Exploring the impact of CMIP5 model biases on the simulation of North Atlantic decadal variability

Instrumental observations, palaeo-proxies, and climate models suggest significant decadal variability within the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASPG). However, a poorly sampled observational record and a diversity of model behaviours mean that the precise nature and mechanisms of this variability are unclear. Here, we analyse an exceptionally large multi-model ensemble of 42 present-generation climate models to test whether NASPG mean state biases systematically affect the representation of decadal variability. Temperature and salinity biases in the Labrador Sea co-vary and influence whether density variability is controlled by temperature or salinity variations. Ocean horizontal resolution is a good predictor of the biases and the location of the dominant dynamical feedbacks within the NASPG. However, we find no link to the spectral characteristics of the variability. Our results suggest that the mean state and mechanisms of variability within the NASPG are not independent. This represents an important caveat for decadal predictions using anomaly-assimilation methods.

Origin and impact of initialisation shocks in coupled atmosphere-ocean forecasts

Current methods for initialising coupled atmosphere-ocean forecasts often rely on the use of separate atmosphere and ocean analyses, the combination of which can leave the coupled system imbalanced at the beginning of the forecast, potentially accelerating the development of errors. Using a series of experiments with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts coupled system, the magnitude and extent of these so-called initialisation shocks is quantified, and their impact on forecast skill measured. It is found that forecasts initialised by separate ocean and atmospheric analyses do exhibit initialisation shocks in lower atmospheric temperature, when compared to forecasts initialised using a coupled data assimilation method. These shocks result in as much as a doubling of root-mean-square error on the first day of the forecast in some regions, and in increases that are sustained for the duration of the 10-day forecasts performed here. However, the impacts of this choice of initialisation on forecast skill, assessed using independent datasets, were found to be negligible, at least over the limited period studied. Larger initialisation shocks are found to follow a change in either the atmospheric or ocean model component between the analysis and forecast phases: changes in the ocean component can lead to sea surface temperature shocks of more than 0.5K in some equatorial regions during the first day of the forecast. Implications for the development of coupled forecast systems, particularly with respect to coupled data assimilation methods, are discussed.

Efficient incorporation of channel cross-section geometry uncertainty into regional and global scale flood inundation models

This paper investigates the challenge of representing structural differences in river channel cross-section geometry for regional to global scale river hydraulic models and the effect this can have on simulations of wave dynamics. Classically, channel geometry is defined using data, yet at larger scales the necessary information and model structures do not exist to take this approach. We therefore propose a fundamentally different approach where the structural uncertainty in channel geometry is represented using a simple parameterization, which could then be estimated through calibration or data assimilation. This paper first outlines the development of a computationally efficient numerical scheme to represent generalised channel shapes using a single parameter, which is then validated using a simple straight channel test case and shown to predict wetted perimeter to within 2% for the channels tested. An application to the River Severn, UK is also presented, along with an analysis of model sensitivity to channel shape, depth and friction. The channel shape parameter was shown to improve model simulations of river level, particularly for more physically plausible channel roughness and depth parameter ranges. Calibrating channel Manning’s coefficient in a rectangular channel provided similar water level simulation accuracy in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency to a model where friction and shape or depth were calibrated. However, the calibrated Manning coefficient in the rectangular channel model was ~2/3 greater than the likely physically realistic value for this reach and this erroneously slowed wave propagation times through the reach by several hours. Therefore, for large scale models applied in data sparse areas, calibrating channel depth and/or shape may be preferable to assuming a rectangular geometry and calibrating friction alone.

The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

A basic data requirement of a river flood inundation model is a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of the reach being studied. The scale at which modeling is required determines the accuracy required of the DTM. For modeling floods in urban areas, a high resolution DTM such as that produced by airborne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) is most useful, and large parts of many developed countries have now been mapped using LiDAR. In remoter areas, it is possible to model flooding on a larger scale using a lower resolution DTM, and in the near future the DTM of choice is likely to be that derived from the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM). A variable-resolution global DTM obtained by combining existing high and low resolution data sets would be useful for modeling flood water dynamics globally, at high resolution wherever possible and at lower resolution over larger rivers in remote areas. A further important data resource used in flood modeling is the flood extent, commonly derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. Flood extents become more useful if they are intersected with the DTM, when water level observations (WLOs) at the flood boundary can be estimated at various points along the river reach. To illustrate the utility of such a global DTM, two examples of recent research involving WLOs at opposite ends of the spatial scale are discussed. The first requires high resolution spatial data, and involves the assimilation of WLOs from a real sequence of high resolution SAR images into a flood model to update the model state with observations over time, and to estimate river discharge and model parameters, including river bathymetry and friction. The results indicate the feasibility of such an Earth Observation-based flood forecasting system. The second example is at a larger scale, and uses SAR-derived WLOs to improve the lower-resolution TanDEM-X DEM in the area covered by the flood extents. The resulting reduction in random height error is significant.

Twin experiments with the equivalent weights particle filter and HadCM3

This paper investigates the use of a particle filter for data assimilation with a full scale coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Synthetic twin experiments are performed to assess the performance of the equivalent weights filter in such a high-dimensional system. Artificial 2-dimensional sea surface temperature fields are used as observational data every day. Results are presented for different values of the free parameters in the method. Measures of the performance of the filter are root mean square errors, trajectories of individual variables in the model and rank histograms. Filter degeneracy is not observed and the performance of the filter is shown to depend on the ability to keep maximum spread in the ensemble.

The influence of shade and organic fertilizer treatments on the physiology and establishment of Theobroma cacao clones

Aims: This experiment aimed to determine whether the soil application of organic fertilizers can help the establishment of cacao and whether shade alters its response to fertilizers. Study Design: The 1.6 ha experiment was conducted over a period of one crop year (between April 2007 and March 2008) at the Cocoa Research Institute of Ghana. It involved four cacao genotypes (T 79/501, PA 150, P 30 [POS] and SCA 6), three shade levels (‘light’, ‘medium’ and ‘heavy’) and two fertilizer treatments (‘no fertilizer’, and ‘140 kg/ha of cacao pod husk ash (CPHA) plus poultry manure at 1,800 kg/ha). The experiment was designed as a split-plot with the cacao genotypes as the main plot factor and shade x fertilizer combinations as the sub-plots. Methodology: Gliricidia sepium and plantains (Musa sapientum) were planted in different arrangements to create the three temporary shade regimes for the cacao. Data were collected on temperature and relative humidity of the shade environments, initial soil nutrients, soil moisture, leaf N, P and K+ contents, survival, photo synthesis and growth of test plants. Results: The genotypes P 30 [POS] and SCA 6 showed lower stomatal conductance under non-limiting conditions. In the rainy seasons, plants under light shade had the highest CO2 assimilation rates. However, in the dry season, plants under increased shade recorded greater photosynthetic rates (P = .03). A significant shade x fertilizer interaction (P = .001) on photosynthesis in the dry season showed that heavier shade increases the benefits that young cacao gets from fertilizer application in that season. Conversely, shade should be reduced during the wet seasons to minimize light limitation to assimilation. Conclusion: Under ideal weather conditions young cacao exhibits genetic variability on stomatal conductance. Also, to optimize plant response to fertilizer application shade must be adjusted taking the prevailing weather condition into account.

Theoretical insight into diagnosing observation error correlations using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

To improve the quantity and impact of observations used in data assimilation it is necessary to take into account the full, potentially correlated, observation error statistics. A number of methods for estimating correlated observation errors exist, but a popular method is a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. The accuracy of the results it yields is unknown as the diagnostic is sensitive to the difference between the exact background and exact observation error covariances and those that are chosen for use within the assimilation. It has often been stated in the literature that the results using this diagnostic are only valid when the background and observation error correlation length scales are well separated. Here we develop new theory relating to the diagnostic. For observations on a 1D periodic domain we are able to the show the effect of changes in the assumed error statistics used in the assimilation on the estimated observation error covariance matrix. We also provide bounds for the estimated observation error variance and eigenvalues of the estimated observation error correlation matrix. We demonstrate that it is still possible to obtain useful results from the diagnostic when the background and observation error length scales are similar. In general, our results suggest that when correlated observation errors are treated as uncorrelated in the assimilation, the diagnostic will underestimate the correlation length scale. We support our theoretical results with simple illustrative examples. These results have potential use for interpreting the derived covariances estimated using an operational system.

Orexin restores aging-related brown adipose tissue dysfunction in male mice

The aging process causes an increase in percent body fat, but the mechanism remains unclear. In the present study we examined the impact of aging on brown adipose tissue (BAT) thermogenic activity as potential cause for the increase in adiposity. We show that aging is associated with interscapular BAT morphologic abnormalities and thermogenic dysfunction. In vitro experiments revealed that brown adipocyte differentiation is defective in aged mice. Interscapular brown tissue in aged mice is progressively populated by adipocytes bearing white morphologic characteristics. Aged mice fail to mobilize intracellular fuel reserves from brown adipocytes and exhibit deficiency in homeothermy. Our results suggest a role for orexin (OX) signaling in the regulation of thermogenesis during aging. Brown fat dysfunction and age-related assimilation of fat mass were accelerated in mice in which OX-producing neurons were ablated. Conversely, OX injections in old mice increased multilocular morphology, increased core body temperature, improved cold tolerance, and reduced adiposity. These results argue that BAT can be targeted for interventions to reverse age-associated increase in fat mass.

Letters in cognitive analytic therapy: The patient's experience

Patient perspectives on how therapeutic letters contributed to their experience of cognitive analytic therapy (CAT) were investigated. Eight patients took part in semistructured interviews. A grounded, thematic analysis of their accounts suggested four general processes. First, letters offered a tangible, lasting framework for the assimilation of a new perspective about themselves and their relationships and facilitated coping with a complex range of emotions and risks this awareness required. Second, they demonstrated therapists’ commitment to patients’ growth. Third, they helped to teach participants about the therapy process as an example of an interpersonal exchange. Fourth, they helped participants consider how they wished to share personal information. These data offer a more complex understanding of this standard CAT intervention. Although some findings are consistent with CAT theory, the range of emotional dilemmas associated with letters has not received specific attention. Clinical implications are discussed.

Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations

Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit various biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT via a statistical bias correction technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The bias correction acts to reduce the spread in projections of SIT and reveals the significant contributions of climate internal variability in the first half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from mid-century onwards. The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other variables to reduce spread in climate projections more generally.

Assessing the performance of dynamical trajectory estimates

Estimating trajectories and parameters of dynamical systems from observations is a problem frequently encountered in various branches of science; geophysicists for example refer to this problem as data assimilation. Unlike as in estimation problems with exchangeable observations, in data assimilation the observations cannot easily be divided into separate sets for estimation and validation; this creates serious problems, since simply using the same observations for estimation and validation might result in overly optimistic performance assessments. To circumvent this problem, a result is presented which allows us to estimate this optimism, thus allowing for a more realistic performance assessment in data assimilation. The presented approach becomes particularly simple for data assimilation methods employing a linear error feedback (such as synchronization schemes, nudging, incremental 3DVAR and 4DVar, and various Kalman filter approaches). Numerical examples considering a high gain observer confirm the theory.

A Variance-Minimizing Filter for Large-Scale Applications

A truly variance-minimizing filter is introduced and its per for mance is demonstrated with the Korteweg– DeV ries (KdV) equation and with a multilayer quasigeostrophic model of the ocean area around South Africa. It is recalled that Kalman-like filters are not variance minimizing for nonlinear model dynamics and that four - dimensional variational data assimilation (4DV AR)-like methods relying on per fect model dynamics have dif- ficulty with providing error estimates. The new method does not have these drawbacks. In fact, it combines advantages from both methods in that it does provide error estimates while automatically having balanced states after analysis, without extra computations. It is based on ensemble or Monte Carlo integrations to simulate the probability density of the model evolution. When obser vations are available, the so-called importance resampling algorithm is applied. From Bayes’ s theorem it follows that each ensemble member receives a new weight dependent on its ‘ ‘distance’ ’ t o the obser vations. Because the weights are strongly var ying, a resampling of the ensemble is necessar y. This resampling is done such that members with high weights are duplicated according to their weights, while low-weight members are largely ignored. In passing, it is noted that data assimilation is not an inverse problem by nature, although it can be for mulated that way . Also, it is shown that the posterior variance can be larger than the prior if the usual Gaussian framework is set aside. However , i n the examples presented here, the entropy of the probability densities is decreasing. The application to the ocean area around South Africa, gover ned by strongly nonlinear dynamics, shows that the method is working satisfactorily . The strong and weak points of the method are discussed and possible improvements are proposed.

Aspects of particle filtering in high-dimensional spaces

Nonlinear data assimilation is high on the agenda in all fields of the geosciences as with ever increasing model resolution and inclusion of more physical (biological etc.) processes, and more complex observation operators the data-assimilation problem becomes more and more nonlinear. The suitability of particle filters to solve the nonlinear data assimilation problem in high-dimensional geophysical problems will be discussed. Several existing and new schemes will be presented and it is shown that at least one of them, the Equivalent-Weights Particle Filter, does indeed beat the curse of dimensionality and provides a way forward to solve the problem of nonlinear data assimilation in high-dimensional systems.