How institutions shaped the last major evolutionary transition to large-scale human societies.

What drove the transition from small-scale human societies centred on kinship and personal exchange, to large-scale societies comprising cooperation and division of labour among untold numbers of unrelated individuals? We propose that the unique human capacity to negotiate institutional rules that coordinate social actions was a key driver of this transition. By creating institutions, humans have been able to move from the default ‘Hobbesian’ rules of the ‘game of life’, determined by physical/environmental constraints, into self-created rules of social organization where cooperation can be individually advantageous even in large groups of unrelated individuals. Examples include rules of food sharing in hunter–gatherers, rules for the usage of irrigation systems in agriculturalists, property rights and systems for sharing reputation between mediaeval traders. Successful institutions create rules of interaction that are self-enforcing, providing direct benefits both to individuals that follow them, and to individuals that sanction rule breakers. Forming institutions requires shared intentionality, language and other cognitive abilities largely absent in other primates. We explain how cooperative breeding likely selected for these abilities early in the Homo lineage. This allowed anatomically modern humans to create institutions that transformed the self-reliance of our primate ancestors into the division of labour of large-scale human social organization.

ENGINEERING DIGITAL SHARING PLATFORM TO CREATE SOCIAL CONTAGION: EVIDENCE FROM LARGE SCALE RANDOMIZED FIELD EXPERIMENTS

Peer-to-peer information sharing has fundamentally changed customer decision-making process. Recent developments in information technologies have enabled digital sharing platforms to influence various granular aspects of the information sharing process. Despite the growing importance of digital information sharing, little research has examined the optimal design choices for a platform seeking to maximize returns from information sharing. My dissertation seeks to fill this gap. Specifically, I study novel interventions that can be implemented by the platform at different stages of the information sharing. In collaboration with a leading for-profit platform and a non-profit platform, I conduct three large-scale field experiments to causally identify the impact of these interventions on customers’ sharing behaviors as well as the sharing outcomes. The first essay examines whether and how a firm can enhance social contagion by simply varying the message shared by customers with their friends. Using a large randomized field experiment, I find that i) adding only information about the sender’s purchase status increases the likelihood of recipients’ purchase; ii) adding only information about referral reward increases recipients’ follow-up referrals; and iii) adding information about both the sender’s purchase as well as the referral rewards increases neither the likelihood of purchase nor follow-up referrals. I then discuss the underlying mechanisms. The second essay studies whether and how a firm can design unconditional incentive to engage customers who already reveal willingness to share. I conduct a field experiment to examine the impact of incentive design on sender’s purchase as well as further referral behavior. I find evidence that incentive structure has a significant, but interestingly opposing, impact on both outcomes. The results also provide insights about senders’ motives in sharing. The third essay examines whether and how a non-profit platform can use mobile messaging to leverage recipients’ social ties to encourage blood donation. I design a large field experiment to causally identify the impact of different types of information and incentives on donor’s self-donation and group donation behavior. My results show that non-profits can stimulate group effect and increase blood donation, but only with group reward. Such group reward works by motivating a different donor population. In summary, the findings from the three studies will offer valuable insights for platforms and social enterprises on how to engineer digital platforms to create social contagion. The rich data from randomized experiments and complementary sources (archive and survey) also allows me to test the underlying mechanism at work. In this way, my dissertation provides both managerial implication and theoretical contribution to the phenomenon of peer-to-peer information sharing.

Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Optimization of the large scale synthesis of the LSF-20 cathode material for SOFCs

Póster presentado en: 21st World Hydrogen Energy Conference 2016. Zaragoza, Spain. 13-16th June, 2016

Large-scale neural dynamics: simple and complex

We review the use of neural field models for modelling the brain at the large scales necessary for interpreting EEG, fMRI, MEG and optical imaging data. Albeit a framework that is limited to coarse-grained or mean-field activity, neural field models provide a framework for unifying data from different imaging modalities. Starting with a description of neural mass models we build to spatially extended cortical models of layered two-dimensional sheets with long range axonal connections mediating synaptic interactions. Reformulations of the fundamental non-local mathematical model in terms of more familiar local differential (brain wave) equations are described. Techniques for the analysis of such models, including how to determine the onset of spatio-temporal pattern forming instabilities, are reviewed. Extensions of the basic formalism to treat refractoriness, adaptive feedback and inhomogeneous connectivity are described along with open challenges for the development of multi-scale models that can integrate macroscopic models at large spatial scales with models at the microscopic scale.

Incorporating Critically Conscious Assessment into a Large Scale Information Literacy Program

Lesson plan published in Critical Pedagogy Handbook, vol. 2

Large scale laboratory cultures of Ankistrodesmus gracilis (Reisch) Korsikov (Chlorophyta) and Diaphanosoma biergei Korinek, 1981 (Cladocera)

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o cultivo em larga escala de Ankistrodesmus gracilis e Diaphanososma birgei em laboratório através do estudo da biologia das espécies, composição bioquímica e custo operacional de produção. A. gracilis apresentou um crescimento exponencial até o sexto dia, ao redor de 144 x 10(4) células mL-1. Logo em seguida, sofreu um brusco decréscimo apresentando 90 x 10(4) células mL-1 (oitavo dia). A partir do décimo primeiro dia, as células algais tenderam a crescer novamente, apresentando um máximo de 135 x 10(4) células mL-1 no 17º dia. No cultivo de D. birgei, foi observado o primeiro pico de crescimento no nono dia com 140 x 10² indivíduos L-1, aumentando novamente a partir do décimo segundo dia. A alga clorofícea A. gracilis e o zooplâncton D. birgei possuem aproximadamente 50 e 70% de proteína (PS), respectivamente, com teor de carboidrato acima de 5%. A eletricidade e mão de obra foram os itens mais dispendiosos e, de acordo com os dados obtidos, a temperatura, nutrientes, disponibilidade de luz e manejo do cultivo, foram fatores determinantes sobre a produtividade. Os resultados indicam que o meio NPK (20-5-20) pode ser utilizado diretamente como uma alternativa de cultivo em larga escala, considerando o baixo custo de produção, promovendo adequado crescimento e valor nutricional para A. gracilis e D. birgei.

Performance and economic indicators of a large scale fish farming in Mato Grosso, Brazil

Performance and economic indicators of a large scale fish farm that produces round fish, located in Mato Grosso State, Brazil, were evaluated. The 130.8 ha-water surface area was distributed in 30 ponds. Average total production costs and the following economic indicators were calculated: gross income (GI), gross margin (GM), gross margin index (GMI), profitability index (PI) and profit (P) for the farm as a whole and for ten ponds individually. Production performance indicators were also obtained, such as: production cycle (PC), apparent feed conversion (FC), average biomass storage (ABS), survival index (SI) and final average weight (FAW). The average costs to produce an average 2.971 kg.ha-1 per year were: R$ 2.43, R$ 0.72 and R$ 3.15 as average variable, fixed and total costs, respectively. Gross margin and profit per year per hectare of water surface were R$ 2,316.91 and R$ 180.98, respectively. The individual evaluation of the ponds showed that the best pond performance was obtained for PI 38%, FC 1.7, ABS 0.980 kg.m-2, TS 56%, FAW 1.873 kg with PC of 12.3 months. The worst PI was obtained for the pond that displayed losses of 138%, FC 2.6, ABS 0.110 kg.m-2, SI 16% and FAW 1.811 kg. However, large scale production of round-fish in farms is economically feasible. The studied farm displays favorable conditions to improve performance and economic indicators, but it is necessary to reproduce the breeding techniques and performance indicators achieved in few ponds to the entire farm.

New results on H∞ filtering for nonlinear large-scale systems with interconnected time-varying delays

This paper proposes a new design method of H∞ filtering for nonlinear large-scale systems with interconnected time-varying delays. The interaction terms with interval time-varying delays are bounded by nonlinear bounding functions including all states of the subsystems. A stable linear filter is designed to ensure that the filtering error system is exponentially stable with a prescribed convergence rate. By constructing a set of improved Lyapunov functions and using generalized Jensen inequality, new delay-dependent conditions for designing H∞ filter are obtained in terms of linear matrix inequalities. Finally, an example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed result.

High-dimensional and large-scale anomaly detection using a linear one-class SVM with deep learning

High-dimensional problem domains pose significant challenges for anomaly detection. The presence of irrelevant features can conceal the presence of anomalies. This problem, known as the '. curse of dimensionality', is an obstacle for many anomaly detection techniques. Building a robust anomaly detection model for use in high-dimensional spaces requires the combination of an unsupervised feature extractor and an anomaly detector. While one-class support vector machines are effective at producing decision surfaces from well-behaved feature vectors, they can be inefficient at modelling the variation in large, high-dimensional datasets. Architectures such as deep belief networks (DBNs) are a promising technique for learning robust features. We present a hybrid model where an unsupervised DBN is trained to extract generic underlying features, and a one-class SVM is trained from the features learned by the DBN. Since a linear kernel can be substituted for nonlinear ones in our hybrid model without loss of accuracy, our model is scalable and computationally efficient. The experimental results show that our proposed model yields comparable anomaly detection performance with a deep autoencoder, while reducing its training and testing time by a factor of 3 and 1000, respectively.

An LMI-based functional estimation scheme of large-scale time-delay systems with strong interconnections

In this paper, the problem of distributed functional state observer design for a class of large-scale interconnected systems in the presence of heterogeneous time-varying delays in the interconnections and the local state vectors is considered. The resulting observer scheme is suitable for strongly coupled subsystems with multiple time-varying delays, and is shown to give better results for systems with very strong interconnections while only some mild existence conditions are imposed. A set of existence conditions are derived along with a computationally simple observer constructive procedure. Based on the Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional method (LKF) in the framework of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), delay-dependent conditions are derived to obtain the observer parameters ensuring the exponential convergence of the observer error dynamics. The effectiveness of the obtained results is illustrated and tested through a numerical example of a three-area interconnected system.

Evaluations of treatment efficacy of depression from perspective of both patients' symptoms and general sense of mental health and wellbeing: a large scale, multi-centered, longitudinal study in China

Relying on the absence, presence of level of symptomatology may not provide an adequate indication of the effects of treatment for depression, nor sufficient information for the development of treatment plans that meet patients' needs. Using a prospective, multi-centered, and observational design, the present study surveyed a large sample of outpatients with depression in China (n=9855). The 17-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HRSD-17) and the Remission Evaluation and Mood Inventory Tool (REMIT) were administered at baseline, two weeks later and 4 weeks, to assess patients' self-reported symptoms and general sense of mental health and wellbeing. Of 9855 outpatients, 91.3% were diagnosed as experiencing moderate to severe depression. The patients reported significant improvement over time on both depressive symptoms and general sense after 4-week treatment. The effect sizes of change in general sense were lower than those in symptoms at both two week and four week follow-up. Treatment effects on both general sense and depressive symptomatology were associated with demographic and clinical factors. The findings indicate that a focus on both general sense of mental health and wellbeing in addition to depressive symptomatology will provide clinicians, researchers and patients themselves with a broader perspective of the status of patients.