Future development of gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality rates in Switzerland: a tumour registry- and population-based projection up to 2030.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Since tumour burden consumes substantial healthcare resources, precise cancer incidence estimations are pivotal to define future needs of national healthcare. This study aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates of oesophageal, gastric, pancreatic, hepatic and colorectal cancers up to 2030 in Switzerland. METHODS: Swiss Statistics provides national incidences and mortality rates of various cancers, and models of future developments of the Swiss population. Cancer incidences and mortality rates from 1985 to 2009 were analysed to estimate trends and to predict incidence and mortality rates up to 2029. Linear regressions and Joinpoint analyses were performed to estimate the future trends of incidences and mortality rates. RESULTS: Crude incidences of oesophageal, pancreas, liver and colorectal cancers have steadily increased since 1985, and will continue to increase. Gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates reveal an ongoing decrease. Pancreatic and liver cancer crude mortality rates will keep increasing, whereas colorectal cancer mortality on the contrary will fall. Mortality from oesophageal cancer will plateau or minimally increase. If we consider European population-standardised incidence rates, oesophageal, pancreatic and colorectal cancer incidences are steady. Gastric cancers are diminishing and liver cancers will follow an increasing trend. Standardised mortality rates show a diminution for all but liver cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The oncological burden of gastrointestinal cancer will significantly increase in Switzerland during the next two decades. The crude mortality rates globally show an ongoing increase except for gastric and colorectal cancers. Enlarged healthcare resources to take care of these complex patient groups properly will be needed.

The forced adoption of a fast-track appraisal process for a breast cancer treatment in UK

Trastuzumab (Herceptin ®, Roche) is approved in UK for the treatment of the metastatic breast cancer since 2001. As of 2005, concomitantly with the publication of 3 studies that showed it produces a 50% reduction of the recurrence rates of breast cancer, trastuzumab started to be prescribed in the earlt adjuvant treatrnent of this disease. Und June 2006, trastuzumab did not have both: 1) regulatory approval and 2) NICE [National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence] recommendation for the use in early stages of breast cancer. During the period until June 2006, the trastuzumab use in those patients was not reimbursed and because the cost of trastuzumab is equal with the yearly UK average income, most of patients could not self fund their treatrnent. Before the publication of the final NICE guidance, the new data of trastuzumab in early breast cancer raised enormous patient and professional interest and expectations. A great volume of public and professional pressure was generated to transcend a system by which Primary Care Trusts can reimburse a treatment only after a formal guidance was issued. This paper draw on a case study depicting and analyzing the process by which regulatory approval and NICE recommendations were achieved in a record time and how trastuzumab became a standard treatment on early adjuvant breast cancer. According to the data we gathered in this work we were witnessing one of the fastest processes of adoption of a health care technology since the creation of NICE, in 1999. This study addresses the following research question: How and why does the adoption pattern of trastuzumab differ from the rational decision-making model of the reimbursement process in UK? [Author, p. 4]

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.

Mechanical Design of Hydraulic Vise

The general task of clamping devise is to connect the parts to the machining centers so that the work piece could be fixed on its position during the whole machining process. Additionally, the work piece should be clamped easily and rapidly by the machine users. The purpose of this Master’s thesis project was to develop a product design and find out the dimensioning of a hydraulic vise system for Astex Engineering OY, which was taking care of the general principles of product design and development during the design process. Throughout the process, the needs of manufacturing and assembling were taken into consideration for the machinability and minimization of the cost of manufacturing. The most critical component of the clamping devise was modeled by FEM for the issue of strength requirements. This 3D model was created with Solidworks and FEM-analysis was done with Cosmos software. As the result of this design work, a prototype of the hydraulic vise was manufactured for Astex Engineering OY and the practical test.

Development a distributed simulation environment on a cluster of workstations

Simulation has traditionally been used for analyzing the behavior of complex real world problems. Even though only some features of the problems are considered, simulation time tends to become quite high even for common simulation problems. Parallel and distributed simulation is a viable technique for accelerating the simulations. The success of parallel simulation depends heavily on the combination of the simulation application, algorithm and message population in the simulation is sufficient, no additional delay is caused by this environment. In this thesis a conservative, parallel simulation algorithm is applied to the simulation of a cellular network application in a distributed workstation environment. This thesis presents a distributed simulation environment, Diworse, which is based on the use of networked workstations. The distributed environment is considered especially hard for conservative simulation algorithms due to the high cost of communication. In this thesis, however, the distributed environment is shown to be a viable alternative if the amount of communication is kept reasonable. Novel ideas of multiple message simulation and channel reduction enable efficient use of this environment for the simulation of a cellular network application. The distribution of the simulation is based on a modification of the well known Chandy-Misra deadlock avoidance algorithm with null messages. The basic Chandy Misra algorithm is modified by using the null message cancellation and multiple message simulation techniques. The modifications reduce the amount of null messages and the time required for their execution, thus reducing the simulation time required. The null message cancellation technique reduces the processing time of null messages as the arriving null message cancels other non processed null messages. The multiple message simulation forms groups of messages as it simulates several messages before it releases the new created messages. If the message population in the simulation is suffiecient, no additional delay is caused by this operation A new technique for considering the simulation application is also presented. The performance is improved by establishing a neighborhood for the simulation elements. The neighborhood concept is based on a channel reduction technique, where the properties of the application exclusively determine which connections are necessary when a certain accuracy for simulation results is required. Distributed simulation is also analyzed in order to find out the effect of the different elements in the implemented simulation environment. This analysis is performed by using critical path analysis. Critical path analysis allows determination of a lower bound for the simulation time. In this thesis critical times are computed for sequential and parallel traces. The analysis based on sequential traces reveals the parallel properties of the application whereas the analysis based on parallel traces reveals the properties of the environment and the distribution.

Regional variability in the impact of human capital on regional growth

The first objective of this study is to furnish new evidence concerning the aggregate profitability of the accumulation of human capital. In addition to the traditional measure of the return to human capital, combining the information on its shadow price with the social cost of providing education allows us to confirm the profitability of human capital investments as a tool for promoting economic growth. The possibility of obtaining estimations of these effects for each Spanish region enables us to empirically evaluate the amount of heterogeneity across economies in the effects of human capital. As a second objective, we provide evidence on the indirect effect of human capital in making private capital investment more attractive. Among the main explanations for this process, we observe that higher worker skill levels enable higher returns to be extracted from investment in physical capital.

Effects of the epitaxial layer thickness on the noise properties of Schottky barrier diodes

An analytical theory to describe the combined effects of the epitaxial layer thickness and the ohmic contact on the noise properties of Schottky barrier diodes is presented. The theory, which provides information on both the local and the global noise properties, takes into account the finite size of the epitaxial layer and the effects of the back ohmic contact, and applies to the whole range of applied bias. It is shown that by scaling down the epitaxial layer thickness, the current regime in which the noise temperature displays a shot-noise-like behavior increases at the cost of reducing the current range in which the thermal-noise-like behavior dominates. This improvement in noise temperature is limited by the effects of the ohmic contact, which appear for large currents. The theory is formulated on general trends, allowing its application to the noise analysis of other semiconductor devices operating under strongly inhomogeneous distributions of the electric field and charge concentrations.

Effects of the epitaxial layer thickness on the noise properties of Schottky barrier diodes

An analytical theory to describe the combined effects of the epitaxial layer thickness and the ohmic contact on the noise properties of Schottky barrier diodes is presented. The theory, which provides information on both the local and the global noise properties, takes into account the finite size of the epitaxial layer and the effects of the back ohmic contact, and applies to the whole range of applied bias. It is shown that by scaling down the epitaxial layer thickness, the current regime in which the noise temperature displays a shot-noise-like behavior increases at the cost of reducing the current range in which the thermal-noise-like behavior dominates. This improvement in noise temperature is limited by the effects of the ohmic contact, which appear for large currents. The theory is formulated on general trends, allowing its application to the noise analysis of other semiconductor devices operating under strongly inhomogeneous distributions of the electric field and charge concentrations.

Citation auctions as a method to improve selection of scientific papers

This paper describes the basis of citation auctions as a new approach to selecting scientific papers for publication. Our main idea is to use an auction for selecting papers for publication through - differently from the state of the art - bids that consist of the number of citations that a scientist expects to receive if the paper is published. Hence, a citation auction is the selection process itself, and no reviewers are involved. The benefits of the proposed approach are two-fold. First, the cost of refereeing will be either totally eliminated or significantly reduced, because the process of citation auction does not need prior understanding of the paper's content to judge the quality of its contribution. Additionally, the method will not prejudge the content of the paper, so it will increase the openness of publications to new ideas. Second, scientists will be much more committed to the quality of their papers, paying close attention to distributing and explaining their papers in detail to maximize the number of citations that the paper receives. Sample analyses of the number of citations collected in papers published in years 1999-2004 for one journal, and in years 2003-2005 for a series of conferences (in a totally different discipline), via Google scholar, are provided. Finally, a simple simulation of an auction is given to outline the behaviour of the citation auction approach

Small scale energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan area in emission trading point of view

Emission trading with greenhouse gases and green certificates are part if the climate policy the main target of which is reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The carbon dioxide and fine particle emissions of energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan area are calculated in this study. The analysis is made mainly by district heating point of view and the changes of the district heating network are assessed. Carbon dioxide emissions would be a bit higher, if the district heating network is expanded, but then the fine particle emissions would be much lower. Carbon dioxide emissions are roughly 10 % higher, if the district heating network is expanded at same rate as it has in past five years in the year 2030. The expansion of district heating network would decrease the fine particle emissions about 40 %. The cost of the expansion is allocated to be reduction cost of the fine particle emissions, which is considerably higher than the traditional reduction methods costs. The possible new nuclear plant would reduce the emissions considerably and the costs of the nuclear plant would be relatively low comparing the other energy production methods.

Conservation Genetics of Exploited Finnish Salmonid Fishes

Genetic diversity is one of the levels of biodiversity that the World Conservation Union (IUCN) has recognized as being important to preserve. This is because genetic diversity is fundamental to the future evolution and to the adaptive flexibility of a species to respond to the inherently dynamic nature of the natural world. Therefore, the key to maintaining biodiversity and healthy ecosystems is to identify, monitor and maintain locally-adapted populations, along with their unique gene pools, upon which future adaptation depends. Thus, conservation genetics deals with the genetic factors that affect extinction risk and the genetic management regimes required to minimize the risk. The conservation of exploited species, such as salmonid fishes, is particularly challenging due to the conflicts between different interest groups. In this thesis, I conduct a series of conservation genetic studies on primarily Finnish populations of two salmonid fish species (European grayling, Thymallus thymallus, and lake-run brown trout, Salmo trutta) which are popular recreational game fishes in Finland. The general aim of these studies was to apply and develop population genetic approaches to assist conservation and sustainable harvest of these populations. The approaches applied included: i) the characterization of population genetic structure at national and local scales; ii) the identification of management units and the prioritization of populations for conservation based on evolutionary forces shaping indigenous gene pools; iii) the detection of population declines and the testing of the assumptions underlying these tests; and iv) the evaluation of the contribution of natural populations to a mixed stock fishery. Based on microsatellite analyses, clear genetic structuring of exploited Finnish grayling and brown trout populations was detected at both national and local scales. Finnish grayling were clustered into three genetically distinct groups, corresponding to northern, Baltic and south-eastern geographic areas of Finland. The genetic differentiation among and within population groups of grayling ranged from moderate to high levels. Such strong genetic structuring combined with low genetic diversity strongly indicates that genetic drift plays a major role in the evolution of grayling populations. Further analyses of European grayling covering the majority of the species’ distribution range indicated a strong global footprint of population decline. Using a coalescent approach the beginning of population reduction was dated back to 1 000-10 000 years ago (ca. 200-2 000 generations). Forward simulations demonstrated that the bottleneck footprints measured using the M ratio can persist within small populations much longer than previously anticipated in the face of low levels of gene flow. In contrast to the M ratio, two alternative methods for genetic bottleneck detection identified recent bottlenecks in six grayling populations that warrant future monitoring. Consistent with the predominant role of random genetic drift, the effective population size (N_e) estimates of all grayling populations were very low with the majority of N_e estimates below 50. Taken together, highly structured local populations, limited gene flow and the small N_e of grayling populations indicates that grayling populations are vulnerable to overexploitation and, hence, monitoring and careful management using the precautionary principles is required not only in Finland but throughout Europe. Population genetic analyses of lake-run brown trout populations in the Inari basin (northernmost Finland) revealed hierarchical population structure where individual populations were clustered into three population groups largely corresponding to different geographic regions of the basin. Similar to my earlier work with European grayling, the genetic differentiation among and within population groups of lake-run brown trout was relatively high. Such strong differentiation indicated that the power to determine the relative contribution of populations in mixed fisheries should be relatively high. Consistent with these expectations, high accuracy and precision in mixed stock analysis (MSA) simulations were observed. Application of MSA to indigenous fish caught in the Inari basin identified altogether twelve populations that contributed significantly to mixed stock fisheries with the Ivalojoki river system being the major contributor (70%) to the total catch. When the contribution of wild trout populations to the fisheries was evaluated regionally, geographically nearby populations were the main contributors to the local catches. MSA also revealed a clear separation between the lower and upper reaches of Ivalojoki river system – in contrast to lower reaches of the Ivalojoki river that contributed considerably to the catch, populations from the upper reaches of the Ivalojoki river system (>140 km from the river mouth) did not contribute significantly to the fishery. This could be related to the available habitat size but also associated with a resident type life history and increased cost of migration. The studies in my thesis highlight the importance of dense sampling and wide population coverage at the scale being studied and also demonstrate the importance of critical evaluation of the underlying assumptions of the population genetic models and methods used. These results have important implications for conservation and sustainable fisheries management of Finnish populations of European grayling and brown trout in the Inari basin.

Magnetic sputtering of complex oxides

HTSC materials are relevant in modern microelectronics, because of their transformation from the normal state to the superconducting. That is why the idea of producing HTSC in industrial amounts is actual nowadays. To decrease cost of their production it is important to use magnetron sputtering systems which give the best results for essential parameters. Modeling is the simplest and the fastest way to determine optimum sputtering condition. This thesis concentrates on determination the phases of the whole sputtering process and to find out basic factors of each phase using the modeling. It was find out, that the main factors which influence on the mode of occurrence of the initial stages are the current density of the magnetron discharge and the pressure of sputtering gas. With the modeling also velocity dependences were obtained for YBCO and SmFeAsO. These were compared and difference between them was examined. To support represented model comparison was made with experimental results. This showed that the model gives good results, very similar to the experimental ones. The results of this work were published in annual conference of the finnish physical society.

Segmentation of Industrial Customers – Case: Finnish Mechanical Engineering Companies

Segmentointi on perinteisesti ollut erityisesti kuluttajamarkkinoinnin työkalu, mutta siirtymä tuotteista palveluihin on lisännyt segmentointitarvetta myös teollisilla markkinoilla. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoite on löytää selkeästi toisistaan erottuvia asiakasryhmiä suomalaisen liikkeenjohdon konsultointiyritys Synocus Groupin tarjoaman case-materiaalin pohjalta. K-means-klusteroinnin avulla löydetään kolme potentiaalista markkinasegmenttiä perustuen siihen, mitkä tarjoamaelementit 105 valikoitua suomalaisen kone- ja metallituoteteollisuuden asiakasta ovat maininneet tärkeimmiksi. Ensimmäinen klusteri on hintatietoiset asiakkaat, jotka laskevat yksikkökohtaisia hintoja. Toinen klusteri koostuu huolto-orientoituneista asiakkaista, jotka laskevat tuntikustannuksia ja maksimoivat konekannan käyttötunteja. Tälle kohderyhmälle kannattaisi ehkä markkinoida teknisiä palveluja ja huoltosopimuksia. Kolmas klusteri on tuottavuussuuntautuneet asiakkaat, jotka ovat kiinnostuneita suorituskyvyn kehittämisestä ja laskevat tonnikohtaisia kustannuksia. He tavoittelevat alempia kokonaiskustannuksia lisääntyneen suorituskyvyn, pidemmän käyttöiän ja alempien huoltokustannusten kautta.

First-Line Chemotherapy with Anthracycline and Taxane Combination in Metastatic Breast Cancer. Detection of bone metastases with TRACP 5b

Background: In Finland, breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer among women, and prostate cancer (PC) that among men. At the metastatic stage both cancers remain essentially incurable. The goals of therapy include palliation of symptoms, improvement or maintenance of quality of life (QoL), delay of disease progression, and prolongation of survival. Balancing between efficacy and toxicity is the major challenge. With increasing costs of new treatments, appropriate use of resources is paramount. When new treatment regimes are introduced into clinical practice a comprehensive assessment of clinical benefit, adverse effects and cost is necessary. Both BC and PC show a predilection to metastasize to bone. Bone metastases cause significant morbidity impairing the patients´ QoL. Diagnosis of bone metastases relies mainly on radiological methods, which however lack optimal sensitivity and specificity. New tools are needed for detection and follow-up of bone metastases. Aims: Anthracyclines and taxanes are effective chemotherapeutic agents in the treatment of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) with different mechanisms of action. Therefore, evaluation of the combination of anthracyclines with taxanes was a justifiable approach in the treatment of MBC patients. We assessed the efficacy, toxicity, cost of treatment and QoL of BC patients treated with first-line chemotherapy for metastatic disease with the combination epirubicin and docetaxel. We also evaluated the diagnostic potential of tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase 5b (TRACP 5b) and carboxyterminal telopeptides of type I collagen (ICTP) in the diagnosis of bone metastases in BC and TRACP 5b in PC patients. Results: The combination of epirubicin and docetaxel was effective in this phase II study, but required individual dose adjustment to avoid neutropenic infections, and the use of growth factors to maintain a feasible dose level. The response rate was 54 % (95 % CI 37-71) and the median overall survival (OS) was 26 months. Of the patients, 87 % were treated for infections. The treatment of adverse events required additional use of health resources mainly due to neutropenic infections, thereby raising direct treatment costs by 20 %. Despite adverse events, the global QoL was not significantly compromised during the treatment. Clinically evident acute cardiac toxicity was not observed. The combination of serum TRACP 5b and ICTP was at least equally sensitive and specific in detection of of bone metastases as commonly used total alkaline phosphatise (tALP) in BC patients. In contrast, TRACP 5b was less specific and sensitive than tALP as a marker of skeletal changes in PC patients. Conclusions: Treatment with epirubicin and docetaxel showed high efficacy in first-line chemotherapy of MBC. The relatively high incidence of neutropenic infections requiring hospitalization increased the treatment costs. Despite adverse events, the global QoL of the patients was not significantly compromised. The combination of TRACP 5b and ICTP showed similar activity as tALP in detecting bone metastases in MBC. In contrast, TRACP 5b was less specific and sensitive than tALP as a marker of skeletal changes in PC.

Applications of graph transformation in tools for domain-specific modeling languages

The use of domain-specific languages (DSLs) has been proposed as an approach to cost-e ectively develop families of software systems in a restricted application domain. Domain-specific languages in combination with the accumulated knowledge and experience of previous implementations, can in turn be used to generate new applications with unique sets of requirements. For this reason, DSLs are considered to be an important approach for software reuse. However, the toolset supporting a particular domain-specific language is also domain-specific and is per definition not reusable. Therefore, creating and maintaining a DSL requires additional resources that could be even larger than the savings associated with using them. As a solution, di erent tool frameworks have been proposed to simplify and reduce the cost of developments of DSLs. Developers of tool support for DSLs need to instantiate, customize or configure the framework for a particular DSL. There are di erent approaches for this. An approach is to use an application programming interface (API) and to extend the basic framework using an imperative programming language. An example of a tools which is based on this approach is Eclipse GEF. Another approach is to configure the framework using declarative languages that are independent of the underlying framework implementation. We believe this second approach can bring important benefits as this brings focus to specifying what should the tool be like instead of writing a program specifying how the tool achieves this functionality. In this thesis we explore this second approach. We use graph transformation as the basic approach to customize a domain-specific modeling (DSM) tool framework. The contributions of this thesis includes a comparison of di erent approaches for defining, representing and interchanging software modeling languages and models and a tool architecture for an open domain-specific modeling framework that e ciently integrates several model transformation components and visual editors. We also present several specific algorithms and tool components for DSM framework. These include an approach for graph query based on region operators and the star operator and an approach for reconciling models and diagrams after executing model transformation programs. We exemplify our approach with two case studies MICAS and EFCO. In these studies we show how our experimental modeling tool framework has been used to define tool environments for domain-specific languages.