An Autoregressive Conditional Filtering Process to remove Intraday Seasonal Volatility and its Application to Testing the Noisy Rational Expectations Model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

Scope & nature of young sudden cardiac death in Newfoundland & Labrador

Introduction: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young people (ages 2-40) is a tragedy for families and communities alike. It has multiple causes, one of which is an underlying genetic arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy. A study from Ontario (ON) using a 2008 cohort assessed the incidence of SCD in persons aged 2-40 years to be 2.64/100,000 person-years. We hypothesized that Newfoundland & Labrador (NL) may have a higher incidence of early SCD in ages 2-40 due to possible underlying genetic causes given the historical genetic isolation of the population and the founder mutations already identified (ex. PKP2, RYR2, TMEM43). Methods: We ascertained cases of sudden death from the comprehensive Medical Examiners’ provincial database for the years 2008 and 1997; 2008 as a direct comparison to ON, and 1997 as it represented a time when the implantable cardioverter-defibrillator was not available in NL. Each case of sudden death was individually analyzed to determine likelihood of SCD. Results: There were 119 cases in 2008 and 157 cases in 1997. The incidence of SCD for ages 2-40 in 2008 was 7.32/100,000 persons. This was significantly higher than the incidence in Ontario. The incidence of SCD was not significantly higher in 1997 than 2008. Coronary artery disease was a major cause of death in all cohorts, similar to Ontario (non-significant difference). Conclusion: In general, there was a trend of more arrhythmogenic deaths in the young and more structural cardiac deaths as age increased. This reflects the cause of SCD in the young is often genetic in nature, while older deaths are often due to coronary artery disease, a disease heavily influenced by environment. To conclude, SCD in NL occurs at a higher incidence than ON, further research is needed on the topic.

Development of an instrumented customizable total knee prosthesis for experimental tests.

Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) has revolutionized the life of millions of patients and it is the most efficient treatment in cases of osteoarthritis. The increase in life expectancy has lowered the average age of the patient, which requires a more enduring and performing prosthesis. To improve the design of implants and satisfying the patient's needs, a deep understanding of the knee Biomechanics is needed. To overcome the uncertainties of numerical models, recently instrumented knee prostheses are spreading. The aim of the thesis was to design and manifacture a new prototype of instrumented implant, able to measure kinetics and kinematics (in terms of medial and lateral forces and patellofemoral forces) of different interchangeable designs of prosthesis during experiments tests within a research laboratory, on robotic knee simulator. Unlike previous prototypes it was not aimed for industrial applications, but purely focusing on research. After a careful study of the literature, and a preliminary analytic study, the device was created modifying the structure of a commercial prosthesis and transforming it in a load cell. For monitoring the kinematics of the femoral component a three-layers, piezoelettric position sensor was manifactured using a Velostat foil. This sensor has responded well to pilot test. Once completed, such device can be used to validate existing numerical models of the knee and of TKA and create new ones, more accurate.It can lead to refinement of surgical techniques, to enhancement of prosthetic designs and, once validated, and if properly modified, it can be used also intraoperatively.

Measuring the Diversity and the Integration of Film Production in Mercosur: A Social Network Analysis

Based on an original and comprehensive database of all feature fiction films produced in Mercosur between 2004 and 2012, the paper analyses whether the Mercosur film industry has evolved towards an integrated and culturally more diverse market. It provides a summary of policy opportunities in terms of integration and diversity, emphasizing the limiter role played by regional policies. It then shows that although the Mercosur film industry remains rather disintegrated, it tends to become more integrated and culturally more diverse. From a methodological point of view, the combination of Social Network Analysis and the Stirling Model opens up interesting research tracks to analyse creative industries in terms of their market integration and their cultural diversity.

Acceptance of relapse fears in breast cancer patients: effects of an act-based abridged intervention

Objective: Relapse fear is a common psychological scar in cancer survivors. The aim of this study is to assess the effects of an abridged version of Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) in breast cancer patients.Method: An open trial was developed with 12 non-metastatic breast cancer patients assigned to 2 conditions, ACT and waiting list. Interventions were applied in just one session and focused on the acceptance of relapse fears through a ‘defusion’ exercise. Interference and intensity of fear measured through subjective scales were collected after each intervention and again 3 months later. Distress, hypochondria and ‘anxious preocupation’ were also evaluated through standardized questionnaires.Results: The analysis revealed that ‘defusion’ contributed to decrease the interference of the fear of recurrence, and these changes were maintained three months after intervention in most subjects. 87% of participants showed clinically significant decreases in interference at follow-up sessions whereas no patient in the waiting list showed such changes. Statistical analysis revealed that the changes in interference were significant when comparing pre, post and follow-up treatment, and also when comparing ACT and waiting list groups. Changes in intensity of fear, distress, anxious preoccupation and hypochondria were also observed.Conclusions: Exposure through ‘defusion’ techniques might be considered a useful option for treatment of persistent fears in cancer patients. This study provides evidence for therapies focusing on psychological acceptance in cancer patients through short, simple and feasible therapeutic methods.

Daughter of Eve, "Femme Fatale", and Persecuted Artist: The Mythic Transgressive Woman in Oscar Wilde's and Richard Strauss's "Salome"

Historically, Salome was an unexceptional figure who never catalyzed John the Baptist's death. However, in Christian Scripture, she becomes the dancing seductress as fallen daughter of Eve.  Her stepfather Herod promises Salome his kingdom if she dances for him, but she follows her mother’s wish to have John beheaded. In Strauss’s opera, after Wilde's Symbolist-Decadent play, Salome becomes independent of Herodias’ will, and the mythic avatar of the femme fatale and persecuted artist who Herod has killed after she kisses John's severed head.  Her signature key of C# major, resolving to the C major sung by Herod and Jokanaan at her death, represent her tragic fate musically.

Technical metaphor in Spanish-English translation of the fields of blindness, fatigue, and the spiritual world

The correspondence in the Spanish-English translation is analyzed of three different fields of technical metaphors based upon blindness, fatigue, and the spiritual world. Some terms have been left aside that under the appearance of metaphors were mere samples of no-deviated language or cases of homonymy. The study reveals a higher presence of the metaphor in the Spanish language in the three fields of study, although the English language also shows a high index of metaphors. In between metaphors and non-metaphors, we find a lack of metaphorical equilibrium between Spanish and English in certain cases, which is a sign of the different perception of the reality. Finally, the conclusions shed light on the meaning of these words: blind, annoyance, fatigue, antifading, core, angels, espectrum, phantom, ghost, magic, postmortem, dead, etc.

Mathematical Modeling to Assess the Drivers of the Recent Emergence of Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi

BACKGROUND: Multiyear epidemics of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi have been reported from countries across eastern and southern Africa in recent years. In Blantyre, Malawi, a dramatic increase in typhoid fever cases has recently occurred, and may be linked to the emergence of the H58 haplotype. Strains belonging to the H58 haplotype often exhibit multidrug resistance and may have a fitness advantage relative to other Salmonella Typhi strains.

METHODS: To explore hypotheses for the increased number of typhoid fever cases in Blantyre, we fit a mathematical model to culture-confirmed cases of Salmonella enterica infections at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre. We explored 4 hypotheses: (1) an increase in the basic reproductive number (R0) in response to increasing population density; (2) a decrease in the incidence of cross-immunizing infection with Salmonella Enteritidis; (3) an increase in the duration of infectiousness due to failure to respond to first-line antibiotics; and (4) an increase in the transmission rate following the emergence of the H58 haplotype.

RESULTS: Increasing population density or decreasing cross-immunity could not fully explain the observed pattern of typhoid emergence in Blantyre, whereas models allowing for an increase in the duration of infectiousness and/or the transmission rate of typhoid following the emergence of the H58 haplotype provided a good fit to the data.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that an increase in the transmissibility of typhoid due to the emergence of drug resistance associated with the H58 haplotype may help to explain recent outbreaks of typhoid in Malawi and similar settings in Africa.

Reframing Public Inquiries as 'Procedural Justice' for Victims of Institutional Child Abuse: Towards a Hybrid Model of Justice

As the number of high profile cases of institutional child abuse mounts internationally, and the demands of victims for justice are heard, state responses have ranged from prosecution, apology, and compensation schemes, to truth commissions or public inquiries. Drawing on the examples of Australia and Northern Ireland as two jurisdictions with a recent and ongoing history of statutory inquiries into institutional child abuse, the article utilises the restorative justice paradigm to critically evaluate the strengths and limitations of the inquiry framework in providing ‘justice’ for victims. It critically explores the normative and pragmatic implications of a hybrid model as a more effective route to procedural justice and suggests that an appropriately designed restorative pathway may augment the legitimacy and utility of the public inquiry model for victims chiefly via improving offender accountability and ‘voice’ for victims. The article concludes by offering some thoughts on the broader implications for other jurisdictions in responding to large-scale historical abuses and seeking to come to terms with the legacy of institutional child abuse.

Multi-Tenant Virtual GPUs for Optimising Performance of a Financial Risk Application

Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) are becoming popular accelerators in modern High-Performance Computing (HPC) clusters. Installing GPUs on each node of the cluster is not efficient resulting in high costs and power consumption as well as underutilisation of the accelerator. The research reported in this paper is motivated towards the use of few physical GPUs by providing cluster nodes access to remote GPUs on-demand for a financial risk application. We hypothesise that sharing GPUs between several nodes, referred to as multi-tenancy, reduces the execution time and energy consumed by an application. Two data transfer modes between the CPU and the GPUs, namely concurrent and sequential, are explored. The key result from the experiments is that multi-tenancy with few physical GPUs using sequential data transfers lowers the execution time and the energy consumed, thereby improving the overall performance of the application.

In My 'Mind's Eye': Introspectionism, Detectivism, and the Basis of Authoritative Self-Knowledge

It is widely accepted that knowledge of certain of one’s own mental states is authoritative in being epistemically more secure than knowledge of the mental states of others, and theories of self-knowledge have largely appealed to one or the other of two sources to explain this special epistemic status. The first, ‘detectivist’, position, appeals to an inner perception-like basis, whereas the second, ‘constitutivist’, one, appeals to the view that the special security awarded to certain self-knowledge is a conceptual matter. I argue that there is a fundamental class of cases of authoritative self-knowledge, ones in which subjects are consciously thinking about their current, conscious intentional states, that is best accounted for in terms of a theory that is, broadly speaking, introspectionist and detectivist. The position developed has an intuitive plausibility that has inspired many who work in the Cartesian tradition, and the potential to yield a single treatment of the basis of authoritative self-knowledge for both intentional states and sensation states.

Review of virtual power plant applications for the power system management and V2G market development

Utilization of renewable energy sources and energy storage systems is increasing with fostering new policies on energy industries. However, the increase of distributed generation hinders the reliability of power systems. In order to stabilize them, a virtual power plant emerges as a novel power grid management system. The VPP has a role to make a participation of different distributed energy resources and energy storage systems. This paper defines core technology of the VPP which are demand response and ancillary service concerning about Korea, America and Europe cases. It also suggests application solutions of the VPP to V2G market for restructuring national power industries in Korea.

Murray v McCullough (as Nominee on Behalf of the Trustees and on Behalf of the Board of Governors of Rainey Endowed School) [2016] NIQB 52

Considers the Northern Ireland Queen’s Bench Division ruling in Murray v McCullough concerning the duty of care incumbent upon the school with regard to the wearing of mouth guards by pupils when playing hockey. Comments on the limitations of the legal doctrine of in loco parentis in cases of professional negligence and, how ‘sports law’ jurisprudence might prove instructive in sports negligence cases.

Capital 2.0 capital formation and legal risk in a new global economic order from fiat to exit: including case studies of the proposed transatlantic trade and investment partnership between the United States and the European Union and the financing relation between the United States and the People’s Republic of China

Following the intrinsically linked balance sheets in his Capital Formation Life Cycle, Lukas M. Stahl explains with his Triple A Model of Accounting, Allocation and Accountability the stages of the Capital Formation process from FIAT to EXIT. Based on the theoretical foundations of legal risk laid by the International Bar Association with the help of Roger McCormick and legal scholars such as Joanna Benjamin, Matthew Whalley and Tobias Mahler, and founded on the basis of Wesley Hohfeld’s category theory of jural relations, Stahl develops his mutually exclusive Four Determinants of Legal Risk of Law, Lack of Right, Liability and Limitation. Those Four Determinants of Legal Risk allow us to apply, assess, and precisely describe the respective legal risk at all stages of the Capital Formation Life Cycle as demonstrated in case studies of nine industry verticals of the proposed and currently negotiated Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the United States of America and the European Union, TTIP, as well as in the case of the often cited financing relation between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. Having established the Four Determinants of Legal Risk and its application to the Capital Formation Life Cycle, Stahl then explores the theoretical foundations of capital formation, their historical basis in classical and neo-classical economics and its forefathers such as The Austrians around Eugen von Boehm-Bawerk, Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich von Hayek and most notably and controversial, Karl Marx, and their impact on today’s exponential expansion of capital formation. Starting off with the first pillar of his Triple A Model, Accounting, Stahl then moves on to explain the Three Factors of Capital Formation, Man, Machines and Money and shows how “value-added” is created with respect to the non-monetary capital factors of human resources and industrial production. Followed by a detailed analysis discussing the roles of the Three Actors of Monetary Capital Formation, Central Banks, Commercial Banks and Citizens Stahl readily dismisses a number of myths regarding the creation of money providing in-depth insight into the workings of monetary policy makers, their institutions and ultimate beneficiaries, the corporate and consumer citizens. In his second pillar, Allocation, Stahl continues his analysis of the balance sheets of the Capital Formation Life Cycle by discussing the role of The Five Key Accounts of Monetary Capital Formation, the Sovereign, Financial, Corporate, Private and International account of Monetary Capital Formation and the associated legal risks in the allocation of capital pursuant to his Four Determinants of Legal Risk. In his third pillar, Accountability, Stahl discusses the ever recurring Crisis-Reaction-Acceleration-Sequence-History, in short: CRASH, since the beginning of the millennium starting with the dot-com crash at the turn of the millennium, followed seven years later by the financial crisis of 2008 and the dislocations in the global economy we are facing another seven years later today in 2015 with several sordid debt restructurings under way and hundred thousands of refugees on the way caused by war and increasing inequality. Together with the regulatory reactions they have caused in the form of so-called landmark legislation such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, the JOBS Act of 2012 or the introduction of the Basel Accords, Basel II in 2004 and III in 2010, the European Financial Stability Facility of 2010, the European Stability Mechanism of 2012 and the European Banking Union of 2013, Stahl analyses the acceleration in size and scope of crises that appears to find often seemingly helpless bureaucratic responses, the inherent legal risks and the complete lack of accountability on part of those responsible. Stahl argues that the order of the day requires to address the root cause of the problems in the form of two fundamental design defects of our Global Economic Order, namely our monetary and judicial order. Inspired by a 1933 plan of nine University of Chicago economists abolishing the fractional reserve system, he proposes the introduction of Sovereign Money as a prerequisite to void misallocations by way of judicial order in the course of domestic and transnational insolvency proceedings including the restructuring of sovereign debt throughout the entire monetary system back to its origin without causing domino effects of banking collapses and failed financial institutions. In recognizing Austrian-American economist Schumpeter’s Concept of Creative Destruction, as a process of industrial mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one, Stahl responds to Schumpeter’s economic chemotherapy with his Concept of Equitable Default mimicking an immunotherapy that strengthens the corpus economicus own immune system by providing for the judicial authority to terminate precisely those misallocations that have proven malignant causing default perusing the century old common law concept of equity that allows for the equitable reformation, rescission or restitution of contract by way of judicial order. Following a review of the proposed mechanisms of transnational dispute resolution and current court systems with transnational jurisdiction, Stahl advocates as a first step in order to complete the Capital Formation Life Cycle from FIAT, the creation of money by way of credit, to EXIT, the termination of money by way of judicial order, the institution of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Court constituted by a panel of judges from the U.S. Court of International Trade and the European Court of Justice by following the model of the EFTA Court of the European Free Trade Association. Since the first time his proposal has been made public in June of 2014 after being discussed in academic circles since 2011, his or similar proposals have found numerous public supporters. Most notably, the former Vice President of the European Parliament, David Martin, has tabled an amendment in June 2015 in the course of the negotiations on TTIP calling for an independent judicial body and the Member of the European Commission, Cecilia Malmström, has presented her proposal of an International Investment Court on September 16, 2015. Stahl concludes, that for the first time in the history of our generation it appears that there is a real opportunity for reform of our Global Economic Order by curing the two fundamental design defects of our monetary order and judicial order with the abolition of the fractional reserve system and the introduction of Sovereign Money and the institution of a democratically elected Transatlantic Trade and Investment Court that commensurate with its jurisdiction extending to cases concerning the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership may complete the Capital Formation Life Cycle resolving cases of default with the transnational judicial authority for terminal resolution of misallocations in a New Global Economic Order without the ensuing dangers of systemic collapse from FIAT to EXIT.

Symptoms of Poststroke Depression among Stroke Survivors: An Appraisal of Psychiatry Needs and Care during Physiotherapy Rehabilitation

Purpose. To identify stroke survivors with symptoms of poststroke depression and the extent of psychiatry needs and care they have received while on physiotherapy rehabilitation. Participants. Fifty stroke survivors (22 females and 28 males) at the outpatient unit of Physiotherapy Department, University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital, Enugu, who gave their informed consent, were randomly selected. Their age range and mean age were 26–66 years and 54.76 ± 8.79 years, respectively. Method. A multiple case study of 50 stroke survivors for symptoms of poststroke depression was done with Beck’s Depression Inventory, mini mental status examination tool, and Modified Motor Assessment Scale. The tests were performed independently by the participants except otherwise stated and scored on a scale of 0–6. Data were analyzed using -test for proportional significance and chi-square test for determining relationship between variables, at p < 0.05. Results. Twenty-one (42.0%) stroke survivors had symptoms of PSD, which was significantly dependent on duration of stroke ( = 21.680, df = 6, and p = 0.001), yet none of the participants had a psychiatry review. Conclusions. Symptoms of PSD may be common in cold compared to new cases of stroke and may need psychiatry care while on physiotherapy rehabilitation.