Peso problem anddevaluation expectations: Evidence from Latin America

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia peso-ongelmaa sekä devalvaatio-odotuksia seuraavissa Latinalaisen Amerikan maissa: Argentiina, Brasilia, Costa Rica, Uruguay ja Venezuela. Lisäksi tutkitaan, onko peso-ongelmalla mahdollista selittää korkojen epäsäännöllistä käyttäytymistä ennen todellisen devalvaation tapahtumista. Jotta näiden tutkiminen olisi mahdollista, lasketaan markkinoiden odotettu devalvaation todennäköisyys tutkittavissa maissa. Odotettu devalvaation todennäköisyys lasketaan aikavälillä tammikuusta 1996 joulukuuhun 2006 käyttäen kahta erilaista mallia. Korkoero-mallin mukaan maiden välisestä korkoerosta on mahdollista laskea markkinoiden devalvaatio-odotukset. Toiseksi, Probit-mallissa käytetään useita makrotaloudellisia tekijöitä selittävinä muuttujina laskettaessa odotettua devalvaation todennäköisyyttä. Lisäksi tutkitaan, miten yksittäisten makrotaloudellisten muuttujien kehitys vaikuttaa odotettuun devalvaation todennäköisyyteen. Empiiriset tulokset osoittavat, että tutkituissa Latinalaisen Amerikan maissa oli peso-ongelma aikavälillä tammikuusta 1996 joulukuuhun 2006. Korkoero-mallin tulosten mukaan peso-ongelma löytyi kaikista muista tutkituista maista lukuun ottamatta Argentiinaa. Vastaavasti Probit-mallin mukaan peso-ongelma löytyi kaikista tutkituista maista. Tulokset osoittavat myös, että korkojen epäsäännöllinen kehitys ennen varsinaista devalvaatiota on mahdollista selittää peso-ongelmalla. Probit-mallin tulokset osoittavat lisäksi, että makrotaloudellisten muuttujien kehityksellä ei ole mitään tiettyä kaavaa liittyen siihen, kuinka ne vaikuttavat markkinoiden devalvaatio-odotuksiin Latinalaisessa Amerikassa. Pikemmin vaikutukset näyttävät olevan maakohtaisia.

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Päivittäistavarakaupan rahahuollon tehostaminen asiakaslähtöisesti

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tutkia, miten päivittäistavarakaupan rahahuoltoa voidaan tehostaa ja samalla ottaa huomioon yritysasiakkaiden tarpeet. Tutkielman teoriaosan lähdeaineistona käytettiin lähinnä asiakkaiden tarpeita, palvelun laatua, asiakastyytyväisyyttä, asiakassuhteita, prosesseja sekä palveluiden tuottavuutta käsitteleviä tieteellisiä tutkimuksia, kirjallisuutta ja artikkeleita. Tutkimuksen lähestymistapa on kuvaileva eli deskriptiivinen ja tutkimusmenetelmä kvalitatiivinen ja kvantitatiivinen. Empiirisessä osassa tavoitetta lähestyttiin tutkimalla alustavien teemahaastattelujen avulla Nordean päivittäistavarakaupan toimialaan kuuluvien yritysasiakkaiden rahahuoltotarpeita ja yrityksille tärkeitä tyytyväisyystekijöitä. Päätutkimusmenetelmänä käytettiin kvantitatiivista kysely-tutkimusta kyseiselle kohderyhmälle. Kysymyslomake laadittiin tutkielman teorian ja esihaastattelujen pohjalta. Tutkimusaineistoa analysoitiin SPSS for Windows –tilasto-ohjelmalla. Empiirisessä tutkimuksessa havaittiin, että vastaajien kokonaistyytyväisyys Nordean rahahuoltopalveluihin oli melko hyvä. Sen sijaan palvelun laatua ei koettu hyvänä, sillä yritysten odotukset palvelujen laatu-ulottuvuuksista ja palveluun liittyvistä tekijöistä olivat korkeammat kuin heidän kokemuksensa niistä. Tämä synnytti laatukuiluja (esim. palvelujen hyvä hinta-laatu-suhde, niiden selkeä hinnoittelu ja sopimusten selkeys). Rahahuoltopalvelut vastaavat parhaiten niiden yritysten tarpeita, jotka käyttävät palveluita. Tärkeimpänä tilityksiin kohdistuvana tekijänä pidettiin rahojen hyvittämistä nopeasti tilille. Rahahuollosta vastaavan pankin valintaan vaikuttaa eniten rahahuoltopalvelujen keskittäminen muiden raha-asioiden kanssa samaan pankkiin. Pankin rahahuoltopalvelujen tehostamiseksi suunnittelemat toimenpiteet ja yritysten mielipiteet niistä eroavat toisistaan. Pankin tuleekin ottaa yritysten rahahuoltotarpeet huomioon parantaessaan sisäistä kustannustehokkuutta ja tehostaessaan rahahuoltoprosessia. Asiakkaiden tyytyväisyys täytyy säilyttää ja ohjeistaa asiakkaat toimimaan rahahuollon osalta tehokkaasti ja järkevästi.

Ethnic identity construction in Chiapas: examining the role of higher intercultural education model = La construcción de la identidad étnica en Chiapas : examinando el rol de un modelo de educación superior intercultural

This study explored ethnic identity among 410 mestizo students who were attending one of three universities, which varied in their ethnic composition and their educative model. One of these universities was private and had mostly mestizo students such as the public one did. The third educative context, also public, had an intercultural model of education and the students were mixed among mestizo and indigenous. The Multigroup Ethnic Identity Measure (MEIM) was administered to high school students in order to compare their scores on ethnic identity and its components: affi rmation, belonging or commitment and exploration. Principle components factor analysis with varimax rotation and tests of mean group differences are performed. The results showed signifi cant differences between the studied groups. Scores on ethnic identity and its components were signifi cantly higher among mestizos group from University with intercultural model of education than mestizos from public and private universities of the same region. Implications of these fi ndings for education are considered, as they are the strengths as well as the limitations of this research

Asignaturas de Electrónica en la EPSEM: planificación de la impartición en inglés

Al objeto de garantizar la calidad del aprendizaje de la Electrónica en los estudios de Grado impartidos en la EPSEM, es necesario planificar de manera adecuada las asignaturas impartidas en inglés. En este trabajo se muestran los resultados del análisis realizado a los estudiantes que cursarán estas asignaturas, en el que se ponen de manifiesto las dificultades observadas y las expectativas generadas, motivando la elaboración de material de soporte específico.

Metadata for describing learning scenarios under European Higher Education Area paradigm

In this paper we identify the requirements for creating formal descriptions of learning scenarios designed under the European HigherEducation Area paradigm, using competences and learning activities as the basic pieces of the learning process, instead of contents and learning resources, pursuing personalization. Classical arrangements of content based courses are no longer enough to describe all the richness of this new learning process, where user profiles, competences and complex hierarchical itineraries need to be properly combined. We study the intersection with the current IMS Learning Design specification and theadditional metadata required for describing such learning scenarios. This new approach involves the use of case based learning and collaborativelearning in order to acquire and develop competences, following adaptive learning paths in two structured levels.

Customer Driven Order-to-Delivery Process

This thesis was made for a large forest industry company’s business segment. The purpose of the study was to improve the performance of the order-to-delivery process of the business segment. The study proceeded in three phases. The first phase was to define customer expectations in the market. The second phase was to analyse the performance and the operations of the order-to-delivery process, and to define any challenges or problems in serving the customers. The third and final phase was improving the performance of the order-to-delivery process, within the scope defined by the first two phases. The analysis showed that the delivery reliability is an essential but a challenging issue in the case company’s markets. On delivery reliability standpoint, the most challenging factors were the detected information flow distortions within the company as well as in the whole supply chain, and the lack of horizontal control over the multi-stage process.

Contrast sensitivity to radial frequencies modulated by Jn and j n Bessel profiles

We measured human contrast sensitivity to radial frequencies modulated by cylindrical (Jo) and spherical (j o) Bessel profiles. We also measured responses to profiles of j o, j1, j2, j4, j8, and j16. Functions were measured three times by at least three of eight observers using a forced-choice method. The results conform to our expectations that sensitivity would be higher for cylindrical profiles. We also observed that contrast sensitivity is increased with the j n order for n greater than zero, having distinct orderly effects at the low and high frequency ends. For n = 0, 1, 2, and 4 sensitivity tended to occur around 0.8-1.0 cpd while for n = 8 and 16 it seemed to shift gradually to 0.8-3.0 cpd. We interpret these results as being consistent with the possibility that spatial frequency processing by the human visual system can be defined a priori in terms of polar coordinates and discuss its application to study face perception.

Evaluating the Strategic Objectives of Cameroonian Higher Education: An application of the Balanced Scorecard

Contemporary higher education operates in an environment of dwindling and parsimonious resources; the increasing need for accountability and relevance to varying stakeholders with differing expectations. These relatively new trends in higher education have been faced by business organizations which have developed different ways of operating in response. This study outlines one way by which business organizations have addressed similar circumstances to show how the Cameroon higher education (HE) could learn from business organizations to manage strategic objectives. The balanced scorecard (BSC) has been used by business organizations to address similar trends. This study evaluates the strategic objectives of Cameroonian higher education using the balanced scorecard. The system level is used to identify the general strategic objectives and one state university is used to represent the translation and implementation of the objectives at the institution level. The BSC principles used include: operational strategic objectives; organizational alignment to the strategy; making strategy everyone’s everyday job; making strategy continual and; mobilizing the leadership for change. The underlying concepts in these principles are communication, consensus, relevance, and a participatory approach. The study employs data from policy documents, relevant literature, websites and semi-structured interviews. The research approach is qualitative and the analyses are done by making meaning of phenomena in their natural contexts. The results show that there is a general knowledge of the strategic objectives but there is disagreement on the relevance of these objectives to HE and on the type of approaches used in implementing the objectives. It was also found that the relevant stakeholders are known, but not all the respondents agree on the importance of these stakeholders. All stakeholders do not have the same level of influence-the state is the most influential. Reporting is sufficiently done but there are insufficient provisions for feedback from stakeholders. The study concludes that the BSC principles can be applied to the management of strategic objectives in Cameroon HE. For Cameroonian higher education, it is recommended that the focus should be first, on developing tools for strategy before the strategy itself. Even though the need for the BSC is confirmed the context does not seem sufficiently ready to implement the BSC as a strategic management tool. The proposed BSC framework can only be used as a communication tool. The barriers to managing strategic objectives in Cameroon HE are related to the communication, consensus, clarity and relevance. However, the system has prospects for improved management and eventual adoption of the BSC as both a strategic management and communication tool. In line with other BSC applications to higher education, this study concluded that it is more feasible to apply the balanced scorecard to a single higher education institution than to a higher education system. The study makes a contribution to the BSC by showing how its principles can be used in a non-business context. The study also opens up possibilities for future research on the same topic in a different context or the same context with a wider scope (more institutions and respondents); the same study with a deeper focus on the interrelationships between the different strategic objectives (strategy maps). The study could also be extended by including the perspectives of the identified stakeholders who are not directly part of the higher education system but constitute the environment in which higher education operates.

eWOM communication in social media: A study of its antecedents in higher education context

The aim of this master’s thesis was to examine antecedents of eWOM communication in social media in the higher education context. In order to achieve this goal, eWOM communications of the students’ of international master’s programmes at Lappeenranta University of Technology were studied. The main research question was formulated as follows: What kind of effect do service-, brand-related antecedents, contextual antecedents and moderating factors have on LUT’s international master’s degree students’ eWOM communication in social media regarding their studies? The theory part of the master’s thesis was focused on the discussion of service- and brand related eWOM antecedents, contextual antecedents, as well as moderating relationships between them. The empirical part of the master’s thesis was based on quantitative research method. A web-based survey was carried out among current students of international master’s degree programmes at LUT. Out of 712 e-mail invitations sent, 159 responses were received in total. Thus, response rate was 22%. The results of the study showed that satisfaction, commitment, virtual brand community commitment, need for an advice, positive altruistic concerns, negative altruistic concerns, and attitude towards eWOM communications have an effect on eWOM in higher education context. Several moderating effects on eWOM were determined in the present study as well. On the other hand, it was found that dissatisfaction, loyalty, brand identification, desire to help the organization, need for positive self-enhancement, and social risk perception do not have an effect on eWOM in higher education context.

Instructor support for self-directed learning in higher education

This study addressed the problem of instructor support for self-directed learning, specifically, learner-directed program planning, within a classroom setting in higher education. A combination of survey, interview, document analysis, and observation was used to assess and evaluate the attitudes and practices of a sample of full-time faculty at an Ontario university. Eighty-seven percent of the study sample reported instructional beliefs, values, and expectations that were not supportive of self-directed learning, especially in terms of student participation in program planning. Planning was seen as the responsibility of the instructor. Instructors were least open to student participation in the planning of the evaluation of learning. However, there was considerable stated support for other of the basic principles of adult education. The remaining 13% of the study sample reported instructional beliefs, values, and expectations that were fully supportive of self-directed learning. Instructional practices were analyzed in relation to the instructors' stated beliefs. Although practices reflected, in many instances, instructors' statements of support, there were some significant discrepancies between apparent support for the concept of self-directed learning and actual classroom practice. Both beliefs and practice were compared to a research model of self-directed learning. Most instructors did not have a concept of self-directed learning as comprehensive as that described in the research model. Instructor support for self-directed learning was profoundly influenced by the university setting. It was concluded that more strenuous attempts to research, enhance, and promote instructional and institutional support for self-directed learning in higher education are warranted.

Mobile Books: Effect of Engagement on Students’ Motivation and Cognitive Strategy Use

This mixed methods research explores the role of reading engagement in 30 grade 1 students’ motivation to read mobile electronic storybooks (eBooks) and cognitive strategies used during eBook reading. Data collection comprised motivation and parent questionnaires, behavioural observation checklists, cognitive strategies rubric, and teacher interviews. Students’ emotional engagement with and enjoyment of mobile eBooks corresponded to 4 motivational aspects of intrinsic motivation: curiosity, control, choice, and challenge. Post-intervention results indicated that most student participants enjoyed answering eBook comprehension questions and preferred eBooks to print books; by the end of the study, all had access to a mobile device at home. A majority of participants were actively engaged during mobile eBook reading sessions and persisted in answering embedded eBook comprehension questions, which together reflected students’ behavioural engagement and time-on-task during mobile reading. Students’ off-task behaviours related to iPads’ accessibility features and inherent reader-friendliness. All participants successfully answered evaluative questions requiring them to activate prior knowledge, and experienced higher levels of difficulty with making personal connections. The study highlights the importance of making school-based literacy practices relevant to students’ outside worlds, and discusses implications for teacher educators, administrators, curriculum developers, and eBook and other digital developers concerning the need for greater collaboration in order to more closely align technology resources with national curriculum expectations.

Essays in macro finance and monetary economics

Les questions abordées dans les deux premiers articles de ma thèse cherchent à comprendre les facteurs économiques qui affectent la structure à terme des taux d'intérêt et la prime de risque. Je construis des modèles non linéaires d'équilibre général en y intégrant des obligations de différentes échéances. Spécifiquement, le premier article a pour objectif de comprendre la relation entre les facteurs macroéconomiques et le niveau de prime de risque dans un cadre Néo-keynésien d'équilibre général avec incertitude. L'incertitude dans le modèle provient de trois sources : les chocs de productivité, les chocs monétaires et les chocs de préférences. Le modèle comporte deux types de rigidités réelles à savoir la formation des habitudes dans les préférences et les coûts d'ajustement du stock de capital. Le modèle est résolu par la méthode des perturbations à l'ordre deux et calibré à l'économie américaine. Puisque la prime de risque est par nature une compensation pour le risque, l'approximation d'ordre deux implique que la prime de risque est une combinaison linéaire des volatilités des trois chocs. Les résultats montrent qu'avec les paramètres calibrés, les chocs réels (productivité et préférences) jouent un rôle plus important dans la détermination du niveau de la prime de risque relativement aux chocs monétaires. Je montre que contrairement aux travaux précédents (dans lesquels le capital de production est fixe), l'effet du paramètre de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque dépend du degré des coûts d'ajustement du capital. Lorsque les coûts d'ajustement du capital sont élevés au point que le stock de capital est fixe à l'équilibre, une augmentation du paramètre de formation des habitudes entraine une augmentation de la prime de risque. Par contre, lorsque les agents peuvent librement ajuster le stock de capital sans coûts, l'effet du paramètre de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque est négligeable. Ce résultat s'explique par le fait que lorsque le stock de capital peut être ajusté sans coûts, cela ouvre un canal additionnel de lissage de consommation pour les agents. Par conséquent, l'effet de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque est amoindri. En outre, les résultats montrent que la façon dont la banque centrale conduit sa politique monétaire a un effet sur la prime de risque. Plus la banque centrale est agressive vis-à-vis de l'inflation, plus la prime de risque diminue et vice versa. Cela est due au fait que lorsque la banque centrale combat l'inflation cela entraine une baisse de la variance de l'inflation. Par suite, la prime de risque due au risque d'inflation diminue. Dans le deuxième article, je fais une extension du premier article en utilisant des préférences récursives de type Epstein -- Zin et en permettant aux volatilités conditionnelles des chocs de varier avec le temps. L'emploi de ce cadre est motivé par deux raisons. D'abord des études récentes (Doh, 2010, Rudebusch and Swanson, 2012) ont montré que ces préférences sont appropriées pour l'analyse du prix des actifs dans les modèles d'équilibre général. Ensuite, l'hétéroscedasticité est une caractéristique courante des données économiques et financières. Cela implique que contrairement au premier article, l'incertitude varie dans le temps. Le cadre dans cet article est donc plus général et plus réaliste que celui du premier article. L'objectif principal de cet article est d'examiner l'impact des chocs de volatilités conditionnelles sur le niveau et la dynamique des taux d'intérêt et de la prime de risque. Puisque la prime de risque est constante a l'approximation d'ordre deux, le modèle est résolu par la méthode des perturbations avec une approximation d'ordre trois. Ainsi on obtient une prime de risque qui varie dans le temps. L'avantage d'introduire des chocs de volatilités conditionnelles est que cela induit des variables d'état supplémentaires qui apportent une contribution additionnelle à la dynamique de la prime de risque. Je montre que l'approximation d'ordre trois implique que les primes de risque ont une représentation de type ARCH-M (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty in Mean) comme celui introduit par Engle, Lilien et Robins (1987). La différence est que dans ce modèle les paramètres sont structurels et les volatilités sont des volatilités conditionnelles de chocs économiques et non celles des variables elles-mêmes. J'estime les paramètres du modèle par la méthode des moments simulés (SMM) en utilisant des données de l'économie américaine. Les résultats de l'estimation montrent qu'il y a une évidence de volatilité stochastique dans les trois chocs. De plus, la contribution des volatilités conditionnelles des chocs au niveau et à la dynamique de la prime de risque est significative. En particulier, les effets des volatilités conditionnelles des chocs de productivité et de préférences sont significatifs. La volatilité conditionnelle du choc de productivité contribue positivement aux moyennes et aux écart-types des primes de risque. Ces contributions varient avec la maturité des bonds. La volatilité conditionnelle du choc de préférences quant à elle contribue négativement aux moyennes et positivement aux variances des primes de risque. Quant au choc de volatilité de la politique monétaire, son impact sur les primes de risque est négligeable. Le troisième article (coécrit avec Eric Schaling, Alain Kabundi, révisé et resoumis au journal of Economic Modelling) traite de l'hétérogénéité dans la formation des attentes d'inflation de divers groupes économiques et de leur impact sur la politique monétaire en Afrique du sud. La question principale est d'examiner si différents groupes d'agents économiques forment leurs attentes d'inflation de la même façon et s'ils perçoivent de la même façon la politique monétaire de la banque centrale (South African Reserve Bank). Ainsi on spécifie un modèle de prédiction d'inflation qui nous permet de tester l'arrimage des attentes d'inflation à la bande d'inflation cible (3% - 6%) de la banque centrale. Les données utilisées sont des données d'enquête réalisée par la banque centrale auprès de trois groupes d'agents : les analystes financiers, les firmes et les syndicats. On exploite donc la structure de panel des données pour tester l'hétérogénéité dans les attentes d'inflation et déduire leur perception de la politique monétaire. Les résultats montrent qu'il y a évidence d'hétérogénéité dans la manière dont les différents groupes forment leurs attentes. Les attentes des analystes financiers sont arrimées à la bande d'inflation cible alors que celles des firmes et des syndicats ne sont pas arrimées. En effet, les firmes et les syndicats accordent un poids significatif à l'inflation retardée d'une période et leurs prédictions varient avec l'inflation réalisée (retardée). Ce qui dénote un manque de crédibilité parfaite de la banque centrale au vu de ces agents.

Spectral dependence of third order nonlinear optical susceptibility of zinc phthalocyanine

Wavelength dependence of saturable absorption (SA) and reverse saturable absorption (RSA) of zinc phthalocyanine was studied using 10 Hz, 8 ns pulses from a tunable laser, in the wavelength range of 520–686 nm, which includes the rising edge of the Q band in the electronic absorption spectrum. The nonlinear response is wavelength dependent and switching from RSA to SA has been observed as the excitation wavelength changes from the low absorption window region to higher absorption regime near the Q band. The SA again changes back to RSA when we further move over to the infrared region. Values of the imaginary part of third order susceptibility are calculated for various wavelengths in this range. This study is important in identifying the spectral range over which the nonlinear material acts as RSA based optical limiter.

Spectral dependence of third order nonlinear optical susceptibility of zinc phthalocyanine

Wavelength dependence of saturable absorption (SA) and reverse saturable absorption (RSA) of zinc phthalocyanine was studied using 10 Hz, 8 ns pulses from a tunable laser, in the wavelength range of 520–686 nm, which includes the rising edge of the Q band in the electronic absorption spectrum. The nonlinear response is wavelength dependent and switching from RSA to SA has been observed as the excitation wavelength changes from the low absorption window region to higher absorption regime near the Q band. The SA again changes back to RSA when we further move over to the infrared region. Values of the imaginary part of third order susceptibility are calculated for various wavelengths in this range. This study is important in identifying the spectral range over which the nonlinear material acts as RSA based optical limiter.