Low-frequency volatility of real estate securities in relation to macroeconomic risk

Real estate securities have a number of distinct characteristics that differentiate them from stocks generally. Key amongst them is that under-pinning the firms are both real as well as investment assets. The connections between the underlying macro-economy and listed real estate firms is therefore clearly demonstrated and of heightened importance. To consider the linkages with the underlying macro-economic fundamentals we extract the ‘low-frequency’ volatility component from aggregate volatility shocks in 11 international markets over the 1990-2014 period. This is achieved using Engle and Rangel’s (2008) Spline-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (Spline-GARCH) model. The estimated low-frequency volatility is then examined together with low-frequency macro data in a fixed-effect pooled regression framework. The analysis reveals that the low-frequency volatility of real estate securities has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies examined. These include interest rates, inflation, GDP and foreign exchange rates.

Electronegative Low-Density Lipoprotein is Associated with Dense Low-Density Lipoprotein in Subjects with Different Levels of Cardiovascular Risk

Dyslipidemias and physicochemical changes in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) are very important factors for the development of coronary artery disease (CAD). However, pathophysiological properties of electronegative low-density lipoprotein [LDL(-)] remain a controversial issue. Our objective was to investigate LDL(-) content in LDL and its subfractions (phenotypes A and B) of subjects with different cardiovascular risk. Seventy-three subjects were randomized into three groups: normolipidemic (N; n = 30) and hypercholesterolemic (HC; n = 33) subjects and patients with CAD (n = 10). After fasting, blood samples were collected and total, dense and light LDL were isolated. LDL(-) content in total LDL and its subfractions was determined by ELISA. LDL(-) content in total LDL was lower in the N group as compared to the HC (P < 0.001) and CAD (P = 0.006) groups. In the total sample and in those of the N, HC, and CAD groups, LDL(-) content in dense LDL was higher than in light LDL (P = 0.001, 0.001, 0.001, and 0.033, respectively) The impact of LDL(-) on cardiovascular risk was reinforced when LDL(-) content in LDL showed itself to have a positive association with total cholesterol (beta = 0.003; P < 0.001), LDL-C (beta = 0.003; p < 0.001), and non-HDL-C (beta = 0.003; P < 0.001) and a negative association with HDL-C (beta = -0.32; P = 0.04). Therefore, LDL(-) is an important biomarker that showed association with the lipid profile and the level of cardiovascular risk.

Cathepsin S as a biomarker of low-grade inflammation, insulin resistance, and cardiometabolic disease risk

Cathepsin S is a protease important in major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II antigen presentation and also in degrading the extracellular matrix. Studies, most of them experimental, have shown that cathepsin S is involved in different pathological conditions such as obesity, inflammation, atherosclerosis, diabetes, and cancer.    The overall hypothesis of this report is that high levels of circulating cathepsin S, is a biomarker that reflects pathology induced by inflammation and obesity. The overall aim of this report was to investigate possible associations between circulating cathepsin S, inflammation, glucometabolic disturbance, and its associated diseases in the community. As cathepsin S appears to be a novel risk marker for several pathological conditions, we also wanted to examine the effect of dietary intervention on circulating cathepsin S concentrations.    This thesis is based on data from three community-based cohorts, the Uppsala longitudinal study of adult men (ULSAM), the prospective investigation of the vasculature in Uppsala seniors (PIVUS), and a post-hoc study from the randomized controlled NORDIET trial.    In the first study, we identified a cross-sectional positive association between serum cathepsin S and two markers of cytokine-mediated inflammation, CRP and IL-6. These associations were similar in non-obese individuals. In longitudinal analyses, higher cathepsin S at baseline was associated with higher CRP and IL-6 levels after six years of follow-up. In the second study, we identified a cross-sectional association between increased serum levels of cathepsin S and reduced insulin sensitivity. These associations were similar in non-obese individuals. No significant association was observed between cathepsin S and insulin secretion. In longitudinal analysis, higher cathepsin S levels were associated with an increased risk of developing diabetes during the six-year follow-up. In the third study, we found that higher serum levels of cathepsin S were associated with increased mortality risk. Moreover, in the ULSAM cohort, serum cathepsin S was independently associated with cause-specific mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer. In the fourth study, we identified that adherence to an ad libitum healthy Nordic diet for 6 weeks slightly decreased the levels of plasma cathepsin S in normal or marginally overweight individuals, relative to the control group. Changes in circulating cathepsin S concentrations were correlated with changes in body weight, LDL-C, and total cholesterol.    Conclusion: This thesis shows that circulating cathepsin S is a biomarker that independently reflects inflammation, insulin resistance, the risk of developing diabetes, and mortality risk. Furthermore, a Nordic diet moderately reduced cathepsin S levels in normal-weight and overweight men and women. This effect may be partially mediated by diet-induced weight loss and possibly by reduced LDL-C concentrations. 

No consensus on gestational diabetes mellitus screening regimes in Sweden : pregnancy outcomes in relation to different screening regimes 2011 to 2012, a cross-sectional study

Background: Although associated adverse pregnancy outcomes, no international or Swedish consensus exists that identifies a cut-off value or what screening method to use for definition of gestational diabetes mellitus. This study investigates the following: i) guidelines for screening of GDM; ii) background and risk factors for GDM and selection to OGTT; and iii) pregnancy outcomes in relation to GDM, screening regimes and levels of OGTT 2 hour glucose values. Methods: This cross-sectional and population-based study uses data from the Swedish Maternal Health Care Register (MHCR) (2011 and 2012) combined with guidelines for GDM screening (2011-2012) from each Maternal Health Care Area (MHCA) in Sweden. The sample consisted of 184, 183 women: 88, 140 in 2011 and 96,043 in 2012. Chi-square and two independent samples t-tests were used. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. Results: Four screening regimes of oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) (75 g of glucose) were used: A) universal screening with a 2-hour cut-off value of 10.0 mmol/L; B) selective screening with a 2-hour cut-off value of 8.9 mmol/L; C) selective screening with a 2-hour cut-off value of 10.0 mmol/L; and D) selective screening with a 2-hour cut-off value of 12.2 mmol/L. The highest prevalence of GDM (2.9%) was found with a 2-hour cut-off value of 8.9 mmol/L when selective screening was applied. Unemployment and low educational level were associated with an increased risk of GDM. The OR was 4.14 (CI 95%: 3.81-4.50) for GDM in obese women compared to women with BMI <30 kg/m(2). Women with non-Nordic origin presented a more than doubled risk for GDM compared to women with Nordic origin (OR = 2.24; CI 95%: 2.06-2.43). Increasing OGTT values were associated with increasing risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Conclusions: There was no consensus regarding screening regimes for GDM from 2011 through 2012 when four different regimes were applied in Sweden. Increasing levels of OGTT 2-hour glucose values were strongly associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. Based on these findings, we suggest that Sweden adopts the recent recommendations of the International Association of Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Group (IADPSG) concerning the performance of OGTT and the diagnostic criteria for GDM.

Microinsurance: income risk, social security and the demand for private onsurance by low-income families

Insurance provision against uncertainties is present in several dimensions of peoples´s lives, such as the provisions related to, inter alia, unemployment, diseases, accidents, robbery and death. Microinsurance improves the ability of low-income individuals to cope with these risks. Brazil has a fairly developed financial system but still not geared towards the poor, especially in what concerns the insurance industry. The evaluation of the microinsurance effects on well-being, and the demand for different types of microinsurance require an analysis of the dynamics of the individual income process and an assessment of substitutes and complementary institutions that condition their respective financial behavior. The evaluation of the microinsurance effects on well-being, and the demand for different types of microinsurance require an analysis of the dynamics of the individual income process and an assessment of substitutes and complementary institutions that condition their respective financial behavior. The Brazilian government provides a relatively developed social security system considering other countries of similar income level which crowds-out the demand for insurance and savings. On the other hand, this same public infrastructure may help to foster microfinance products supply. The objective of this paper is to analyze the demand for different types of private insurance by the low-income population using microdata from a National Expenditure Survey (POF/IBGE). The final objective is to help to understand the trade-offs faced for the development of an emerging industry of microinsurance in Brazil.

Acquisition of motor abilities up to independent walking in very low birth weight preterm infants

Objective: To determine chronological and corrected ages at acquisition of motor abilities up to independent walking in very low birth weight preterms and to determine up to what point it is necessary to use corrected age.Methods: This was a longitudinal study of preterms with birth weight < 1,500 g and gestational age <= 34 weeks, free from neurosensory sequelae, selected at the high-risk infants follow-up clinic at the Hospital das Clinicas, Faculdade de Medicine de Botucatu, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) in Botucatu, Brazil, between 1998 to 2003, and assessed every 2 months until acquisition of independent walking.Results: Nine percent of the 155 preterms recruited were excluded from the study, leaving a total of 143 patients. The mean gestational age was 30 +/- 2 weeks, birth weight was 1,130 +/- 222 g, 59% were female and 44% were small for gestational age. Preterms achieved head control in their second month, could sit independent at 7 months and walked at 12.8 months' corrected age, corresponding to the 4th, 9th and 15th months of chronological age. There were significant differences between chronological age and corrected age for all motor abilities. Preterms who were small for their gestational age acquired motor abilities later, but still within expected limits.Conclusions: Very low birth weight preterms, free from neurosensory disorders, acquired their motor abilities within the ranges expected for their corrected ages. Corrected age should be used until independent walking is achieved.

Assessment of risk factors for low bone mineral density in Brazilian postmenopausal women

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mild gestational hyperglycaemia as a risk factor for metabolic syndrome in pregnancy and adverse perinatal outcomes

Objective The aims of this study were to evaluate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) in a cohort of pregnant women with a wide range of glucose tolerance, pre-pregnancy risk factors for MS during pregnancy and the effects of MS in the occurrence of adverse perinatal outcomes.Research Design and Methods One hundred and thirty six women with positive screening for gestational diabetes (GDM) were classified by two diagnostic methods: glycaemic profile and 100 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) as normoglycaemic, mild gestational hyperglycaemic, GDM, and overt GDM. Markers of insulin resistance were measured between 24-28 and 36th week of gestation, and 6 weeks after delivery.Results The prevalence of MS was 0; 20.0; 23.5 and 36.4% in normoglycaemic, mild hyperglycaemic, GDM and overt GDM groups, respectively. Previous history of GDM with or without insulin use, body mass index (BMI) >= 25, hypertension, family history of diabetes in first-degree relatives, non-Caucasian ethnicity, history of prematurity and polyhydramnios were statistically significant pre-pregnancy predictors for MS in the index pregnancy, that by its turn increased the occurrence of adverse perinatal outcomes (p = 0.01).Conclusions The prevalence of MS increases with the worsening of glucose tolerance and is an independent predictor of adverse perinatal outcomes; impaired glycaemic profile identifies pregnancies with important metabolic abnormalities that are linked to the occurrence of adverse perinatal outcomes even in the presence of a normal OGTT, in patients that are not currently classified as having GDM. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Measurement of the nonlinear optical response of low-density lipoprotein solutions from patients with periodontitis before and after periodontal treatment: evaluation of cardiovascular risk markers

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Cigarette smoking and high-risk HPV DNA as predisposing factors for high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) in young Brazilian women

Background. This cross-sectional study was designed to evaluate the role of cigarette smoking and high-risk HPV types as risk factors of CIN 2 and 3 in young, sexually active Brazilian women. Materials and method. A series of 100 consecutive women with abnormal Pap smears were recruited, subjected to colposcopy, punch biopsy, and questionnaire for their social, sexual and reproductive factors. Of these, 77 women between 20 and 35 years of age (median 26.5 years) with biopsy-confirmed CIN 1 or CIN 2 and 3, were enrolled in this study. Representative samples from the exocervix and endocervix were obtained for HPV testing with the Hybrid Capture HPV-DNA assay, including the probes for the oncogenic HPV types (16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 45, 51, 52 and 56). Results. The overall rate of CIN 2 and 3 was 23/77 (29.8%). The women with CIN 1, 2 and 3 did not differ from each other with regard to their age, race, schooling, marital status, life-time number of sexual partners, age at first intercourse, use of oral contraceptives, or parity. However, current cigarette smoking was strongly associated with CIN 2 and 3 (p < 0,001), and among smokers, the risk of high-grade CIN increased in parallel with the time of exposure (years of smoking) p = 0.07), HPV-DNA of the oncogenic types was detected in 43 (56%) women, the risk of being HPV DNA-positive was significantly higher in CIN 2 and 3 as compared with CIN 1 (p = 0.037). Importantly, the prevalence of high-risk HPV types was significantly higher in cigarette smokers than in non-smokers (p = 0.046). Conclusions. The results indicate that the severity of CIN lesions was clearly related to two fundamental risk factors: 1) high-risk HPV types, and 2) current cigarette smoking. These two risk factors were closely interrelated in that the high-risk HPV types were significantly more frequent in current smokers than in non-smokers, suggesting the possibility of a synergistic action between these two risk factors in cervical carcinogenesis.

Risk factors for perinatal death in two different levels of care: a case-control study

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Impact of gestational diabetes and lactational insulin replacement on structure and secretory function of offspring rat ventral prostate

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Late-Onset Sepsis in very Low Birth Weight Infants: A Brazilian Neonatal Research Network Study

Background: Late-onset sepsis (LOS) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants.Aim: To determine the incidence, risk factors and etiology of LOS.Methods: LOS was investigated in a multicenter prospective cohort of infants at eight public university neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). Inclusion criteria included inborn, 23-33 weeks of gestational age, 400-1499 g birth weight, who survived >3 days.Results: Of 1507 infants, 357 (24%) had proven LOS and 345 (23%) had clinical LOS. Infants with LOS were more likely to die. The majority of infections (76%) were caused by Gram-positive organisms. Independent risk factors for proven LOS were use of central venous catheter and mechanical ventilation, age at the first feeding and number of days on parenteral nutrition and on mechanical ventilation.Conclusion: LOS incidence and mortality are high in Brazilian VLBW infants. Most risk factors are associated with routine practices at NICU.

Lipoprotein Lipase and PPAR Alpha Gene Polymorphisms, Increased Very-Low-Density Lipoprotein Levels, and Decreased High-Density Lipoprotein Levels as Risk Markers for the Development of Visceral Leishmaniasis by Leishmania infantum

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Adequacy of antenatal care and its relationship with low birth weight in Botucatu, Sao Paulo, Brazil: a case-control study

Background: Birth weight reflects gestational conditions and development during the fetal period. Low birth weight (LBW) may be associated with antenatal care (ANC) adequacy and quality. The purpose of this study was to analyze ANC adequacy and its relationship with LBW in the Unified Health System in Brazil.Methods: A case-control study was conducted in Botucatu, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2004 to 2008. Data were collected from secondary sources (the Live Birth Certificate), and primary sources (the official medical records of pregnant women). The study population consisted of two groups, each with 860 newborns. The case group comprised newborns weighing less than 2,500 grams, while the control group comprised live newborns weighing greater than or equal to 2,500 grams. Adequacy of ANC was evaluated according to three measurements: 1. Adequacy of the number of ANC visits adjusted to gestational age; 2. Modified Kessner Index; and 3. Adequacy of ANC laboratory studies and exams summary measure according to parameters defined by the Ministry of Health in the Program for Prenatal and Birth Care Humanization.Results: Analyses revealed that LBW was associated with the number of ANC visits adjusted to gestational age (OR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.32-2.34) and the ANC laboratory studies and exams summary measure (OR = 4.13, 95% CI 1.36-12.51). According to the modified Kessner Index, 64.4% of antenatal visits in the LBW group were adequate, with no differences between groups.Conclusions: Our data corroborate the association between inadequate number of ANC visits, laboratory studies and exams, and increased risk of LBW newborns. No association was found between the modified Kessner Index as a measure of adequacy of ANC and LBW. This finding reveals the low indices of coverage for basic actions already well regulated in the Health System in Brazil. Despite the association found in the study, we cannot conclude that LBW would be prevented only by an adequate ANC, as LBW is associated with factors of complex and multifactorial etiology. The results could be used to plan monitoring measures and evaluate programs of health care assistance during pregnancy, at delivery and to newborns, focusing on reduced LBW rates.