Essays in applied econometrics

Using a unique dataset on Brazilian nominal and real yield curves combined with daily survey forecasts of macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, inflation, and exchange rate movements, we identify the effect of surprises to the Brazilian interbank target rate on expected future nominal and real short rates, term premia, and inflation expectations. We find that positive surprises to target rates lead to higher expected nominal and real interest rates and reduced nominal and inflation term premia. We also find a strongly positive relation between both real and nominal term premia and measures of dispersion in survey forecasts. Uncertainty about future exchange rates is a particularly important driver of variations in Brazilian term premia.

Customer intimacy strategy in B2B technology businesses in Colombia

The main objective of this Thesis is to analyze Customer Intimacy Strategy in B2B technology businesses in Colombia and the variables that have a direct relationship with it like perception, trust and networking. And how a Customer Intimacy Strategy can affect a company to achieve positive or negative results in an operation, in terms of business opportunities, relations and profitable and sustainable sales if properly managed or mismanaged. With a population of almost 50 million people, GDP average growth of 4.22%(considering 2013 up to 2017), a strategic geographic location in Latin America close to the middle of the region with direct access to the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, on the verge to reach a peace agreement ending its long time social and security conflict with the local guerrillas, Colombia is a country with a stable economic present and promising future. But despite the appealing business landscape and opportunities both in number and size, it is a developing economy where firms who are willing to run a startup or who currently have B2B technology operations in this country will find out that uncertainty and mistrust are two of the most critical variables that need to be overcome in order to achieve success. Their relevance will vary from one region to another, but will still be considered of most importance throughout the country. This matter is highly important to B2B technology businesses in Colombia because few firms are aware of the importance of customer intimacy strategy, believing that it is just a matter of social relationships and not considering the diverse number of variables such us perception, trust and networking that compose it. Customer intimacy strategy at the end becomes the main and most relevant source of sales in a B2B technology environment in Colombia.

Financial governance: the Brazilian experience on prudential regulation and its impacts on the effects of the 2008 financial crisis

The Brazilian economy was severely hit by the 2008 crisis. In the beginning of the crisis, the vast majorities of the economic agents and authorities thought that Brazil could face some sort of decoupling since some macroeconomic fundamentals were very good. What we saw, however, was that the Brazilian economy was not decoupled, and expectations faced a huge deterioration soon after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 15th. Two aspects regarding the impact of crisis in Brazil, however, deserve a great deal of attention: (a) although deep, the impact did not last for a long time. Actually, the GDP growth experienced a good recovery in the second quarter of 2009, showing that the health of the Brazilian economy was good; (b) the Brazilian banking system performed very well during the crisis, although we cannot say the system was not in danger in the worst time of the crisis. In spite of the confidence crisis faced by the banking system 1, it showed a great deal of resilience. In this aspect, we argue that the restructure faced by the banking system in the aftermath of the Real Plan, as well as the development of a solid supervision regulation helped a lot the system to avoid the systemic crisis that was an open possibility to the Brazilian banking system in the end of 2008. These notes, thus, discusse why the Brazilian banking system performed pretty well in the 2008 financial crisis and how the Brazilian banking (and prudential) regulation can be taken as responsible for this good performance. More specifically, the paper back to the middle of the 1990s, when the Real Plan was implemented, in order to understand the role played by the restructuring of the Brazilian financial system in helping to pave the way to the great resilience experienced by the Brazilian banking system during the 2008 crisis. More specifically, the prudential regulation that was implemented in Brazil in the aftermath of the Real Plan seems to play a decisive role in the resilience of the system nowadays.

Pricing the cost of an election: the impact of the 2014 elections on stock markets

Qual o efeito de eleições em ativos reais? É possível mensurar diretamente a diferença de preços mesmo que só possamos enxergar um dos resultados potenciais? Essa dissertação estima esses efeitos utilizando metodologia baseada em opções sobre ações. O modelo aqui desenvolvido adaptção tradicional Black-Scholes para incorporar dois novos parâmetros: um salto no preço do ativo perfeitamente antecipado e uma série de probabilidades diárias refletindo as crenças sobre quem venceria a corrida eleitoral. Aplicamos esse método para o caso brasileiro das Eleições Presidenciais de 2014 e a Petrobras - uma importante companhia do setor petrolífero do país -utilizando dados de bolsa do segundo turno das eleições. Os resultados encontrados mostram uma diferença de 65-77% para o valor da companhia, dependendo de quem vencesse nas urnas. Isso é equivalente a aproximadamente 2.5% do PIB de 2014 do país.

Planejameto municipal do turismo: diretrizes e perspectivas - o caso da SETURDE

Given the uncertainties of the environment in today's world, strategic planning is again discussed as an important tool to position the organization in future likely. To address this a more dynamic and less linear, trying to adapt the multiple realities, the method of scenarios can be one of the strategies to anticipate future designs. In the public sphere, an efficient implementation of human resources and financial managers require a new approach to the formulation of strategies. Tourism, in turn, presents itself as an important segment of the national economy shaped up as a major source of funds for the formation of the Gross Domestic Product - GDP - of states and municipalities. This study aims to know the guidelines and perspectives of municipal planning of tourism in the city of Natal/RN from the case by the representatives of the sector. The survey was developed based on a qualitative, exploratory, based on the case in the Secretaria Municipal de Turismo e Desenvolvimento Econômico - SETURDE. The results express that the body goes through a time of changes in its organizational structure and in defining its role with the local tourism. The national plan for tourism and the choice of Christmas as the host city for the World Cup in 2014 have stimulated interest in developing a formal strategic planning in the organization. However, when it comes to more complex tools, such as the method of future scenarios, the technical know its definition and importance for future actions. The results presented support the conclusion that the actions are designed intuitively and without complying with the scientific methods developed for this purpose, as the method of strategic scenarios. However, the evidence beginning to emerge from the plans and documents issued by the federal government, as well as the Secretary's own initiative, direct the actions of the body to coordinate and act as a fulcrum for local action to the increase in tourism

Diagnóstico ecotoxicológico dos efluentes lançados no complexo estuarino do Jundiaí/Potengi, Natal/RN

Untreated effluents that reach surface water affect the aquatic life and humans. This study aimed to evaluate the wastewater s toxicity (municipal, industrial and shrimp pond effluents) released in the Estuarine Complex of Jundiaí- Potengi, Natal/RN, through chronic quantitative e qualitative toxicity tests using the test organism Mysidopsis Juniae, CRUSTACEA, MYSIDACEA (Silva, 1979). For this, a new methodology for viewing chronic effects on organisms of M. juniae was used (only renewal), based on another existing methodology to another testorganism very similar to M. Juniae, the M. Bahia (daily renewal).Toxicity tests 7 days duration were used for detecting effects on the survival and fecundity in M. juniae. Lethal Concentration 50% (LC50%) was determined by the Trimmed Spearman-Karber; Inhibition Concentration 50% (IC50%) in fecundity was determined by Linear Interpolation. ANOVA (One Way) tests (p = 0.05) were used to determinate the No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) and Low Observed Effect Concentration (LOEC). Effluents flows were measured and the toxic load of the effluents was estimated. Multivariate analysis - Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Correspondence Analysis (CA) - identified the physic-chemical parameters better explain the patterns of toxicity found in survival and fecundity of M. juniae. We verified the feasibility of applying the only renewal system in chronic tests with M. Juniae. Most efluentes proved toxic on the survival and fecundity of M. Juniae, except for some shrimp pond effluents. The most toxic effluent was ETE Lagoa Aerada (LC50, 6.24%; IC50, 4.82%), ETE Quintas (LC50, 5.85%), Giselda Trigueiro Hospital (LC50, 2.05%), CLAN (LC50, 2.14%) and COTEMINAS (LC50, IC50 and 38.51%, 6.94%). The greatest toxic load was originated from ETE inefficient high flow effluents, textile effluents and CLAN. The organic load was related to the toxic effects of wastewater and hospital effluents in survival of M. Juniae, as well as heavy metals, total residual chlorine and phenols. In industrial effluents was found relationship between toxicity and organic load, phenols, oils and greases and benzene. The effects on fertility were related, in turn, with chlorine and heavy metals. Toxicity tests using other organisms of different trophic levels, as well as analysis of sediment toxicity are recommended to confirm the patterns found with M. Juniae. However, the results indicate the necessity for implementation and improvement of sewage treatment systems affluent to the Potengi s estuary

Predição não-linear de curvas de produção de petróleo via redes neurais recursivas

One of the main activities in the petroleum engineering is to estimate the oil production in the existing oil reserves. The calculation of these reserves is crucial to determine the economical feasibility of your explotation. Currently, the petroleum industry is facing problems to analyze production due to the exponentially increasing amount of data provided by the production facilities. Conventional reservoir modeling techniques like numerical reservoir simulation and visualization were well developed and are available. This work proposes intelligent methods, like artificial neural networks, to predict the oil production and compare the results with the ones obtained by the numerical simulation, method quite a lot used in the practice to realization of the oil production prediction behavior. The artificial neural networks will be used due your learning, adaptation and interpolation capabilities

Variabilidade espacial de atributos químicos de um argissolo para aplicação de insumos à taxa variável em diferentes formas de relevo

A agricultura de precisão implica análise da variabilidade espacial de fatores de produção e a aplicação de insumos de forma localizada. Várias são as causas que condicionam a variabilidade espacial dos solos, sendo o relevo um dos fatores mais importantes. O presente estudo teve por objetivo analisar a variabilidade espacial dos atributos químicos do solo e a elaboração de mapas de necessidade de aplicação de insumos de forma localizada, em áreas com diferentes formas de relevo. Duas parcelas de 1 ha cada foram delimitadas em áreas com topografia côncava e convexa. Foram retiradas, em cada área, 242 amostras de solos em 121 pontos, nas profundidades de solo de 0,00-0,20 m e 0,20-0,40 m. Os resultados de análise química foram submetidos às análises da estatística descritiva, geoestatística e interpolação por krigagem. A área convexa apresentou maior variabilidade espacial do solo em relação a área côncava. A adoção da agricultura de precisão possibilitou economia de aproximadamente 25 kg ha-1 de P2O5 na área côncava.

Influência do relevo e erosão na variabilidade espacial de um Latossolo em Jaboticabal (SP)

Com o objetivo de avaliar as relações entre formas de paisagem e erosão em um Latossolo Vermelho eutroférrico (LVef) por meio de técnicas geoestatísticas na Fazenda Santa Isabel, município de Jaboticabal (SP), identificaram-se modelos de paisagem côncavo e linear. Coletaram-se amostras de solo em ambas as formas de paisagem em uma malha regular espaçada de 50 x 50 m em sete transeções na profundidade de 0,00-0,20 m, totalizando 412 pontos em 93 ha. Determinou-se a erodibilidade dos solos pelo método indireto, granulometria, bem como o carbono orgânico para cada ponto da malha, sendo esses valores usados na estimativa do potencial natural de erosão (pne). Os dados obtidos das propriedades de solo, erodibilidade e potencial natural de erosão foram analisados por meio de estatística descritiva e geoestatística com a modelagem de semivariogramas, sendo este utilizado para a confecção de mapas de krigagem. Segundo os resultados, as propriedades do solo e do pne apresentaram maior variabilidade espacial na pedoforma côncava, apesar de esta forma de paisagem apresentar menores perdas de solo por erosão e menor variabilidade espacial da erodibilidade. Deste modo, conclui-se que a erosão não adicionou variabilidade espacial para as propriedades do solo na mesma magnitude do relevo.

Distribuição espacial de Huanglongbing (Greening) em citros utilizando a geoestatística

Os objetivos do trabalho foram avaliar a distribuição espacial e a expansão da Huanglongbing (greening) em talhões de citros de uma propriedade agrícola localizada no município de Araraquara-SP, utilizando a geoestatística. Para determinar o número de plantas com greening, foram realizadas inspeções periódicas em intervalos de três meses, no período de março de 2005 a julho de 2007, contando-se, em cada talhão, o número de plantas com os sintomas característicos da doença. Realizou-se a análise descritiva dos dados e, para verificar a distribuição espacial do greening, utilizou-se a geoestatística através do ajuste de semivariogramas e da interpolação dos dados por krigagem. A dependência espacial de plantas com greening apresentou raio de agregação de 300 a 560 m, indicando distribuição agregada da doença. Por meio dos mapas de krigagem, observou-se que o foco inicial de plantas doentes ocorreu nos limites da fazenda, com expansão do greening por toda a área. O intervalo de inspeção de três meses não foi adequado para a redução do greening na fazenda.

Crescimento econômico e restrição externa da economia brasileira: uma análise do padrão das exportações em relação ao BRIC e do Sistema de Inovação do Brasil (1980-2012)

This Master s Thesis aims to use the theoretical models of growth with restricted balance of payments, specifically Kaldor (1970) and Thirlwall (1979) models, to analyze the behavior and the pattern of specialization of Brazilian exports and imports in the last years. It is observed that, in some periods, the pattern of specialization has contributed in restricting long-term growth of the Brazilian economy. It has been hypothesized that overall this is due to lack of structural transformation policies. To achieve this goal, it analyzed the performance of Brazilian exports and imports disaggregating them according to their technological content. The basis for comparison was a group of countries to which Brazil is inserted in, the BRIC. In this regard, the work is a comparative analysis by using descriptive statistics. It is concluded that the low rate of GDP growth experienced by Brazil since the 1980s can be explained in part by the decoupling of the Brazilian National Innovation System (NIS) and the Brazilian productive structure. This would be reducing the income elasticity of exports and raising imports, causing a pattern of specialization intensive primary commodities and labor and low-skill labor

O Cariri cearense: da ocupação do território à institucionalização da região metropolitana do Cariri

Urbanization in their mearing simpler, the agglomeration of people, occurred from the time that the productive activities have to be based on trade. The first cities arose when the evolution of agriculture allowed the production and storage of surpluses. However, with industrialization was that urbanization becomes intense, according to Singer (1987), the industrial revolution was to stage, from the beginning, the urban area. It requires, in its proximity, the presence of a large number of workers. With respect to the Cariri cearense, the occupation of its territory is associated with the movement of agricultural surpluses produced and reproduced under the hegemony of merchant capital and due to the development of extensive cattle that promoted the territorial occupation of Ceará. From the 1960s, the region has undergone changes in its productive structure due to industrial planning policies of the government of Ceará. However it was in the 1990s that the region itself as economic and urban polo because policies to attract investments from the state government of Ceará. This policy led to boosting trade and services marking the predominance of tertiary activities in the region, especially the retail, wholesale , medical services and education. Investments also consolidated the industrial park area making it diverse, especially the footwear industries, mining, non-metallic minerals, transport equipment, pharmaceutical chemical, food and beverages, rubber and leather and construction. Thus, the aim of this study was to review the region of Cariri cearense occupation of its territory institutionalizing its metropolitan region, to understand what factors influenced the Cariri cearense become an important area in urban and economic terms in the interior of Ceará. In order to develop this research in that refers to the methodological perspective, research is guided by bibliographic studies and also makes use of secondary data analysis (population, GDP, urbanization rate, employment) of the main databases the country, as IBGE, IPEADATA and RAIS - MTE

Estabelecimento e validação de normas DRIS para a cultura do algodão no centro-oeste do Brasil

Visando estabelecer normas para o DRIS na cultura do algodão, um produto agrícola em franca expansão no território nacional e com significativa contribuição econômica no PIB brasileiro, o presente trabalho estudou lavouras comerciais de municípios do Norte do Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul e Centro-Sul do Estado de Mato Grosso. Os resultados indicaram que a escolha da relação modifica a interpretação dos resultados, exceto quando é utilizada a metodologia proposta por Elwali e Gascho, pois, neste caso, os índices nutricionais convergem independentemente do método de escolha das relações. O método DRIS otimiza o gerenciamento das informações nutricionais do algodoeiro, e é possível detectar os nutrientes limitantes nas lavouras desta cultura.

Desempenho de bovinos confinados alimentados com dietas à base de farelo de algodão, uréia ou amiréia

O objetivo deste experimento foi avaliar o desempenho de bovinos em confinamento alimentados com rações suplementadas com concentrados protéicos à base de farelo de algodão (AL), uréia (UR) ou amiréia (AM), tendo como volumoso silagem de milho. O confinamento teve duração de 80 dias. As rações foram compostas mantendo a proporção volumoso:concentrado no nível de 63:37, com aproximadamente 13% PB. Não se constataram diferenças quanto ao ganho de peso diário (GDP) durante o período experimental total entre os tratamentos AL, UR ou AM (1,14; 1,17; e 1,23 kg/anim. dia), ou na ingestão de MS em % PV (2,63; 2,60; e 2,60% PV), em g/kg0,75 dia (136,19; 134,74; e 134,81) ou kg/anim. dia (9,42; 9,35; e 9,40), respectivamente. Os valores de ingestão de PB foram de 1,28; 1,24; e 1,34 kg de PB/anim. dia e de 18,54; 17,86; e 19,24 g/kg0,75 dia para os tratamentos AL, UR ou AM, não diferindo entre si. Valores obtidos para conversão alimentar da matéria seca foram de 8,41; 8,01; e 7,67 kg MSI/kg GPD e para conversão protéica, 1,15; 1,06; e 1,09 kg PBI/kg GPD, respectivamente, para os tratamentos AL, UR e AM, que foram semelhantes.