Regression to the mean: what it is and how to deal with it

Background Regression to the mean (RTM) is a statistical phenomenon that can make natural variation in repeated data look like real change. It happens when unusually large or small measurements tend to be followed by measurements that are closer to the mean. Methods We give some examples of the phenomenon, and discuss methods to overcome it at the design and analysis stages of a study. Results The effect of RTM in a sample becomes more noticeable with increasing measurement error and when follow-up measurements are only examined on a sub-sample selected using a baseline value. Conclusions RTM is a ubiquitous phenomenon in repeated data and should always be considered as a possible cause of an observed change. Its effect can be alleviated through better study design and use of suitable statistical methods.

Intervention Trial to Assess Arsenic Exposure from Food Crops in Bangladesh

The authors assessed the contribution of food irrigated with arsenic-contaminated water to human exposure to arsenic in Bangladesh. An intervention trial was conducted in a village in the Jessore District of Bangladesh, where irrigation water had been field-tested in March 2000 and was found to contain arsenic with concentrations ranging from 100 to 500 mu g/l. In May 2000, a random sample of 63 households was selected from the village, and I eligible person from each household was recruited to the study and randomized to an intervention or control group. The intervention group received food purchased from a village where irrigation water was found to contain 100 mu g/l arsenic. Pre- and postintervention urine samples were collected for urinary arsenic speciation assays. Preintervention, the mean urinary total arsenic concentrations were 139.25 mu g/l and 129.15 mu g/l for the intervention and control groups, respectively. These concentrations did not change significantly following intervention. Arsenic concentrations in samples of selected raw and cooked foods from the low-contamination area did not contain less arsenic than samples from the high-contamination area. Further studies to investigate the arsenic content of food grown in areas with high and low arsenic contamination of irrigation water are recommended.

Predictors and outcomes of early motherhood in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

Early motherhood is identified as a social problem, and having children at an early age is assumed to lead to psychological distress, welfare dependence and socioeconomic disadvantage. Analysis of responses from 9,689 young participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health was used to examine predictors and outcomes of early motherhood in Australia. Survey 1 (1996, aged 18 - 23) and Survey 2 (2000, aged 22 - 27), were used to categorize women as Childless, Existing Mothers (before Survey 1) and New Mothers (became mothers before Survey 2). Multivariate logistic regressions provided comparisons on sociodemographics, gynaecological variables, psychological wellbeing and health behaviours. Survey 1 data show that Existing Mothers experience socioeconomic disadvantages and unhealthy lifestyles. However, those who will go on to become mothers earlier than their peers already experience similar disadvantages. Further, the Survey 2 data show that, when these pre-existing disadvantages are controlled for, the additional deficits experienced by early mothers are relatively minor. Social disadvantage predisposes women to become mothers early, and to adopt unhealthy behaviours. However, young Australian women cope well with the challenges of early motherhood. In the longer term, unhealthy lifestyles and low education may lead to ill health and disadvantage, but early motherhood is not the initiator of this trajectory.

Knowledge and perceptions about HIV/AIDS and safer sex practices among Korean-Americans in Dade County, Florida

This study was conducted to identify Korean-Americans' knowledge, perceptions, and efficacy (both self and response) relating to HIV/AIDS, as well as safer sex practices. Age, gender, education, Confucianism, religion, and acculturation were also examined for potential relationships with the main variables. A total of 200 Korean-Americans in Dade County, Florida, participated in the study. The mean age of the participants was 32.6 years (range 19-55). The AIDS Risk Assessment Questionnaire (ARA-Q) derived from the AIDS Risk Measurement Study Questionnaire (ARMS-Q) and the Risk Behavior Assessment (RBA) were used for data collection. The overall mean score of HIV/AIDS knowledge was 12.3 (77%) out of a possible 16. Knowledge, and perceptions about HIV/AIDS were not related to safer sex practices. Significant correlations between attitudes toward condoms and the frequency of condom use during oral intercourse were evident. Male subjects reported more sexual partners in their lifetime and more frequent condom use during vaginal intercourse during the last year than female subjects. The number of sexual partners in the last year was not related to perceived HIV/AIDS susceptibility and response-efficacy among men or women, but response-efficacy positively correlated to frequency of condom use among both genders. Acculturation scores were positively correlated with the number of sexual partners and the frequency of condom use during vaginal intercourse for men and women. Further research is needed to determine factors that may increase the cultural relevance of AIDS prevention strategies to the Korean-American community. The findings of this study may be used as a basis for designing culturally-sensitive HIV/AIDS education programs to reach various segments of this ethnic community. ^

A phenomenology of crack abuse

The aim of this dissertation is to identify, describe, and explain the common experiences defining the crack abuser's life-world. Its method is phenomenological. Using basic cybernetic premises, a neurophysiologically oriented phenomenological framework concerning the constitution of thoughts, memories, and perceptions is first written. The framework is designed to hypothetically represent the neuropathology of crack abuse within a perspective that prescinds and describes the constitution, flow, and interdependence of experience. After the framework is written, the dissertation outlines the neuro-psychopharmacology of crack abuse and delimits crack abusers as a specific group within the more general population of cocaine users. It then represents the neuropathology of crack abuse within its phenomenological framework and uses the first-person accounts of forty-two crack dependents to actualize a phenomenological sketch of the crack abuser's life-world. The ethnographies afford the possibility of writing a “thick” description of the crack abuser's daily life—one that communicates the substance, order, and subjective and cultural dimensions of the dependent's defining experiences. ^ The dissertation's goals are successfully realized. The framework written and the ethnographies recorded and transcribed, the dissertation is able to identify, describe, and to a certain extent explain some of the common experiences defining the crack abusers life-world. The dissertation concludes that the crack abuser's life-world is organized around three primary and four secondary experiences. His primary experiences include: (1) an almost complete, yet fleeting, satisfaction of the ego's innate insufficiency and sublime, erotic-like stimulation of its core, (2) a fundamental inclination and expansion of the uniquely oriented euphoria-dysphoria dynamic that vivifies and orients the flow of consciousness, and (3) a change in the ego's innate structure. His secondary experiences include: (a) a characteristic aiming of projects, actions, and conduct toward the procurement and consumption of crack, (b) a denigration in the hold of legitimations and institutionalizations on the thematic field, (c) a strict alignment and a contraction in the scope of logical types pointing to the salient experiences within the stock of knowledge, and (d) for some crack abusers, ontological insecurity, despair, and exhaustion. ^

Coronary heart disease risk factors among tri-ethnic students at Florida International University

The present study identified and compared Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) risk factors quantified as “CHD risk point standards” (CHDRPS) among tri-ethnic (White non-Hispanic [WNH], Hispanic [H], and Black non-Hispanic [BNH]) college students. All 300 tri-ethnic subjects completed the Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Instruments and had blood pressure readings recorded on three occasions. The Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis (BIA) was used to measure body composition. Students' knowledge of CHD risk factors was also measured. In addition, a 15 ml fasting blood sample was collected from 180 subjects and blood lipids and Homocysteine (tHcy) levels were measured. Data were analyzed by gender and ethnicity using one-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) with Bonferroni's pairwise mean comparison procedure, Pearson correlation, and Chi-square test with follow-up Bonferroni's Chi-square tests. ^ The mean score of CHDRPS for all subjects was 19.15 ± 6.79. Assigned to the CHD risk category, college students were below-average risk of developing CHD. Males scored significantly (p < 0.013) higher for CHD risk than females, and BNHs scored significantly (p < 0.033) higher than WNHs. High consumption of dietary fat saturated fat and cholesterol resulted in a high CHDRPS among H males and females and WNH females. High alcohol consumption resulted in a high CHDRPS among all subjects. Mean tHcy ± SD of all subjects was 6.33 ± 3. 15 μmol/L. Males had significantly (p < 0.001) higher tHcy than females. Black non-Hispanic females and H females had significantly (p < 0.003) lower tHcy than WNH females. Positive associations were found between tHcy levels and CHDRPS among females (p < 0.001), Hs (p < 0.001), H males (p < 0.049), H females (p < 0.009), and BNH females (p < 0.005). Significant positive correlations were found between BMI levels and CHDRPS in males (p < 0.001), females (p < 0.001), WNHs (p < 0.008), Hs (p < 0.001), WNH males (p < 0.024), H males (p < 0.004) and H females (p < 0.001). The mean knowledge of CHD questions of all subjects was 71.70 ± 7.92 out of 100. The mean knowledge of CHD was significantly higher for WNH males (p < 0.039) than BNH males. A significant inverse correlation (r = 0.392, p < 0.032) was found between the CHD knowledge and CHDRPS in WNH females. The researcher's findings indicate strong gender and ethnic differences in CHD risk factors among the college-age population. ^

Longitudinal effects of family factors on alcohol use and alcohol-related problems among males from pre-adolescence to adulthood

The goal of this study was to examine the longitudinal effects of five family factors on alcohol use among adolescent males. The family factors included familism (family pride, loyalty, and cohesion), parent derogation (being put down by parents), parent/child communication, family alcohol problems and family drug problems. The study focused on the effects of the family factors reported by a sample of 451 White-non-Hispanic and African American males during early and mid-adolescence on (1) the intensity of alcohol use in mid-adolescence, and (2) the number of problems associated with alcohol use during the transition to young adulthood. The study also explored racial differences in the effects of the family factors. The data for this study were derived from a two-phase longitudinal epidemiologic cohort study of male and female adolescents enrolled in middle schools in Miami, FL. Data were collected at four points between 1990 and 2001. Linear and logistical regressions were used to analyze the effects of the family variables on the dependent variables. ^ The results of the analyses indicated that all of the family variables except family drug problems were statistically significant predictors of the level of alcohol use and alcohol-related problems. Familism had a moderate influence on both of the dependent variables at all data points, while parent derogation, parent/child communication and family alcohol problems were weak predictors. While the family factors varied by race, their impact on the dependent variables did not vary substantially. ^ This study had methodological shortcomings related to measurement and design that may have contributed to the weak influence of the variables. Future studies should explore possible mediating effects of these variables, and should employ more sensitive measures that are culturally appropriate. The results suggest that, since early family factors have long-term effects on children's substance-using behaviors, the family environment should be addressed in prevention and intervention efforts. ^

Risk factors of coronary heart disease and correlates of type 2 diabetes among Cuban Americans

Cuban Americans, a minority Hispanic subgroup, have a high prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Persons with diabetes experience a higher rate of coronary heart disease (CHD) compared to those without diabetes. The objectives of the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Disease (NIDDK) are to investigate the risk factors of CHD and the etiology of diabetes among diabetics of minority ethnic populations. No information is available on the etiology of CHD risks for Cuban Americans. ^ This cross-sectional study compared Cuban Americans with (N = 79) and without (N = 80) type 2 diabetes residing in South Florida. Data on risk factors of CHD and type 2 diabetes were collected using sociodemographics, smoking habit, Rose Angina, Modifiable Activity, and Willet's food frequency questionnaires. Anthropometrics and blood pressure (BP) were recorded. Glucose, glycated hemoglobin, lipid profile, homocysteine, and C-reactive protein were assessed in fasting blood. ^ Diabetics reported a significantly higher rate of angina symptoms than non-diabetics (P = 0.008). After adjusting for age and gender, diabetics had significantly (P < 0.001) larger waist circumference and higher systolic BP than non-diabetics. There was no significant difference in major nutrient intakes between the groups. One quarter of subjects, both diabetics and non-diabetics, exceeded the intake of percent calories from total fat and almost 60% had cholesterol intake >200 mg/d and more than 60% had fiber intake <20 gm/d. The pattern of physical activity did not differ between groups though, it was much below the recommended level. After adjusting for age and gender, diabetics had significantly (P < 0.001) higher levels of blood glucose, glycated hemoglobin, triglycerides, and homocysteine than non-diabetics. In contrast, diabetics had significantly (P < 0.01) lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). ^ Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that increasing age, male gender, large waist circumference, lack of acculturation, and high levels of triglycerides were independent risk factors of type 2 diabetes. In contrast, moderate alcohol consumption conferred protection against diabetes. ^ The study identified several risk factors of CHD and diabetes among Cuban Americans. Health care providers are encouraged to practice ethno-specific preventive measures to lower the burden of CHD and diabetes in Cuban Americans. ^

Relational predictors of condom use among adolescents in outpatient substance abuse treatment

Past HIV interventions have been critiqued for their failure to incorporate relational factors linked to condom use. Furthermore, few studies have focused on the relational context of sexual risk behavior among adolescents at elevated risk for HIV/STI exposure in the context of substance use. Therefore, this study evaluated the influence of three key relational factors (rejection sensitivity, intimacy dating goals, intercourse-related anxiety) salient for understanding condom use among adolescents in outpatient substance abuse treatment in South Florida. Structural equation modeling was used to test relational factors as direct and indirect predictors of condom use. Specifically, the current study investigated the influence of rejection sensitivity and intimacy dating goals on percentage of protected intercourse, with intercourse-related anxiety modeled as a mediator of this association. ^ Results obtained from the hypothesized structural model suggest rejection sensitivity and intimacy dating goals are significant predictors of percentage of protected intercourse. As expected, rejection sensitivity was related to lower levels of percentage of protected intercourse via heightened levels of intercourse-related anxiety and was not related directly to percentage of protected intercourse. Intercourse-related anxiety was indicated as a partial mediator between rejection sensitivity and percentage of protected intercourse. In contrast, intimacy dating goals was related to lower levels of percentage of protected intercourse directly. The findings demonstrate the importance of relational factors in condom use among adolescents in outpatient substance abuse treatment. Levels of protected intercourse are likely to increase when relational factors are targeted among adolescents in this high-risk population. Implications for prevention strategies targeting this high-risk subgroup of adolescents are discussed. ^

Relationships among dietary intake, dietary patterns, dietary quality and nutrient adequacy and substance use in Latina mother/daughter dyads

This study examined the relationships among dietary intake, substance use, socioeconomic and acculturation-related factors among Latinas in Miami-Dade County. Substance abuse is rising among Latinas. A fuller understanding of this problem is needed given the rise of the Hispanic population and the role of women in Latin society. A better understanding between substance use and dietary intake can guide nutrition interventions to reduce negative substance-related health consequences. A purposeful sample of 320 Latina mother/daughter dyads were recruited and interviewed face-to-face as part of the Latino Women's Study. Dietary intake was collected via a 24-hour recall and examined by (1) nutrient intake, (2) dietary patterns using cluster analysis, (3) quality of diet using the Healthy Eating Index (HEI) and (4) the Dietary Reference Intakes to determine nutrient adequacy. Substance use was measured with the Drug Use Frequency and the Healthy and Daily Living Form. Acculturation was measured with the Cultural Identity Scale. Three dietary patterns emerged based on the number of servings from the food groups established in MyPyramid. None were associated with substance use. Latinas who reported using cannabis, cocaine, sedatives without prescription and/or more than five alcoholic drinks on an occasion at least once a month during the previous twelve months had significantly lower HEI scores (64 vs. 60; F = 7.8, p = .005) and consumed fewer fruits (F = 16, p < .001) than non-users. Latinas classified as mothers whom reported consuming cannabis at least 1-7 times a week had significantly lower HEI scores (F = 4.23, p = .015, η2 = .027) than daughters with the same frequency of substance use. One dimension of acculturation, greater familiarity with Latin culture, was associated with good dietary quality (β = .142, p = .012) regardless of any type of substance used or income level. There was a high prevalence of inadequacy of folic acid intake (50-75%) regardless of substance use. Substance users consumed significantly more energy (1,798 vs. 1,615; p = .027) than non-users. Although effect sizes were small, associations between dietary intake and substance use among Latinas deserve further exploration while acknowledging the combined association with acculturation. ^

Comparison of coronary heart disease risk factors in foreign -born and United States-born Afro Caribbean Americans and African Americans in south Florida

In a cross-sectional study design, risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) were evaluated in three groups: 66 Afro Caribbeans (FBCA) living in the US for less than 10 years, 62 US-born Afro Caribbean (USBCA) and 61 African American (AA) adults (18–40 years), with equal numbers of males and females in each group. Socio-demographic, dietary, anthropometric and blood pressure data were collected. Fasting blood glucose, blood lipids and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) were determined. ^ The USBCA and AA participants compared to the FBCA participants consumed significantly (p < 0.05) more mean total fat (g) (66.3 ± 41.7 and 73.0 ± 47.8 vs. 52.8 ± 32.3), saturated fat (g) (23.1 ± 14.9 and 24.9 ± 15.8 vs. 18.6 ± 11.5), percent energy from fat (%) (33.1 ± 6.5 and 31.4 ± 6.4 vs. 29.3 ± 6.8), fat servings (1.8 ± 1.2 and 1.5 ± 1.0 vs. 1.2 ± 0.9), dietary cholesterol (mg) (220.4 ± 161.9 and 244.1 ± 155.0 vs. 168.8 ± 114.0) and sodium (mg) (2245.2 ± 1238.3 and 2402.6 ± 1359.3 vs. 1838.0 ± 983.4) and less than 2 servings of fruits per day (%) (86.9 and 94.9 vs. 78.5). These differences were more pronounced in males compared to females and remained after correcting for age. Also, the percentages of USBCA and AA participants who were obese (17.1% and 23.0%, respectively) were significantly (p < 0.05) higher compared to FBCA (7.6%) participants. More USBCA and AA than FBCA individuals smoked cigarettes (4.8% and 6.6% vs. 0.0%) and consumed alcoholic beverages (29.0% and 50.8% vs. 24.2%). The mean hs-CRP level of the AA participants (2.2 ± 2.7 mg/L) was significantly (p < 0.01) higher compared to the FBCA (1.1 ± 1.3 mg/L) and USBCA (1.3 ± 1.6 mg/L) participants. ^ The FBCA participants had a better CHD risk profile than the USBCA and AA participants. Focus should be placed on the ethnic and cultural differences in a population to better understand the variations in health indicators among different ethnic groups of the same race. This focus can provide healthcare professionals and policy planners with the opportunity to develop culturally sensitive programs and strategies for the improvement of health outcomes. ^

The practice and use of picuristes (lay injectionists) among Haitian immigrants in Miami -Dade County, Florida

This exploratory study examined use of picuristes among Haitian immigrants in Miami-Dade County, Florida. It describes how this health-seeking behavior is socially constructed among Haitian immigrants in terms of benefits. (b) risks, (c) sex, (d) gender, (e) acculturation proxies, and (f) transnational influences. It is conducted within the frameworks of Symbolic Interactionism, the Health Belief Model and the Explanatory Model of Illness. ^ Purposive sampling and a mixed-method design were used to obtain semistructured interviews of 10 picuristes and 25 users. The same methods were employed to select survey respondents so as to obtain a descriptive estimate of picuriste use and covariates of picuriste use within the sample. ATLAS.ti 5.0 and SPSS 14.0 were used to analyze the data. ^ The findings indicate an interconnection of elements from Vodou, traditional Haitian health beliefs and picuriste practice and use. ^ Rekonnèt, a relationship based on a history of trust with individuals related by blood or who share close personal and social ties was identified as a sufficient and necessary reason for picuriste practice and use. ^ Benefits reported are that the picuriste injections directly impact the blood, and that they represent affordable and convenient access to health care. Risks include rashes, abscesses and fevers. The reuse of injection equipment, routine injection of antibiotics and unknown substances and the improper discard of syringes and needles were reported, implying unrecognized risks of preventable infectious disease. No participant described a process that adheres to established international standards for safe injections. ^ There is no clear evidence that biological sex, gender, length of time in U.S. or language of interview influence picuriste practice or use. Transnational ties facilitate transport of substances from Haiti and the practice and use of picuristes locally. ^ Recommendation by a relative or trusted friend and believing that the benefits of picures outweigh risks were covariates of picuriste use. ^ This study highlights values and priorities of Haitian immigrants seeking healthcare, and cultural forces that shape their decisions about wellness and treatment. Future studies should test the application of Symbolic Interactionism to picuriste use in larger epidemiological studies that examine picuriste use in relation to health status.^

Beyond BMI: The “Metabolically healthy obese” phenotype & its association with clinical/subclinical cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality -- a systematic review

Background A subgroup has emerged within the obese that do not display the typical metabolic disorders associated with obesity and are hypothesized to have lower risk of complications. The purpose of this review was to analyze the literature which has examined the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in the metabolically healthy obese (MHO) population. Methods Pubmed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were searched from their inception until December 2012. Studies were included which clearly defined the MHO group (using either insulin sensitivity and/or components of metabolic syndrome AND obesity) and its association with either all cause mortality, CVD mortality, incident CVD, and/or subclinical CVD. Results A total of 20 studies were identified; 15 cohort and 5 cross-sectional. Eight studies used the NCEP Adult Treatment Panel III definition of metabolic syndrome to define “metabolically healthy”, while another nine used insulin resistance. Seven studies assessed all-cause mortality, seven assessed CVD mortality, and nine assessed incident CVD. MHO was found to be significantly associated with all-cause mortality in two studies (30%), CVD mortality in one study (14%), and incident CVD in three studies (33%). Of the six studies which examined subclinical disease, four (67%) showed significantly higher mean common carotid artery intima media thickness (CCA-IMT), coronary artery calcium (CAC), or other subclinical CVD markers in the MHO as compared to their MHNW counterparts. Conclusions MHO is an important, emerging phenotype with a CVD risk between healthy, normal weight and unhealthy, obese individuals. Successful work towards a universally accepted definition of MHO would improve (and simplify) future studies and aid inter-study comparisons. Usefulness of a definition inclusive of insulin sensitivity and stricter criteria for metabolic syndrome components as well as the potential addition of markers of fatty liver and inflammation should be explored. Clinicians should be hesitant to reassure patients that the metabolically benign phenotype is safe, as increased risk cardiovascular disease and death have been shown.

Time trends and predictors of initiation for cigarette and waterpipe smoking among Jordanian school children: Irbid, 2008-2011

Smoking prevalence among adolescents in the Middle East remains high while rates of smoking have been declining among adolescents elsewhere. The aims of this research were to (1) describe patterns of cigarette and waterpipe (WP) smoking, (2) identify determinants of WP smoking initiation, and (3) identify determinants of cigarette smoking initiation in a cohort of Jordanian school children. ^ Among this cohort of school children in Irbid, Jordan, (age ≈ 12.6 at baseline) the first aim (N=1,781) described time trends in smoking behavior, age at initiation, and changes in frequency of smoking from 2008–2011 (grades 7–10). The second aim (N=1,243) identified determinants of WP initiation among WP-naïve students; and the third aim (N=1,454) identified determinants of cigarette smoking initiation among cigarette naïve participants. Determinants of initiation were assessed with generalized mixed models. All analyses were stratified by gender. ^ Baseline prevalence of current smoking (cigarettes or WP) for boys and girls was 22.9% and 8.7% respectively. Prevalence of ever- and current- any smoking, cigarette smoking, WP smoking, and dual cigarette/WP smoking was higher in boys than girls each year (p<0.001). At all time points, prevalence of WP smoking was higher than that of cigarette smoking (p<0.001) for both boys and girls. WP initiation was documented in 39% of boys and 28% of girls. Cigarette initiation was documented in 37% of boys and 24% of girls. Determinants of WP initiation included ever-cigarette smoking, low WP refusal self-efficacy, intention to smoke, and having teachers and friends who smoke WP. Determinants of cigarette smoking initiation included ever-WP smoking, low cigarette refusal self-efficacy, intention to start smoking cigarettes, and having friends and family who smoke.^ These studies reveal intensive smoking patterns at early ages among Jordanian youth in Irbid, characterized by a predominance of WP smoking. WP may be a vehicle for tobacco dependence and subsequent cigarette uptake. The sizeable incidence of WP and cigarette initiation among students of both sexes points to a need for culturally relevant smoking prevention interventions. Gender-specific factors, refusal skills, and smoking cessation of both WP and cigarettes for youth and their parents/teachers would be important components of such initiatives. ^

Dimensions, discourses and differences : trainees conceptualising health care leadership and followership

© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.