Adverse selection, credit and efficiency: The case of the missing market

We analyze a standard environment of adverse selection in credit markets. In our environment,entrepreneurs who are privately informed about the quality of their projects needto borrow in order to invest. Conventional wisdom says that, in this class of economies, thecompetitive equilibrium is typically inefficient.We show that this conventional wisdom rests on one implicit assumption: entrepreneurscan only access monitored lending. If a new set of markets is added to provide entrepreneurswith additional funds, efficiency can be attained in equilibrium. An important characteristic ofthese additional markets is that lending in them must be unmonitored, in the sense that it doesnot condition total borrowing or investment by entrepreneurs. This makes it possible to attainefficiency by pooling all entrepreneurs in the new markets while separating them in the marketsfor monitored loans.

Implementation, elimination of weakly dominated strategies and evolutionary dynamics

This paper is concerned with the realism of mechanisms that implementsocial choice functions in the traditional sense. Will agents actually playthe equilibrium assumed by the analysis? As an example, we study theconvergence and stability properties of Sj\"ostr\"om's (1994) mechanism, onthe assumption that boundedly rational players find their way to equilibriumusing monotonic learning dynamics and also with fictitious play. Thismechanism implements most social choice functions in economic environmentsusing as a solution concept the iterated elimination of weakly dominatedstrategies (only one round of deletion of weakly dominated strategies isneeded). There are, however, many sets of Nash equilibria whose payoffs maybe very different from those desired by the social choice function. Withmonotonic dynamics we show that many equilibria in all the sets ofequilibria we describe are the limit points of trajectories that havecompletely mixed initial conditions. The initial conditions that lead tothese equilibria need not be very close to the limiting point. Furthermore,even if the dynamics converge to the ``right'' set of equilibria, it stillcan converge to quite a poor outcome in welfare terms. With fictitious play,if the agents have completely mixed prior beliefs, beliefs and play convergeto the outcome the planner wants to implement.

On the performance of small-area estimators: Fixed vs. random area parameters

Most methods for small-area estimation are based on composite estimators derived from design- or model-based methods. A composite estimator is a linear combination of a direct and an indirect estimator with weights that usually depend on unknown parameters which need to be estimated. Although model-based small-area estimators are usually based on random-effects models, the assumption of fixed effects is at face value more appropriate.Model-based estimators are justified by the assumption of random (interchangeable) area effects; in practice, however, areas are not interchangeable. In the present paper we empirically assess the quality of several small-area estimators in the setting in which the area effects are treated as fixed. We consider two settings: one that draws samples from a theoretical population, and another that draws samples from an empirical population of a labor force register maintained by the National Institute of Social Security (NISS) of Catalonia. We distinguish two types of composite estimators: a) those that use weights that involve area specific estimates of bias and variance; and, b) those that use weights that involve a common variance and a common squared bias estimate for all the areas. We assess their precision and discuss alternatives to optimizing composite estimation in applications.

The impact of tax credits on labour supply

One of the principle aims of the Working Families' Tax Credit in the UK was to increase the participation of single mothers. The literature to date concludes there was approximately a five-percentage-point increase in employment of single mothers. The differences-in-differences methodology that is typically used compares single mother with single women without children. However, the characteristics of these groups are very different, and change over time in relative covariates are likely to violate the identifying assumption. We find that when we control for differential trends between women with and without children, the employment effect of the policy falls significantly. Moreover, the effect is borne solely by those working full-time (30 hours or more), while having no effect on inducing people into the labor market from inactivity. Looking closely at important covariates over time, we can see sizeable changes in the relative returns to employment between the treatment and control groups.

Aggregate consequences of limited contract enforceability

We study a general equilibrium model in which entrepreneurs finance investment with optimal financial contracts. Because of enforceability problems, contracts are constrained efficient. We show that limited enforceability amplifies the impact of technological innovations on aggregate output. More generally, we show that lower enforceability of contracts will be associated with greater aggregate volatility. A key assumption for this result is that defaulting entrepreneurs are not excluded from the market.

Exact tests for correlation and for the slope in simple linear regressions without making assumptions

We present an exact test for whether two random variables that have known bounds on their support are negatively correlated. The alternative hypothesis is that they are not negatively correlated. No assumptions are made on the underlying distributions. We show by example that the Spearman rank correlation test as the competing exact test of correlation in nonparametric settings rests on an additional assumption on the data generating process without which it is not valid as a test for correlation.We then show how to test for the significance of the slope in a linear regression analysis that invovles a single independent variable and where outcomes of the dependent variable belong to a known bounded set.

Optimal contracts, adverse selection and social preferences: An experiment

It has long been standard in agency theory to search for incentive-compatible mechanisms on the assumption that people care only about their own material wealth. However, this assumption is clearly refuted by numerous experiments, and we feel that it may be useful to consider nonpecuniary utility in mechanism design and contract theory. Accordingly, we devise an experiment to explore optimal contracts in an adverse-selection context. A principal proposes one of three contract menus, each of which offers a choice of two incentive-compatible contracts, to two agents whose types are unknown to the principal. The agents know the set of possible menus, and choose to either accept one of the two contracts offered in the proposed menu or to reject the menu altogether; a rejection by either agent leads to lower (and equal) reservation payoffs for all parties. While all three possible menus favor the principal, they do so to varying degrees. We observe numerous rejections of the more lopsided menus, and approach an equilibrium where one of the more equitable contract menus (which one depends on the reservation payoffs) is proposed and agents accept a contract, selecting actions according to their types. Behavior is largely consistent with all recent models of social preferences, strongly suggesting there is value in considering nonpecuniary utility in agency theory.

Do Jardim-de-Infância ao Centro de Actividades de Tempos Livres: Representações das Crianças sobre o Brincar

A investigação “Do Jardim-de-infância ao Centro de Actividades de Tempos Livres: Representações das Crianças sobre o Brincar” reconhece as crianças como actores sociais, sujeitos de direitos, entre eles, o direito à participação em assuntos que lhes digam directamente respeito, a assuntos de seu interesse, nomeadamente o direito ao brincar. O brincar é uma actividade lúdica, assim como o jogar, importante no processo de crescimento e desenvolvimento da criança e, nos tempos que correm, a sociedade, de uma forma geral, e particularmente as famílias, preocupam-se muito com o trabalho e colocam as necessidades básicas das crianças em segundo plano ao valorizarem acima de tudo o sucesso e o desempenho das mesmas. Assim, se participar significa “tomar parte em”, reconhece-se a necessidade de ouvir as crianças e o que elas têm a dizer sobre essa actividade lúdica, sobre a forma como organizam o seu dia e o tempo que despendem para brincar e sobre a forma como gostariam de ver os seus dias ocupados. É neste pressuposto, de que é através da acção e da voz das crianças, que é possível a construção de um conhecimento teórico e válido que contribua para uma melhor intervenção educativa com as crianças. Esta investigação, que decorreu numa instituição com várias vertentes, entre elas a vertente da Animação Infantil, enquadra-se no paradigma qualitativo de natureza participativa, e procura interpretar os significados atribuídos pelas crianças, que frequentam o Jardim-deinfância da rede pública e a mesma instituição, na condição de Componente de Apoio à Família, ao brincar, às suas vivências no que concerne à gestão do seu quotidiano, quer no que refere ao tempo que passam no Jardim-de-infância, quer no que passam no Prolongamento de Horário/Actividades de Tempos Livres. Neste trabalho de investigação que decorreu numa instituição situada numa freguesia pertencente ao Distrito de Viana do Castelo e que disponibiliza os serviços de ATL, participaram como protagonistas as crianças da faixa etária entre os três e os seis anos de idade e que frequentam dois contextos: educacional e lúdico. Este trabalho é sustentado por um referencial teórico que engloba o brincar na sociedade actual e a sua importância, a educação pré-escolar e as suas funções, a natureza da componente de apoio à família, a animação sócio-educativa e os contextos de vida das crianças, que permitiram questionar a participação infantil em assuntos de seu interesse. Ainda que este estudo não permita generalizações, reflecte-se sobre a realidade existente, dá voz às crianças e indica aspectos que, de uma forma geral, precisam de mais atenção. Afinal o brincar na infância é um assunto sério…

Wild bids. Gambling for resurrection in procurement contracts

This paper analyzes the problem of abnormally low tenders in theprocurement process. Limited liability causes firms in a bad financialsituation to bid more aggressively than good firms in the procurementauction. Therefore, it is more likely that the winning firm is a firm infinancial difficulties with a high risk of bankruptcy. The paper analyzesthe different regulatory practices to face this problem with a specialemphasis on surety bonds used e.g. in the US. We characterize the optimalsurety bond and show that it does not coincide with the current USregulation. In particular we show that under a natural assumption the USregulation is too expensive and provides overinsurance to the problem ofabnormally low tenders.

Health investment complementarities under competing risks

Applying the competing--risks model to multi--cause mortality,this paper provides a theoretical and empirical investigation of the positive complementarities that occur between disease--specific policy interventions. We argue that since an individual cannot die twice, competing risks imply that individuals will not waste resources on causes that are not the most immediate, but will make health investments so as to equalize cause--specific mortality. However, equal mortality risk from a variety of diseases does not imply that disease--specific public health interventions are a waste. Rather, a cause--specific intervention produces spillovers to other disease risks, so that the overall reduction in mortality will generally be larger than the direct effect measured on the targeted disease. The assumption that mortality from non--targeted diseases remains the same after a cause--specific intervention under--estimates the true effect of such programs, since the background mortality is also altered as a result of intervention. Analyzing data from one of the most important public health programs ever introduced, the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) of the United Nations, we find evidence for the existence of such complementarities, involving causes that are not biomedically, but behaviorally, linked.

As Barragens em cabo Verde - Avaliação dos Impactes Ambientais - Socioeconómicos e Culturais - Caso de Estudo - A Barragem do Poilão Ilha Santiago

Os sucessivos anos de seca têm agravado a crónica falta de água que marca o quadro hídrico de Cabo Verde. No arquipélago verifica-se a perda de um grande volume de água que se escoa para o mar, aquando das grandes chuvadas, e que é estimado em milhões de m3/ano. Para atenuar a problemática da falta de água, principalmente no setor agrícola, o Governo Cabo-verdiano tem apostado na política de construção de barragens. No ano de 2006 com o objetivo de aumentar os recursos hídricos disponíveis e concomitantemente alargar a área irrigada e diminuir a pobreza, foi inaugurada a barragem do Poilão, a primeira do arquipélago, no interior da ilha de Santiago no concelho de São Lourenço dos Órgãos. Baseado no pressuposto que as barragens são estruturas de grande impacte ambiental e socioeconómico, antes, durante e depois da sua construção, o presente trabalho tem como objetivo principal avaliar o desempenho ambiental, socioeconómico e cultural da Barragem de Poilão. Para tal, o trabalho segue uma metodologia DPSIR1e a aplicação de inquéritos e entrevistas, procurando integrar o conhecimento e a perceção da paisagem na área de influência da albufeira por parte de diversos atores locais. Espera-se colher subsídios que sirvam de base para os estudos futuros das demais barragens projetadas e a serem construídas em Cabo Verde.

Small-area estimation with spatial similarity

A class of composite estimators of small area quantities that exploit spatial (distancerelated)similarity is derived. It is based on a distribution-free model for the areas, but theestimators are aimed to have optimal design-based properties. Composition is applied alsoto estimate some of the global parameters on which the small area estimators depend.It is shown that the commonly adopted assumption of random effects is not necessaryfor exploiting the similarity of the districts (borrowing strength across the districts). Themethods are applied in the estimation of the mean household sizes and the proportions ofsingle-member households in the counties (comarcas) of Catalonia. The simplest version ofthe estimators is more efficient than the established alternatives, even though the extentof spatial similarity is quite modest.

Optimal information transmission in organizations: Search and congestion

We propose a stylized model of a problem-solving organization whoseinternal communication structure is given by a fixed network. Problemsarrive randomly anywhere in this network and must find their way to theirrespective specialized solvers by relying on local information alone.The organization handles multiple problems simultaneously. For this reason,the process may be subject to congestion. We provide a characterization ofthe threshold of collapse of the network and of the stock of foatingproblems (or average delay) that prevails below that threshold. We buildupon this characterization to address a design problem: the determinationof what kind of network architecture optimizes performance for any givenproblem arrival rate. We conclude that, for low arrival rates, the optimalnetwork is very polarized (i.e. star-like or centralized ), whereas it islargely homogenous (or decentralized ) for high arrival rates. We also showthat, if an auxiliary assumption holds, the transition between these twoopposite structures is sharp and they are the only ones to ever qualify asoptimal.

Alexithymia in patients recently diagnosed with cancer

Background: Contrary to the frequent assumption that alexithymia is a rather static personality trait hampering psychotherapeutic approaches, we have observed that cancer patients who qualify for the criteria of alexithymia may benefit from psychotherapy. Therefore, in patients facing a cancer diagnosis, alexithymia can often be considered as a state due to the threat of the disease (secondary alexithymia).Aims: To identify prevalence of alexithymia in newly diagnosed cancer patients and to document its evolution with and without psychotherapeutic interventions.Methods: Between 2006 and summer 2009, every newpatient of the Oncology Service of the University Hospital Lausanne was invited to benefit from psychotherapeutic support. Accepting patients were randomly assigned to a psychotherapeutic intervention or to a 4-month waiting list. Psychotherapies were formalized as psychodynamic-oriented short interventions (1-4 sessions) or brief psychodynamic psychotherapies (16 sessions). Patients who declined psychotherapeutic support were asked to participate in an observational group. Socio-demographic and medical data, alexithymia (TAS), anxiety and depression (SCL-90, HADS) and quality of life (EORTC) of participants of all groups were recorded at base line and at 1, 4, 8 and 12-months follow-up. Results: Of the 419 patients included, 190 desired psychotherapeutic support (94 were assigned to an immediate and 96 to a delayed intervention) and 229 patients accepted to be followed in the observational group. A very high proportion, almost 2/3 of the patients in all groups, qualified for alexithymia. With regard to the evolution of alexithymia, no significant changes were observed within and between groups and psychological symptoms also remained almost stable.Conclusions: Secondary alexithymia seems to be highly prevalent in newly diagnosed cancer patients. This raises important clinical and scientific questions: are these patients deprived from psychological support? How should interventions be conceptualized? Are interventions necessary and beneficial? Does alexithymia neutralize the effect of interventions on symptoms of anxiety and depression? Which outcome should be chosen for patients with secondary alexithymia?Keywords: Alexithymia, cancer, psycho-oncology, psychotherapy, secondary alexithymia

Parental altruism under imperfect information: Theory and evidence

Can we reconcile the predictions of the altruism model of the familywith the evidence on intervivos transfers in the US? This paper expandsthe altruism model by introducing e ?ort of the child and by relaxingthe assumption of perfect information of the parent about the labormarket opportunities of the child. First, I solve and simulate a modelof altruism under imperfect information. Second, I use cross-sectionaldata to test a prediction of the model: Are parental transfers especiallyresponsive to the income variations of children who are very attached tothe labor market? The results suggest that imperfect information accountsfor several patterns of intergenerational transfers in the US.