Foraging Behaviour and Landscape Utilisation by the Endangered Golden-Crowned Flying Fox (Acerodon jubatus), The Philippines

Species of Old World fruit-bats (family Pteropodidae) have been identified as the natural hosts of a number of novel and highly pathogenic viruses threatening livestock and human health. We used GPS data loggers to record the nocturnal foraging movements of Acerodon jubatus, the Golden-crowned flying fox in the Philippines to better understand the landscape utilisation of this iconic species, with the dual objectives of pre-empting disease emergence and supporting conservation management. Data loggers were deployed on eight of 54 A. jubatus (two males and six females) captured near Subic Bay on the Philippine island of Luzon between 22 November and 2 December 2010. Bodyweight ranged from 730 g to 1002 g, translating to a weight burden of 3–4% of bodyweight. Six of the eight loggers yielded useful data over 2–10 days, showing variability in the nature and range of individual bat movements. The majority of foraging locations were in closed forest and most were remote from evident human activity. Forty-six discrete foraging locations and five previously unrecorded roost locations were identified. Our findings indicate that foraging is not a random event, with the majority of bats exhibiting repetitious foraging movements night-to-night, that apparently intact forest provides the primary foraging resource, and that known roost locations substantially underestimate the true number (and location) of roosts. Our initial findings support policy and decision-making across perspectives including landscape management, species conservation, and potentially disease emergence.

Integrated pest management in cotton: exploiting behaviour-modifying (semiochemical) compounds for managing cotton pests

We review here research on semiochemicals for cotton pest management carried out in successive Cotton Co-operative Research Centres from 1998 to 2012. Australian cotton is now dominated by transgenic (Bt) varieties, which provide a strong platform for integrated pest management of key pests such as Helicoverpa spp., but new technologies are required to manage the development of resistance in Helicoverpa spp. to transgenic cotton and the problems posed by emerging and secondary pests, especially sucking insects. A long-range attractant for Helicoverpa moths, based on plant volatiles, has been commercialised as Magnet®. The product has substantial area-wide impacts on moth populations, and only limited effects on beneficial insects. Potential roles are being investigated for this product in resistance management of Helicoverpa spp. on transgenic cotton. Short-range, non-volatile compounds on organ surfaces of plants that do not support development of Helicoverpa spp. have been identified; these compounds deter feeding or oviposition, or are toxic to insect pests. One such product, Sero X®, is effective on Helicoverpa spp. and sucking pests such as whiteflies (Bemisia tabaci), green mirids (Creontiades dilutus), and other hemipteran insects, and is in the advanced stages of commercialisation.

Determinants of farmer retirement and farm succession in Finland

In the past decade, the Finnish agricultural sector has undergone rapid structural changes. The number of farms has decreased and the average farm size has increased when the number of farms transferred to new entrants has decreased. Part of the structural change in agriculture is manifested in early retirement programmes. In studying farmers exit behaviour in different countries, institutional differences, incentive programmes and constraints are found to matter. In Finland, farmers early retirement programmes were first introduced in 1974 and, during the last ten years, they have been carried out within the European Union framework for these programmes. The early retirement benefits are farmer specific and de-pend on the level of pension insurance the farmer has paid over his active farming years. In order to predict the future development of the agricultural sector, farmers have been frequently asked about their future plans and their plans for succession. However, the plans the farmers made for succession have been found to be time inconsistent. This study estimates the value of farmers stated succession plans in predicting revealed succession decisions. A stated succession plan exists when a farmer answers in a survey questionnaire that the farm is going to be transferred to a new entrant within a five-year period. The succession is revealed when the farm is transferred to a suc-cessor. Stated and revealed behaviour was estimated as a recursive Binomial Probit Model, which accounts for the censoring of the decision variables and controls for a potential correlation between the two equations. The results suggest that the succession plans, as stated by elderly farmers in the questionnaires, do not provide information that is significant and valuable in predicting true, com-pleted successions. Therefore, farmer exit should be analysed based on observed behaviour rather than on stated plans and intentions. As farm retirement plays a crucial role in determining the characteristics of structural change in agriculture, it is important to establish the factors which determine an exit from farming among eld-erly farmers and how off-farm income and income losses affect their exit choices. In this study, the observed choice of pension scheme by elderly farmers was analysed by a bivariate probit model. Despite some variations in significance and the effects of each factor, the ages of the farmer and spouse, the age and number of potential successors, farm size, income loss when retiring and the location of the farm together with the production line were found to be the most important determi-nants of early retirement and the transfer or closure of farms. Recently, the labour status of the spouse has been found to contribute significantly to individual retirement decisions. In this study, the effect of spousal retirement and economic incentives related to the timing of a farming couple s early retirement decision were analysed with a duration model. The results suggest that an expected pension in particular advances farm transfers. It was found that on farms operated by a couple, both early retirement and farm succession took place more often than on farms operated by a single person. However, the existence of a spouse delayed the timing of early retirement. Farming couples were found to co-ordinate their early retirement decisions when they both exit through agricultural retirement programmes, but such a co-ordination did not exist when one of the spouses retired under other pension schemes. Besides changes in the agricultural structure, the share and amount of off-farm income of a farm family s total income has also increased. In the study, the effect of off-farm income on farmers retirement decisions, in addition to other financial factors, was analysed. The unknown parameters were first estimated by a switching-type multivariate probit model and then by the simulated maxi-mum likelihood (SML) method, controlling for farmer specific fixed effects and serial correlation of the errors. The results suggest that elderly farmers off-farm income is a significant determinant in a farmer s choice to exit and close down the farm. However, off-farm income only has a short term effect on structural changes in agriculture since it does not significantly contribute to the timing of farm successions.

Valuation of reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland : Choice experiment with attention to heterogeneous and discontinuous preferences and respondent uncertainty

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is a serious problem. This thesis estimates the benefit to Finns from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland, the most eutrophied part of the Baltic Sea, by applying the choice experiment method, which belongs to the family of stated preference methods. Because stated preference methods have been subject to criticism, e.g., due to their hypothetical survey context, this thesis contributes to the discussion by studying two anomalies that may lead to biased welfare estimates: respondent uncertainty and preference discontinuity. The former refers to the difficulty of stating one s preferences for an environmental good in a hypothetical context. The latter implies a departure from the continuity assumption of conventional consumer theory, which forms the basis for the method and the analysis. In the three essays of the thesis, discrete choice data are analyzed with the multinomial logit and mixed logit models. On average, Finns are willing to contribute to the water quality improvement. The probability for willingness increases with residential or recreational contact with the gulf, higher than average income, younger than average age, and the absence of dependent children in the household. On average, for Finns the relatively most important characteristic of water quality is water clarity followed by the desire for fewer occurrences of blue-green algae. For future nutrient reduction scenarios, the annual mean household willingness to pay estimates range from 271 to 448 and the aggregate welfare estimates for Finns range from 28 billion to 54 billion euros, depending on the model and the intensity of the reduction. Out of the respondents (N=726), 72.1% state in a follow-up question that they are either Certain or Quite certain about their answer when choosing the preferred alternative in the experiment. Based on the analysis of other follow-up questions and another sample (N=307), 10.4% of the respondents are identified as potentially having discontinuous preferences. In relation to both anomalies, the respondent- and questionnaire-specific variables are found among the underlying causes and a departure from standard analysis may improve the model fit and the efficiency of estimates, depending on the chosen modeling approach. The introduction of uncertainty about the future state of the Gulf increases the acceptance of the valuation scenario which may indicate an increased credibility of a proposed scenario. In conclusion, modeling preference heterogeneity is an essential part of the analysis of discrete choice data. The results regarding uncertainty in stating one s preferences and non-standard choice behavior are promising: accounting for these anomalies in the analysis may improve the precision of the estimates of benefit from reduced eutrophication in the Gulf of Finland.

Validity of a self-report recall tool for estimating sedentary behaviour in adults

BACKGROUND Sedentary behavior is continuing to emerge as an important target for health promotion. The purpose of this study was to determine the validity of a self-report use of time recall tool, the Multimedia Activity Recall for Children and Adults (MARCA) in estimating time spent sitting/lying, compared with a device-based measure. METHODS Fifty-eight participants (48% female, [mean±standard deviation] 28±7.4 years of age, 23.9±3.05 kg/m2) wore an activPAL device for 24-h and the following day completed the MARCA. Pearson correlation coefficients (r) were used to analyse convergent validity of the adult MARCA compared with activPAL estimates of total sitting/lying time. Agreement was examined using Bland-Altman plots. RESULTS According to activPAL estimates, participants spent 10.4 hr/day [standard deviation (SD)=2.06] sitting or lying down while awake. The correlation between MARCA and activPAL estimates of total sit/lie time was r=0.77 (95% confidence interval = 0.64-0.86; p<0.001). Bland-Altman analyses revealed a mean bias of +0.59 hr/day with moderately wide limits of agreement (-2.35 hours to +3.53 hr/day). CONCLUSIONS This study found a moderate to strong agreement between the adult MARCA and the activPAL, suggesting that the MARCA is an appropriate tool for the measurement of time spent sitting or lying down in an adult population.

Water-ethanol mixtures by molecular dynamics and x-ray Compton scattering

Water-ethanol mixtures are commonly used in industry and house holds. However, quite surprisingly their molecular-level structure is still not completely understood. In particular, there is evidence that the local intermolecular geometries depend significantly on the concentration. The aim of this study was to gain information on the molecular-level structures of water-ethanol mixtures by two computational methods. The methods are classical molecular dynamics (MD), where the movement of molecules can be studied, and x-ray Compton scattering, in which the scattering cross section is sensitive to the electron momentum density. Firstly, the water-ethanol mixtures were studied with MD simulations, with the mixture concentration ranging from 0 to 100%. For the simulations well-established force fields were used for the water and ethanol molecules (TIP4P and OPLS-AA, respectively). Moreover, two models were used for ethanol, rigid and non-rigid. In the rigid model the intramolecular bond lengths are fixed, whereas in the non-rigid model the lengths are determined by harmonic potentials. Secondly, mixtures with three different concentrations employing both ethanol models were studied by calculating the experimentally observable x-ray quantity, the Compton profile. In the MD simulations a slight underestimation in the density was observed as compared to experiment. Furthermore, a positive excess of hydrogen bonding with water molecules and a negative one with ethanol was quantified. Also, the mixture was found more structured when the ethanol concentration was higher. Negligible differences in the results were found between the two ethanol models. In contrast, in the Compton scattering results a notable difference between the ethanol models was observed. For the rigid model the Compton profiles were similar for all the concentrations, but for the non-rigid model they were distinct. This leads to two possibilities of how the mixing occurs. Either the mixing is similar in all concentrations (as suggested by the rigid model) or the mixing changes for different concentrations (as suggested by the non-rigid model). Either way, this study shows that the choice of the force field is essential in the microscopic structure formation in the MD simulations. When the sources of uncertainty in the calculated Compton profiles were analyzed, it was found that more statistics needs to be collected to reduce the statistical uncertainty in the final results. The obtained Compton scattering results can be considered somewhat preliminary, but clearly indicative of the behaviour of the water-ethanol mixtures when the force field is modified. The next step is to collect more statistics and compare the results with experimental data to decide which ethanol model describes the mixture better. This way, valuable information on the microscopic structure of water-ethanol mixtures can be found. In addition, information on the force fields in the MD simulations and on the ability of the MD simulations to reproduce the microscopic structure of binary liquids is obtained.

Experimental and numerical investigation of the behaviour of CFRP strengthened CHS beams subjected to bending

This paper presents the results of an experimental and numerical program to investigate the circular hollow section (CHS) beams, strengthened using Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) sheets. The circular hollow shaped steel beams bonded with different CFRP layer orientations were tested under four-point bending. The mid-span deflection, service load and failure load were recorded. The LHL (where L, first inner longitudinal layer, H, second hoop layer and L, third outer longitudinal layer) and LLH (where L, first inner longitudinal layer, L, second longitudinal layer and H, third outer hoop layer) layer oriented strengthened beams perform slightly better than HHL (where H, first inner hoop layer, H, second hoop layer and L, third outer longitudinal layer) layer oriented strengthened beams. The LHL and LLH layer oriented treated beams showed very similar structural behaviour. Numerical analyses were then conducted on the CFRP strengthened steel CHS beams. The validity of the models has been assessed by comparing the failure loads and mid-span deflections. The effects of various parameters such as bond length, section types, tensile modulus of CFRP, adhesive layer thickness and adhesive types have been studied.

Location and scale mixtures of Gaussians with flexible tail behaviour: Properties, inference and application to multivariate clustering

The family of location and scale mixtures of Gaussians has the ability to generate a number of flexible distributional forms. The family nests as particular cases several important asymmetric distributions like the Generalized Hyperbolic distribution. The Generalized Hyperbolic distribution in turn nests many other well known distributions such as the Normal Inverse Gaussian. In a multivariate setting, an extension of the standard location and scale mixture concept is proposed into a so called multiple scaled framework which has the advantage of allowing different tail and skewness behaviours in each dimension with arbitrary correlation between dimensions. Estimation of the parameters is provided via an EM algorithm and extended to cover the case of mixtures of such multiple scaled distributions for application to clustering. Assessments on simulated and real data confirm the gain in degrees of freedom and flexibility in modelling data of varying tail behaviour and directional shape.

Computational methods for Bayesian model choice

In this note, we shortly survey some recent approaches on the approximation of the Bayes factor used in Bayesian hypothesis testing and in Bayesian model choice. In particular, we reassess importance sampling, harmonic mean sampling, and nested sampling from a unified perspective.

Design of laterally loaded piles in clays based on cone penetration test data: a reliability-based approach

The behaviour of laterally loaded piles is considerably influenced by the uncertainties in soil properties. Hence probabilistic models for assessment of allowable lateral load are necessary. Cone penetration test (CPT) data are often used to determine soil strength parameters, whereby the allowable lateral load of the pile is computed. In the present study, the maximum lateral displacement and moment of the pile are obtained based on the coefficient of subgrade reaction approach, considering the nonlinear soil behaviour in undrained clay. The coefficient of subgrade reaction is related to the undrained shear strength of soil, which can be obtained from CPT data. The soil medium is modelled as a one-dimensional random field along the depth, and it is described by the standard deviation and scale of fluctuation of the undrained shear strength of soil. Inherent soil variability, measurement uncertainty and transformation uncertainty are taken into consideration. The statistics of maximum lateral deflection and moment are obtained using the first-order, second-moment technique. Hasofer-Lind reliability indices for component and system failure criteria, based on the allowable lateral displacement and moment capacity of the pile section, are evaluated. The geotechnical database from the Konaseema site in India is used as a case example. It is shown that the reliability-based design approach for pile foundations, considering the spatial variability of soil, permits a rational choice of allowable lateral loads.

Behaviour of ultrasonic velocities in amorphous Se90Ge10 and Se85Ge15 alloys near their glass transition

Precise measurements of 10 MHz frequency longitudinal and shear wave velocities are reported in amorphous SeGe alloys near their glass transition temperature T g . There is a sharp decrease of the velocities near T g , but the reduction in velocities appears smaller than expected.

Ecology, Behaviour and Control of Apis cerana with a Focus on Relevance to the Australian Incursion

Apis cerana Fabricius is endemic to most of Asia, where it has been used for honey production and pollination services for thousands of years. Since the 1980s, A. cerana has been introduced to areas outside its natural range (namely New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Australia), which sparked fears that it may become a pest species that could compete with, and negatively affect, native Australian fauna and flora, as well as commercially kept A. mellifera and commercial crops. This literature review is a response to these concerns and reviews what is known about the ecology and behaviour of A. cerana. Differences between temperate and tropical strains of A. cerana are reviewed, as are A. cerana pollination, competition between A. cerana and A. mellifera, and the impact and control strategies of introduced A. cerana, with a particular focus on gaps of current knowledge.

Patient preferences for receiving remote communication support for lifestyle physical activity behaviour change: The perspective of patients with musculoskeletal disorders from three hospital services

This study examined patients’ preference ratings for receiving support via remote communication to increase their lifestyle physical activity. Methods People with musculoskeletal disorders ( n=221 of 296 eligible) accessing one of three clinics provided preference ratings for “how much” they wanted to receive physical activity support via five potential communication modalities. The five ratings were generated on a horizontal analogue rating scale (0 represented “not at all”; 10 represented “very much”). Results Most (n=155, 70%) desired referral to a physical activity promoting intervention. “Print and post” communications had the highest median preference rating (7/10), followed by email and telephone (both 5/10), text messaging (1/10), and private Internet-based social network messages (0/10). Desire to be referred was associated with higher preference for printed materials (coefficient = 2.739, p<0.001), telephone calls (coefficient = 3.000, p<0.001), and email (coefficient = 2.059, p=0.02). Older age was associated with lower preference for email (coefficient = −0.100, p<0.001), texting (coefficient = −0.096, p<0.001), and social network messages (coefficient = −0.065, p<0.001). Conclusion Patients desiring support to be physically active indicated preferences for interventions with communication via print, email, or telephone calls.