Global Systemic Risk and International Regulatory Coordination: Squaring Sovereignty and Financial Stability

In recent years much attention has been given to systemic risk and maintaining financial stability. Much of the focus, rightly, has been on market failures and the role of regulation in addressing them. This article looks at the role of domestic policies and government actions as sources of global instability. The global financial system is built upon global markets controlled by national financial and macroeconomic policies. In this context, regulatory asymmetries, diverging policy preferences, and government failures add a further dimension to global systemic risk not present at the national level.
Systemic risk is a result of the interplay between two independent variables: an underlying trigger event, in this analysis a domestic policy measure, and a transmission channel. The solution to systemic risk requires tackling one of these variables. In a domestic setting, the centralization of regulatory power into one single authority makes it easier to balance the delicate equilibrium between enhancing efficiency and reducing instability. However, in a global financial system in which national financial policies serve to maximize economic welfare, regulators will be confronted with difficult policy and legal tradeoffs.
We investigate the role that financial regulation plays in addressing domestic policy failures and in controlling the danger of global financial interdependence. To do so we analyse global financial interconnectedness, and explain its role in transmitting instability; we investigate the political economy dynamics at the origin of regulatory asymmetries and government failures; and we discuss the limits of regulation.

The direction of media influence: Real-estate news and the stock market

This paper uses a novel identification strategy to test the influence of news media on the stock market. Because the stock market does not impact the media coverage of the housing market, a relationship between real-estate news and shares of companies engaged in the housing market is attributable media influence. I find that the content of reporting exhibits a significant relationship with stock returns, and the amount of news with the number of trades. These relationships exist even after controlling for known risk factors, housing market performance and intra-week correlation. This finding is consistent with the function of the media as a source of information and sentiment in financial markets.

Similarity or Variation? Employee Representation and Consultation Approaches Amongst Liberal Market Economy Multinationals

This paper engages with the varieties of capitalism literature to investigate the employee representation and consultation approaches of liberal market economy multinational companies (MNCs), specifically Australian, British and US MNCs operating in Australia. While the literature would suggest commonality amongst these MNCs, the paper considers whether the evidence points to similarity or variation amongst liberal market headquartered MNCs. The findings contribute to filling a recognized empirical gap on MNC employment relations practice in Australia and to a better understanding of within category varieties of capitalism similarity and variation. Drawing on survey data from MNCs operating in Australia, the results demonstrated that UK-owned MNCs were the least likely to report collective structures of employee representation. Moreover, it was found that Australian MNCs were the most likely to engage in collective forms of employee representation and made less use of direct consultative mechanisms relative to their British and US counterparts. In spite of the concerted individualization of the employment relations domain over previous decades, Australian MNCs appear to have upheld more long-standing national institutional arrangements with respect to engaging with employees on a collective basis. This varies from British and US MNC approaches which denotes that our results display within category deviation in the variety of capitalism liberal market economy typology. Just as Hall and Soskice described their seminal work on liberal market economy (LME) and coordinated market economy (CME) categories as a “work-in-progress” (2001: 2), we too suggest that Australia’s evolution in the LME category, and more specifically its industrial relations system development, and the consequences for employment relations practices of its domestic MNCs, may be a work-in-progress.

Definição de uma política de água sustentável em Portugal: proposta de modelo financeiro

O presente trabalho aborda de que forma a Análise Económica pode contribuir para a definição de uma Política Pública da Água sustentável para Portugal. Analisam-se, inicialmente, as particularidades do recurso e o seu enquadramento legislativo, institucional, bem como as respectivas implicações no processo de gestão da água. Esta análise conduz à definição daquilo a que se chamará ―Novo Modelo de Gestão da Água‖. Tendo por enquadramento a Directiva-Quadro da Água (DQA) — Directiva 2000/60/CE de 23 de Outubro de 2000, publicada no Jornal Oficial das Comunidades Europeias, em 22 de Dezembro do mesmo ano — é ilustrada a aplicação dos conceitos e a abordagem desenvolvida na definição de uma estratégia política de actuação para Portugal, de modo a assegurar o seu cumprimento de forma eficaz, eficiente e sustentável. São discutidos os aspectos económicos e a justificação teórica para a intervenção nos mercados, nomeadamente através do desenvolvimento de sistemas de tarifas. As formas de financiamento do sector, à luz do princípio da recuperação de custos, são analisados propondo-se a chamada visão dos 4T. Dado o contexto de análise do sector da água, enquanto política pública, são referenciados os vários de tipos de regulação e as várias reformas propostas pelos principais investigadores e organizações internacionais. Neste contexto de análise é abordada a governação (governance) e os seus atributos. São enunciados os principais entraves a uma governação eficiente. As várias formas de participação do capital privado, bem como a descrição de algumas das suas potencialidades são postas em evidência. A partir de um modelo analítico procede-se ao estudo dos efeitos do uso de vários instrumentos económicos, nomeadamente a nível do bem-estar. Analisa-se o modelo institucional português, nas suas vertentes, legislativa e institucional. O estado dos recursos hídricos e dos serviços de água em Portugal é avaliado a partir de dados oficiais. Com base na identificação das restrições do actual modelo institucional, é proposto um novo modelo que responda de forma flexível e atempada às solicitações postas pela Directiva. Propõe se a criação de uma instituição financeira — o ―Banco da Água‖ — que, em condições de mercado, possa financiar os investimentos estruturais necessários à melhoria da qualidade dos recursos hídricos, bem como dos serviços associados à água. Pretende demonstrar-se que, face às restrições orçamentais, à esperada conclusão do Quadro de Referência Estratégico Nacional (QREN) e às limitações dos chamados project finance esta solução será necessária para o sucesso da Política Pública da Água. A criação de condições para um maior papel da iniciativa privada, uma legislação protectora do consumidor, a aplicação de instrumentos de política da água — nomeadamente sistemas de tarifas e a criação de um Fundo de Equilíbrio Tarifário —, e o uso da metodologia Oikomatrix, nas políticas sectoriais, são outras das sugestões que completam as propostas avançadas tendentes a que o Sector da Água mimize algumas das ineficiências detectadas e almeje à desejável sustentabilidade.

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

O grau de investimento definido por um indicador económico e financeiro

No contexto econômico competitivo e globalizado no qual as corporações estão inseridas, emerge a necessidade de evolução constante para acompanhar as mudanças que o ambiente lhes impõe, visando a sustentabilidade e a perpetuidade. A evolução econômica e financeira das corporações pode promover o desenvolvimento de uma nação, mesmo que o aumento da concorrência no mercado obrigue-as a investirem em novas relações com o seu universo, buscando melhorar os seus níveis de desempenho mensurados por meio de novos instrumentos economicos e financeiros. Desta forma, o grau de investimento corporativo passa a ser relevante, pois pode gerar confiança em novos investimentos, sendo visto como sinônimo de economia forte. No concernente ao objetivo, esta tese teve como escopo o desenvolvimento de um indicador econômico e financeiro visando balizar o grau de credibilidade rating que as corporações apresentam em sua estrutura corporativa, por meio de um conjunto de índices econômicos e financeiros ligados à liquidez, à lucratividade, ao endividamento e à rentabilidade, provindos das demonstrações econômicas e financeiras das corporações estudadas. Este estudo caracteriza-se no contexto da tipologia aplicada, de objetivo descritivo com delineamento bibliográfico, na amplitude da problemática, caracteriza-se como quantitativo, compreendendo a população de 70 corporações brasileiras reconhecidas pelas certificadoras internacionais, Standard & Poor's, Moody's e Fitch Ratings, as quais detinham o grau de investimento corporativo no ano de 2008. Quanto aos métodos e procedimentos estatísticos, primeiramente utilizou-se a análise descritiva com vistas ao resumo dos dados, posteriormente foi feita a análise de correlação por meio do Coeficiente de Correlação Linear de Pearson, aplicando-se em seguida a análise de regressão. Em seguida para a confecção do modelo utilizou-se a análise fatorial e para testificar sua confiabilidade o Alfa de Cronbach, utilizou-se também a análise discriminante, para classificação dos quartis. As conclusões do estudo baseiamse nos resultados apresentados pela evolução do tratamento estatístico, que inicialmente apresentam uma correlação predominantemente fraca, no entanto isto não invalida a correlação de Pearson, pois todos os coeficientes apresentaram uma significância de (p<0,05). Na aplicação da análise de regressão, todos os modelos apresentaram resultados satisfatórios sendo perceptível a existência de uma forte correlação. A confiabilidade do modelo de grau de investimento corporativo provindo da análise fatorial foi testificada pelo coeficiente do Alpha de Cronbach, que apresentou valor de 0,768, o que indica consistência interna satisfatória ao estudo. O grau de investimento na base longitudinal de 2008 a 2010 apresenta variabilidade de 95,72% a 98,33% de acertividade. Portanto, conclui-se que o indicador criado por este estudo, possui condições de ser utilizado como base de definição do grau de investimento de corporações empresariais.

Influência do risco de incumprimento nos retornos de capital

Sempre foi do interesse das instituições financeiras de crédito determinar o risco de incumprimento associado a uma empresa por forma a avaliar o seu perfil. No entanto, esta informação é útil a todos os stakeholders de uma empresa, já que também estes comprometem uma parte de si ao interagirem com esta. O aumento do número de insolvências nos últimos anos tem reafirmado a necessidade de ampliar e aprofundar a pesquisa sobre o stress financeiro. A identificação dos fatores que influenciam a determinação do preço dos ativos sempre foi do interesse de todos os stakeholders, por forma a antecipar a variação dos retornos e agir em sua conformidade. Nesta dissertação será estudada a influência do risco de incumprimento sobre os retornos de capital, usando como indicador do risco de incumprimento a probabilidade de incumprimento obtida segundo o modelo de opções de Merton (1974). Efetuou-se esta análise durante o período de Fevereiro de 2002 a Dezembro de 2011, utilizando dados de empresas Portuguesas, Espanholas e Gregas. Os resultados evidenciam uma relação negativa do risco de incumprimento com os retornos de capital, que é devida a um efeito momentum e à volatilidade. A par disso, também se demonstra que o tamanho e o book-to-market não são representativos do risco de incumprimento na amostra aqui utilizada, ao contrário do que Fama & French (1992; 1996) afirmavam.

Optimal alarms systems and its application to financial time series

This thesis focuses on the application of optimal alarm systems to non linear time series models. The most common classes of models in the analysis of real-valued and integer-valued time series are described. The construction of optimal alarm systems is covered and its applications explored. Considering models with conditional heteroscedasticity, particular attention is given to the Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH, FIAPARCH(p; d; q) model and an optimal alarm system is implemented, following both classical and Bayesian methodologies. Taking into consideration the particular characteristics of the APARCH(p; q) representation for financial time series, the introduction of a possible counterpart for modelling time series of counts is proposed: the INteger-valued Asymmetric Power ARCH, INAPARCH(p; q). The probabilistic properties of the INAPARCH(1; 1) model are comprehensively studied, the conditional maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is applied and the asymptotic properties of the conditional ML estimator are obtained. The final part of the work consists on the implementation of an optimal alarm system to the INAPARCH(1; 1) model. An application is presented to real data series.

Recent developments in the Portuguese nut sector

This work aims to present the main results of an overview study of the nut sector in Portugal. Within the group of horticultural products, different kinds of nuts have been receiving financial supports for several years. The objective was the achievement of a technical recovery and the improvement of commercial organisations. In spite of this help, the sector does not show a clear signal of dynamism. In this study, information has been taken from data series on production, exports and imports and also about empirical approaches on market mechanismsT. hese instruments have helpedt o better identify problems that seemto be responsible for the lack of performance of the Portuguese nut sector in international markets.

Taxation and Household Financial Decisions: Evidence from the Bush Tax Acts

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2013

Product innovation and the costs of energy-using product policies

Energy-using Products (EuPs) contribute significantly to the United Kingdom’s CO2 emissions, both in the domestic and non-domestic sectors. Policies that encourage the use of more energy efficient products (such as minimum performance standards, energy labelling, enhanced capital allowances, etc.) can therefore generate significant reductions in overall energy consumption and hence, CO2 emissions. While these policies can impose costs on the producers and consumers of these products in the short run, the process of product innovation may reduce the magnitude of these costs over time. If this is the case, then it is important that the impacts of innovation are taken into account in policy impact assessments. Previous studies have found considerable evidence of experience curve effects for EuP categories (e.g. refrigerators, televisions, etc.), with learning rates of around 20% for both average unit costs and average prices; similar to those found for energy supply technologies. Moreover, the decline in production costs has been accompanied by a significant improvement in the energy efficiency of EuPs. Building on these findings and the results of an empirical analysis of UK sales data for a range of product categories, this paper sets out an analytic framework for assessing the impact of EuP policy interventions on consumers and producers which takes explicit account of the product innovation process. The impact of the product innovation process can be seen in the continuous evolution of the energy class profiles of EuP categories over time; with higher energy classes (e.g. A, A+, etc.) entering the market and increasing their market share, while lower classes (e.g. E, F, etc.) lose share and then leave the market. Furthermore, the average prices of individual energy classes have declined over their respective lives, while new classes have typically entered the market at successively lower “launch prices”. Based on two underlying assumptions regarding the shapes of the “lifecycle profiles” for the relative sales and the relative average mark-ups of individual energy classes, a simple simulation model is developed that can replicate the observed market dynamics in terms of the evolution of market shares and average prices. The model is used to assess the effect of two alternative EuP policy interventions – a minimum energy performance standard and an energy-labelling scheme – on the average unit cost trajectory and the average price trajectory of a typical EuP category, and hence the financial impacts on producers and consumers.

Does Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Have a Role in US Managed Care Drug Formularies? An Empirical Study of Utilization, Costs, Outcomes, and Elasticity of Demand of a Value-Based Formulary

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2015

How can economic and political liberalisation improve financial development in African countries?

The objective of this paper is to study the interactions between Economic liberalisation, Political liberalisation and Financial development in African countries. More specifically, we seek to establish the impact of Economic, Political and institutional openness on financial deepening. The empirical approach will be two-step procedure, first using a difference in difference method to show the various aspect of financial liberalisation on economic and political freedom while the second step will be using panel data techniques from period 1990 to 2005. The estimation results can be summarised as the following, first, Economic and financial liberalisation did account significantly for the financial development performance. While political stability show a positive overall effect on financial development, the association with Political freedom is consistent only after controlling the endogeneity of Political freedom on financial development. This result indicates that the transformation of the political and economic environment has improved the performance of the financial sector.

Financial development and income inequality: evidence from African countries

This paper present empirical evidence on how financial development is related to income distribution in a panel data set covering 22 African countries for the period between 1990 to 2004. A dynamic panel estimation technique (GMM) is employ and the findings indicate that income inequality decrease as economies develop their financial sector, which is consistent with the bulk of theoretical and empirical research. The result also confirm that educational attainment play a significant role in making income distribution more equal. We also find no evidence supporting the Greenwood-Jovanovic hypothesis of an inverted-U- shaped relationship between financial sector development and inequality.

Consumer confidence indices and stock markets’ meltdowns

Consumer confidence indices (CCIs) are a closely monitored barometer of countries’ economic health and an informative forecasting tool. Using European and US data, we provide a case study of the two recent stock market meltdowns (the post-dotcom bubble correction of 2000–2002 and the 2007–2009 decline at the beginning of the financial crisis) to contribute to the discussion on their appropriateness as proxies for stock markets’ investor sentiment. Investor sentiment should positively covary with stock market movements (DeLong, Shleifer, Summers, and Waldmann 1990); however, we find that the CCI–stock market relationship is not universally positive.We also do not find support for the information effect documented in the previous literature, but identify a more subtle relationship between consumer expectations about future household finances and stock market fluctuations.