Stress testing and risk evaluation of new capacity payment algorithm proposed by Market Council

In the Russian Wholesale Market, electricity and capacity are traded separately. Capacity is a special good, the sale of which obliges suppliers to keep their generating equipment ready to produce the quantity of electricity indicated by the System Operator. The purpose of the formation of capacity trading was the maintenance of reliable and uninterrupted delivery of electricity in the wholesale market. The price of capacity reflects constant investments in construction, modernization and maintenance of power plants. So, the capacity sale creates favorable conditions to attract investments in the energy sector because it guarantees the investor that his investments will be returned.

Automated, adaptive methods for forest inventory

Forest inventories are used to estimate forest characteristics and the condition of forest for many different applications: operational tree logging for forest industry, forest health state estimation, carbon balance estimation, land-cover and land use analysis in order to avoid forest degradation etc. Recent inventory methods are strongly based on remote sensing data combined with field sample measurements, which are used to define estimates covering the whole area of interest. Remote sensing data from satellites, aerial photographs or aerial laser scannings are used, depending on the scale of inventory. To be applicable in operational use, forest inventory methods need to be easily adjusted to local conditions of the study area at hand. All the data handling and parameter tuning should be objective and automated as much as possible. The methods also need to be robust when applied to different forest types. Since there generally are no extensive direct physical models connecting the remote sensing data from different sources to the forest parameters that are estimated, mathematical estimation models are of "black-box" type, connecting the independent auxiliary data to dependent response data with linear or nonlinear arbitrary models. To avoid redundant complexity and over-fitting of the model, which is based on up to hundreds of possibly collinear variables extracted from the auxiliary data, variable selection is needed. To connect the auxiliary data to the inventory parameters that are estimated, field work must be performed. In larger study areas with dense forests, field work is expensive, and should therefore be minimized. To get cost-efficient inventories, field work could partly be replaced with information from formerly measured sites, databases. The work in this thesis is devoted to the development of automated, adaptive computation methods for aerial forest inventory. The mathematical model parameter definition steps are automated, and the cost-efficiency is improved by setting up a procedure that utilizes databases in the estimation of new area characteristics.

Cognitive Functions After Traumatic Brain Injury. A 30-year Follow-up Study

Many cognitive deficits after TBI (traumatic brain injury) are well known, such as memory and concentration problems, as well as reduced information-processing speed. What happens to patients and cognitive functioning after immediate recovery is poorly known. Cognitive functioning is flexible and may be influenced by genetic, psychological and environmental factors decades after TBI. The general aim of this thesis was to describe the long-term cognitive course after TBI, to find variables that may contribute to it, and how the cognitive functions after TBI are associated with specific medical factors and reduced survival. The original study group consisted of 192 patients with TBI who were originally assessed with the Mild Deterioration Battery (MDB) on average two years after the injury, during the years 1966 – 1972. During a 30-year follow-up, we studied the risks for reduced survival, and the mortality of the patients was compared with the general population using the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR). Sixty-one patients were re-assessed during 1998-2000. These patients were evaluated with the MDB, computerized testing, and with various other neuropsychological methods for attention and executive functions. Apolipoprotein-E (ApoE) genotyping and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) based on volumetric analysis of the hippocampus and lateral ventricles were performed. Depressive symptoms were evaluated with the short form of the Beck depression inventory. The cognitive performance at follow-up was compared with a control group that was similar to the study group in regard to age and education. The cognitive outcome of the patients with TBI varied after three decades. The majority of the patients showed a decline in their cognitive level, the rest either improved or stayed at the same level. Male gender and higher age at injury were significant risk factors for the decline. Whereas most cognitive domains declined during the follow-up, semantic memory behaved in the opposite way, showing recovery after TBI. In the follow-up assessment, the memory decline and impairments in the set-shifting domain of executive functions were associated with MRI-volumetric measures, whereas reduction in information-processing speed was not associated with the MRI measures. The presence of local contusions was only weakly associated with cognitive functions. Only few cognitive methods for attention were capable of discriminating TBI patients with and without depressive symptoms. On the other hand, most complex attentional tests were sensitive enough to discriminate TBI patients (non-depressive) from controls. This means that complex attention functions, mediated by the frontal lobes, are relatively independent of depressive symptoms post-TBI. The presence of ApoE4 was associated with different kinds of memory processes including verbal and visual episodic memory, semantic memory and verbal working memory, depending on the length of time since TBI. Many other cognitive processes were not affected by the presence of ApoE4. Age at injury and poor vocational outcome were independent risk factors for reduced survival in the multivariate analysis. Late mortality was higher among younger subjects (age < 40 years at death) compared with the general population which should be borne in mind when assessing the need for rehabilitation services and long-term follow-up after TBI.

Exploring Adaptive Implementation of On-Chip Networks

As technology geometries have shrunk to the deep submicron regime, the communication delay and power consumption of global interconnections in high performance Multi- Processor Systems-on-Chip (MPSoCs) are becoming a major bottleneck. The Network-on- Chip (NoC) architecture paradigm, based on a modular packet-switched mechanism, can address many of the on-chip communication issues such as performance limitations of long interconnects and integration of large number of Processing Elements (PEs) on a chip. The choice of routing protocol and NoC structure can have a significant impact on performance and power consumption in on-chip networks. In addition, building a high performance, area and energy efficient on-chip network for multicore architectures requires a novel on-chip router allowing a larger network to be integrated on a single die with reduced power consumption. On top of that, network interfaces are employed to decouple computation resources from communication resources, to provide the synchronization between them, and to achieve backward compatibility with existing IP cores. Three adaptive routing algorithms are presented as a part of this thesis. The first presented routing protocol is a congestion-aware adaptive routing algorithm for 2D mesh NoCs which does not support multicast (one-to-many) traffic while the other two protocols are adaptive routing models supporting both unicast (one-to-one) and multicast traffic. A streamlined on-chip router architecture is also presented for avoiding congested areas in 2D mesh NoCs via employing efficient input and output selection. The output selection utilizes an adaptive routing algorithm based on the congestion condition of neighboring routers while the input selection allows packets to be serviced from each input port according to its congestion level. Moreover, in order to increase memory parallelism and bring compatibility with existing IP cores in network-based multiprocessor architectures, adaptive network interface architectures are presented to use multiple SDRAMs which can be accessed simultaneously. In addition, a smart memory controller is integrated in the adaptive network interface to improve the memory utilization and reduce both memory and network latencies. Three Dimensional Integrated Circuits (3D ICs) have been emerging as a viable candidate to achieve better performance and package density as compared to traditional 2D ICs. In addition, combining the benefits of 3D IC and NoC schemes provides a significant performance gain for 3D architectures. In recent years, inter-layer communication across multiple stacked layers (vertical channel) has attracted a lot of interest. In this thesis, a novel adaptive pipeline bus structure is proposed for inter-layer communication to improve the performance by reducing the delay and complexity of traditional bus arbitration. In addition, two mesh-based topologies for 3D architectures are also introduced to mitigate the inter-layer footprint and power dissipation on each layer with a small performance penalty.

Automated Software Testing in Machine Automation

The problem of software (SW) defaults is becoming more and more topical because of increasing amount of the SW and its complication. The majority of these defaults are founded during the test part that consumes about 40-50% of the development efforts. Test automation allows reducing the cost of this process and increasing testing effectiveness. In the middle of 1980 the first tools for automated testing appeared and the automated process was implemented in different kinds of SW testing. In short time, it became obviously, automated testing can cause many problems such as increasing product cost, decreasing reliability and even project fail. This thesis describes automated testing process, its concept, lists main problems, and gives an algorithm for automated test tools selection. Also this work presents an overview of the main automated test tools for embedded systems.

COMPARISON BETWEEN WOOD DRYING DEFECT SCORES: SPECIMEN TESTING X ANALYSIS OF KILN-DRIED BOARDS

It is important to develop drying technologies for Eucalyptus grandis lumber, which is one of the most planted species of this genus in Brazil and plays an important role as raw material for the wood industry. The general aim of this work was to assess the conventional kiln drying of juvenile wood of three clones of Eucalyptus grandis. The specific aims were to compare the behavior between: i) drying defects indicated by tests with wood specimens and conventional kiln-dried boards; and ii) physical properties and the drying quality. Five 11-year-old trees of each clone were felled, and only flatsawn boards of the first log were used. Basic density and total shrinkage were determined, and the drying test with wood specimens at 100 °C was carried out. Kiln drying of boards was performed, and initial and final moisture content, moisture gradient in thickness, drying stresses and drying defects were assessed. The defect scoring method was used to verify the behavior between the defects detected by specimen testing and the defects detected in kiln-dried boards. As main results, the drying schedule was too severe for the wood, resulting in a high level of boards with defects. The behavior between the defects in the drying test with specimens and the defects of kiln-dried boards was different, there was no correspondence, according to the defect scoring method.

Determining the concrete stiffness matrix through ultrasonic testing

The determination of the modulus tangent (Eci ) and of the modulus secant (Ecs) of the concrete can be done using compression test but, to be simpler, it is used relations with characteristic strength (f ck). Relations are also used to determine the transversal modulus (Gc) and, in the case of the Poisson's ratio (ν), a fixed value 0.20 is established. The objective of this research was to evaluate the use of the ultrasonic propagation waves to determine these properties. For the tests were used specimens with f ck varying from 10 to 35 MPa. For the ultrasonic tests were used cylindrical and cubic specimens. The modulus of deformation obtained by ultrasound was statistically equivalent to the obtained by compression tests. The results of modules obtained using the relations with f ck was far away from those obtained by ultrasound or by compression tests. The Poisson's ratio obtained by ultrasound was superior to the fixed value. We can conclude that the concrete characterization by ultrasound is consistent and, to this characterization the cylindrical specimen, normally used to determine f ck, can be used.

Testing Futures Market Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation: Evidence from Futures and Options on RTS

This study investigates futures market efficiency and optimal hedge ratio estimation. First, cointegration between spot and futures prices is studied using Johansen method, with two different model specifications. If prices are found cointegrated, restrictions on cointegrating vector and adjustment coefficients are imposed, to account for unbiasedness, weak exogeneity and prediction hypothesis. Second, optimal hedge ratios are estimated using static OLS, and time-varying DVEC and CCC models. In-sample and out-of-sample results for one, two and five period ahead are reported. The futures used in thesis are RTS index, EUR/RUB exchange rate and Brent oil, traded in Futures and options on RTS.(FORTS) For in-sample period, data points were acquired from start of trading of each futures contract, RTS index from August 2005, EUR/RUB exchange rate March 2009 and Brent oil October 2008, lasting till end of May 2011. Out-of-sample period covers start of June 2011, till end of December 2011. Our results indicate that all three asset pairs, spot and futures, are cointegrated. We found RTS index futures to be unbiased predictor of spot price, mixed evidence for exchange rate, and for Brent oil futures unbiasedness was not supported. Weak exogeneity results for all pairs indicated spot price to lead in price discovery process. Prediction hypothesis, unbiasedness and weak exogeneity of futures, was rejected for all asset pairs. Variance reduction results varied between assets, in-sample in range of 40-85 percent and out-of sample in range of 40-96 percent. Differences between models were found small, except for Brent oil in which OLS clearly dominated. Out-of-sample results indicated exceptionally high variance reduction for RTS index, approximately 95 percent.

Externally excited synchronous machine: Testing the automation concept

This bachelor’s thesis is a part of the research project realized in the summer 2011 in Lappeenranta University of Technology. The goal of the project was to develop an automation concept for controlling the externally excited synchronous motor. Thesis concentrates on the testing planning and testing the system. Testing plan was made for three sectors: For the PLC program testing, for the communication testing and for the whole system testing. PLC program was tested with white box and destructive methods. Communication testing was done by switching maximum com-munication speed and checked if communication was reliable. Whole system testing included among other things speed and torque controlling. The system was tested with exploratory testing also. This enabled more reliable and broader testing than with systematical testing only.