Excess power circulation in distribution networks containing distributed energy resources

The presence of large number of single-phase distributed energy resources (DERs) can cause severe power quality problems in distribution networks. The DERs can be installed in random locations. This may cause the generation in a particular phase exceeds the load demand in that phase. Therefore the excess power in that phase will be fed back to the transmission network. To avoid this problem, the paper proposes the use of distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) that needs to be connected at the first bus following a substation. When operated properly, the DSTATCOM can facilitate a set of balanced current flow from the substation, even when excess power is generated by DERs. The proposals are validated through extensive digital computer simulation studies using PSCAD and MATLAB.

Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Reasoning about component similarity in building product models from the construction perspective

Identifying the design features that impact construction is essential to developing cost effective and constructible designs. The similarity of building components is a critical design feature that affects method selection, productivity, and ultimately construction cost and schedule performance. However, there is limited understanding of what constitutes similarity in the design of building components and limited computer-based support to identify this feature in a building product model. This paper contributes a feature-based framework for representing and reasoning about component similarity that builds on ontological modelling, model-based reasoning and cluster analysis techniques. It describes the ontology we developed to characterize component similarity in terms of the component attributes, the direction, and the degree of variation. It also describes the generic reasoning process we formalized to identify component similarity in a standard product model based on practitioners' varied preferences. The generic reasoning process evaluates the geometric, topological, and symbolic similarities between components, creates groupings of similar components, and quantifies the degree of similarity. We implemented this reasoning process in a prototype cost estimating application, which creates and maintains cost estimates based on a building product model. Validation studies of the prototype system provide evidence that the framework is general and enables a more accurate and efficient cost estimating process.

Bringing skills and general competences back into technological education

In this paper we show that industry-based student training is not limited to work experience; work integrated learning, internship or extended vacation work. It is also about bringing back the lost parts of technological education. We experience the unilateral focus on theoretical knowledge at the expense of skills and general competences as one important challenge in technological education. The lacking facilitation and training of practical skills and general competences in the curricula and programs are identified, but many institutions have failed to address the problem. Today’s curricula in many ways reduce technology to abstract concepts, calculations and models, and create a gap between the academic programs and the practical applications in the society. We explore two (Australia and Norway) initiatives on industry-based student training and discuss how these initiatives address and bridge the gap. We argue that these initiatives of industry-based student training contribute to bringing skills and general competences back into technological education, and that the effects are not limited to increased employability, but also include increased academic performance.

Genome-wide association study reveals three susceptibility loci for common migraine in the general population

Migraine is a common, heterogeneous and heritable neurological disorder. Its pathophysiology is incompletely understood, and its genetic influences at the population level are unknown. In a population-based genome-wide analysis including 5,122 migraineurs and 18,108 non-migraineurs, rs2651899 (1p36.32, PRDM16), rs10166942 (2q37.1, TRPM8) and rs11172113 (12q13.3, LRP1) were among the top seven associations (P < 5 × 10(-6)) with migraine. These SNPs were significant in a meta-analysis among three replication cohorts and met genome-wide significance in a meta-analysis combining the discovery and replication cohorts (rs2651899, odds ratio (OR) = 1.11, P = 3.8 × 10(-9); rs10166942, OR = 0.85, P = 5.5 × 10(-12); and rs11172113, OR = 0.90, P = 4.3 × 10(-9)). The associations at rs2651899 and rs10166942 were specific for migraine compared with non-migraine headache. None of the three SNP associations was preferential for migraine with aura or without aura, nor were any associations specific for migraine features. TRPM8 has been the focus of neuropathic pain models, whereas LRP1 modulates neuronal glutamate signaling, plausibly linking both genes to migraine pathophysiology.

Pattern-based topic models for information filtering

Topic modelling, such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), was proposed to generate statistical models to represent multiple topics in a collection of documents, which has been widely utilized in the fields of machine learning and information retrieval, etc. But its effectiveness in information filtering is rarely known. Patterns are always thought to be more representative than single terms for representing documents. In this paper, a novel information filtering model, Pattern-based Topic Model(PBTM) , is proposed to represent the text documents not only using the topic distributions at general level but also using semantic pattern representations at detailed specific level, both of which contribute to the accurate document representation and document relevance ranking. Extensive experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of PBTM by using the TREC data collection Reuters Corpus Volume 1. The results show that the proposed model achieves outstanding performance.

Towards training-free appearance-based localization : probabilistic models for whole-image descriptors

Whole image descriptors have recently been shown to be remarkably robust to perceptual change especially compared to local features. However, whole-image-based localization systems typically rely on heuristic methods for determining appropriate matching thresholds in a particular environment. These environment-specific tuning requirements and the lack of a meaningful interpretation of these arbitrary thresholds limits the general applicability of these systems. In this paper we present a Bayesian model of probability for whole-image descriptors that can be seamlessly integrated into localization systems designed for probabilistic visual input. We demonstrate this method using CAT-Graph, an appearance-based visual localization system originally designed for a FAB-MAP-style probabilistic input. We show that using whole-image descriptors as visual input extends CAT-Graph’s functionality to environments that experience a greater amount of perceptual change. We also present a method of estimating whole-image probability models in an online manner, removing the need for a prior training phase. We show that this online, automated training method can perform comparably to pre-trained, manually tuned local descriptor methods.

Fast re-parameterisation of Gaussian mixture models for robotics applications

Autonomous navigation and picture compilation tasks require robust feature descriptions or models. Given the non Gaussian nature of sensor observations, it will be shown that Gaussian mixture models provide a general probabilistic representation allowing analytical solutions to the update and prediction operations in the general Bayesian filtering problem. Each operation in the Bayesian filter for Gaussian mixture models multiplicatively increases the number of parameters in the representation leading to the need for a re-parameterisation step. A computationally efficient re-parameterisation step will be demonstrated resulting in a compact and accurate estimate of the true distribution.

What are pregnant women told about models of maternity care in Australia? A retrospective study of women's reports

Objective To describe women’s reports of the model of care options General Practitioners (GPs) discussed with them at the first pregnancy consultation and women’s self-reported role in decisionmaking about model of care. Methods Women who had recently given birth responded to survey items about the models of care GPs discussed, their role in final decision-making, and socio-demographic, obstetric history, and early pregnancy characteristics. Results The proportion of women with whom each model of care was discussed varied between 8.2% (for private midwifery care with home birth) and 64.4% (GP shared care). Only 7.7% of women reported that all seven models were discussed. Exclusive discussion about private obstetric care and about all public models was common, and women’s health insurance status was the strongest predictor of the presence of discussions about each model. Most women (82.6%) reported active involvement in final decision-making about model of care. Conclusion Although most women report involvement in maternity model of care decisions, they remain largely uninformed about the breadth of available model of care options. Practical implications Strategies that facilitate women’s access to information on the differentiating features and outcomes for all models of care should be prioritized to better ensure equitable and quality decisions.

The Australian general public's perceptions of having a personally controlled electronic health record (PCEHR)

Objective The move internationally by Governments and other health providers to encourage patients to have their own electronic personal health record (e-PHRs) is growing exponentially. In Australia the initiative for a personally controlled electronic health record (known as PCEHR) is directed towards the public at large. The first objective of this study then, is to examine how individuals in the general population perceive the promoted idea of having a PCEHR. The second objective is to extend research on applying a theoretically derived consumer technology acceptance model to guide the research. Method An online survey was conducted to capture the perceptions and beliefs about having a PCEHR identified from technology acceptance models and extant literature. The survey was completed by 750 Queensland respondents, 97% of whom did not have a PCEHR at that time. The model was examined using exploratory factor analysis, regressions and mediation tests. Results Findings support eight of the 11 hypothesised relationships in the model. Perceived value and perceived risk were the two most important variables explaining attitude, with perceived usefulness and compatibility being weak but significant. The perception of risk was reduced through partial mediation from trust and privacy concerns. Additionally, web-self efficacy and ease of use partially mediate the relationship between attitude and intentions. Conclusions The findings represent a snapshot of the early stages of implementing this Australian initiative and captures the perceptions of Queenslanders who at present do not have a PCEHR. Findings show that while individuals appreciate the value of having this record, they do not appear to regard it as particularly useful at present, nor is it particularly compatible with their current engagement with e-services. Moreover, they will need to have any concerns about the risks alleviated, particularly through an increased sense of trust and reduction of privacy concerns. It is noted that although the respondents are non-adopters, they do not feel that they lack the necessary web skills to set up and use a PCEHR. To the best of our knowledge this is one of a very limited number of studies that examines a national level implementation of an e-PHR system, where take-up of the PCEHR is optional rather than a centralised, mandated requirement.

A contextualised general systems theory

A system is something that can be separated from its surrounds, but this definition leaves much scope for refinement. Starting with the notion of measurement, we explore increasingly contextual system behaviour, and identify three major forms of contextuality that might be exhibited by a system: (a) between components; (b) between system and experimental method, and; (c) between a system and its environment. Quantum Theory is shown to provide a highly useful formalism from which all three forms of contextuality can be analysed, offering numerous tests for contextual behaviour, as well as modelling possibilities for systems that do indeed display it. I conclude with the introduction of a Contextualised General Systems Theory based upon an extension of this formalism.

kmth price sealed-bid auctions with general independent values and equilibrium linear mark-ups

A generalised bidding model is developed to calculate a bidder’s expected profit and auctioners expected revenue/payment for both a General Independent Value and Independent Private Value (IPV) kmth price sealed-bid auction (where the mth bidder wins at the kth bid payment) using a linear (affine) mark-up function. The Common Value (CV) assumption, and highbid and lowbid symmetric and asymmetric First Price Auctions and Second Price Auctions are included as special cases. The optimal n bidder symmetric analytical results are then provided for the uniform IPV and CV models in equilibrium. Final comments concern implications, the assumptions involved and prospects for further research.

Capacity determination and expansion models for rail networks

This thesis focused upon the development of improved capacity analysis and capacity planning techniques for railways. A number of innovations were made and were tested on a case study of a real national railway. These techniques can reduce the time required to perform decision making activities that planners and managers need to perform. As all railways need to be expanded to meet increasing demands, the presumption that analytical capacity models can be used to identify how best to improve an existing network at least cost, was fully investigated. Track duplication was the mechanism used to expanding a network's capacity, and two variant capacity expansion models were formulated. Another outcome of this thesis is the development and validation of bi objective models for capacity analysis. These models regulate the competition for track access and perform a trade-off analysis. An opportunity to develop more general mulch-objective approaches was identified.

Some major problems with existing models and terminology associated with kimberlite pipes from a volcanological perspective, and some suggestions

Five significant problems hinder advances in understanding of the volcanology of kimberlites: (1) kimberlite geology is very model driven; (2) a highly genetic terminology drives deposit or facies interpretation; (3) the effects of alteration on preserved depositional textures have been grossly underestimated; (4) the level of understanding of the physical process significance of preserved textures is limited; and, (5) some inferred processes and deposits are not based on actual, modern volcanological processes. These issues need to be addressed in order to advance understanding of kimberlite volcanological pipe forming processes and deposits. The traditional, steep-sided southern African pipe model (Class I) consists of a steep tapering pipe with a deep root zone, a middle diatreme zone and an upper crater zone (if preserved). Each zone is thought to be dominated by distinctive facies, respectively: hypabyssal kimberlite (HK, descriptively called here massive coherent porphyritic kimberlite), tuffisitic kimberlite breccia (TKB, descriptively here called massive, poorly sorted lapilli tuff) and crater zone facies, which include variably bedded pyroclastic kimberlite and resedimented and reworked volcaniclastic kimberlite (RVK). Porphyritic coherent kimberlite may, however, also be emplaced at different levels in the pipe, as later stage intrusions, as well as dykes in the surrounding country rock. The relationship between HK and TKB is not always clear. Sub-terranean fluidisation as an emplacement process is a largely unsubstantiated hypothesis; modern in-vent volcanological processes should initially be considered to explain observed deposits. Crater zone volcaniclastic deposits can occur within the diatreme zone of some pipes, indicating that the pipe was largely empty at the end of the eruption, and subsequently began to fill-in largely through resedimentation and sourcing of pyroclastic deposits from nearby vents. Classes II and III Canadian kimberlite models have a more factual, descriptive basis, but are still inadequately documented given the recency of their discovery. The diversity amongst kimberlite bodies suggests that a three-model classification is an over-simplification. Every kimberlite is altered to varying degrees, which is an intrinsic consequence of the ultrabasic composition of kimberlite and the in-vent context; few preserve original textures. The effects of syn- to post-emplacement alteration on original textures have not been adequately considered to date, and should be back-stripped to identify original textural elements and configurations. Applying sedimentological textural configurations as a guide to emplacement processes would be useful. The traditional terminology has many connotations about spatial position in pipe and of process. Perhaps the traditional terminology can be retained in the industrial situation as a general lithofacies-mining terminological scheme because it is so entrenched. However, for research purposes a more descriptive lithofacies terminology should be adopted to facilitate detailed understanding of deposit characteristics, important variations in these, and the process origins. For example every deposit of TKB is different in componentry, texture, or depositional structure. However, because so many deposits in many different pipes are called TKB, there is an implication that they are all similar and that similar processes were involved, which is far from clear.

Confirmatory factory analysis of the Neck Disability Index in a general problematic neck population indicates a one-factor model

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: The Neck Disability Index frequently is used to measure outcomes of the neck. The statistical rigor of the Neck Disability Index has been assessed with conflicting outcomes. To date, Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Neck Disability Index has not been reported for a suitably large population study. Because the Neck Disability Index is not a condition-specific measure of neck function, initial Confirmatory Factor Analysis should consider problematic neck patients as a homogenous group. PURPOSE: We sought to analyze the factor structure of the Neck Disability Index through Confirmatory Factor Analysis in a symptomatic, homogeneous, neck population, with respect to pooled populations and gender subgroups. STUDY DESIGN: This was a secondary analysis of pooled data. PATIENT SAMPLE: A total of 1,278 symptomatic neck patients (67.5% female, median age 41 years), 803 nonspecific and 475 with whiplash-associated disorder. OUTCOME MEASURES: The Neck Disability Index was used to measure outcomes. METHODS: We analyzed pooled baseline data from six independent studies of patients with neck problems who completed Neck Disability Index questionnaires at baseline. The Confirmatory Factor Analysis was considered in three scenarios: the full sample and separate sexes. Models were compared empirically for best fit. RESULTS: Two-factor models have good psychometric properties across both the pooled and sex subgroups. However, according to these analyses, the one-factor solution is preferable from both a statistical perspective and parsimony. The two-factor model was close to significant for the male subgroup (p<.07) where questions separated into constructs of mental function (pain, reading headaches and concentration) and physical function (personal care, lifting, work, driving, sleep, and recreation). CONCLUSIONS: The Neck Disability Index demonstrated a one-factor structure when analyzed by Confirmatory Factor Analysis in a pooled, homogenous sample of neck problem patients. However, a two-factor model did approach significance for male subjects where questions separated into constructs of mental and physical function. Further investigations in different conditions, subgroup and sex-specific populations are warranted.