Yield gap analysis and assessment of climate-induced yield trends of irrigated rice in selected provinces of the Philippines

This study describes a combined empirical/modeling approach to assess the possible impact of climate variability on rice production in the Philippines. We collated climate data of the last two decades (1985-2002) as well as yield statistics of six provinces of the Philippines, selected along a North-South gradient. Data from the climate information system of NASA were used as input parameters of the model ORYZA2000 to determine potential yields and, in the next steps, the yield gaps defined as the difference between potential and actual yields. Both simulated and actual yields of irrigated rice varied strongly between years. However, no climate-driven trends were apparent and the variability in actual yields showed no correlation with climatic parameters. The observed variation in simulated yields was attributable to seasonal variations in climate (dry/wet season) and to climatic differences between provinces and agro-ecological zones. The actual yield variation between provinces was not related to differences in the climatic yield potential but rather to soil and management factors. The resulting yield gap was largest in remote and infrastructurally disfavored provinces (low external input use) with a high production potential (high solar radiation and day-night temperature differences). In turn, the yield gap was lowest in central provinces with good market access but with a relatively low climatic yield potential. We conclude that neither long-term trends nor the variability of the climate can explain current rice yield trends and that agroecological, seasonal, and management effects are over-riding any possible climatic variations. On the other hand the lack of a climate-driven trend in the present situation may be superseded by ongoing climate change in the future.

The role of ligneous vegetation for livestock nutrition in the sub-Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa: Potential effects of climate change

Climate change and variability in sub-Saharan West Africa is expected to have negative consequences for crop and livestock farming due to the strong dependence of these sectors on rainfall and natural resources, and the low adaptive capacity of crops farmers, agro-pastoralist and pastoralists in the region. The objective of this PhD research was to investigate the anticipated impacts of expected future climate change and variability on nutrition and grazing management of livestock in the prevailing extensive agro-pastoral and pastoral systems of the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of Burkina Faso. To achieve this, three studies were undertaken in selected village territories (100 km² each) in the southern Sahelian (Taffogo), northern Sudanian (Nobere, Safane) and southern Sudanian (Sokouraba) zone of the country during 2009 and 2010. The choice of two villages in the northern Sudanian zone was guided by the dichotomy between intense agricultural land use and high population density near Safane, and lower agricultural land use in the tampon zone between the village of Nobere and the National Park Kaboré Tambi of Pô. Using global positioning and geographical information systems tools, the spatio-temporal variation in the use of grazing areas by cattle, sheep and goats, and in their foraging behaviour in the four villages was assessed by monitoring three herds each per species during a one-year cycle (Chapter 2). Maximum itinerary lengths (km/d) were observed in the hot dry season (March-May); they were longer for sheep (18.8) and cattle (17.4) than for goats (10.5, p<0.05). Daily total grazing time spent on pasture ranged from 6 - 11 h with cattle staying longer on pasture than small ruminants (p<0.05). Feeding time accounted for 52% - 72% of daily time on pasture, irrespective of species. Herds spent longer time on pasture and walked farther distances in the southern Sahelian than the two Sudanian zones (p<0.01), while daily feeding time was longer in the southern Sudanian than in the other two zones (p>0.05). Proportional time spent resting decreased from the rainy (June - October) to the cool (November - February) and hot dry season (p<0.05), while in parallel the proportion of walking time increased. Feeding time of all species was to a significantly high proportion spent on wooded land (tree crown cover 5-10%, or shrub cover >10%) in the southern Sahelian zone, and on forest land (tree crown cover >10%) in the two Sudanian zones, irrespective of season. It is concluded that with the expansion of cropland in the whole region, remaining islands of wooded land, including also fields fallowed for three or more years with their considerable shrub cover, are particularly valuable pasturing areas for ruminant stock. Measures must be taken that counteract the shrinking of wooded land and forests across the whole region, including also active protection and (re)establishment of drought-tolerant fodder trees. Observation of the selection behaviour of the above herds of cattle and small ruminant as far as browse species were concerned, and interviews with 75 of Fulani livestock keepers on use of browse as feed by their ruminant stock and as remedies for animal disease treatment was undertaken (Chapter 3) in order to evaluate the consequence of climate change for the contribution of browse to livestock nutrition and animal health in the extensive grazing-based livestock systems. The results indicated that grazing cattle and small ruminants do make considerable use of browse species on pasture across the studied agro-ecological zones. Goats spent more time (p<0.01) feeding on browse species than sheep and cattle, which spent a low to moderate proportion of their feeding time on browsing in any of the study sites. As far as the agro-ecological zones were concerned, the contribution of browse species to livestock nutrition was more important in the southern Sahelian and northern Sudanian zone than the southern Sudanian zone, and this contribution is higher during the cold and hot dry season than during the rainy season. A total of 75 browse species were selected on pasture year around, whereby cattle strongly preferred Afzelia africana, Pterocarpus erinaceus and Piliostigma sp., while sheep and goats primarily fed on Balanites aegyptiaca, Ziziphus mauritiana and Acacia sp. Crude protein concentration (in DM) of pods or fruits of the most important browse species selected by goats, sheep and cattle ranged from 7% to 13% for pods, and from 10% to 18% for foliage. The concentration of digestible organic matter of preferred browse species mostly ranged from 40% to 60%, and the concentrations of total phenols, condensed tannins and acid detergent lignin were low. Linear regression analyses showed that browse preference on pasture is strongly related to its contents (% of DM) of CP, ADF, NDF and OM digestibility. Interviewed livestock keepers reported that browse species are increasingly use by their grazing animals, while for animal health care use of tree- and shrub-based remedies decreased over the last two decades. It is concluded that due to climate change with expected negative impact on the productivity of the herbaceous layer of communal pastures browse fodder will gain in importance for animal nutrition. Therefore re-establishment and dissemination of locally adapted browse species preferred by ruminants is needed to increase the nutritional situation of ruminant stock in the region and contribute to species diversity and soil fertility restoration in degraded pasture areas. In Chapter 4 a combination of household surveys and participatory research approaches was used in the four villages, and additionally in the village of Zogoré (southern Sahelian zone) and of Karangasso Vigué (northern Sudanian zone) to investigate pastoralists’ (n= 76) and agro-pastoralists’ (n= 83) perception of climate change, and their adaptation strategies in crop and livestock production at farm level. Across the three agro-ecological zones, the majority of the interviewees perceived an increase in maximum day temperatures and decrease of total annual rainfall over the last two decades. Perceptions of change in climate patterns were in line with meteorological data for increased temperatures while for total rainfall farmers’ views contrasted the rainfall records which showed a slight increase of precipitation. According to all interviewees climate change and variability have negative impacts on their crop and animal husbandry, and most of them already adopted some coping and adaptation strategies at farm level to secure their livelihoods and reduce negative impacts on their farming system. Although these strategies are valuable and can help crop and livestock farmers to cope with the recurrent droughts and climate variability, they are not effective against expected extreme climate events. Governmental and non-governmental organisations should develop effective policies and strategies at local, regional and national level to support farmers in their endeavours to cope with climate change phenomena; measures should be site-specific and take into account farmers’ experiences and strategies already in place.

Assessing adaptation – Climate change and indigenous livelihood in the Andes of Bolivia

Based on a case study of Charazani – Bolivia, this article outlines the understanding of adaptive strategies to cope with climate change and its impact on environmental and socioeconomic conditions that are affecting rural livelihoods. Mainly qualitative methods were used to collect and analyze data following the framework for vulnerability assessments of a socio-ecological system. Climate data reveals an increase of precipitation and temperature during the last decades. Furthermore the occurrence of extreme weather events, particularly drought, frost, hailstorms and consequently landslides and fire are increasing. Local testimonies highlight these events as the principle reasons for agricultural losses. This climatic variability and simultaneous social changes were identified as the drivers of vulnerability. Yet, several adaptive measures were identified at household, community and external levels in order to cope with such vulnerability; e.g. traditional techniques in agriculture and risk management. Gradually, farmers complement these activities with contemporary practices in agriculture, like intensification of land use, diversification of irrigation system and use of artificial fertilizers. As part of a recent trend community members are forced to search for new off-farm alternatives beyond agriculture for subsistence. Despite there is a correspondingly large array of possible adaptation measures that families are implementing, local testimonies point out, that farmers often do not have the capacity and neither the economical resources to mitigate the risk in agricultural production. Although several actions are already considered to promote further adaptive capacity, the current target is to improve existing livelihood strategies by reducing vulnerability to hazards induced by climate change.

Climate change and hunger as the challenges in the global food system

In the last decades, there has been a growing tendency towards international trade and globalisation, particularly leading to a significant increase in flows of agricultural commodities worldwide. From a macroeconomic perspective, the commodity projections are more optimistic than the previous years and the long run tendency shows an increasing demand for feedstock. However, the strong shifts of shocks and fluctuations (in terms of prices and volumes) are a concern to global food security, with the number of hungry people rising to nearly one billion. Agriculture is a main user of natural resources, and it has a strong link with rural societies and the environment. Forecasted impacts from climate change, limited productive endorsements and emerging rivals on crop production, such bio-energy, aggravate the panorama on food scarcity. In this context, it is a great challenge on farming and food systems to reduce global hunger and produce in sustainable ways adequate supplies for food, feed, and non-food uses. The main objective of this work is to question the sustainability of food and agriculture systems. It is particularly interesting to know its role and if it will be able to respond to a growing population with increasing food demand in a world where pressure on land, water and other natural resources are already evident, and, moreover, climate change will also condition and impact the outcome. Furthermore, a deeper focus will be set on developing countries, which are expected to emerge and take a leading role in the international arena. This short paper is structured as follows: Section I, “Introduction”, describes the social situation regarding hunger, Section II, “Global Context”, attempts to summarise the current scenario in the international trading scheme and present the emerging rivals for primary resources, and in Section III, “Climate Change”, presents an overview of possible changes in the sector and future perspectives in the field. Finally, in Section IV, “Conclusion”, the main conclusions are presented.

Climate-Adaptive Community Water Management for Food Security: Experiences from the UNDP Community Water Initiative

Facing the double menace of climate change threats and water crisis, poor communities have now encountered ever more severe challenges in ensuring agricultural productivity and food security. Communities hence have to manage these challenges by adopting a comprehensive approach that not only enhances water resource management, but also adapts agricultural activities to climate variability. Implemented by the Global Environment Facility’s Small Grants Programme, the Community Water Initiative (CWI) has adopted a distinctive approach to support demand-driven, innovative, low cost and community-based water resource management for food security. Experiences from CWI showed that a comprehensive, locally adapted approach that integrates water resources management, poverty reduction, climate adaptation and community empowerment provides a good model for sustainable development in poor rural areas.

Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies used by rice farmers in Southwestern, Nigeria

Poor adaptation to climate change is a major threat to sustainable rice production in Nigeria. Determinants of appropriate climate-change adaptation strategies used by rice farmers in Southwestern Nigeria have not been fully investigated. In this study, the determinants of climate change adaptation strategies used by rice farmers in Southwestern Nigeria were investigated. Data were obtained through Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and field survey conducted in the study areas. Data obtained were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistical tools such as percentage and regression analysis. The major climate change adaptation strategies used by the respondents included; planting improved rice variety such as Federal Agricultural Research Oryza (FARO) (80.5 %), seeking early warning information (80.9 %), shifting planting date until the weather condition was favourable (99.1 %), and using chemical fertilizer on their farms in order to maintain soil fertility (20.5 %). The determinants of climate change adaptation strategies used by the farmers, included access to early warning information (β=43.04), access to fertilizer (β=5.78), farm plot size (β=–12.04) and access to regular water supply (β=–24.79). Climate change adaptation required provision of incentives to farmers, training on drought and flood control, and the use of improved technology to obtain higher yield.

A pilot investigation of the relationship between climate variability and milk compounds under the bootstrap technique

This study analyzes the linear relationship between climate variables and milk components in Iran by applying bootstrapping to include and assess the uncertainty. The climate parameters, Temperature Humidity Index (THI) and Equivalent Temperature Index (ETI) are computed from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis (2002–2010). Milk data for fat, protein (measured on fresh matter bases), and milk yield are taken from 936,227 milk records for the same period, using cows fed by natural pasture from April to September. Confidence intervals for the regression model are calculated using the bootstrap technique. This method is applied to the original times series, generating statistically equivalent surrogate samples. As a result, despite the short time data and the related uncertainties, an interesting behavior of the relationships between milk compound and the climate parameters is visible. During spring only, a weak dependency of milk yield and climate variations is obvious, while fat and protein concentrations show reasonable correlations. In summer, milk yield shows a similar level of relationship with ETI, but not with temperature and THI. We suggest this methodology for studies in the field of the impacts of climate change and agriculture, also environment and food with short-term data.

Effects of shoot pruning and inflorescence thinning on plant growth, yield and fruit quality of greenhouse tomatoes in a tropical climate

The combined effects of shoot pruning (one or two stems) and inflorescence thinning (five or ten flowers per inflorescence) on greenhouse tomato yield and fruit quality were studied during the dry season (DS) and rainy season (RS) in Central Thailand. Poor fruit set, development of undersized (mostly parthenocarpic) fruits, as well as the physiological disorders blossom-end rot (BER) and fruit cracking (FC) turned out to be the prevailing causes deteriorating fruit yield and quality. The proportion of marketable fruits was less than 10% in the RS and around 65% in the DS. In both seasons, total yield was significantly increased when plants were cultivated with two stems, resulting in higher marketable yields only in the DS. While the fraction of undersized fruits was increased in both seasons when plants were grown with a secondary stem, the proportions of BER and FC were significantly reduced. Restricting the number of flowers per inflorescence invariably resulted in reduced total yield. However, in neither season did fruit load considerably affect quantity or proportion of the marketable yield fraction. Inflorescence thinning tended to promote BER and FC, an effect which was only significant for BER in the RS. In conclusion, for greenhouse tomato production under climate conditions as they are prevalent in Central Thailand, the cultivation with two stems appears to be highly recommendable whereas the measures to control fruit load tested in this study did not proof to be advisable.

Site Controller: A System for Computer-Aided Civil Engineering and Construction

A revolution\0\0\0 in earthmoving, a $100 billion industry, can be achieved with three components: the GPS location system, sensors and computers in bulldozers, and SITE CONTROLLER, a central computer system that maintains design data and directs operations. The first two components are widely available; I built SITE CONTROLLER to complete the triangle and describe it here. SITE CONTROLLER assists civil engineers in the design, estimation, and construction of earthworks, including hazardous waste site remediation. The core of SITE CONTROLLER is a site modelling system that represents existing and prospective terrain shapes, roads, hydrology, etc. Around this core are analysis, simulation, and vehicle control tools. Integrating these modules into one program enables civil engineers and contractors to use a single interface and database throughout the life of a project.

Microscale thermal engineering of electronic systems

The electronics industry is encountering thermal challenges and opportunities with lengthscales comparable to or much less than one micrometer. Examples include nanoscale phonon hotspots in transistors and the increasing temperature rise in onchip interconnects. Millimeter-scale hotspots on microprocessors, resulting from varying rates of power consumption, are being addressed using two-phase microchannel heat sinks. Nanoscale thermal data storage technology has received much attention recently. This paper provides an overview of these topics with a focus on related research at Stanford University.

Modeling the Transport Sector: The Role of Existing Fuel Taxes in Climate Policy

Existing fuel taxes play a major role in determining the welfare effects of exempting the transportation sector from measures to control greenhouse gases. To study this phenomenon we modify the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to disaggregate the household transportation sector. This improvement requires an extension of the GTAP data set that underlies the model. The revised and extended facility is then used to compare economic costs of cap-and-trade systems differentiated by sector, focusing on two regions: the USA where the fuel taxes are low, and Europe where the fuel taxes are high. We find that the interplay between carbon policies and pre-existing taxes leads to different results in these regions: in the USA exemption of transport from such a system would increase the welfare cost of achieving a national emissions target, while in Europe such exemptions will correct pre-existing distortions and reduce the cost.

Nanocrystalline Ge Flash Memories: Electrical Characterization and Trap Engineering

Conventional floating gate non-volatile memories (NVMs) present critical issues for device scalability beyond the sub-90 nm node, such as gate length and tunnel oxide thickness reduction. Nanocrystalline germanium (nc-Ge) quantum dot flash memories are fully CMOS compatible technology based on discrete isolated charge storage nodules which have the potential of pushing further the scalability of conventional NVMs. Quantum dot memories offer lower operating voltages as compared to conventional floating-gate (FG) Flash memories due to thinner tunnel dielectrics which allow higher tunneling probabilities. The isolated charge nodules suppress charge loss through lateral paths, thereby achieving a superior charge retention time. Despite the considerable amount of efforts devoted to the study of nanocrystal Flash memories, the charge storage mechanism remains obscure. Interfacial defects of the nanocrystals seem to play a role in charge storage in recent studies, although storage in the nanocrystal conduction band by quantum confinement has been reported earlier. In this work, a single transistor memory structure with threshold voltage shift, Vth, exceeding ~1.5 V corresponding to interface charge trapping in nc-Ge, operating at 0.96 MV/cm, is presented. The trapping effect is eliminated when nc-Ge is synthesized in forming gas thus excluding the possibility of quantum confinement and Coulomb blockade effects. Through discharging kinetics, the model of deep level trap charge storage is confirmed. The trap energy level is dependent on the matrix which confines the nc-Ge.

Apatite-Polymer Composites for the Controlled Dual Delivery of BMP-2 and BMP-6 for Bone Tissue Engineering

The release of growth factors from tissue engineering scaffolds provides signals that influence the migration, differentiation, and proliferation of cells. The incorporation of a drug delivery platform that is capable of tunable release will give tissue engineers greater versatility in the direction of tissue regeneration. We have prepared a novel composite of two biomaterials with proven track records - apatite and poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) – as a drug delivery platform with promising controlled release properties. These composites have been tested in the delivery of a model protein, bovine serum albumin (BSA), as well as therapeutic proteins, recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein-2 (rhBMP-2) and rhBMP-6. The controlled release strategy is based on the use of a polymer with acidic degradation products to control the dissolution of the basic apatitic component, resulting in protein release. Therefore, any parameter that affects either polymer degradation or apatite dissolution can be used to control protein release. We have modified the protein release profile systematically by varying the polymer molecular weight, polymer hydrophobicity, apatite loading, apatite particle size, and other material and processing parameters. Biologically active rhBMP-2 was released from these composite microparticles over 100 days, in contrast to conventional collagen sponge carriers, which were depleted in approximately 2 weeks. The released rhBMP-2 was able to induce elevated alkaline phosphatase and osteocalcin expression in pluripotent murine embryonic fibroblasts. To augment tissue engineering scaffolds with tunable and sustained protein release capabilities, these composite microparticles can be dispersed in the scaffolds in different combinations to obtain a superposition of the release profiles. We have loaded rhBMP-2 into composite microparticles with a fast release profile, and rhBMP-6 into slow-releasing composite microparticles. An equi-mixture of these two sets of composite particles was then injected into a collagen sponge, allowing for dual release of the proteins from the collagenous scaffold. The ability of these BMP-loaded scaffolds to induce osteoblastic differentiation in vitro and ectopic bone formation in a rat model is being investigated. We anticipate that these apatite-polymer composite microparticles can be extended to the delivery of other signalling molecules, and can be incorporated into other types of tissue engineering scaffolds.

Cell-line Engineering of Chinese Hamster Ovary Cells for Low-temperature Culture

Developments in mammalian cell culture and recombinant technology has allowed for the production of recombinant proteins for use as human therapeutics. Mammalian cell culture is typically operated at the physiological temperature of 37°. However, recent research has shown that the use of low-temperature conditions (30-33°) as a platform for cell-culture results in changes in cell characteristics, such as increased specific productivity and extended periods of cell viability, that can potentially improve the production of recombinant proteins. Furthermore, many recent reports have focused on investigating low-temperature mammalian cell culture of Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells, one of the principal cell-lines used in industrial production of recombinant proteins. Exposure to low ambient temperatures exerts an external stress on all living cells, and elicits a cellular response. This cold-stress response has been observed in bacteria, plants and mammals, and is regulated at the gene level. The exact genes and molecular mechanisms involved in the cold-stress response in prokaryotes and plants have been well studied. There are also various reports that detail the modification of cold-stress genes to improve the characteristics of bacteria or plant cells at low temperatures. However, there is very limited information on mammalian cold-stress genes or the related pathways governing the mammalian cold-stress response. This project seeks to investigate and characterise cold-stress genes that are differentially expressed during low-temperature culture of CHO cells, and to relate them to the various changes in cell characteristics observed in low-temperature culture of CHO cells. The gene information can then be used to modify CHO cell-lines for improved performance in the production of recombinant proteins.