Joseph A. Schumpeter's Theory of Social and Economic Evolution : a Reconstruction and Critique

The book presents a reconstruction, interpretation and critical evaluation of the Schumpeterian theoretical approach to socio-economic change. The analysis focuses on the problem of social evolution, on the interpretation of the innovation process and business cycles and, finally, on Schumpeter s optimistic neglect of ecological-environmental conditions as possible factors influencing social-economic change. The author investigates how the Schumpeterian approach describes the process of social and economic evolution, and how the logic of transformations is described, explained and understood in the Schumpeterian theory. The material of the study includes Schumpeter s works written after 1925, a related part of the commentary literature on these works, and a selected part of the related literature on the innovation process, technological transformations and the problem of long waves. Concerning the period after 1925, the Schumpeterian oeuvre is conceived and analysed as a more or less homogenous corpus of texts. The book is divided into 9 chapters. Chapters 1-2 describe the research problems and methods. Chapter 3 is an effort to provide a systematic reconstruction of Schumpeter's ideas concerning social and economic evolution. Chapters 4 and 5 focus their analysis on the innovation process. In Chapters 6 and 7 Schumpeter's theory of business cycles is examined. Chapter 8 evaluates Schumpeter's views concerning his relative neglect of ecological-environmental conditions as possible factors influencing social-economic change. Finally, chapter 9 draws the main conclusions.

Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

Kulutus, tieto, hallinta : Kulutuksen tilastoinnin muutokset 1900-luvun Suomessa

The aim of the study was to find out how the consumption of the population in Finland became a target of social interest and production of statistical data in the early 20th century, and what efforts have been made to influence consumption with social policy measures at different times. Questions concerning consumption are examined through the practices employed in the compilation of statistics on it. The interpretation framework in the study is Michael Foucault s perspective of modern liberal government. This mode of government is typified by pursuit of efficiency and search of equilibrium between economic government and a government of the processes of life. It shows aspirations towards both integration and individualisation. The government is based on freedom practices. It also implies knowledge-based ways of conceptualising reality. Statistical data are of specific significance in this context. The connection between the government of consumption and the compilation of statistics on it is studied through the theoretical, socio-political and statistical conceptualisation of consumption. The research material consisted of Finnish and international documentation on the compilation of statistics on consumption, publications of social programmes, and reports of studies on consumption. The analysis of the material focused especially on the problematisations related to consumption found in these documents and on changes in them over history. There have been both clearly observable changes and as well as historical stratification and diversity in the rationalities and practices of consumption government during the 20th century. Consumption has been influenced by pluralistic government, based at different times and in varying ways on the logics of solidarity and markets. The difference between these is that in the former risks are prepared for collectively while in the latter risks are individualised. Despite the differences, the characteristic that is common to these logics is certain kind of contractuality. They are both permeated by the household logic which differs from them in that it is based on the normative and ethical demands imposed on an individual. There has been a clear interactive connection between statistical data and consumption government. Statistical practices have followed changes in the way consumption has been conceptualised in society. This has been reflected in the statistical phenomena of interest, concepts, classifications and indicators. New ways of compiling statistics have in their turn shaped perceptions of reality. Statistical data have also facilitated a variety of rational calculations with which the consequences of the population s consumption habits have been evaluated at the levels of economy at large and individuals.

The EU and Institutional Twinning in Morocco - An inquiry into the motives of cooperation through discourse ethics

This study examines Institutional Twinning in Morocco as a case of EU cooperation through the pragmatic, ethical and moral logics of reason in Jürgen Habermas’s discourse ethics. As a former accession tool, Twinning was introduced in 2004 for legal approximation in the context of the European Neighborhood Policy. Twinning is a unique instrument in development cooperation from a legal perspective. With its long historical and cultural ties to Europe, Morocco presents an interesting case study of this new form of cooperation. We will analyse motives behind the Twinning projects on illegal immigration, environment legislation and customs reform. As Twinning is a new policy instrument within the ENP context, there is relatively little preceding research, which, in itself, constitutes a reason to inquire into the subject. While introducing useful categories, the approaches discussing “normative power Europe” do not offer methodological tools precise enough to analyse the motives of the Twinning cooperation from a broad ethical standpoint. Helene Sjursen as well as Esther Barbé and Elisabeth Johansson-Nogués have elaborated on Jürgen Habermas’ discourse ethics in determining the extent of altruism in the ENP in general. Situating the analysis in the process-oriented framework of Critical Theory, discourse ethics provides the methodological framework for our research. The case studies reveal that the context in which they operate affects the pragmatic, ethical and moral aspirations of the actors. The utilitarian notion of profit maximization is quite pronounced both in terms of the number of Twinning projects in the economic sphere and the pragmatic logics of reason instrumental to security and trade-related issues. The historical background as well internal processes, however, contribute to defining areas of mutual interest to the actors as well as the motives Morocco and the EU sometimes described as the external projection of internal values. Through its different aspects, Twinning cooperation portrays the functioning of the pragmatic, ethical and moral logics of reason in international relations.

Key Factors Influencing Economic Relationships and Communication in Finnish Food Chains

The aim of this report is to discuss the role of the relationship type and communication in two Finnish food chains, namely the pig meat-to-sausage (pig meat chain) and the cereal-to-rye bread (rye chain) chains. Furthermore, the objective is to examine those factors influencing the choice of a relationship type and the sustainability of a business relationship. Altogether 1808 questionnaires were sent to producers, processors and retailers operating in these two chains of which 224 usable questionnaires were returned (the response rate being 12.4%). The great majority of the respondents (98.7%) were small businesses employing less than 50 people. Almost 70 per cent of the respondents were farmers. In both chains, formal contracts were stated to be the most important relationship type used with business partners. Although for many businesses written contracts are a common business practice, the essential role of the contracts was the security they provide regarding the demand/supply and quality issues. Relative to the choice of the relationship types, the main difference between the two chains emerged especially with the prevalence of spot markets and financial participation arrangements. The usage of spot markets was significantly more common in the rye chain when compared to the pig meat chain, while, on the other hand, financial participation arrangements were much more common among the businesses in the pig meat chain than in the rye chain. Furthermore, the analysis showed that most of the businesses in the pig meat chain claimed not to be free to choose the relationship type they use. Especially membership in a co-operative and practices of a business partner were mentioned as the reasons limiting this freedom of choice. The main business relations in both chains were described as having a long-term orientation and being based on formal written contracts. Typical for the main business relationships was also that they are not based on the existence of the key persons only; the relationship would remain even if the key people left the business. The quality of these relationships was satisfactory in both chains and across all the stakeholder groups, though the downstream processors and the retailers had a slightly more positive view on their main business partners than the farmers and the upstream processors. The businesses operating in the pig meat chain seemed also to be more dependent on their main business relations when compared to the businesses in the rye chain. Although the communication means were rather similar in both chains (the phone being the most important), there was some variation between the chains concerning the communication frequency necessary to maintain the relationship with the main business partner. In short, the businesses in the pig meat chain seemed to appreciate more frequent communication with their main business partners when compared to the businesses in the rye chain. Personal meetings with the main business partners were quite rare in both chains. All the respondent groups were, however, fairly satisfied with the communication frequency and information quality between them and the main business partner. The business cultures could be argued to be rather hegemonic among the businesses both in the pig meat and rye chains. Avoidance of uncertainty, appreciation of long-term orientation and independence were considered important factors in the business cultures. Furthermore, trust, commitment and satisfaction in business partners were thought to be essential elements of business operations in all the respondent groups. In order to investigate which factors have an effect on the choice of a relationship type, several hypotheses were tested by using binary and multinomial logit analyses. According to these analyses it could be argued that avoidance of uncertainty and risk has a certain effect on the relationship type chosen, i.e. the willingness to avoid uncertainty increases the probability to choose stable relationships, like repeated market transactions and formal written contracts, but not necessary those, which require high financial commitment (like financial participation arrangements). The probability of engaging in financial participation arrangements seemed to increase with long-term orientation. The hypotheses concerning the sustainability of the economic relations were tested by using structural equation model (SEM). In the model, five variables were found to have a positive and statistically significant impact on the sustainable economic relationship construct. Ordered relative to their importance, those factors are: (i) communication quality, (ii) personal bonds, (iii) equal power distribution, (iv) local embeddedness and (v) competition.

Prosopis, an Alien among the Sacred Trees of South India

The problematic of invasive species in an alien environment has aroused the attention of scientists all over the world for quite some time. One of the exotic tree species that has provoked special attention in the tropical drylands is Prosopis juliflora. Originating in South America, prosopis (hereafter referred to as prosopis) has been introduced in the hot and semi-arid zones of the world particularly to provide fuelwood, to stabilize sand dunes and to combat desertification. The tree has become an essential source for fuelwood and a provider of several other products and services in areas where it has become established. However, despite the numerous benefits the tree provides to rural people, in several regions prosopis has become a noxious weed with a negative impact on the environment and to the economy of farmers and landowners. In India, prosopis was introduced in Andhra Pradesh in 1877. The tree was then proclaimed as the precious child of the plant world by scientists and local people alike. The purpose of this study was to investigate the overall impact of prosopis on local rural livelihoods in the drylands of South India. Of particular interest was the examination of the different usages of the tree, especially as fuelwood, and people s perceptions of it. Furthermore, the study examined the negative impacts of the uncontrolled invasion of prosopis on croplands, and its occupation of the banks of irrigation canals and other water sources. As another central theme, this study analysed the Hindu classification system for nature and for trees in particular. In India, several tree species are regarded as sacred. This study examined the position of the exotic prosopis among sacred trees, such as the bodhi, banyan and neem trees. The principle method for collecting the field data was by using individual and thematic group interviews. These interviews were semi-structured with open ended questions. Moreover, unstructured interviews as well as general observations provided complementary information. The data were gathered during two fieldwork periods in the states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, in South India. The results confirmed that prosopis both provides benefits and causes hazards to different stakeholders. Farmers and agriculturalists suffer economic losses in areas where prosopis has invaded crop fields and competes with other plants for water and nutrients. On the other hand, for a significant number of poor rural people, prosopis has become an important source of livelihood benefits. This tree, which grows on government wastelands, is commonly a free resource for all and has thus become a major local source of fuelwood. It also provides several other goods and services and cash income that contributes to improve livelihoods in rural communities. Prosopis ranked lowest in the tree classificatioin system of the Hindus of South India. Although it is appreciated for many benefits it provides for poor people, it has remained an outsider compared with the indigenous tree species. On the other hand, the most sacred trees, such as the bodhi or the banyan, are completely excluded from extraction and it is seen as a sacrilege to even cut branches from any of these trees. An unexpected finding was that, in a few cases, prosopis had also been elevated to the status of a sacred tree. Goods and services from prosopis are not utilized in the most beneficial way. Silvicultural management practices are suggested that would provide additional income and employment opportunities. Interventions are recommended to control further invasion of the tree that might cause serious negative effects in the future. For Hindus, the sacred always ranks highest, even above economic gain. The conservation of sacred groves and sacred trees is a tradition that has its roots in ancient history. These socio-religious practices need to be respected and continued. Successful management of tree and forest resources depends on the willingness of the local people to manage their natural resources, and this willingness exists and has always existed in South India. Keywords: South India, drylands, livelihood, fuelwood, invasive, resource, silviculture.

A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

Somali State Failure: Players, Incentives and Institutions

In Somalia the central government collapsed in 1991 and since then state failure became a widespread phenomenon and one of the greatest political and humanitarian problems facing the world in this century. Thus, the main objective of this research is to answer the following question: What went wrong? Most of the existing literature on the political economy of conflict starts from the assumption that state in Africa is predatory by nature. Unlike these studies, the present research, although it uses predation theory, starts from the social contract approach of state definition. Therefore, rather than contemplating actions and policies of the rulers alone, this approach allows us to deliberately bring the role of the society – as citizens – and other players into the analyses. In Chapter 1, after introducing the study, a simple principal-agent model will be developed to check the logical consistence of the argument and to make the identification of causal mechanism easier. I also identify three main actors in the process of state failure in Somalia: the Somali state, Somali society and the superpowers. In Chapter 2, so as to understand the incentives, preferences and constraints of each player in the state failure game, I in some depth analyse the evolution and structure of three central informal institutions: identity based patronage system of leadership, political tribalism, and the Cold War. These three institutions are considered as the rules of the game in the Somali state failure. Chapter 3 summarises the successive civilian governments’ achievements and failures (1960-69) concerning the main national goals, national unification and socio-economic development. Chapter 4 shows that the military regime, although it assumed power through extralegal means, served to some extent the developmental interest of the citizens in the first five years of its rule. Chapter 5 shows the process, and the factors involved, of the military regime’s self-transformation from being an agent for the developmental interests of the society to a predatory state that not only undermines the interests of the society but that also destroys the state itself. Chapter 6 addresses the process of disintegration of the post-colonial state of Somalia. The chapter shows how the regime’s merciless reactions to political ventures by power-seeking opposition leaders shattered the entire country and wrecked the state institutions. Chapter 7 concludes the study by summarising the main findings: due to the incentive structures generated by the informal institutions, the formal state institutions fell apart.

Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Inference on Cointegration in Vector Autoregressive Models (summary section only)

In the thesis we consider inference for cointegration in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The thesis consists of an introduction and four papers. The first paper proposes a new test for cointegration in VAR models that is directly based on the eigenvalues of the least squares (LS) estimate of the autoregressive matrix. In the second paper we compare a small sample correction for the likelihood ratio (LR) test of cointegrating rank and the bootstrap. The simulation experiments show that the bootstrap works very well in practice and dominates the correction factor. The tests are applied to international stock prices data, and the .nite sample performance of the tests are investigated by simulating the data. The third paper studies the demand for money in Sweden 1970—2000 using the I(2) model. In the fourth paper we re-examine the evidence of cointegration between international stock prices. The paper shows that some of the previous empirical results can be explained by the small-sample bias and size distortion of Johansen’s LR tests for cointegration. In all papers we work with two data sets. The first data set is a Swedish money demand data set with observations on the money stock, the consumer price index, gross domestic product (GDP), the short-term interest rate and the long-term interest rate. The data are quarterly and the sample period is 1970(1)—2000(1). The second data set consists of month-end stock market index observations for Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1980(1) to 1997(2). Both data sets are typical of the sample sizes encountered in economic data, and the applications illustrate the usefulness of the models and tests discussed in the thesis.

Network Knowledge versus Cluster Knowledge- The Gordian Knot of Knowledge Transfer Concepts

Both management scholars and economic geographers have studied knowledge and argued that the ability to transfer knowledge is critical to competitive success. Networks and other forms for cooperation are often the context when analyzing knowledge transfer within management research, while economic geographers focus on the role of the cluster for knowledge transfer and creation. With the common interest in knowledge transfer, few attempts to interdisciplinary research have been made. The aim of this paper is to outline the knowledge transfer concepts in the two strands of literature of management and economic geography (EG). The paper takes an analytical approach to review the existing contributions and seek to identify the benefits of further interaction between the disciplines. Furthermore, it offers an interpretation of the concepts of cluster and network, and suggests a clearer distinction between their respective definitions. The paper posits that studies of internal networks transcending national borders and clusters are not necessarily mutually exclusive when it comes to transfer of knowledge and the learning process of the firm. Our conclusion is that researchers in general seem to increasingly acknowledge the importance of studying both the effect of and the need for geographical proximity and external networks for the knowledge transfer process, but that there exists equivocalness in defining clusters and networks.