Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca.60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca.11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by less than 10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared to the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of less than 20% compared to current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

The inhibition of N2O production by ocean acidification in cold temperate and polar waters

The effects of ocean acidification (OA) on nitrous oxide (N2O) production and on the community composition of ammonium oxidizing archaea (AOA) were examined in the northern and southern sub-polar and polar Atlantic Ocean. Two research cruises were performed during June 2012 between the North Sea and Arctic Greenland and Barent Seas, and in January–February 2013 to the Antarctic Scotia Sea. Seven stations were occupied in all during which shipboard experimental manipulations of the carbonate chemistry were performed through additions of NaHCO3−+HCl in order to examine the impact of short-term (48 h for N2O and between 96 and 168 h for AOA) exposure to control and elevated conditions of OA. During each experiment, triplicate incubations were performed at ambient conditions and at 3 lowered levels of pH which varied between 0.06 and 0.4 units according to the total scale and which were targeted at CO2 partial pressures of ~500, 750 and 1000 µatm. The AOA assemblage in both Arctic and Antarctic regions was dominated by two major archetypes that represent the marine AOA clades most often detected in seawater. There were no significant changes in AOA assemblage composition between the beginning and end of the incubation experiments. N2O production was sensitive to decreasing pHT at all stations and decreased by between 2.4% and 44% with reduced pHT values of between 0.06 and 0.4. The reduction in N2O yield from nitrification was directly related to a decrease of between 28% and 67% in available NH3 as a result of the pH driven shift in the NH3:NH4+ equilibrium. The maximum reduction in N2O production at conditions projected for the end of the 21st century was estimated to be 0.82 Tg N y−1.

Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.

Identidad territorial y paisaje. Evolución morfológica de los núcleos en Castilla y León.

Este estudio intenta esclarecer las transformaciones físicas y socioeconómicas de los asentamientos rurales de la región española de Castilla y León, durante la segunda mitad del siglo XX. Se analiza la evolución temporal de la forma urbana a través de un Sistema de Información Geográfico (SIG), calculando unos índices métricos y comparándolos con la información demográfica histórica. Los resultados pretenden mostrar los efectos de la especialización funcional económica, causada por la integración en las jerarquías productivas globales, sobre la estructura urbana. La pérdida gradual de las características tradicionales de los pueblos castellanos, como la compacidad y la integración en el entorno, debido a la pérdida o degradación de la arquitectura popular y la construcción de nuevas edificaciones industriales, supone un riesgo para las futuras políticas de desarrollo local. Se considera necesario preservar la identidad paisajística y evitar la destrucción del patrimonio cultural para poder revitalizar estos territorios.

AUSTRALIA’S STRATEGIC CULTURE: An investigation of the concept of strategic culture and its application to the Australian case

The notion that each state in the international system approaches matters of war and peace somewhat differently because they each possess a unique strategic culture is not a new or obscure one – but it nevertheless remains controversial. While some scholars dismiss the utility or practicality of examining states’ cultures when seeking to explain or predict those states’ patterns of strategic decision-making, even amongst those who accept that we should pay attention to cultural differences between states when carrying out strategic analysis there remains a frustratingly eclectic range of offerings from scholars regarding how best to do so. In short, significant uncertainty remains regarding both whether strategic culture should be used as an analytical tool and, if it is so utilized, how one should go about doing so. This thesis therefore explores the concept of strategic culture in great detail, both theoretical and empirical. The opening three chapters examine why the more traditional rationalist/materialistic theories should not exclusively dominate strategic analysis, then the various existing strategic cultural offerings are considered and critiqued and, finally, a new conceptual model for strategic cultural analysis is proposed which draws from the hitherto largely neglected psychological and sociological literature. Both of these fields, it is submitted in Chapter 3, have spent more time and effort developing ways of understanding and analyzing culture than the field of IR has to date, and therefore the models and methods debated and developed in these fields should, it is argued, be ‘imported’ into IR to drive further strategic cultural research. The thesis then moves in the following six chapters to consider Australia’s strategic culture. The purpose of this part of the thesis is two-fold: first, it illustrates how the model offered in Chapter 3 works and, by implication, suggests how scholars may go about applying it to other cases. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the latter six chapters explore the twists and turns of Australia’s substantive strategic decision-making over the course of the last century or more, thereby explaining how Australia’s strategic history can be understood from a cultural perspective.

The presence of the Aragonese language in the magazine "El Ebro" (1917-1936)

El Ebro (1917-1936) was a magazine published in Barcelona by Aragonese emigrants at the beginning of the 20th century. It was the first experience of coexistence of different dialectal varieties of the Aragonese language in the same media. El Ebro was an experience that has gone virtually unnoticed in the recent history of one of the most minority languages, and with minor media presence, of Western Europe. In its pages El Ebro mixed dialects spoken in different regions of linguistic Aragonese area together with transcripts of medieval documents. At the same time, this newspaper raised debates about the language issue that they were truncated due to disappearance of the publication and the lack of theoretical realization

The Afroporteña press and Afro-Argentine’s thought in the late nineteenth century

The journalistic boom that occurred in Argentina from the second half of the nineteenth century saw the emergence of an active afroporteña press that defend the interests of the black community. This paper, in addition to reviewing the history of the Afro-Argentines newspapers, emphasizes the role played by the elite of African descent in the promotion of modernity among his brothers, while exploring the possible bases for an identity in the ideas spread.

Breaking New Ground: The First Generation of Women to Work as Professional Authors in English Canada (1880-1920)

In the later decades of the nineteenth century and the early decades of the twentieth, large numbers of Canadian women were stepping out of the shadows of private life and into the public world of work and political action. Among them, both a cause and an effect of these sweeping social changes, was the first generation of Canadian women to work as professional authors. Although these women were not unified by ideology, genre, or date of birth, they are studied here as a generation defined by their time and place in history, by their material circumstances, and by their collective accomplishment. Chapters which focus on E. Pauline Johnson (Tekahionwake), the Eaton sisters (Sui Sin Far and Onoto Watanna), Joanna E. Wood, and Sara Jeannette Duncan explore some of the many commonalities and interrelationships among the members of this generation as a whole. This project combines archival research with analytical bibliography in order to clarify and extend our knowledge of Johnson’s and Duncan’s professional lives and publishing histories, and to recover some of Wood’s “lost” stories. This research offers a preliminary sketch of the long tradition of the platform performance (both Native and non-Native) with which Johnson and others engaged. It explores the uniquely innovative ethnographic writings of Johnson, Duncan, and the Eaton sisters, among others, and it explores thematic concerns which relate directly to the experiences of working women. Whether or not I convince other scholars to treat these authors as a generation, with more in common than has previously been supposed, the strong parallels revealed in these pages will help to clarify and contextualize some of their most interesting work.

Dynamic analysis of employment trajectories through the concept of fl exicurity

The paper presents a dynamic study of the Spanish labour market which tries to determine if it matches the characteristics of transitional labour markets from a fl exicurity approach. Employment trajectories of Spanish workers during the years 2007-2010 are studied using the Continuous Sample of Working Lives. This period covers the end of the expansion of the Spanish economy and the beginning of the current employment crisis. From the combination of the chosen topic, the approach, and the database used, this is a novel perspective in our country. The article shows evidence of the evolution of the employment and unemployment spells, the Spanish labour market turnover degree, and the diffi culties of some groups for carrying out transition between employment and unemployment. The results obtained show a labour market in which a) transitions have come to a halt, and b) there is high job insecurity.

The Voice as Transcursive Inscriber: The Relation of Body and Instrument Understood through the Workings of a Machine

This article examines the relationship of the body with a musical instrument; specifically it looks at the vital threshold conditions that occur during the interplay of voice and instrument. By examining the work ‘IKAS’ (1982) for solo saxophone by German composer Hans-Joachim Hespos, the unusual timbral relationships created between vocal and instrumental sounds are exposed. I argue that this particular work highlights the performer/instrument relation as one marked by Gilles Deleuze’s notion of the workings of a machine and a machine’s relation to a ‘flow’, in particular a machine’s function with view to the break in the flow. By turning towards Deleuze’s concept of the machine, this article offers a slightly different vocabulary for music analysis, one that more easily encompasses certain works of the twentieth century, specifically those that are more timbre- than pitch-based.

The Secular Beyond: Free Religious Dissent and Debates over the Afterlife in Nineteenth-Century Germany

Toward the end of the first third of the nineteenth century, German writers began to favor a new metaphor for the afterlife: “das Jenseits” (“the Beyond”). At first glance, the emergence of such a term may appear to have little bearing on our understanding of the history of religious thought. However, as the late historian Reinhart Koselleck maintained, the study of semantic changes can betray tectonic shifts in the matrix of ideas that underpin the worlds of politics, learning, and religion. Drawing on Koselleck's method of conceptual history, the following essay takes the popularization of “the Beyond” as a point of departure for investigating secularization and secularism as two linked, yet distinct, sources of pressure on the fault lines of nineteenth-century German religious thought.

Inscribir el declive en el tiempo. Detroit: Auge y crisis de la ciudad industrial

A comienzos del siglo XX, Detroit era una ciudad dinámica en pleno desarrollo. Pronto se convirtió en la cuarta ciudad de Estados Unidos, la capital de la naciente industria automovilística. El crecimiento se prolongó hasta finales de los años 50, cuando, a pesar del auge económico de Estados Unidos y de su área metropolitana, Detroit comenzó a mostrar los primeros signos de estancamiento. La crisis se ha prolongado hasta hoy, cuando Detroit constituye el paradigma de la ciudad industrial en declive. Estas dos imágenes contrapuestas, el auge y la crisis, no parecen explicar por sí mismas las causas de la intensidad y persistencia del declive de Detroit. Analizar las interacciones entre crecimiento económico, políticas públicas locales y desarrollo urbano a lo largo del tiempo permitirá subrayar las continuidades y comprender en qué medida el declive de Detroit ancla sus raíces en el modelo planteado durante la etapa de auge.

The importance of reproductive strategies in population genetic approaches to conservation: an example from the marine angiosperm genus Zostera

Knowledge of the levels of genetic diversity maintained in natural populations can play a central role in conservation programmes, particularly in threatened habitats or species. Fluctuations in population size can lead to loss of variation and, consequently, increase the risk of extinction. We have examined whether such a genetic bottleneck has occurred in populations of two species in the seagrass genus Zostera, which are believed to have been affected by an outbreak of wasting disease at the start of the last century. A test for heterozygote excess at five nuclear microsatellite loci did not suggest the occurrence of a genetic bottleneck, but analysis of seven chloroplast microsatellite loci and sequence data from two regions did suggest a bottleneck in the chloroplast genome. Extremely low levels of between-population diversity suggest that all subpopulations can be treated as a single management unit for each species. Comparable levels of nuclear genetic diversity were found in the three populations of the primarily sexual Zostera marina var. angustifolia studied but a wider range of within-population diversity was found in Zostera noltii, which displays both. sexual and vegetative reproductive strategies. This may be due to an increase in sexual recruitment due to localised fresh water inflow into the study site near to the most diverse population. Such populations should be prioritised as source material for any replanting or remediation due to natural or anthropogenic loss of Zostera beds in the area.

Presbyterians and science in the north of Ireland before 1874

In his presidential address to the Belfast meeting of the British Association for the Advancement of Science in 1874, John Tyndall launched what David Livingstone has called a ‘frontal assault on teleology and Christian theism’. Using Tyndall's intervention as a starting point, this paper seeks to understand the attitudes of Presbyterians in the north of Ireland to science in the first three-quarters of the nineteenth century. The first section outlines some background, including the attitude of Presbyterians to science in the eighteenth century, the development of educational facilities in Ireland for the training of Presbyterian ministers, and the specific cultural and political circumstances in Ireland that influenced Presbyterian responses to science more generally. The next two sections examine two specific applications by Irish Presbyterians of the term ‘science’: first, the emergence of a distinctive Presbyterian theology of nature and the application of inductive scientific methodology to the study of theology, and second, the Presbyterian conviction that mind had ascendancy over matter which underpinned their commitment to the development of a science of the mind. The final two sections examine, in turn, the relationship between science and an eschatological reading of the signs of the times, and attitudes to Darwinian evolution in the fifteen years between the publication of The Origin of Species in 1859 and Tyndall's speech in 1874.