropriate for most situations, however there may be circumstances where it is appropriate to report confidence limits for LoAs considered individually.

Making trouble: Ethnographic designs on ruling relations for students and teachers in non-academic pathways

Since 2009, all Australian states require young people to be ‘earning or learning’ until age 17. Secondary schools and vocational colleges now accommodate students for whom the conventional academic pathways of the past were not designed. The paper reflects on a project designed to explore the moral orders in these institutional settings for managing such students in extended compulsory schooling. Originally designed as classroom ethnographies, the project involved observations over three to four weeks and interviews with teachers and students in five sites in towns experiencing high youth unemployment. The project aimed to support teachers to work productively in such classrooms with such students, under the assumption that teachers orchestrate classroom interactions. However, it became clear events in these classrooms were being shaped by relations and parties above and beyond the classroom, as much as by those present. Teachers and students were observed to both comply with, and push against, the layers of policy and institutional processes regulating their behaviours. This paper re-thinks the original project through the gaze and resources of institutional ethnography, to better account for the layers of accountabilities and documentation practices that impacted on both teacher and student behaviours. By tracing the extended webs of ‘ruling relations’, it shows both how teachers and students could make trouble for the institutional moral order, and then be held accountable for this trouble.

Stochastic analysis of a radial-inflow turbine in the presence of parametric uncertainties

This paper presents an uncertainty quantification study of the performance analysis of the high pressure ratio single stage radial-inflow turbine used in the Sundstrand Power Systems T-100 Multi-purpose Small Power Unit. A deterministic 3D volume-averaged Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solver is coupled with a non-statistical generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) representation based on a pseudo-spectral projection method. One of the advantages of this approach is that it does not require any modification of the CFD code for the propagation of random disturbances in the aerodynamic and geometric fields. The stochastic results highlight the importance of the blade thickness and trailing edge tip radius on the total-to-static efficiency of the turbine compared to the angular velocity and trailing edge tip length. From a theoretical point of view, the use of the gPC representation on an arbitrary grid also allows the investigation of the sensitivity of the blade thickness profiles on the turbine efficiency. The gPC approach is also applied to coupled random parameters. The results show that the most influential coupled random variables are trailing edge tip radius coupled with the angular velocity.

Motor response suppression and the prepotent tendency to respond: A parametric fMRI study

In the present study we utilised functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine cerebral activation during performance of a classic motor task in which response suppression load was parametrically varied. Linear increases in activity were observed in a distributed network of regions across both cerebral hemispheres, although with more extensive involvement of the right prefrontal cortex. Activated regions included prefrontal, parietal and occipitotemporal cortices. Decreasing activation was similarly observed in a distributed network of regions. These response forms are discussed in terms of an increasing requirement for visual cue discrimination and suppression/selection of motor responses, and a decreasing probability of the occurrence of non-target stimuli and attenuation of a prepotent tendency to respond. The results support recent proposals for a dominant role for the right-hemisphere in performance of motor response suppression tasks that emphasise the importance of the right prefrontal cortex.

Nonparametric rank regression for analyzing water quality concentration data with multiple detection limits

Environmental data usually include measurements, such as water quality data, which fall below detection limits, because of limitations of the instruments or of certain analytical methods used. The fact that some responses are not detected needs to be properly taken into account in statistical analysis of such data. However, it is well-known that it is challenging to analyze a data set with detection limits, and we often have to rely on the traditional parametric methods or simple imputation methods. Distributional assumptions can lead to biased inference and justification of distributions is often not possible when the data are correlated and there is a large proportion of data below detection limits. The extent of bias is usually unknown. To draw valid conclusions and hence provide useful advice for environmental management authorities, it is essential to develop and apply an appropriate statistical methodology. This paper proposes rank-based procedures for analyzing non-normally distributed data collected at different sites over a period of time in the presence of multiple detection limits. To take account of temporal correlations within each site, we propose an optimal linear combination of estimating functions and apply the induced smoothing method to reduce the computational burden. Finally, we apply the proposed method to the water quality data collected at Susquehanna River Basin in United States of America, which dearly demonstrates the advantages of the rank regression models.

Elastic analysis of pin joints in plates under some combined pin and plate loads

Joints are primary sources of weakness in structures. Pin joints are very common and are used where periodic disassembly of components is needed. A circular pin in a circular hole in an infinitely large plate is an abstraction of such a pin joint. A two-dimensional plane-stress analysis of such a configuration is carried out, here, subjected to pin-bearing and/or biaxial-plate loading. The pin is assumed to be rigid compared to the plate material. For pin load the reactive stresses at the edges of the infinite plate tend to zero though their integral over the external boundary equals to the pin load. The pin-hole interface is unbonded and so beyond some load levels the plate separates from the pin and the extent of separation is a non-linear function of load level. The problem is solved by inverse technique where the extent of contact is specified and the causative loads are evaluated directly. In the situations where combined load is acting the separation-contact zone specification generally needs two parameters (angles) to be specified. The present report deals with analysing such a situation in metallic (or isotropic) plates. Numerical results are provided for parametric representation and the methodology is demonstrated.

Predicting Additive and Non-additive Genetic Effects from Trials Where Traits Are Affected by Interplot Competition

There are two key types of selection in a plant breeding program, namely selection of hybrids for potential commercial use and the selection of parents for use in future breeding. Oakey et al. (in Theoretical and Applied Genetics 113, 809-819, 2006) showed how both of these aims could be achieved using pedigree information in a mixed model analysis in order to partition genetic effects into additive and non-additive effects. Their approach was developed for field trial data subject to spatial variation. In this paper we extend the approach for data from trials subject to interplot competition. We show how the approach may be used to obtain predictions of pure stand additive and non-additive effects. We develop the methodology in the context of a single field trial using an example from an Australian sorghum breeding program.

Non-linear and linear postulations of technology adoption determinants

Using polynomial regression and response surface analysis to examine the non-linearity between variables, this study demonstrates that better analytical nuances are required to investigate the relationships between constructs when the underlying theories suggest non-linearity. By utilising the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), Ettlie’s adoption stages as well as employing data gathered from 162 owners of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), our findings reveal that subjective norms and attitude have differing influences upon behavioural intention in both the evaluation and trial stages of the adoption.

CFD analysis of high frequency miniature pulse tube refrigerators for space applications with thermal non-equilibrium model

High frequency, miniature, pulse tube cryocoolers are extensively used in space applications because of their simplicity. Parametric studies of inertance type pulse tube cooler are performed with different length-to-diameter ratios of the pulse tube with the help of the FLUENT (R) package. The local thermal non-equilibrium of the gas and the matrix is taken into account for the modeling of porous zones, in addition to the wall thickness of the components. Dynamic characteristics and the actual mechanism of energy transfer in pulse are examined with the help of the pulse tube wall time constant. The heat interaction between pulse tube wall and the oscillating gas, leading to surface heat pumping, is quantified. The axial heat conduction is found to reduce the performance of the pulse tube refrigerator. The thermal non-equilibrium predicts a higher cold heat exchanger temperature compared to thermal equilibrium. The pressure drop through the porous medium has a strong non-linear effect due to the dominating influence of Forchheimer term over that of the linear Darcy term at high operating frequencies. The phase angle relationships among the pressure, temperature and the mass flow rate in the porous zones are also important in determining the performance of pulse tuberefrigerator.

Non-Gaussian Cosmological Perturbations from Hybrid Inflation and Preheating

This thesis consists of four research papers and an introduction providing some background. The structure in the universe is generally considered to originate from quantum fluctuations in the very early universe. The standard lore of cosmology states that the primordial perturbations are almost scale-invariant, adiabatic, and Gaussian. A snapshot of the structure from the time when the universe became transparent can be seen in the cosmic microwave background (CMB). For a long time mainly the power spectrum of the CMB temperature fluctuations has been used to obtain observational constraints, especially on deviations from scale-invariance and pure adiabacity. Non-Gaussian perturbations provide a novel and very promising way to test theoretical predictions. They probe beyond the power spectrum, or two point correlator, since non-Gaussianity involves higher order statistics. The thesis concentrates on the non-Gaussian perturbations arising in several situations involving two scalar fields, namely, hybrid inflation and various forms of preheating. First we go through some basic concepts -- such as the cosmological inflation, reheating and preheating, and the role of scalar fields during inflation -- which are necessary for the understanding of the research papers. We also review the standard linear cosmological perturbation theory. The second order perturbation theory formalism for two scalar fields is developed. We explain what is meant by non-Gaussian perturbations, and discuss some difficulties in parametrisation and observation. In particular, we concentrate on the nonlinearity parameter. The prospects of observing non-Gaussianity are briefly discussed. We apply the formalism and calculate the evolution of the second order curvature perturbation during hybrid inflation. We estimate the amount of non-Gaussianity in the model and find that there is a possibility for an observational effect. The non-Gaussianity arising in preheating is also studied. We find that the level produced by the simplest model of instant preheating is insignificant, whereas standard preheating with parametric resonance as well as tachyonic preheating are prone to easily saturate and even exceed the observational limits. We also mention other approaches to the study of primordial non-Gaussianities, which differ from the perturbation theory method chosen in the thesis work.

Non-Gaussianities and Preheating from N-flation and Magnetogenesis via rotating cosmic string loops

In this thesis we examine multi-field inflationary models of the early Universe. Since non-Gaussianities may allow for the possibility to discriminate between models of inflation, we compute deviations from a Gaussian spectrum of primordial perturbations by extending the delta-N formalism. We use N-flation as a concrete model; our findings show that these models are generically indistinguishable as long as the slow roll approximation is still valid. Besides computing non-Guassinities, we also investigate Preheating after multi-field inflation. Within the framework of N-flation, we find that preheating via parametric resonance is suppressed, an indication that it is the old theory of preheating that is applicable. In addition to studying non-Gaussianities and preheatng in multi-field inflationary models, we study magnetogenesis in the early universe. To this aim, we propose a mechanism to generate primordial magnetic fields via rotating cosmic string loops. Magnetic fields in the micro-Gauss range have been observed in galaxies and clusters, but their origin has remained elusive. We consider a network of strings and find that rotating cosmic string loops, which are continuously produced in such networks, are viable candidates for magnetogenesis with relevant strength and length scales, provided we use a high string tension and an efficient dynamo.