Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 1 of 4 : understanding probability

An introduction to elicitation of experts' probabilities, which illustrates common problems with reasoning and how to circumvent them during elicitation.

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, part 2 of 4: designing elicitation

An introduction to design of eliciting knowledge from experts.

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 4 of 4: eliciting a conditional probability table

An introduction to eliciting a conditional probability table in a Bayesian Network model, highlighting three efficient methods for populating a CPT.

The motivation and structure of corrupt police networks : theorising the dark side of the ‘thin blue line’

In recent times considerable research attention has been directed to understanding dark networks, especially criminal and terrorist networks. Dark networks are those in which member motivations are self rather than public interested, achievements come at the cost of other individuals, groups or societies and, in addition, their activities are both ‘covert and illegal’ (Raab & Milward, 2003: 415). This ‘darkness’ has implications for the way in which these networks are structured, the strategies adopted and their recruitment methods. Such entities exhibit distinctive operating characteristics including most notably the tension between creating an efficient network structure while retaining the ability to hide from public view while avoiding catastrophic collapse should one member cooperate with authorities (Bouchard 2007). While theoretical emphasis has been on criminal and terrorist networks, recent work has demonstrated that corrupt police networks exhibit some distinctive characteristics. In particular, these entities operate within the shadows of a host organisation - the Police Force and distort the functioning of the ‘Thin Blue Line’ as the interface between the law abiding citizenry and the criminal society. Drawing on data derived from the Queensland Fitzgerald Commission of Enquiry into Police Misconduct and related documents, this paper examines the motivations, structural properties and operational practices of corrupt police networks and compares and contrasts these with other dark networks with ‘bright’ public service networks. The paper confirms the structural differences between dark corrupt police networks and bright networks and suggests. However, structural embeddedness alone is found to be an insufficient theoretical explanation for member involvement in networks and that a set of elements combine to impact decision-making. Although offering important insights into network participation, the paper’s findings are especially pertinent in identifying additional points of intervention for police corruption networks.

Fiber Bragg Grating sensors for railway systems

Fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensor technology has been attracting substantial industrial interests for the last decade. FBG sensors have seen increasing acceptance and widespread use for structural sensing and health monitoring applications in composites, civil engineering, aerospace, marine, oil & gas, and smart structures. One transportation system that has been benefitted tremendously from this technology is railways, where it is of the utmost importance to understand the structural and operating conditions of rails as well as that of freight and passenger service cars to ensure safe and reliable operation. Fiberoptic sensors, mostly in the form of FBGs, offer various important characteristics, such as EMI/RFI immunity, multiplexing capability, and very long-range interrogation (up to 230 km between FBGs and measurement unit), over the conventional electrical sensors for the distinctive operational conditions in railways. FBG sensors are unique from other types of fiber-optic sensors as the measured information is wavelength-encoded, which provides self-referencing and renders their signals less susceptible to intensity fluctuations. In addition, FBGs are reflective sensors that can be interrogated from either end, providing redundancy to FBG sensing networks. These two unique features are particularly important for the railway industry where safe and reliable operations are the major concerns. Furthermore, FBGs are very versatile and transducers based on FBGs can be designed to measure a wide range of parameters such as acceleration and inclination. Consequently, a single interrogator can deal with a large number of FBG sensors to measure a multitude of parameters at different locations that spans over a large area.

Urban food futures : ICTs and opportunities

Food is a vital foundation of all human life. It is essential to a myriad of political, socio-cultural, economic and environmental practices throughout history. However, those practices of food production, consumption, and distribution have the potential to now go through immensely transformative shifts as network technologies become increasingly embedded in every domain of contemporary life. Information and communication technologies (ICTs) are one of the key foundations of global functionality and sustenance today and undoubtedly will continue to present new challenges and opportunities for the future. As such, this Symposium will bring together leading scholars across disciplines to address challenges and opportunities at the intersection of food and ICTs in everyday urban environment. In particular, the discussion will revolve around the question: What are the key roles that network technologies play in re-shaping the food systems at micro- to macroscopic level? The symposium will contribute a unique perspective on urban food futures through the lens of network society paradigm where ICTs enable innovations in production, organisation, and communication within society. Some of the topics addressed will include encouraging transparency in food commodity chains; value of cultural understanding and communication in global food sustainability; and technologies to social inclusion; all of which evoke and examine the question surrounding networked individuals as changes catalysts for urban food futures. The event will provide an avenue for new discussions and speculations on key issues surrounding urban food futures in the network era, with a particular focus on bottom-up micro actions that challenge the existing food systems towards a broader sociocultural, political, technological, and environmental transformations. One central area of concern is that current systems of food production, distribution, and consumption do not ensure food security for the future, but rather seriously threaten it. With the recent unprecedented scale of urban growth and rise of middle-class, the problem continues to intensify. This situation requires extensive distribution networks to feed urban residents, and therefore poses significant infrastructural challenges to both the public and private sectors. The symposium will also address the transferability of citizen empowerment that network technologies enable as demonstrated in various significant global political transformations from the bottom-up, such as the recent Egyptian Youth Revolution. Another key theme of the discussion will be the role of ICTs (and the practices that they mediate) in fostering transparency in commodity chains. The symposium will ask what differences these technologies can make on the practices of food consumption and production. After discussions, we will initiate an international network of food-thinkers and actors that will function as a platform for knowledge sharing and collaborations. The participants will be invited to engage in planning for the on-going future development of the network.

A recommendation method for online dating networks based on social relations and demographic information

A new relationship type of social networks - online dating - are gaining popularity. With a large member base, users of a dating network are overloaded with choices about their ideal partners. Recommendation methods can be utilized to overcome this problem. However, traditional recommendation methods do not work effectively for online dating networks where the dataset is sparse and large, and a two-way matching is required. This paper applies social networking concepts to solve the problem of developing a recommendation method for online dating networks. We propose a method by using clustering, SimRank and adapted SimRank algorithms to recommend matching candidates. Empirical results show that the proposed method can achieve nearly double the performance of the traditional collaborative filtering and common neighbor methods of recommendation.

Communications and learning structures that facilitate transfer of knowledge at innovation transition points

Innovation processes are rarely smooth and disruptions often occur at transition points were one knowledge domain passes the technology on to another domain. At these transition points communication is a key component in assisting the smooth hand over of technologies. However for smooth transitions to occur we argue that appropriate structures have to be in place and boundary spanning activities need to be facilitated. This paper presents three case studies of innovation processes and the findings support the view that structures and boundary spanning are essential for smooth transitions. We have explained the need to pass primary responsibility between agents to successfully bring an innovation to market. We have also shown the need to combine knowledge through effective communication so that absorptive capacity is built in process throughout the organisation rather than in one or two key individuals.

Professional growth through working together : a study of reciprocal benefits for teacher and education advisor through classroom based professional development

Teacher professional development provided by education advisors as one-off, centrally offered sessions does not always result in change in teacher knowledge, beliefs, attitudes or practice in the classroom. As the mathematics education advisor in this study, I set out to investigate a particular method of professional development so as to influence change in a practising classroom teacher’s knowledge and practices. The particular method of professional development utilised in this study was based on several principles of effective teacher professional development and saw me working regularly in a classroom with the classroom teacher as well as providing ongoing support for her for a full school year. The intention was to document the effects of this particular method of professional development in terms of the classroom teacher’s and my professional growth to provide insights for others working as education advisors. The professional development for the classroom teacher consisted of two components. The first was the co-operative development and implementation of a mental computation instructional program for the Year 3 class. The second component was the provision of ongoing support for the classroom teacher by the education advisor. The design of the professional development and the mental computation instructional program were progressively refined throughout the year. The education advisor fulfilled multiple roles in the study as teacher in the classroom, teacher educator working with the classroom teacher and researcher. Examples of the professional growth of the classroom teacher and the education advisor which occurred as sequences of changes (growth networks, Hollingsworth, 1999) in the domains of the professional world of the classroom teacher and education advisor were drawn from the large body of data collected through regular face-to-face and email communications between the classroom teacher and the education advisor as well as from transcripts of a structured interview. The Interconnected Model of Professional Growth (Clarke & Hollingsworth, 2002; Hollingsworth, 1999) was used to summarise and represent each example of the classroom teacher’s professional growth. A modified version of this model was used to summarise and represent the professional growth of the education advisor. This study confirmed that the method of professional development utilised could lead to significant teacher professional growth related directly to her work in the classroom. Using the Interconnected Model of Professional Growth to summarise and represent the classroom teacher’s professional growth and the modified version for my professional growth assisted with the recognition of examples of how we both changed. This model has potential to be used more widely by education advisors when preparing, implementing, evaluating and following-up on planned teacher professional development activities. The mental computation instructional program developed and trialled in the study was shown to be a successful way of sequencing and managing the teaching of mental computation strategies and related number sense understandings to Year 3 students. This study was conducted in one classroom, with one teacher in one school. The strength of this study was the depth of teacher support provided made possible by the particular method of the professional development, and the depth of analysis of the process. In another school, or with another teacher, this might not have been as successful. While I set out to change my practice as an education advisor I did not expect the depth of learning I experienced in terms of my knowledge, beliefs, attitudes and practices as an educator of teachers. This study has changed the way in which I plan to work as an education advisor in the future.

Quo Vadis? Reliable and Practical Rule Extraction from Neural Networks

Rule extraction from neural network algorithms have been investigated for two decades and there have been significant applications. Despite this level of success, rule extraction from neural network methods are generally not part of data mining tools, and a significant commercial breakthrough may still be some time away. This paper briefly reviews the state-of-the-art and points to some of the obstacles, namely a lack of evaluation techniques in experiments and larger benchmark data sets. A significant new development is the view that rule extraction from neural networks is an interactive process which actively involves the user. This leads to the application of assessment and evaluation techniques from information retrieval which may lead to a range of new methods.

Power relations and small and medium-sized enterprise strategies for capturing value in global production networks: visual effects (VFX) service firm in the Hollywood film industry

Power relations and small and medium-sized enterprise strategies for capturing value in global production networks: visual effects (VFX) service firms in the Hollywood film industry, Regional Studies. This paper provides insights into the way in which non-lead firms manoeuvre in global value chains in the pursuit of a larger share of revenue and how power relations affect these manoeuvres. It examines the nature of value capture and power relations in the global supply of visual effects (VFX) services and the range of strategies VFX firms adopt to capture higher value in the global value chain. The analysis is based on a total of thirty-six interviews with informants in the industry in Australia, the United Kingdom and Canada, and a database of VFX credits for 3323 visual products for 640 VFX firms.

Fuzzy methods for analysis of microarrays and networks

Bioinformatics involves analyses of biological data such as DNA sequences, microarrays and protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks. Its two main objectives are the identification of genes or proteins and the prediction of their functions. Biological data often contain uncertain and imprecise information. Fuzzy theory provides useful tools to deal with this type of information, hence has played an important role in analyses of biological data. In this thesis, we aim to develop some new fuzzy techniques and apply them on DNA microarrays and PPI networks. We will focus on three problems: (1) clustering of microarrays; (2) identification of disease-associated genes in microarrays; and (3) identification of protein complexes in PPI networks. The first part of the thesis aims to detect, by the fuzzy C-means (FCM) method, clustering structures in DNA microarrays corrupted by noise. Because of the presence of noise, some clustering structures found in random data may not have any biological significance. In this part, we propose to combine the FCM with the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) for clustering microarray data. The purpose of EMD is to reduce, preferably to remove, the effect of noise, resulting in what is known as denoised data. We call this method the fuzzy C-means method with empirical mode decomposition (FCM-EMD). We applied this method on yeast and serum microarrays, and the silhouette values are used for assessment of the quality of clustering. The results indicate that the clustering structures of denoised data are more reasonable, implying that genes have tighter association with their clusters. Furthermore we found that the estimation of the fuzzy parameter m, which is a difficult step, can be avoided to some extent by analysing denoised microarray data. The second part aims to identify disease-associated genes from DNA microarray data which are generated under different conditions, e.g., patients and normal people. We developed a type-2 fuzzy membership (FM) function for identification of diseaseassociated genes. This approach is applied to diabetes and lung cancer data, and a comparison with the original FM test was carried out. Among the ten best-ranked genes of diabetes identified by the type-2 FM test, seven genes have been confirmed as diabetes-associated genes according to gene description information in Gene Bank and the published literature. An additional gene is further identified. Among the ten best-ranked genes identified in lung cancer data, seven are confirmed that they are associated with lung cancer or its treatment. The type-2 FM-d values are significantly different, which makes the identifications more convincing than the original FM test. The third part of the thesis aims to identify protein complexes in large interaction networks. Identification of protein complexes is crucial to understand the principles of cellular organisation and to predict protein functions. In this part, we proposed a novel method which combines the fuzzy clustering method and interaction probability to identify the overlapping and non-overlapping community structures in PPI networks, then to detect protein complexes in these sub-networks. Our method is based on both the fuzzy relation model and the graph model. We applied the method on several PPI networks and compared with a popular protein complex identification method, the clique percolation method. For the same data, we detected more protein complexes. We also applied our method on two social networks. The results showed our method works well for detecting sub-networks and give a reasonable understanding of these communities.

Multifractal characterisation and analysis of complex networks

Complex networks have been studied extensively due to their relevance to many real-world systems such as the world-wide web, the internet, biological and social systems. During the past two decades, studies of such networks in different fields have produced many significant results concerning their structures, topological properties, and dynamics. Three well-known properties of complex networks are scale-free degree distribution, small-world effect and self-similarity. The search for additional meaningful properties and the relationships among these properties is an active area of current research. This thesis investigates a newer aspect of complex networks, namely their multifractality, which is an extension of the concept of selfsimilarity. The first part of the thesis aims to confirm that the study of properties of complex networks can be expanded to a wider field including more complex weighted networks. Those real networks that have been shown to possess the self-similarity property in the existing literature are all unweighted networks. We use the proteinprotein interaction (PPI) networks as a key example to show that their weighted networks inherit the self-similarity from the original unweighted networks. Firstly, we confirm that the random sequential box-covering algorithm is an effective tool to compute the fractal dimension of complex networks. This is demonstrated on the Homo sapiens and E. coli PPI networks as well as their skeletons. Our results verify that the fractal dimension of the skeleton is smaller than that of the original network due to the shortest distance between nodes is larger in the skeleton, hence for a fixed box-size more boxes will be needed to cover the skeleton. Then we adopt the iterative scoring method to generate weighted PPI networks of five species, namely Homo sapiens, E. coli, yeast, C. elegans and Arabidopsis Thaliana. By using the random sequential box-covering algorithm, we calculate the fractal dimensions for both the original unweighted PPI networks and the generated weighted networks. The results show that self-similarity is still present in generated weighted PPI networks. This implication will be useful for our treatment of the networks in the third part of the thesis. The second part of the thesis aims to explore the multifractal behavior of different complex networks. Fractals such as the Cantor set, the Koch curve and the Sierspinski gasket are homogeneous since these fractals consist of a geometrical figure which repeats on an ever-reduced scale. Fractal analysis is a useful method for their study. However, real-world fractals are not homogeneous; there is rarely an identical motif repeated on all scales. Their singularity may vary on different subsets; implying that these objects are multifractal. Multifractal analysis is a useful way to systematically characterize the spatial heterogeneity of both theoretical and experimental fractal patterns. However, the tools for multifractal analysis of objects in Euclidean space are not suitable for complex networks. In this thesis, we propose a new box covering algorithm for multifractal analysis of complex networks. This algorithm is demonstrated in the computation of the generalized fractal dimensions of some theoretical networks, namely scale-free networks, small-world networks, random networks, and a kind of real networks, namely PPI networks of different species. Our main finding is the existence of multifractality in scale-free networks and PPI networks, while the multifractal behaviour is not confirmed for small-world networks and random networks. As another application, we generate gene interactions networks for patients and healthy people using the correlation coefficients between microarrays of different genes. Our results confirm the existence of multifractality in gene interactions networks. This multifractal analysis then provides a potentially useful tool for gene clustering and identification. The third part of the thesis aims to investigate the topological properties of networks constructed from time series. Characterizing complicated dynamics from time series is a fundamental problem of continuing interest in a wide variety of fields. Recent works indicate that complex network theory can be a powerful tool to analyse time series. Many existing methods for transforming time series into complex networks share a common feature: they define the connectivity of a complex network by the mutual proximity of different parts (e.g., individual states, state vectors, or cycles) of a single trajectory. In this thesis, we propose a new method to construct networks of time series: we define nodes by vectors of a certain length in the time series, and weight of edges between any two nodes by the Euclidean distance between the corresponding two vectors. We apply this method to build networks for fractional Brownian motions, whose long-range dependence is characterised by their Hurst exponent. We verify the validity of this method by showing that time series with stronger correlation, hence larger Hurst exponent, tend to have smaller fractal dimension, hence smoother sample paths. We then construct networks via the technique of horizontal visibility graph (HVG), which has been widely used recently. We confirm a known linear relationship between the Hurst exponent of fractional Brownian motion and the fractal dimension of the corresponding HVG network. In the first application, we apply our newly developed box-covering algorithm to calculate the generalized fractal dimensions of the HVG networks of fractional Brownian motions as well as those for binomial cascades and five bacterial genomes. The results confirm the monoscaling of fractional Brownian motion and the multifractality of the rest. As an additional application, we discuss the resilience of networks constructed from time series via two different approaches: visibility graph and horizontal visibility graph. Our finding is that the degree distribution of VG networks of fractional Brownian motions is scale-free (i.e., having a power law) meaning that one needs to destroy a large percentage of nodes before the network collapses into isolated parts; while for HVG networks of fractional Brownian motions, the degree distribution has exponential tails, implying that HVG networks would not survive the same kind of attack.

Keeping friends safe : a prospective study examining early adolescent's confidence and support networks

There is a continued need to consider ways to prevent early adolescent engagement in a variety of harmful risk-taking behaviours for example, violence, road-related risks and alcohol use. The current prospective study examined adolescents’ reports of intervening to try and stop friends’ engagement in such behaviours among 207 early adolescents (mean age = 13.51 years, 50.1% females). Findings showed that intervening behaviour after three months was predicted by the confidence to intervene which in turn was predicted by student and teacher support although not parental support. The findings suggest that the benefits of positive relationship experiences might extend to the safety of early adolescent friendship groups particularly through the development of confidence to try and stop friends’ risky and dangerous behaviours. Findings from the study support the important role of the school in creating a culture of positive adolescent behaviour whereby young people take social responsibility.

Problematising the processes of participation in networks : working through the rhetoric

Participation in networks, both as a concept and process, is widely supported in environmental education as a democratic and equitable pathway to individual and social change for sustainability. However, the processes of participation in networks are rarely problematized. Rather, it is assumed that we inherently know how to participate in networks. This assumption means that participation is seldom questioned. Underlying support for participation in networks is a belief that it allows individuals to connect in new and meaningful ways, that individuals can engage in making decisions and in bringing about change in arenas that affect them, and that they will be engaging in new, non-hierarchical and equitable relationships. In this paper we problematize participation in networks. As an example we use research into a decentralized network – described as such in its own literature - the Queensland Environmentally Sustainable Schools Initiative Alliance in Australia – to argue that while network participants were engaged and committed to participation in this network, 'old' forms of top-down engagement and relationships needed to be unlearnt. This paper thus proposes that for participation in decentralized networks to be meaningful, new learning about how to participate needs to occur.