Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis, 2nd edition

Now in its second edition, this book describes tools that are commonly used in transportation data analysis. The first part of the text provides statistical fundamentals while the second part presents continuous dependent variable models. With a focus on count and discrete dependent variable models, the third part features new chapters on mixed logit models, logistic regression, and ordered probability models. The last section provides additional coverage of Bayesian statistical modeling, including Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Data sets are available online to use with the modeling techniques discussed.

Governors highway safety associations and transportation planning: Exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modeling

The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) of 1991 mandated the consideration of safety in the regional transportation planning process. As part of National Cooperative Highway Research Program Project 8-44, "Incorporating Safety into the Transportation Planning Process," we conducted a telephone survey to assess safety-related activities and expertise at Governors Highway Safety Associations (GHSAs), and GHSA relationships with metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and state departments of transportation (DOTs). The survey results were combined with statewide crash data to enable exploratory modeling of the relationship between GHSA policies and programs and statewide safety. The modeling objective was to illuminate current hurdles to ISTEA implementation, so that appropriate institutional, analytical, and personnel improvements can be made. The study revealed that coordination of transportation safety across DOTs, MPOs, GHSAs, and departments of public safety is generally beneficial to the implementation of safety. In addition, better coordination is characterized by more positive and constructive attitudes toward incorporating safety into planning.

Reliability evaluations of railway power supplies by fault-tree analysis

High reliability of railway power systems is one of the essential criteria to ensure quality and cost-effectiveness of railway services. Evaluation of reliability at system level is essential for not only scheduling maintenance activities, but also identifying reliability-critical components. Various methods to compute reliability on individual components or regularly structured systems have been developed and proven to be effective. However, they are not adequate for evaluating complicated systems with numerous interconnected components, such as railway power systems, and locating the reliability critical components. Fault tree analysis (FTA) integrates the reliability of individual components into the overall system reliability through quantitative evaluation and identifies the critical components by minimum cut sets and sensitivity analysis. The paper presents the reliability evaluation of railway power systems by FTA and investigates the impact of maintenance activities on overall reliability. The applicability of the proposed methods is illustrated by case studies in AC railways.

Intradialytic exercise : a feasibility study

Background: Exercise is known to improve mental and physical functioning and to improve quality of life. The obstacles faced by individuals with chronic kidney disease on maintenance haemodialysis include increased levels of fatigue, decreased motivation, and the inability to schedule exercise around daily activities and dialysis schedules. Aim: This pilot study was undertaken to determine the feasibility and potential efficacy of an individually-tailored exercise program for in-centre haemodialysis patients. Method: A 16 week program was designed and evaluated in relation to changes in physical capacity, the extent of exercise undertaken, and quality of life indicators. Results and Conclusion: The resultant recommendations regarding the level of motivational support, the time and physical requirements in implementing an exercise program will provide useful information for others embarking on similar studies.

Determinants of infant and young child feeding practices in Bangladesh: Secondary data analysis of Demographic and Health Survey 2004

BACKGROUND: In Bangladesh, poor infant and young child feeding practices are contributing to the burden of infectious diseases and malnutrition. Objective. To estimate the determinants of selected feeding practices and key indicators of breastfeeding and complementary feeding in Bangladesh. METHODS: The sample included 2482 children aged 0 to 23 months from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey of 2004. The World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended infant and young child feeding indicators were estimated, and selected feeding indicators were examined against a set of individual-, household-, and community-level variables using univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Only 27.5% of mothers initiated breastfeeding within the first hour after birth, 99.9% had ever breastfed their infants, 97.3% were currently breastfeeding, and 22.4% were currently bottle-feeding. Among infants under 6 months of age, 42.5% were exclusively breastfed, and among those aged 6 to 9 months, 62.3% received complementary foods in addition to breastmilk. Among the risk factors for an infant not being exclusively breastfed were higher socioeconomic status, higher maternal education, and living in the Dhaka region. Higher birth order and female sex were associated with increased rates of exclusive breastfeeding of infants under 6 months of age. The risk factors for bottle-feeding were similar and included having a partner with a higher educational level (OR = 2.17), older maternal age (OR for age > or = 35 years = 2.32), and being in the upper wealth quintiles (OR for the richest = 3.43). Urban mothers were at higher risk for not initiating breastfeeding within the first hour after birth (OR = 1.61). Those who made three to six visits to the antenatal clinic were at lower risk for not initiating breastfeeding within the first hour (OR = 0.61). The rate of initiating breastfeeding within the first hour was higher in mothers from richer households (OR = 0.37). CONCLUSIONS: Most breastfeeding indicators in Bangladesh were below acceptable levels. Breastfeeding promotion programs in Bangladesh need nationwide application because of the low rates of appropriate infant feeding indicators, but they should also target women who have the main risk factors, i.e., working mothers living in urban areas (particularly in Dhaka).

Determinants of infant and young child feeding practices in Sri Lanka : secondary data analysis of demographic and health survey 2000

Background: Poor feeding practices in early childhood contribute to the burden of childhood malnutrition and morbidity. Objective: To estimate the key indicators of breastfeeding and complementary feeding and the determinants of selected feeding practices in Sri Lanka. Methods: The sample consisted of 1,127 children aged 0 to 23 months from the Sri Lanka Demographic and Health Survey 2000. The key infant feeding indicators were estimated and selected indicators were examined against a set of individual-, household-, and community- level variables using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Breastfeeding was initiated within the first hour after birth in 56.3% of infants, 99.7% had ever been breastfed, 85.0% were currently being breastfed, and 27.2% were being bottle-fed. Of infants under 6 months of age, 60.6% were fully breastfed, and of those aged 6 to 9 months, 93.4% received complementary foods. The likelihood of not initiating breastfeeding within the first hour after birth was higher for mothers who underwent cesarean delivery (OR = 3.23) and those who were not visited by a Public Health Midwife at home during pregnancy (OR = 1.81). The rate of full breastfeeding was significantly lower among mothers who did not receive postnatal home visits by a Public Health Midwife. Bottlefeeding rates were higher among infants whose mothers had ever been employed (OR = 1.86), lived in a metropolitan area (OR = 3.99), or lived in the South-Central Hill country (OR = 3.11) and were lower among infants of mothers with secondary education (OR = 0.27). Infants from the urban (OR = 8.06) and tea estate (OR = 12.63) sectors were less likely to receive timely complementary feeding than rural infants. Conclusions: Antenatal and postnatal contacts with Public Health Midwives were associated with improved breastfeeding practices. Breastfeeding promotion strategies should specifically focus on the estate and urban or metropolitan communities.

Determinants of infant and young child feeding practices in Nepal : secondary data analysis of demographic and health survey 2006

Background: Childhood undernutrition and mortality are high in Nepal, and therefore interventions on infant and young child feeding practices deserve high priority. Objective. To estimate infant and young child feeding indicators and the determinants of selected feeding practices. Methods: The sample consisted of 1,906 children aged 0 to 23 months from the Demographic and Health Survey 2006. Selected indicators were examined against a set of variables using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results. Breastfeeding was initiated within the first hour after birth in 35.4% of children, 99.5% were ever breastfed, 98.1% were currently breastfed, and 3.5% were bottle-fed. The rate of exclusive breastfeeding among infants under 6 months of age was 53.1%, and the rate of timely complementary feeding among those 6 to 9 months of age was 74.7%. Mothers who made antenatal clinic visits were at a higher risk for no exclusive breastfeeding than those who made no visits. Mothers who lived in the mountains were more likely to initiate breastfeeding within 1 hour after birth and to introduce complementary feeding at 6 to 9 months of age, but less likely to exclusively breastfeed. Cesarean deliveries were associated with delay in timely initiation of breastfeeding. Higher rates of complementary feeding at 6 to 9 months were also associated with mothers with better education and those above 35 years of age. Risk factors for bottle-feeding included living in urban areas and births attended by trained health personnel. Conclusions: Most breastfeeding indicators in Nepal are below the expected levels to achieve a substantial reduction in child mortality. Breastfeeding promotion strategies should specifically target mothers who have more contact with the health care delivery system, while programs targeting the entire community should be continued.

Infant and young child feeding indicators and determinants of poor feeding practices in India : secondary data analysis of National Family Health Survey 2005–06

Background: In India, poor feeding practices in early childhood contribute to the burden of malnutrition and infant and child mortality. Objective. To estimate infant and young child feeding indicators and determinants of selected feeding practices in India. Methods: The sample consisted of 20,108 children aged 0 to 23 months from the National Family Health Survey India 2005–06. Selected indicators were examined against a set of variables using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Only 23.5% of mothers initiated breastfeeding within the first hour after birth, 99.2% had ever breastfed their infant, 89.8% were currently breastfeeding, and 14.8% were currently bottle-feeding. Among infants under 6 months of age, 46.4% were exclusively breastfed, and 56.7% of those aged 6 to 9 months received complementary foods. The risk factors for not exclusively breastfeeding were higher household wealth index quintiles (OR for richest = 2.03), delivery in a health facility (OR = 1.35), and living in the Northern region. Higher numbers of antenatal care visits were associated with increased rates of exclusive breastfeeding (OR for ≥ 7 antenatal visits = 0.58). The rates of timely initiation of breastfeeding were higher among women who were better educated (OR for secondary education or above = 0.79), were working (OR = 0.79), made more antenatal clinic visits (OR for ≥ 7 antenatal visits = 0.48), and were exposed to the radio (OR = 0.76). The rates were lower in women who were delivered by cesarean section (OR = 2.52). The risk factors for bottle-feeding included cesarean delivery (OR = 1.44), higher household wealth index quintiles (OR = 3.06), working by the mother (OR=1.29), higher maternal education level (OR=1.32), urban residence (OR=1.46), and absence of postnatal examination (OR=1.24). The rates of timely complementary feeding were higher for mothers who had more antenatal visits (OR=0.57), and for those who watched television (OR=0.75). Conclusions: Revitalization of the Baby Friendly Hospital Initiative in health facilities is recommended. Targeted interventions may be necessary to improve infant feeding practices in mothers who reside in urban areas, are more educated, and are from wealthier households.

Feasibility of open markets for mainline railways in China

For decades, the development, construction, track ownership and operation of mainline railways in China have been overseen by the state-owned authorities. From mid-90’s, the mainline railway management has undergone revamps to revitalize the intra-modal competitiveness of railway transportation and to steer it toward the direction of modern business management. With the rapid economic growth; the large-scale expansion of the mainline network; and the increasing expectation on service, the mainline railways in China require further restructuring. Inevitably, a sustainable approach to ensure business viability and service quality in the next few decades is an imminent challenge. This paper reviews the operations and management of mainline railway in China and discusses the possibility of introducing open access market. Drawing the experiences on railway open markets outside China, the discussions include the need and feasibility of railway open market in China; and the suitability and limitations of different models. Particular considerations will be given to the unique characteristics of the mainline railways in China, where the developments across neighbouring regions are unbalanced; freight and passenger services are of similar demands; and the high-speed train operations are operated with low-speed ones in mixed traffic.

Applications on fault tree analysis in railway power supply systems

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is presented to model the reliability of a railway traction power system in this paper. First, the construction of fault tree is introduced to integrate components in traction power systems into a fault tree; then the binary decision diagram (BDD) method is used to evaluate fault trees qualitatively and quantitatively. The components contributing to the reliability of overall system are identified with their relative importance through sensitivity analysis. Finally, an AC traction power system is evaluated by the proposed methods.

Thermal analysis and infrared emission spectroscopic study of halloysite-potassium acetate intercalation compound

The thermal decomposition of halloysite-potassium acetate intercalation compound was investigated by thermogravimetric analysis and infrared emission spectroscopy. The X-ray diffraction patterns indicated that intercalation of potassium acetate into halloysite caused an increase of the basal spacing from 1.00 to 1.41 nm. The thermogravimetry results show that the mass losses of intercalation the compound occur in main three main steps, which correspond to (a) the loss of adsorbed water (b) the loss of coordination water and (c) the loss of potassium acetate and dehydroxylation. The temperature of dehydroxylation and dehydration of halloysite is decreased about 100 °C. The infrared emission spectra clearly show the decomposition and dehydroxylation of the halloysite intercalation compound when the temperature is raised. The dehydration of the intercalation compound is followed by the loss of intensity of the stretching vibration bands at region 3600-3200 cm-1. Dehydroxylation is followed by the decrease in intensity in the bands between 3695 and 3620 cm-1. Dehydration was completed by 300 °C and partial dehydroxylation by 350 °C. The inner hydroxyl group remained until around 500 °C.

Performance analysis of IEEE 802.11 DCF based WNCS networks

Wireless network technologies, such as IEEE 802.11 based wireless local area networks (WLANs), have been adopted in wireless networked control systems (WNCS) for real-time applications. Distributed real-time control requires satisfaction of (soft) real-time performance from the underlying networks for delivery of real-time traffic. However, IEEE 802.11 networks are not designed for WNCS applications. They neither inherently provide quality-of-service (QoS) support, nor explicitly consider the characteristics of the real-time traffic on networked control systems (NCS), i.e., periodic round-trip traffic. Therefore, the adoption of 802.11 networks in real-time WNCSs causes challenging problems for network design and performance analysis. Theoretical methodologies are yet to be developed for computing the best achievable WNCS network performance under the constraints of real-time control requirements. Focusing on IEEE 802.11 distributed coordination function (DCF) based WNCSs, this paper analyses several important NCS network performance indices, such as throughput capacity, round trip time and packet loss ratio under the periodic round trip traffic pattern, a unique feature of typical NCSs. Considering periodic round trip traffic, an analytical model based on Markov chain theory is developed for deriving these performance indices under a critical real-time traffic condition, at which the real-time performance constraints are marginally satisfied. Case studies are also carried out to validate the theoretical development.

Spatial analysis of melioidosis distribution in a suburban area

Burkholderia pseudomallei, the causative agent of melioidosis is associated with soil. This study used a geographic information system (GIS) to determine the spatial distribution of clinical cases of melioidosis in the endemic suburban region of Townsville in Australia. A total of 65 cases over the period 1996–2008 were plotted using residential address. Two distinct groupings were found. One was around the base of a hill in the city centre and the other followed the old course of a major waterway in the region. Both groups (accounting for 43 of the 65 cases examined) are in areas expected to have particularly wet topsoils following intense rainfall, due to soil type or landscape position.

Psychometric analysis of the Brisbane Practice Environment Measure (B-PEM)

Purpose: To undertake rigorous psychometric testing of the newly developed contemporary work environment measure (the Brisbane Practice Environment Measure [B-PEM]) using exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. Methods: Content validity of the 33-item measure was established by a panel of experts. Initial testing involved 195 nursing staff using principal component factor analysis with varimax rotation (orthogonal) and Cronbach's alpha coefficients. Confirmatory factor analysis was conducted using data from a further 983 nursing staff. Results: Principal component factor analysis yielded a four-factor solution with eigenvalues greater than 1 that explained 52.53% of the variance. These factors were then verified using confirmatory factor analysis. Goodness-of-fit indices showed an acceptable fit overall with the full model, explaining 21% to 73% of the variance. Deletion of items took place throughout the evolution of the instrument, resulting in a 26-item, four-factor measure called the Brisbane Practice Environment Measure-Tested. Conclusions: The B-PEM has undergone rigorous psychometric testing, providing evidence of internal consistency and goodness-of-fit indices within acceptable ranges. The measure can be utilised as a subscale or total score reflective of a contemporary nursing work environment. Clinical Relevance: An up-to-date instrument to measure practice environment may be useful for nursing leaders to monitor the workplace and to assist in identifying areas for improvement, facilitating greater job satisfaction and retention.