967 resultados para Intractable Likelihood


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In this paper, we propose a training-based channel estimation scheme for large non-orthogonal space-time block coded (STBC) MIMO systems.The proposed scheme employs a block transmission strategy where an N-t x N-t pilot matrix is sent (for training purposes) followed by several N-t x N-t square data STBC matrices, where Nt is the number of transmit antennas. At the receiver, we iterate between channel estimation (using an MMSE estimator) and detection (using a low-complexity likelihood ascent search (LAS) detector) till convergence or for a fixed number of iterations. Our simulation results show that excellent bit error rate and nearness-to-capacity performance are achieved by the proposed scheme at low complexities. The fact that we could show such good results for large STBCs (e.g., 16 x 16 STBC from cyclic division algebras) operating at spectral efficiencies in excess of 20 bps/Hz (even after accounting for the overheads meant for pilot-based channel estimation and turbo coding) establishes the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

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Many economic events involve initial observations that substantially deviate from long-run steady state. Initial conditions of this type have been found to impact diversely on the power of univariate unit root tests, whereas the impact on multivariate tests is largely unknown. This paper investigates the impact of the initial condition on tests for cointegration rank. We compare the local power of the widely used likelihood ratio (LR) test with the local power of a test based on the eigenvalues of the companion matrix. We find that the power of the LR test is increasing in the magnitude of the initial condition, whereas the power of the other test is decreasing. The behaviour of the tests is investigated in an application to price convergence.

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We revise and extend the extreme value statistic, introduced in Gupta et al., to study direction dependence in the high-redshift supernova data, arising either from departures, from the cosmological principle or due to direction-dependent statistical systematics in the data. We introduce a likelihood function that analytically marginalizes over the,Hubble constant and use it to extend our previous statistic. We also introduce a new statistic that is sensitive to direction dependence arising from living off-centre inside a large void as well as from previously mentioned reasons for anisotropy. We show that for large data sets, this statistic has a limiting form that can be computed analytically. We apply our statistics to the gold data sets from Riess et al., as in our previous work. Our revision and extension of the previous statistic show that the effect of marginalizing over the Hubble constant instead of using its best-fitting value on our results is only marginal. However, correction of errors in our previous work reduces the level of non-Gaussianity in the 2004 gold data that were found in our earlier work. The revised results for the 2007 gold data show that the data are consistent with isotropy and Gaussianity. Our second statistic confirms these results.

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This paper analyzes factors driving the design of stock option plans for Finnish firms. We examine determinants of the scope of plans, exercise price, target group, and dividend protection. The scope is found to be negatively related to Tobin’s Q and positively related to proxies for monitoring costs. The scope is also greater in broad-based plans, and in plans with dividend protection. Prior stock return is found to be negatively related to the size of the premium (out-of-the-moneyness), whereas dividend protection increases the premium. The results also suggest that investment intensity, cash flow, and monitoring costs are associated with the likelihood of granting premium (out-of-the-money) stock options. Furthermore, the likelihood of granting broad-based plans is increasing in institutional ownership and cash flow constraints, and decreasing in firm size. Broad-based plans are also more likely among firms in growth industries. We find support that the likelihood of dividend protection is decreasing in foreign ownership. In addition, firms paying zero-dividends are less likely to include dividend protection, whereas higher unsystematic risk is associated with a greater likelihood of including dividend protection.

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This paper addresses several questions in the compensation literature by examining stock option compensation practices of Finnish firms. First, the results indicate that principal-agent theory succeeds quite well in predicting the use of stock options. Proxies for monitoring costs, growth opportunities, ownership structure, and risk are found to determine the use of incentives consistent with theory. Furthermore, the paper examines whether determinants of stock options targeted to top management differ from determinants of broad-based stock option plans. Some evidence is found that factors driving these two types of incentives differ. Second, the results reveal that systematic risk significantly increases the likelihood that firms adopt stock option plans, whereas total firm risk and unsystematic risk do not seem to affect this decision. Third, the results show that growth opportunities are related to time-dimensional contracting frequency, consistent with the argument that incentive levels deviate more rapidly from optimum in firms with high growth opportunities. Finally, the results suggest that vesting schedules are decreasing in financial leverage, and that contract maturity is decreasing in firm focus. In addition, both vesting schedules and contract maturity tend to be longer in firms involving state ownership.

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The advent of large and fast digital computers and development of numerical techniques suited to these have made it possible to review the analysis of important fundamental and practical problems and phenomena of engineering which have remained intractable for a long time. The understanding of the load transfer between pin and plate is one such. Inspite of continuous attack on these problems for over half a century, classical solutions have remained limited in their approach and value to the understanding of the phenomena and the generation of design data. On the other hand, the finite element methods that have grown simultaneously with the recent development of computers have been helpful in analysing specific problems and answering specific questions, but are yet to be harnessed to assist in obtaining with economy a clearer understanding of the phenomena of partial separation and contact, friction and slip, and fretting and fatigue in pin joints. Against this background, it is useful to explore the application of the classical simple differential equation methods with the aid of computer power to open up this very important area. In this paper we describe some of the recent and current work at the Indian Institute of Science in this last direction.

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The Thesis presents a state-space model for a basketball league and a Kalman filter algorithm for the estimation of the state of the league. In the state-space model, each of the basketball teams is associated with a rating that represents its strength compared to the other teams. The ratings are assumed to evolve in time following a stochastic process with independent Gaussian increments. The estimation of the team ratings is based on the observed game scores that are assumed to depend linearly on the true strengths of the teams and independent Gaussian noise. The team ratings are estimated using a recursive Kalman filter algorithm that produces least squares optimal estimates for the team strengths and predictions for the scores of the future games. Additionally, if the Gaussianity assumption holds, the predictions given by the Kalman filter maximize the likelihood of the observed scores. The team ratings allow probabilistic inference about the ranking of the teams and their relative strengths as well as about the teams’ winning probabilities in future games. The predictions about the winners of the games are correct 65-70% of the time. The team ratings explain 16% of the random variation observed in the game scores. Furthermore, the winning probabilities given by the model are concurrent with the observed scores. The state-space model includes four independent parameters that involve the variances of noise terms and the home court advantage observed in the scores. The Thesis presents the estimation of these parameters using the maximum likelihood method as well as using other techniques. The Thesis also gives various example analyses related to the American professional basketball league, i.e., National Basketball Association (NBA), and regular seasons played in year 2005 through 2010. Additionally, the season 2009-2010 is discussed in full detail, including the playoffs.

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Questions of the small size of non-industrial private forest (NIPF) holdings in Finland are considered and factors affecting their partitioning are analyzed. This work arises out of Finnish forest policy statements in which the small average size of holdings has been seen to have a negative influence on the economics of forestry. A survey of the literature indicates that the size of holdings is an important factor determining the costs of logging and silvicultural operations, while its influence on the timber supply is slight. The empirical data are based on a sample of 314 holdings collected by interviewing forest owners in the years 1980-86. In 1990-91 the same holdings were resurveyed by means of a postal inquiry and partly by interviewing forest owners. The principal objective in compiling the data is to assist in quantifying ownership factors that influence partitioning among different kinds of NIPF holdings. Thus the mechanism of partitioning were described and a maximum likelihood logistic regression model was constructed using seven independent holding and ownership variables. One out of four holdings had undergone partitioning in conjunction with a change in ownership, one fifth among family owned holdings and nearly a half among jointly owned holdings. The results of the logistic regression model indicate, for instance, that the odds on partitioning is about three times greater for jointly owned holdings than for family owned ones. Also, the probabilities of partitioning were estimated and the impact of independent dichotomous variables on the probability of partitioning ranged between 0.02 and 0.10. The low value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic indicates a good fit of the model and the rate of correct classification was estimated to be 88 per cent with a cutoff point of 0.5. The average size of holdings undergoing ownership changes decreased from 29.9 ha to 28.7 ha over the approximate interval 1983-90. In addition, the transition probability matrix showed that the trends towards smaller size categories mostly involved in the small size categories, less than 20 ha. The results of the study can be used in considering the effects of the small size of holdings for forestry and if the purpose is to influence partitioning through forest or rural policy.

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The function of a protein in a cell often involves coordinated interactions with one or several regulatory partners. It is thus imperative to characterize a protein both in isolation as well as in the context of its complex with an interacting partner. High resolution structural information determined by X-ray crystallography and Nuclear Magnetic Resonance offer the best route to characterize protein complexes. These techniques, however, require highly purified and homogenous protein samples at high concentration. This requirement often presents a major hurdle for structural studies. Here we present a strategy based on co-expression and co-purification to obtain recombinant multi-protein complexes in the quantity and concentration range that can enable hitherto intractable structural projects. The feasibility of this strategy was examined using the sigma factor/anti-sigma factor protein complexes from Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The approach was successful across a wide range of sigma factors and their cognate interacting partners. It thus appears likely that the analysis of these complexes based on variations in expression constructs and procedures for the purification and characterization of these recombinant protein samples would be widely applicable for other multi-protein systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Uveal melanoma (UM) is the second most common primary intraocular cancer worldwide. It is a relatively rare cancer, but still the second most common type of primary malignant melanoma in humans. UM is a slowly growing tumor, and gives rise to distant metastasis mainly to the liver via the bloodstream. About 40% of patients with UM die of metastatic disease within 10 years of diagnosis, irrespective of the type of treatment. During the last decade, two main lines of research have aimed to achieve enhanced understanding of the metastasis process and accurate prognosis of patients with UM. One emphasizes the characteristics of tumor cells, particularly their nucleoli, and markers of proliferation, and the other the characteristics of tumor blood vessels. Of several morphometric measurements, the mean diameter of the ten largest nucleoli (MLN) has become the most widely applied. A large MLN has consistently been associated with high likelihood of dying from UM. Blood vessels are of paramount importance in metastasis of UM. Different extravascular matrix patterns can be seen in UM, like loops and networks. This presence is associated with death from metastatic melanoma. However, the density of microvessels is also of prognostic importance. This study was undertaken to help understanding some histopathological factors which might contribute to developing metastasis in UM patients. Factors which could be related to tumor progression to metastasis disease, namely nucleolar size, MLN, microvascular density (MVD), cell proliferation, and The Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 Receptor(IGF-1R), were investigated. The primary aim of this thesis was to study the relationship between prognostic factors such as tumor cell nucleolar size, proliferation, extravascular matrix patterns, and dissemination of UM, and to assess to what extent there is a relationship to metastasis. The secondary goal was to develop a multivariate model which includes MLN and cell proliferation in addition to MVD, and which would fit better with population-based, melanoma-related survival data than previous models. I studied 167 patients with UM, who developed metastasis even after a very long time following removal of the eye, metastatic disease was the main cause of death, as documented in the Finnish Cancer Registry and on death certificates. Using an independent population-based data set, it was confirmed that MLN and extravascular matrix loops and networks were unrelated, independent predictors of survival in UM. Also, it has been found that multivariate models including MVD in addition to MLN fitted significantly better with survival data than models which excluded MVD. This supports the idea that both the characteristics of the blood vessels and the cells are important, and the future direction would be to look for the gene expression profile, whether it is associated more with MVD or MLN. The former relates to the host response to the tumor and may not be as tightly associated with the gene expression profile, yet most likely involved in the process of hematogenous metastasis. Because fresh tumor material is needed for reliable genetic analysis, such analysis could not be performed Although noninvasive detection of certain extravascular matrix patterns is now technically possible,in managing patients with UM, this study and tumor genetics suggest that such noninvasive methods will not fully capture the process of clinical metastasis. Progress in resection and biopsy techniques is likely in the near future to result in fresh material for the ophthalmic pathologist to correlate angiographic data, histopathological characteristics such as MLN, and genetic data. This study supported the theory that tumors containing epithelioid cells grow faster and have poorer prognosis when studied by cell proliferation in UM based on Ki-67 immunoreactivity. Cell proliferation index fitted best with the survival data when combined with MVD, MLN, and presence of epithelioid cells. Analogous with the finding that high MVD in primary UM is associated with shorter time to metastasis than low MVD, high MVD in hepatic metastasis tends to be associated with shorter survival after diagnosis of metastasis. Because the liver is the main organ for metastasis from UM, growth factors largely produced in the liver hepatocyte growth factor, epidermal growth factor and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) together with their receptors may have a role in the homing and survival of metastatic cells. Therefore the association between immunoreactivity for IGF-1R in primary UM and metastatic death was studied. It was found that immunoreactivity for IGF-IR did not independently predict metastasis from primary UM in my series.

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Often the soil hydraulic parameters are obtained by the inversion of measured data (e.g. soil moisture, pressure head, and cumulative infiltration, etc.). However, the inverse problem in unsaturated zone is ill-posed due to various reasons, and hence the parameters become non-unique. The presence of multiple soil layers brings the additional complexities in the inverse modelling. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimate (GLUE) is a useful approach to estimate the parameters and their uncertainty when dealing with soil moisture dynamics which is a highly non-linear problem. Because the estimated parameters depend on the modelling scale, inverse modelling carried out on laboratory data and field data may provide independent estimates. The objective of this paper is to compare the parameters and their uncertainty estimated through experiments in the laboratory and in the field and to assess which of the soil hydraulic parameters are independent of the experiment. The first two layers in the field site are characterized by Loamy sand and Loamy. The mean soil moisture and pressure head at three depths are measured with an interval of half hour for a period of 1 week using the evaporation method for the laboratory experiment, whereas soil moisture at three different depths (60, 110, and 200 cm) is measured with an interval of 1 h for 2 years for the field experiment. A one-dimensional soil moisture model on the basis of the finite difference method was used. The calibration and validation are approximately for 1 year each. The model performance was found to be good with root mean square error (RMSE) varying from 2 to 4 cm(3) cm(-3). It is found from the two experiments that mean and uncertainty in the saturated soil moisture (theta(s)) and shape parameter (n) of van Genuchten equations are similar for both the soil types. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Merton's model views equity as a call option on the asset of the firm. Thus the asset is partially observed through the equity. Then using nonlinear filtering an explicit expression for likelihood ratio for underlying parameters in terms of the nonlinear filter is obtained. As the evolution of the filter itself depends on the parameters in question, this does not permit direct maximum likelihood estimation, but does pave the way for the `Expectation-Maximization' method for estimating parameters. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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We present a low-complexity algorithm based on reactive tabu search (RTS) for near maximum likelihood (ML) detection in large-MIMO systems. The conventional RTS algorithm achieves near-ML performance for 4-QAM in large-MIMO systems. But its performance for higher-order QAM is far from ML performance. Here, we propose a random-restart RTS (R3TS) algorithm which achieves significantly better bit error rate (BER) performance compared to that of the conventional RTS algorithm in higher-order QAM. The key idea is to run multiple tabu searches, each search starting with a random initial vector and choosing the best among the resulting solution vectors. A criterion to limit the number of searches is also proposed. Computer simulations show that the R3TS algorithm achieves almost the ML performance in 16 x 16 V-BLAST MIMO system with 16-QAM and 64-QAM at significantly less complexities than the sphere decoder. Also, in a 32 x 32 V-BLAST MIMO system, the R3TS performs close to ML lower bound within 1.6 dB for 16-QAM (128 bps/Hz), and within 2.4 dB for 64-QAM (192 bps/Hz) at 10(-3) BER.

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The European Union has agreed on implementing the Policy Coherence for Development (PCD) principle in all policy sectors that are likely to have a direct impact on developing countries. This is in order to take account of and support the EU development cooperation objectives and the achievement of the internationally agreed Millennium Development Goals. The common EU migration policy and the newly introduced EU Blue Card directive present an example of the implementation of the principle in practice: the directive is not only designed to respond to the occurring EU labour demand by attracting highly skilled third-country professionals, but is also intended to contribute to the development objectives of the migrant-sending developing countries, primarily through the tool of circular migration and the consequent skills transfers. My objective in this study is to assess such twofold role of the EU Blue Card and to explore the idea that migration could be harnessed for the benefit of development in conformity with the notion that the two form a positive nexus. Seeing that the EU Blue Card fails to differentiate the most vulnerable countries and sectors from those that are in a better position to take advantage of the global migration flows, the developmental consequences of the directive must be accounted for even in the most severe settings. Accordingly, my intention is to question whether circular migration, as claimed, could address the problem of brain drain in the Malawian health sector, which has witnessed an excessive outflow of its professionals to the UK during the past decade. In order to assess the applicability, likelihood and relevance of circular migration and consequent skills transfers for development in the Malawian context, a field study of a total of 23 interviews with local health professionals was carried out in autumn 2010. The selected approach not only allows me to introduce a developing country perspective to the on-going discussion at the EU level, but also enables me to assess the development dimension of the EU Blue Card and the intended PCD principle through a local lens. Thus these interviews and local viewpoints are at the very heart of this study. Based on my findings from the field, the propensity of the EU Blue Card to result in circular migration and to address the persisting South-North migratory flows as well as the relevance of skills transfers can be called to question. This is as due to the bias in its twofold role the directive overlooks the importance of the sending country circumstances, which are known to determine any developmental outcomes of migration, and assumes that circular migration alone could bring about immediate benefits. Without initial emphasis on local conditions, however, positive outcomes for vulnerable countries such as Malawi are ever more distant. Indeed it seems as if the EU internal interests in migration policy forbid the fulfilment of the PCD principle and diminish the attempt to harness migration for development to bare rhetoric.

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The purpose of this research was to investigate the role of electronic word of mouth (eWOM) in shaping consumer attitudes towards various products and services with concentration on the consumer attitude change. eWOM has long been proven to play an important role in influencing consumer attitudes and has been researched from a variety of perspectives. This study attempts to look deeper into the process of consumer attitude change by applying as the central theory of the study the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion by Petty and Cacioppo. In the processes of examining the background academic and empirical research the Internet and Web 2.0 are closely depicted in order to understand how throughout the past centuries technology allowed the rise of various mediums where consumers can not only share their opinions online about products and services but also communicate with other consumers. Manuel Castel’s Internet Galaxy, Gildin’s, Carl and Noland’s, Hennig-Thurau, Gwinner, Walsh and Gremler’s researches on eWOM are the central works that helped to shape both the theoretical and empirical parts of this study. The mixed method approach was chosen as a research method for this study. An online survey was conducted via the Surveymonkey.com platform and eight qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted. The results of the study show that central route queues as text quality and text argumentativeness are more prominent among the research subjects and the peripheral route queues: source credibility and source expertise did not show considerable significance. Also more experience and participation consumers have with user-rating websites and applications more inclined they are to elaborate on the central route cues and are more likely to search for opinions that they consider rational and credible. Also these respondents are less inclined to search for ratings that confirm their existing beliefs about products or services. Less experience/participation they have about eWOM more likely they are to search for reviews confirmatory to their own.