Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Evaluating and optimizing oral formulations of live bacterial vaccines using a gastro-small intestine model

Gastrointestinal (GI) models that mimic physiological conditions in vitro are important tools for developing and optimizing biopharmaceutical formulations. Oral administration of live attenuated bacterial vaccines (LBV) can safely and effectively promote mucosal immunity but new formulations are required that provide controlled release of optimal numbers of viable bacterial cells, which must survive gastrointestinal transit overcoming various antimicrobial barriers. Here, we use a gastro-small intestine gut model of human GI conditions to study the survival and release kinetics of two oral LBV formulations: the licensed typhoid fever vaccine Vivotif comprising enteric coated capsules; and an experimental formulation of the model vaccine Salmonella Typhimurium SL3261 dried directly onto cast enteric polymer films and laminated to form a polymer film laminate (PFL). Neither formulation released significant numbers of viable cells when tested in the complete gastro-small intestine model. The poor performance in delivering viable cells could be attributed to a combination of acid and bile toxicity plus incomplete release of cells for Vivotif capsules, and to bile toxicity alone for PFL. To achieve effective protection from intestinal bile in addition to effective acid resistance, bile adsorbent resins were incorporated into the PFL to produce a new formulation, termed BR-PFL. Efficient and complete release of 4.4x107 live cells per dose was achieved from BR-PFL at distal intestinal pH, with release kinetics controlled by the composition of the enteric polymer film, and no loss in viability observed in any stage of the GI model. Use of this in vitro GI model thereby allowed rational design of an oral LBV formulation to maximize viable cell release.

Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation

This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased to 1.25◦ × 0.83◦ in longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3◦ × 1/3◦ globally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,..., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean,the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments.

The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.

Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August, JJA) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2% ± 13.0% of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8% ± 13.6% of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5% ± 17.6% and 40.9% ± 18.4% of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor emissions over Europe and North America will continue to decline. Our results suggest that the changes in summer seasonal mean SAT and temperature extremes over Western Europe since the mid-1990s are most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term, unless other factors intervene.

Collagen membranes at immediate implants: a histomorphometric study in dogs

Aim To evaluate the influence of resorbable membranes on hard tissue alterations and osseointegration at implants placed into extraction sockets in a dog model. Material and methods In the mandibular premolar region, implants were installed immediately into the extraction sockets of six Labrador dogs. Collagen-resorbable membranes were placed at the test sites, while the control sites were left uncovered. Implants were intended to heal in a submerged mode. After 4 months of healing, the animals were sacrificed, and ground sections were obtained for histomorphometric evaluation. Results After 4 months of healing, a control implant was not integrated (n=5). Both at the test and at the control sites, bone resorption occurred. While the most coronal bone-to-implant contact was similar between the test and the control sites, the alveolar bone crest outline was maintained to a higher degree at the buccal aspect of the test sites (loss: 1.7 mm) compared with the control sites (loss: 2.2 mm). Conclusions The use of collagen-resorbable membranes at implants immediately placed into extraction sockets contributed to a partial (23%) preservation of the buccal outline of the alveolar process. To cite this article:Caneva M, Botticelli D, Salata LA, Souza SLS, Carvalho Cardoso L, Lang NP. Collagen membranes at immediate implants: a histomorphometric study in dogs.Clin. Oral Impl. Res. 21, 2010; 891-897.doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0501.2010.01946.x.

Downregulation of VAPB expression in motor neurons derived from induced pluripotent stem cells of ALS8 patients

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is an incurable neuromuscular disease that leads to a profound loss of life quality and premature death. Around 10% of the cases are inherited and ALS8 is an autosomal dominant form of familial ALS caused by mutations in the vamp-associated protein B/C (VAPB) gene. The VAPB protein is involved in many cellular processes and it likely contributes to the pathogenesis of other forms of ALS besides ALS8. A number of successful drug tests in ALS animal models could not be translated to humans underscoring the need for novel approaches. The induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSC) technology brings new hope, since it can be used to model and investigate diseases in vitro. Here we present an additional tool to study ALS based on ALS8-iPSC. Fibroblasts from ALS8 patients and their non-carrier siblings were successfully reprogrammed to a pluripotent state and differentiated into motor neurons. We show for the first time that VAPB protein levels are reduced in ALS8-derived motor neurons but, in contrast to over-expression systems, cytoplasmic aggregates could not be identified. Our results suggest that optimal levels of VAPB may play a central role in the pathogenesis of ALS8, in agreement with the observed reduction of VAPB in sporadic ALS.

Endurance training modulates lymphocyte function in rats with post-MI CHF

Purpose: Exercise training restores innate immune system cell function in post-myocardial infarction (post-MI) rats. However, studies of the involvement of lymphocyte (Ly) in the setting of the congestive heart failure (CHF) are few. To address this issue, we investigated the function of Ly obtained from cervical lymph nodes from post-MI CHF rats submitted to treadmill running training. Methods: Twenty-five male Wistar rats were randomly assigned to the following groups: rats submitted to ligation of the left coronary artery, which were sedentary (MI-S, N= 7, only limited activity) or trained (MI-T, N= 6, on a treadmill (0% grade at 13-20 m.m(-1)) for 60 min.d(-1), 5 d.wk(-1), for 8-10 wk); or sham-operated rats, which were sedentary (sham-S, N = 6) or trained (sham-T, N = 6). The incorporation of [2-C-14]-thymidine by Ly cultivated in the presence of concanavalin A (Con A) and lipopolysaccharide (LPS), cytokine production by Ly cultivated in the presence of phytohemagglutinin (PHA), and plasma concentration of glutamine were assessed in all groups, 48 h after the last exercise session. Results: Proliferative capacity was increased, following incubation with Con-A in the MI groups, when compared with the sham counterparts. When incubated in the presence of PHA, MI-S produced more IL-4 (96%) than sham-S (P < 0.001). The training protocol induced a 2.2-fold increase in the production of interleukin-2 (P < 0.001) of the cells obtained from the cervical lymph nodes of MI-T, compared with MI-S. Conclusion: The moderate endurance training protocol caused an increase in IL-2 production, and a trend toward the reversion of the Th-1/Th-2 imbalance associated with IL-4 production increased in the post-MI CHF animal model.

Chaotic phase synchronization and desynchronization in an oscillator network for object selection

Object selection refers to the mechanism of extracting objects of interest while ignoring other objects and background in a given visual scene. It is a fundamental issue for many computer vision and image analysis techniques and it is still a challenging task to artificial Visual systems. Chaotic phase synchronization takes place in cases involving almost identical dynamical systems and it means that the phase difference between the systems is kept bounded over the time, while their amplitudes remain chaotic and may be uncorrelated. Instead of complete synchronization, phase synchronization is believed to be a mechanism for neural integration in brain. In this paper, an object selection model is proposed. Oscillators in the network representing the salient object in a given scene are phase synchronized, while no phase synchronization occurs for background objects. In this way, the salient object can be extracted. In this model, a shift mechanism is also introduced to change attention from one object to another. Computer simulations show that the model produces some results similar to those observed in natural vision systems.

Exciton behavior in GaAs/AlGaAs coupled double quantum wells with interface disorder

In this work, we present a detailed study on the optical properties of two GaAs/Al(0.35)Ga(0.65)As coupled double quantum wells (CDQWs) with inter-well barriers of different thicknesses, by using photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy. The two CDQWs were grown in a single sample, assuring very similar experimental conditions for measurements of both. The PL spectrum of each CDQW exhibits two recombination channels which can be accurately identified as the excitonic e(1)-hh(1) transitions originated from CDQWs of different effective dimensions. The PL spectra characteristics and the behavior of the emissions as a function of temperature and excitation power are interpreted in the scenario of the bimodal interface roughness model, taking into account the exciton migration between the two regions considered in this model and the difference in the potential fluctuation levels between those two regions. The details of the PL spectra behavior as a function of excitation power are explained in terms of the competition between the band gap renormalization (BGR) and the potential fluctuation effects. The results obtained for the two CDQWs, which have different degrees of potential fluctuation, are also compared and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An asymmetric sandpile model with height restriction

We analyze by numerical simulations and mean-field approximations an asymmetric version of the stochastic sandpile model with height restriction in one dimension. Each site can have at most two particles. Single particles are inactive and do not move. Two particles occupying the same site are active and may hop to neighboring sites following an asymmetric rule. Jumps to the right or to the left occur with distinct probabilities. In the active state, there will be a net current of particles to the right or to the left. We have found that the critical behavior related to the transition from the active to the absorbing state is distinct from the symmetrical case, making the asymmetry a relevant field.

Lambda and (Lambda)over-bar polarization in Au-Au collisions at RHIC

Experiments at RHIC have shown that in 200 GeV Au-Au collisions, the Lambda and (Lambda) over bar hyperons are produced with very small polarizations (Abelev et al., 2007) [1], almost consistent with zero. These results can be understood in terms of a model that we proposed (Barros and Hama, 2008) [2]. In this Letter, we show how this model may be applied in such collisions, and also will discuss the relation of our results with other models, in order to explain the experimental data. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mean Motion in Stochastic Plasmas With a Space-Dependent Diffusion Coefficient

Radial transport in the tokamap, which has been proposed as a simple model for the motion in a stochastic plasma, is investigated. A theory for previous numerical findings is presented. The new results are stimulated by the fact that the radial diffusion coefficients is space-dependent. The space-dependence of the transport coefficient has several interesting effects which have not been elucidated so far. Among the new findings are the analytical predictions for the scaling of the mean radial displacement with time and the relation between the Fokker-Planck diffusion coefficient and the diffusion coefficient from the mean square displacement. The applicability to other systems is also discussed. (c) 2009 WILEY-VCH GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

A conformal invariant growth model

We present a one-parameter extension of the raise and peel one-dimensional growth model. The model is defined in the configuration space of Dyck (RSOS) paths. Tiles from a rarefied gas hit the interface and change its shape. The adsorption rates are local but the desorption rates are non-local; they depend not only on the cluster hit by the tile but also on the total number of peaks (local maxima) belonging to all the clusters of the configuration. The domain of the parameter is determined by the condition that the rates are non-negative. In the finite-size scaling limit, the model is conformal invariant in the whole open domain. The parameter appears in the sound velocity only. At the boundary of the domain, the stationary state is an adsorbing state and conformal invariance is lost. The model allows us to check the universality of non-local observables in the raise and peel model. An example is given.

Improved likelihood inference in Birnbaum-Saunders regressions

The Birnbaum-Saunders regression model is commonly used in reliability studies. We address the issue of performing inference in this class of models when the number of observations is small. Our simulation results suggest that the likelihood ratio test tends to be liberal when the sample size is small. We obtain a correction factor which reduces the size distortion of the test. Also, we consider a parametric bootstrap scheme to obtain improved critical values and improved p-values for the likelihood ratio test. The numerical results show that the modified tests are more reliable in finite samples than the usual likelihood ratio test. We also present an empirical application. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.