A Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network framework for passenger facilitation modelling

This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system. A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa. A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an R2 goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 h test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including causal analysis and ‘what-if’ analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.

A framework for model integration and holistic modelling of socio-technical systems

This paper presents a layered framework for the purposes of integrating different Socio-Technical Systems (STS) models and perspectives into a whole-of-systems model. Holistic modelling plays a critical role in the engineering of STS due to the interplay between social and technical elements within these systems and resulting emergent behaviour. The framework decomposes STS models into components, where each component is either a static object, dynamic object or behavioural object. Based on existing literature, a classification of the different elements that make up STS, whether it be a social, technical or a natural environment element, is developed; each object can in turn be classified according to the STS elements it represents. Using the proposed framework, it is possible to systematically decompose models to an extent such that points of interface can be identified and the contextual factors required in transforming the component of one model to interface into another is obtained. Using an airport inbound passenger facilitation process as a case study socio-technical system, three different models are analysed: a Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) model, Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) model and an Agent Based Model (ABM). It is found that the framework enables the modeller to identify non-trivial interface points such as between the spatial interactions of an ABM and the causal reasoning of a HQBN, and between the process activity representation of a BPMN and simulated behavioural performance in a HQBN. Such a framework is a necessary enabler in order to integrate different modelling approaches in understanding and managing STS.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

Tactics for teaching evidence-based practice : improving self-efficacy in finding and appraising evidence in a master's evidence-based practice unit

Universal application of evidence-based practice (EBP) is far from a reality with many clinicians feeling ill equipped to adopt this approach in their clinical practice (Melnyk Fineout- Overholt, Feinstein, Sadler, & Green-Hernandez, 2008; Sherriff, Wallis, & Chaboyer, 2007) and, thus, to be an intelligent consumer of evidence (Ciliska, 2005). While recognizing the benefit of EBP, many health professionals have low confidence in their skills for using evidence in clinical settings (Nagy, Lumby, McKinley, &Macfarlane, 2001). Educational initiatives are often recommended for promoting adoption of EBP with much of the focus being on providing knowledge of associated processes. Levin, Melnyk, Fineout-Overholt, Barnes, and Vetter (2011) demonstrated that providing knowledge of EBP process alone does not increase clinicians’ confidence in their ability to apply EBP to their practice...

Applying for funding is the worst part of my job

That’s what one researcher told us when we asked them about applying for NHMRC Project Grant funding. Others said that applying for funding had made them ill, lost them friends, ruined Christmas and caused arguments with friends and family. What makes applying for funding so bad? We’ve tried to summarise the problems with the system in the diagram above. This is based on our group’s four years of research into the funding process. Some of the arrows are based on evidence from our surveys (Survey 1, Survey 2), others are based on anecdote or experience and so maybe wrong. Please let me know if I’ve missed an arrow or an issue.

Regional aviation and economic growth : cointegration and causality analysis in Australia

Air transport is a critical link to regional, rural and remote communities in Australia. Air services provide important economic and social benefits but very little research has been done on assessing the value of regional aviation. This research provides the first empirical evidence that there is short and long run causality between regional aviation and economic growth. The authors analysed 88 regional airports in Australia over a period of 1985–86 to 2010–11 to determine the catalytic impacts of regional air transport on regional economic growth. The analysis was conducted using annual data related to total airport passenger movements – for the level of airport activity, and real aggregate taxable income – to represent economic growth. A significant bi-directional relationship was established: airports have an impact on regional economic growth and the economy directly impacts regional air transport. The economic significance of regional air transport confirms the importance of the airport as infrastructure for regional councils and the need for them to maintain and develop local airports. Funding should be targeted at airports directly to support regional development.

Bayesian networks for information synthesis in complex systems

This thesis introduces a method of applying Bayesian Networks to combine information from a range of data sources for effective decision support systems. It develops a set of techniques in development, validation, visualisation, and application of Complex Systems models, with a working demonstration in an Australian airport environment. The methods presented here have provided a modelling approach that produces highly flexible, informative and applicable interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions. These end-to-end techniques are applied to the development of model based dashboards to support operators and decision makers in the multi-stakeholder airport environment. They provide highly flexible and informative interpretations and confidence in these interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions.

Addressing barriers to help-seeking behaviour through M-mental health services : a social marketing perspective

Although seeking help for mental ill-health is beneficial, the majority of persons afflicted do not access available help services. Young adults (16-24 years old) in particular have the highest prevalence of mental health problems and the lowest rate of help-seeking behaviour. Key barriers to help-seeking for young adults, including cost, privacy concerns, inconvenience, access to health professionals and interpersonal interaction, appear to derive from the face-to-face method of service delivery traditionally used to distribute mental health services. Social marketing employs the principle of value exchange, whereby consumers will choose a behaviour in exchange for receiving valued benefits and/or a reduction in key barriers, to achieve behavioural goals for social good. The appropriation of mobile digital technology to deliver self-help mental health services may reduce the current barriers to help seeking, however, extant literature offers no empirical support for this proposition. Our research addresses this gap by examining the perceptions of young adults regarding M-mental health services. Depth interviews were undertaken with 15 young adults (18-24 years old), who had self-reported mild-moderate stress, anxiety or depression. The data were thematically analysed with the assistance of Nvivo. The findings reveal M-mental health services reduce the barriers to accessing face-to-face help services to a large extent. However, they also present their own barriers to help-seeking that must be considered by social marketers, including negligible cost expectations and service efficacy concerns. Overall, this study highlights the potential of M-mental health services to encourage early intervention and help-seeking behaviour as part of a social marketing strategy to address mental illness in young adults.

Competition and its influence on consumer decision making in social marketing

This paper extends the largely conceptual understanding of competition in social marketing by empirically investigating, from a consumer perspective, the nature of competition and its influence on decision making at the individual level. Two phases of qualitative inquiry in Australia, comprising 30 and 20 semi-structured interviews respectively, examined the role of competition in young adults’ decision to adopt and maintain help-seeking for mental ill-health. The findings from thematic analysis suggest that competition operates at both the behavioural and goal level to influence consumers’ decision to perform behaviour and that the types of competition in operation may vary from the adoption to the maintenance of behaviour. The findings are integrated into a framework that social marketers could employ to identify, analyse and address competition.

The "virtuous circle": A case study examining the case for better embedding of Work Integrated Learning approaches into university journalism cirriculums

This paper explores the potential to focus and develop the approach to Work Integrated Learning (WIL)in journalism courses where this method is seen as a core principal of the program. It argues that, in many cases, such approaches are ill-defined and underdeveloped, a fact that weakens the possibility for strong course outcomes. It then examines the particular case of QUT coverage of the 2014 G20 Leader's summit to illustrate how an all-of-course WIL approach to G20 coverage-coupled with a tailored interaction with the library-might provide an enhanced student experience as well as unlock the potential for greater knowledge transfer between university journalism courses and industry partners.

Analysis of passenger group behaviour and its impact on passenger flow using an agent-based model

Group interaction within crowds is a common phenomenon and has great influence on pedestrian behaviour. This paper investigates the impact of passenger group dynamics using an agent-based simulation method for the outbound passenger process at airports. Unlike most passenger-flow models that treat passengers as individual agents, the proposed model additionally incorporates their group dynamics as well. The simulation compares passenger behaviour at airport processes and discretionary services under different group formations. Results from experiments (both qualitative and quantitative) show that incorporating group attributes, in particular, the interactions with fellow travellers and wavers can have significant influence on passengers activity preference as well as the performance and utilisation of services in airport terminals. The model also provides a convenient way to investigate the effectiveness of airport space design and service allocations, which can contribute to positive passenger experiences. The model was created using AnyLogic software and its parameters were initialised using recent research data published in the literature.

The future passenger experience: A shift from physical to virtual design

The importance of passenger experience in aviation has become well understood in the last several years. It is now generally accepted that the provision of good passenger experience is not an option, but a necessity, from an aviation profitability perspective. In this paper, we paint a picture of the future passenger experience by consolidating a number of industry and research perspectives. Using the future passenger experience as a starting point, we explore the components needed to enable this future vision. From this bottom-up approach, we identify the need to resolve data formatting and data ownership issues. The resolution of these data integration issues is necessary to enable the seamless future travel experience that is envisioned by the aviation industry. By looking at the passenger experience from this bottom-up, data centric perspective, we identify a potential shift in the way that future passenger terminals will be designed. Whereas currently the design of terminals is largely an architectural practice, in the near future, the design of the terminal building may become more of a virtual technology practice. This of course will pose a new set of challenges to designers of airport terminal environments.

Deconstructing expected passenger experience in airports

The effect of passenger satisfaction on airport profitability has been widely acknowledged in the aviation industry. As a result, there has been much attention directed towards developing a deeper understanding of the factors that influence the passenger experience. In this paper, we explore passenger experience from a novel perspective - that of the activities expected to be undertaken by passengers while in the airport terminal building. Using the Taxonomy of Passenger Experience (TOPA) as our framework, we look at the pre-travel interview data of 48 participants. The results of our analysis are used to construct an activity-centred account of the expected passenger experience for international departures. Our exploration of the expected passenger experienced revealed that not all of the TOPA activities have an equal impact on the passengers' expected experience. The processing, consumptive, preparatory and queuing activity groups featured most prominently in passengers' accounts of their upcoming airport experiences. Of these, the preparatory category was found to have the most direct impact on passenger satisfaction. Additionally, our analysis indicated that utilising queue time to prepare passengers for upcoming processing activities could have a positive effect on both satisfaction and processing efficiency. A further outcome of this research was the observation that "shopping" did not form a part of the expected experience of any of the interviewed participants. The outcomes of this study can be used by airports to assist in the management of passengers' expected experience in the terminal building. As passenger expectations and passenger satisfaction are intrinsically linked, understanding which activities have the most impact on satisfaction provides a basis from which alternate design choices can be evaluated when constructing, or fine-tuning, airport terminal designs.

Non-Therapeutic Medication Omissions: Incidence and Predictors at an Australian Hospital

Background: The inconsistent definition of non-therapeutic medication omissions, under-reporting, and a poor understanding of their associated factors hamper efforts to improve medication administration practices. Aim: To examine the incidence of non-therapeutic medication omissions among acutely ill medical and surgical adult patients; and to identify the patient-, drug- and system-related predictors of these omissions. Method: A medication chart audit of 288 acutely ill adult medical and surgical patients admitted to 4 target wards (2 surgical and 2 medical) at an Australian hospital. Patients admitted to these wards from December 2008 to November 2009, with at least one regularly prescribed medication, were eligible. The sample was stratified according to gender, season and ward. A medication chart audit identified medication omissions, and data were collected on gender, age, length of stay, comorbidities, medication history and clinical pharmacy review. Results: Of the 288 medication charts audited, 220 (75%) had one or more medication omissions. Of the 15 020 medication administration episodes, there were 1687 omissions, resulting in an omission rate per medication administration episode of 11%. Analgesics and aperients were the most frequently omitted medications, with failure to sign the medication record and patient refusal, the main reasons for omission. Female gender (p < 0.001) and the number of medication administration episodes (p < 0.001) were statistically significant predictors of non-therapeutic medication omissions. Conclusion: The high incidence of medication omissions suggests there is need for an agreed definition of medication omission and its inclusion as a reportable incident. Increasing medication reconciliation via implementation of the Medication Management Plan may also reduce the opportunity for error. J Pharm Pract Res 2011; 41: 188-91.

Reggae borderzones, reggae graveyards: Bob Marley fandom in Bali

The road from Bali’s international airport to the island’s most renowned tourist area, Kuta Beach, leads past a number of establishments claiming affiliation to reggae music and Rastafarianism in large, appropriately coloured billboards. A sign outside a tee shirt shop bears the words RASTA MANIA within a green, yellow and red border, and a stick figure caricaturing negritude, the logo of this clothing label. In the window display hangs a tee shirt, and upon it Bob Marley’s wizened face. His lips pinch a cone-shaped spliff, and he squints behind a veil of airbrushed smoke. A leanto sign on the sidewalk outside Apache Bar announce REGGAE BANDS NIGHTLY. This barn of coconut wood and thatch nestles behind Wendy’s Ice Cream Parlour and Chi Chi’s Mexican Bar. Its timber walls emulate a rustic, spaghetti Western aesthetic and are adorned with portraits of native Americans. In addition to the reggae bands, nightly, Apache bar unites young Japanese women with local ‘guides’.2