Monnaie, citoyenneté et globalisation financière. Les citoyens entre protection sociale et promesses de la capitalisation boursière

La monnaie a été étudiée par des économistes hétérodoxes, des sociologues et des historiens qui ont souligné ses rapports à l'ordre collectif, mais elle n'est que rarement analysée sous l'angle de la citoyenneté. Notre thèse propose une réflexion théorique sur quatre types de fonctions (politique, symbolique, socioéconomique et psychoaffective) qui permettent à la monnaie de jouer un rôle de médiation de la citoyenneté. A partir d'une perspective qui combine les apports de l'économie politique internationale et de l'école de la régulation, nous montrons que cette médiation ne mobilise pas seulement des mécanismes sociopolitiques nationaux, mais aussi des mécanismes internationaux qui rétroagissent sur la sphère domestique des États et affectent leur capacité à définir leur régime de citoyenneté. Cette relation est analysée dans le contexte de l'institutionnalisation du système monétaire international de Bretton Woods (1944) et du développement de la globalisation financière depuis les années 1970. Si la monnaie a été mise au service d'un principe de protection des droits sociaux des citoyens contre les pressions financières extérieures après la Seconde guerre mondiale, elle contribue aujourd'hui à l'ouverture de la sphère domestique des Etats aux flux de capitaux transnationaux et à la création d'un ordre politique et juridique favorable aux droits des investisseurs. Cette dynamique est impulsée par l'essor de nouveaux intermédiaires financiers (notamment les agences de notation et les investisseurs institutionnels) et l'émergence concomitante d'une nouvelle forme d'Etat légitimée à partir d'un discours politique néolibéral insistant sur la quête de compétitivité, la réduction de la protection sociale et la responsabilisation individuelle. Elle se traduit par la privatisation des régimes de retraite et le développement des politiques d'éducation financière qui incitent les citoyens à se comporter en « preneurs de risques » actifs et responsables, assurant eux-mêmes leur sécurité économique à travers le placement de leur épargne retraite sur les marchés financiers. Nous soulignons toutefois les difficultés institutionnelles, cognitives et socioéconomiques qui rendent cette transformation de la citoyenneté contradictoire et problématique. Money has been studied by heterodox economists, sociologists and historians who stressed its relationship to collective order. However, it has hardly been analysed from the viewpoint of its relationship to citizenship. We propose a theoretical account of four types of functions (political, symbolic, socioeconomic and psychoaffective) enabling money to operate as a mediation of citizenship. From a perspective that combines the contributions of international political economy and the regulation school, we show that this mediation mobilises not only national sociopolitical mechanisms, but also international mechanisms which feed back on the domestic sphere of states and affect their capacity to define their regime of citizenship. This relationship is analysed in the context of the institutionalisation of the international monetary system of Bretton Woods (1944) and the development of financial globalization since the 1970s. If money has served to protect the social rights of citizens against external financial pressures after the Second World War, today it contributes to the opening of the domestic sphere of states to transnational capital flows and to the creation of a political and legal order favorable to the rights of investors. This dynamic is driven by the rise of new financial intermediaries (in particular rating agencies and institutional investisors) and the simultaneous emergence of a new form of state legitimized from a neoliberal political discourse emphasizing the quest for competitiveness, reduced social protection and individual responsibilization. It results in the privatization of pension systems and the development of policies of financial education that encourage citizens to behave as active and responsible « risk takers », ensuring their own economic security through the investment of their savings retirement on financial markets. However, we emphasize the institutional, cognitive and socioeconomic difficulties that make this transformation of citizenship contradictory and problematic. - Money has been studied by heterodox economists, sociologists and historians who stressed its relationship to collective order. However, it has hardly been analysed from the viewpoint of its relationship to citizenship. We propose a theoretical account of four types of functions (political, symbolic, socioeconomic and psychoaffective) enabling money to operate as a mediation of citizenship. From a perspective that combines the contributions of international political economy and the regulation school, we show that this mediation mobilises not only national sociopolitical mechanisms, but also international mechanisms which feed back on the domestic sphere of states and affect their capacity to define their regime of citizenship. This relationship is analysed in the context of the institutionalisation of the international monetary system of Bretton Woods (1944) and the development of financial globalization since the 1970s. If money has served to protect the social rights of citizens against external financial pressures after the Second World War, today it contributes to the opening of the domestic sphere of states to transnational capital flows and to the creation of a political and legal order favorable to the rights of investors. This dynamic is driven by the rise of new financial intermediaries (in particular rating agencies and institutional investisors) and the simultaneous emergence of a new form of state legitimized from a neoliberal political discourse emphasizing the quest for competitiveness, reduced social protection and individual responsibilization. It results in the privatization of pension systems and the development of policies of financial education that encourage citizens to behave as active and responsible « risk takers », ensuring their own economic security through the investment of their savings retirement on financial markets. However, we emphasize the institutional, cognitive and socioeconomic difficulties that make this transformation of citizenship problematic.

Iowa Workforce Development Annual Report Fiscal Year 2013

The past fiscal year brought some improvements in the Iowa economy that should position the state for stronger hiring in the year ahead. The housing market is on solid footing, and hiring is broader in scope, including a number of the service-providing industries that had been on hold for some time. State and local government fiscal conditions have also stabilized due to a rise in tax revenues. This means that government cutbacks will be less of a drag on overall job growth. During FY 2013, Iowa’s non-farm jobs advanced by 19,200 (+1.3 percent) compared to 23,000 (+1.6 percent) for the prior fiscal year. Although manufacturing continued to post the largest over the year job gain at close to 5,600, job growth shifted away from manufacturing to the service providing industries by mid-year. Annual job gains of 2,000 or more were reflected in professional and business services, education and health, leisure and hospitality, retail trade and financial activities. Statewide non-farm employment averaged 1,517,700 in FY 2013, the highest level achieved since the record of 1,524,800 in FY 2008.

Fruit production in Chile: bright past, uncertain future

In 2007 (the last agricultural census), Chile had 308, 445 ha of fruit orchards: an increase of almost 32% from the previous census (1997). The most important species were table grapes (20%), avocados (13%) and apples (12%). Some 22% of the fruit crops growing area corresponded to juvenile orchards; within the species with higher proportion of juvenile orchards were prunes (42%) and blueberries (56%). Most orchards are located between latitude 27º18` S (Copiapó) and 40º36´S (Puerto Varas). The industry is driven by the export component which accounts for more than 50% of the fruits produced. In the crop season 2009-2010, approximately 254 million boxes (around 2.5 million tons) were exported, representing over US$ 3.5 million. Processed and fresh fruits represented 8.2 and 26.7% of the total forest and agricultural Chilean exports in 2008, respectively. The main markets for this fruits were USA/Canada (42%) and Europe (32%). The fruit grower receives, on average, 12-16% of the total price of the fruit in its final destination. Each year the fruit industry employs 450.000 people directly, of which 1/3 are permanent. Even though the fruit industry employs the highest proportion of the agricultural labor and the growing area has increased in the last 20 years, the proportion of agricultural employment has decreased from 19.5% in 1989 to 10.8% in 2008. It might also be noted that Chile invests only 0.7% of the GDP in research. In the last 40 years, the fruit industry has been a motor for the Chilean economic development, but the lower rates of currency exchange, the rising costs of energy (oil, electricity), and the increasing scarcity of hand labor have drastically reduced the profitability and are putting at risk the viability of a large proportion of the fruit orchards in Chile. It is estimated that this season around 65% of the orchards will have a negative economic balance in their operations. Higher investment in research, improvements in fruit quality and various orchard management practices, as well as higher financial support from the Government are needed for the long term viability of the fruit industry in Chile.

Profit at Risk as a Risk Management Tool in Deregulated Energy Markets

Euroopan energiamarkkinat ovat olleet viimeisen kymmenen vuoden aikana suurten muutosten alla. Markkinoiden kehitys on ollut huomattavaa myös Iso-Britanniassa, jossa sähkö- ja kaasumarkkinat ovat olleet avoinna kilpailulle jo muutamia vuosia. Ennen markkinoiden avautumista energiyhtiöt pystyivät siirtämään kaikki riskit suoraan asiakkaan kannettaviksi. Markkinoiden avautumisen myötä lisääntynyt kilpailu on kuitenkin pakottanut energiayhtiöitä ajanmukaistamaan näkemyksiään riskeistä. Riskitekijät, joista ei aiemmin tarvinnut välittää, on nyt pystyttävä tunnistamaan ja hallitsemaan. Tämä työ keskittyy hinta- ja volyymiriskien hallintaan. Rahoitusmarkkinoilla pitkään käytettyjä riskienhallintatyökaluja on otettu käyttöön myös energiamarkkinoilla. Energiamarkkinoiden piirteet poikkeavat kuitenkin rahoitusmarkkinoista, eikä näitä työkaluja voida ottaa käyttöön muutoksitta. Silti, jopa muutosten jälkeen rahoitusmarkkinoiden riskienhallitavälineet aliarvioivat energiamarkkinoiden hinta- ja volyymiriskejä. Tässä yhteydessä työssä esitetään Profit at Risk, PaR. PaR on skenaariopohjainen riskienhallinnan työkalu, joka on kehitetty erityisesti energiamarkkinoille ja täten huomioi niiden erikoispiirteet. Työn rungon muodostavat energiamarkkinoiden käyttäytyminen, hinta- ja volyymiriskitekijät sekä pohdinta miten hinta- ja volyymiriskeiltä voidaan suojautua ja miten niitä voidaan hallita. PaR-metodologiaa verrataan perinteisiin riskienhallintamenetelmiin ja työn tavoitteena on tuoda esiin ne tekijät, joiden ansiosta PaR on sopivampi työkalu energiamarkkinoiden riskienhallintaan kuin perinteiset menetelmät. Käytännön esimerkkinä työssä toimii Fortum Energy plus’n PaR –malli. Koska PaR on kehitetty erityisesti energiamarkkinoille, se huomioi täysin markkinoiden aiheuttamat hinta- ja volyymiriskit. Käytännön esimerkki kuitenkin osoittaa, että PaR menetelmästä ei ole riskienhallinnallista hyötyä ellei työkalun käyttäjällä ole täydellistä tietämystä niin energiamarkkinoista kuin markkinoiden muutoksiin vaikuttavien tekijöiden käyttäytymisestä.

Financial integration, capital misallocation and global imbalances

This paper shows that in a stylized model with two countries, characterized by different levels of financial development, the following facts can be replicated: 1) persistent current account surpluses and 2) high TFP growth in China. Under autarky, entrepreneurs in the emerging country overinvest in short-term projects and underinvest in long-term projects because short-term assets help them secure long-term investments in the presence of credit constraints. This creates an aggregate misallocation of capital. When financial markets integrate, entrepreneurs with long-term projects can have access to cheaper short-term assets abroad, which leaves them more resources to invest in their projects. This both reduces capital misallocations and generates capital outflows.

The farthest need the best. Human capital composition and development-specific economic growth

We provide robust and compelling evidence of the marked impact of tertiary education on the economic growth of less developed countries and of its the relatively smaller impact on the growth of developed ones. Our results argue in favor of the accumulation of high skill levels especially in technologically under-developed countries and, contrary to common wisdom, independently of the fact that these economies might initially produce lower-technology goods or perform technology imitation. Our results are robust to the different measures used in proxying human capital and to the adjustments made for cross-country differences in the quality of education. Country-specific institutional quality, as well as other indicators including legal origin, religious fractionalization and openness to trade have been used to control for the robustness of the results. These factors are also shown to speed up technology convergence thereby confirming previous empirical studies. Our estimates tackle problems of endogeneity by adopting a variety of techniques, including instrumental variables -for both panel and cross-section analyses- and the two-step efficient dynamics system GMM.

Essays on pricing of risk and international linkage of Russian stock market

Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

Winner-Loser Performance and Macroeconomic Effects during three last Economic Crises in Finnish Stock Market

The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate winner-loser performance when financial markets are facing crisis. This is examined through the idea that does the prior loser portfolios outperform the prior winner portfolios during the three major crises: The depression of the 1990s, the IT-Bubble and the Subprime -crisis. Firstly, the winner and loser portfolios superiority is counted by using the cumulative excess returns from the examination period. The portfolios were formed by counting the excess returns and locating them in to the order of superiority. The excess returns are counted by using one year pre-data before the actual examination period. The results of this part did not support the results of De Bondt & Thaler’s (1985) paper. Secondly, it is investigated how the Finnish and the US macroeconomic factors are seen to be affecting the stock market valuation in Finnish Stock Markets during economic crises. This is done to explain better the changes in the successes of the winner-loser performance. The crises included different amount of selected macro factors. Two latest crises involved as well few selected US macro factors. Exclusively the IT-Bubble -crisis had the most statistically significant results with the US factors. Two other crises did not receive statistically significant results. An extra research was produced to study do the US macro factors impact more significantly on Finnish stock exchange after lags. The selected lags were three, six, nine and twelve months. Three and six month lagged US macro factors during the IT-Bubble -crisis improved the results. The extra research did not improve the results of the Subprime -crisis.

Model for interevent times with long tails and multifractality in human communications: An application to financial trading

Social, technological, and economic time series are divided by events which are usually assumed to be random, albeit with some hierarchical structure. It is well known that the interevent statistics observed in these contexts differs from the Poissonian profile by being long-tailed distributed with resting and active periods interwoven. Understanding mechanisms generating consistent statistics has therefore become a central issue. The approach we present is taken from the continuous-time random-walk formalism and represents an analytical alternative to models of nontrivial priority that have been recently proposed. Our analysis also goes one step further by looking at the multifractal structure of the interevent times of human decisions. We here analyze the intertransaction time intervals of several financial markets. We observe that empirical data describe a subtle multifractal behavior. Our model explains this structure by taking the pausing-time density in the form of a superstatistics where the integral kernel quantifies the heterogeneous nature of the executed tasks. A stretched exponential kernel provides a multifractal profile valid for a certain limited range. A suggested heuristic analytical profile is capable of covering a broader region.

Suomen Pankin julkaisut

Kokoelmaan kuuluu Suomen Pankin julkaisemaa aineistoa 1870-luvulta lähtien. Kokoelma sisältää vuosikertomuksia, vuosikirjoja, tieteellisiä julkaisuja kuten keskustelualoitteita, työpapereita ja muita tutkimusjulkaisuja, Suomen Pankin ennusteita, selvityksiä, raportteja ja lehtiä. Kokoelmaan kuuluu lisäksi taloudellista kehitystä kuvaavia pitkiä tilastosarjoja, joista osa on erillisiä julkaisuja ja osa on ilmestynyt Suomen Pankin muissa julkaisuissa, kuten vuosikirjoissa tai lehdissä. Tilastoihin kuuluvat mm. maksutase-, valuuttakurssi-, rahoitusmarkkina-, arvopaperi- ja korkotilastot sekä hintatasoa kuvaavat ja rahan määrän kehitystä seuraavat tilastot. Kokoelmaan kuuluu myös Suomen Pankista tehdyt historiikit, joista vanhin on vuodelta 1914. Suomen Pankin julkaisuja löytyy sekä painettuna että elektronisena. Lähes kaikki 1990-luvun puolivälin jälkeen ilmestyneet julkaisut on saatavilla elektronisena Suomen Pankin verkkosivujen kautta. Vanhemmat julkaisut on osittain digitoitu, ja tällä hetkellä elektronisena on saatavilla uudempien julkaisujen lisäksi mm. Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteet, Bank of Finland (Montly) Bulletin ja Suomen Pankin vuosikirjat. Kokoelmassa on yhteensä n. 4000 nimekettä, ja kokoelma karttuu jatkuvasti. Kokoelman muodostavista julkaisuista n. 13 % on ilmestynyt ennen 1950 lukua ja n. 36 % vuosina 1950–1989. Yli 50 % julkaisuista on 1990- ja 2000-luvuilta. Aineisto on valtaosin suomen- ja englanninkielistä, mutta kokoelmaan kuuluu myös ruotsinkielisiä julkaisuja. Kokoelman painettua osaa säilytetään Suomen Pankin kirjaston tiloissa avokokoelmassa. Kirjasto on avoinna ulkoisille asiakkaille, ja Suomen Pankin julkaisut ovat lainattavissa joitakin poikkeuksia, kuten käsikirjoja, lukuun ottamatta. Julkaisuista voi ottaa kopioita maksutta.

Rahoitusvälineiden markkinat -direktiivin (MiFID) vaikutukset sijoituspalvelun tarjoajan velvollisuuksiin ja sijoittajansuojaan

Tutkielmassa selvitetään rahoitusvälineiden markkinat -direktiivin vaikutuksia sijoituspalvelun tarjoajan velvollisuuksiin ja sijoittajansuojaan oikeusdogmaattisen metodin avulla. Tutkielmassa pyritään vastaamaan seuraaviin kysymyksiin: 1) Millainen merkitys MIFID-direktiivillä on Euroopan unionin rahoitusmarkkinoiden integraatiolle? 2) Mitä velvollisuuksia sijoituspalvelun tarjoajalla on MiFID-direktiivin implementoinnin jälkeen? 3) Millainen sijoittajansuoja on MiFID-direktiivin seurauksena? 4) Mitä mahdollisia puutteita sijoittajansuojassa on, ja miten säädäntöä tulisi kehittää? MiFID-direktiivi edistää merkittävästi EU:n rahoitusmarkkinoiden integrointia. MiFID helpottaa pääomien ja sijoituspalvelujen liikkuvuutta jäsenvaltioiden rajojen yli. Sijoituspalvelun tarjoajan menettelytapavelvollisuudet ovat lisääntyneet, minkä johdosta sijoittajansuoja on parantunut. Etenkin direktiivin selonotto- ja tiedonantovelvollisuus aiheuttavat transaktiokustannuksia, mutta vähentävät toisaalta palvelun tarjoajan ja asiakkaan välistä neoklassista oikeustaloustieteellistä informaation epäsymmetriaa. Selonottovelvollisuuden sääntelyä EU:ssa kehitettäessä tulee kansallisia menettelytapoja yhdenmukaistaa. Kun palvelun tarjoajat täyttävät tiedonantovelvollisuuttaan, ei-ammattimaiset asiakkaat saattavat joutua informaatiotulvaan, josta jotkut eivät kykene erottamaan merkityksellisiä tietoja. Menettelytapojen nykyinen paras toteutus -velvollisuus on tulkinnanvarainen. Sijoitusneuvontaa koskee päämies–agentti-teorian mukainen valvontaongelma, minkä takia palvelun tarjoajan ja sijoittajan intressit tulisi säädännön avulla saada nykyistä yhteneväisemmiksi. MiFIDin säädökset eivät välttämättä johda ei-ammattimaisten asiakkaiden saaman informaation optimaaliseen allokointiin eivätkä informaatiokustannusten tehokkaaseen kohdistumiseen. Monimutkaisten rahoitusinstrumenttien käsitettä tulisi tarkentaa ja kyseisiä tuotteita tarjota ainoastaan ammattimaisille asiakkaille ja hyväksyttäville vastapuolille. Sijoittajansuojaa lisäisi heterogeenisen ei-ammattimaisten asiakkaiden ryhmän jako informaatiotarpeeseen perustuviin alaryhmiin, jotta eri asiakasryhmille voitaisiin tarjota heidän tarvitsemansa palvelu nykyistäkin kohdentuvammin. Tulisi selvittää, pitäisikö varoitus pääoman menettämisestä merkitä niihin sijoitustuotteisiin, joita riski koskee. Yhteinen eurooppalainen valvontaorganisaatio ilmeisesti voimistaisi rahoitusmarkkinoiden transparenssia, toimivuutta ja sijoittajansuojaa.

Eurokriisi ja euroalueen rakenteelliset ongelmat

Maailmanlaajuinen finanssikriisi on vaikuttanut merkittävällä tavalla euroalueen toimintaan ja tuonut esiin ongelmia sen rakenteessa. Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tunnistaa eurokriisiin johtaneita tekijöitä ja euroalueen keskeisiä rakenteellisia ongelmia. Teoriakehys muodostui optimaalisen valuutta-alueen teoriasta, jota täydennettiin velkaantumiseen, pankkikriiseihin ja vaihtotaseiden epätasapainotiloihin liittyvällä teorialla. Tutkimuksessa hyödynnettiin laaja-alaisesti olemassa olevaa teoreettista ja empiiristä kirjallisuutta sekä eri tietokannoista saatavaa makrodataa. Tulokset kertovat rahoitusmarkkinoiden keskeisestä roolista epätasapainotilojen kehittymisessä sekä rahaunionin puutteellisista mukautumismekanismeista. Institutionaalisen rakenteen osalta euroalueen keskeisiä ongelmia ovat olleet tehokkaan pankkivalvonnan puute sekä viime hetken lainoittajan puuttuminen valtionvelkakirjamarkkinoilla.

Return and Volatility spillovers among stock and Foreign Exchange Markets: Empirical Evidence from selected African Markets

Return and volatility dynamics in financial markets across the world have recently become important for the purpose of asset pricing, portfolio allocation and risk management. However, volatility, which come about as a result of the actions of market participants can help adapt to different situations and perform when it really matters. With recent development and liberalization among financial markets in emerging and frontier markets, the need for how the equity and foreign exchange markets interact and the extent to which return and volatility spillover are spread across countries is of importance to investors and policy makers at large. Financial markets in Africa have received attention leading to investors diversifying into them in times of crisis and contagion effects in developed countries. Regardless of the benefits these markets may offer, investors must be wary of issues such as thin trading, volatility that exists in the equity and currency markets and its related fluctuations. The study employs a VAR-GARCH BEKK model to study the return and volatility dynamics between the stock and foreign exchange sectors and among the equity markets of Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia. The main findings suggest a higher dependence of own return in the stock markets and a one way return spillover from the currencies to the equity markets except for South Africa which has a weaker interrelation among the two markets. There is a relatively limited integration among the equity markets. Return and volatility spillover is mostly uni-directional except for a bi-directional relationship between the equity markets of Egypt and Tunisia. The study implication still proves a benefit for portfolio managers diversifying in these African equity markets, since they are independent of each other and may not be highly affected by the influx of negative news from elsewhere. However, there is the need to be wary of return and volatility spillover between the equity and currency markets, hence devising better hedging strategies to curb them.

POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT AND BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT IN THE ARCTIC Strategic opportunities and threats for Finnish companies

The Arctic environment is changing constantly. There are several factors that constitute to the rate and immensity of the development. The region differs from the surrounding markets that most of the countries in the region have been used to. Therefore the purpose of the study was to understand how the political environment affects Finnish companies’ strategies and business operations. The issues analyzed were the political environment in the region, the business environment and economic development, and the opportunities and threats that the Finnish companies have in Arctic. The main theories were found from strategic management and market analysis tools. The different theories and definitions were gone through in order to understand the context of the study. This is a qualitative study that uses content analysis as its main method of analyzing the data. Therefore the data analyzed was gathered from already existing material and it was analyzed until the saturation point was found. This was done in order to minimize the risks related to using secondary data. The data collected was then categorized into themes accordingly. First the general political environment in the Arctic was studied, especially the Arctic Council and its work as the main political entity. From there the focus shifted to the business environment and the general opportunities and threats that are found from Arctic economic development. China offered another point of view to this as it represented a non-Arctic state with a keen interest on the region. Lastly the two previous objectives were combined and looked through from a Finnish perspective. Finnish companies have a great starting point to Arctic business and the operational business environment gives them the framework with which they have to operate in. As a conclusion it can be said that there are three main factors leading the Arctic economic development; the climate change, the development of technology, and the political environment. These set the framework with which the companies operating in the region must comply with. The industry that is likely to lead the development is the marine industry. Furthermore it became evident that the Finnish companies operating in the Arctic face many opportunities as well as threats which can be utilized, taken advantage of or controlled through effective strategic management. The key characteristics needed in the region are openness and understanding of the challenging environment and the ability to face and manage the arising challenges.

Finance and Growth : Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries, 1960-1990

This paper examines the empirical relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth using cross-country and panel data regressions for 69 developing countries for the 1960-1990 period. The main results are : (i) financial development is a significant determinant of economic growth, as it has been shown in cross-sectional regressions; (ii) financial markets cease to exert any effect on real activity when the temporal dimension is introduced in the regressions. The paradox may be explained, in the case of developing countries, by the lack of an entrepreneurial private sector capable to transform the available funds into profitable projects; (iii) the effect of financial development on economic growth is channeled mainly through an increase in investment efficiency.