Productivity growth and the exchange rate regime: The role of financial development

This paper offers empirical evidence that a country's choice of exchange rate regime can have a signifficant impact on its medium-term rate of productivity growth. Moreover, the impact depends critically on the country's level of financial development, its degree of market regulation, and its distance from the global technology frontier. We illustrate how each of these channels may operate in a simple stylized growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment e¤ects of domestic credit market constraints. The empirical analysis is based on an 83 country data set spanning the years 1960-2000. Our approach delivers results that are in striking contrast to the vast existing empirical exchange rate literature, which largely finds the effects of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be relatively small and insignificant.

Security analysts as frame-makers

In this paper we explore the mechanisms that allow securities analysts to value companies in contexts of Knightian uncertainty, that is, in the face of information that is unclear, subject to unforeseeable contingencies or to multiple interpretations. We address this question with a grounded-theory analysis of the reports written on Amazon.com by securities analyst Henry Blodget and rival analysts during the years 1998-2000. Our core finding is that analysts' reports are structured by internally consistent associations that includecategorizations, key metrics and analogies. We refer to these representations as calculative frames, and propose that analysts function as frame-makers - that is, asspecialized intermediaries that help investors value uncertain stocks. We conclude by considering the implications of frame-making for the rise of new industry categories, analysts' accuracy, and the regulatory debate on analysts'independence.

The great diversification and its undoing

We investigate the hypothesis that macroeconomic fluctuations are primitively theresults of many microeconomic shocks, and show that it has significant explanatorypower for the evolution of macroeconomic volatility. We define ?fundamental? volatilityas the volatility that would arise from an economy made entirely of idiosyncratic microeconomicshocks, occurring primitively at the level of sectors or firms. In its empiricalconstruction, motivated by a simple model, the sales share of different sectors vary overtime (in a way we directly measure), while the volatility of those sectors remains constant.We find that fundamental volatility accounts for the swings in macroeconomicvolatility in the US and the other major world economies in the past half century. Itaccounts for the ?great moderation? and its undoing. Controlling for our measure offundamental volatility, there is no break in output volatility. The initial great moderationis due to a decreasing share of manufacturing between 1975 and 1985. The recentrise of macroeconomic volatility is due to the increase of the size of the financial sector.We provide a model to think quantitatively about the large comovement generated byidiosyncratic shocks. As the origin of aggregate shocks can be traced to identifiablemicroeconomic shocks, we may better understand the origins of aggregate fluctuations.

Appropriateness of therapy for fistulizing Crohn's disease: findings from a national inflammatory bowel disease cohort.

BACKGROUND: About 30-50% of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) develop fistulae, implying significant disease burden and complicated clinical management. AIM: To assess appropriate use of therapy for fistulizing CD patients enrolled in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort using criteria developed by the European Panel on the Appropriateness of Crohn's disease Therapy. METHODS: Specific questionnaires were used to gather information on disease and its management. We assessed appropriateness of therapy at enrolment for adult CD patients with one or several fistulae. RESULTS: Two hundred and eighty-eight CD patients had fistulizing disease, of which 80% had complex fistulae and 32% currently had active draining fistulae. Mean age (s.d.) at diagnosis was 27 years (11), 51% males. Of the patients, 78% were judged as having globally an appropriate therapy, which was more often given for complex fistulae (87%) than for simple fistulae (67%). Antibiotics, azathioprine/MP, methotrexate and conservative surgery were almost always appropriate. Anti-tumor necrosis factor α was considered globally appropriate (91%), although most often with an uncertain indication. The 5ASA compounds, steroids and aggressive surgery were most often inappropriate (84%, 58% and 86% respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Formal appropriateness criteria for CD therapy were applied to a national cohort of IBD patients. For more than three-quarters of the patients with fistulizing CD, therapy was globally appropriate.

Joan Sales, una traducció i una novel·la sense punt final

La història de la traducció francesa d’Incerta glòria i les relacions epistolars entre l’autor i el seu traductor permeten entendre millor el procés de composició de la gran novel·la de Joan Sales, sempre necessitat d’explicar la seva veritat i permanentment insatisfet amb la seva obra

Monetary policy and rational asset price bubbles

I examine the impact of alternative monetary policy rules on arational asset price bubble, through the lens of an overlapping generations model with nominal rigidities. A systematic increase in interestrates in response to a growing bubble is shown to enhance the fluctuations in the latter, through its positive effect on bubble growth. Theoptimal monetary policy seeks to strike a balance between stabilization of the bubble and stabilization of aggregate demand. The paper'smain findings call into question the theoretical foundations of the casefor "leaning against the wind" monetary policies.

Plan estratégico 2012-2105 para la empresa Automatizaciones Eléctricas, SL

La empresa moderna, se encuentra en una situación actual de incertidumbre en la que además está más expuesta a factores externos con el aumento de la competencia y el impacto de la globalización. Se enfrenta a un panorama que debe ser gestionado adecuadamente para asegurar su supervivencia y el éxito de su existencia. En este TFC, se presenta una de las herramientas ‘buque insignia’ del Management moderno, aquella que está destinada a ser la base de la Gestión de la empresa y que cada vez más se hace imprescindible para la construcción de un futuro cada vez más incierto, la Planificación Estratégica. El Plan Estratégico 2012-2015 de AESL se desarrolla en varios apartados que intentarán dar con las claves de la dirección que la empresa debe seguir y propone los objetivos que encontrará a través de la puesta en marcha de las acciones y estrategias determinadas. La primera etapa, y la más extensa, realiza un Análisis de la situación externa e interna de la empresa además de un Diagnóstico de la misma. Se analizan diversos factores que pueden contribuir o hacer peligrar el futuro de la empresa, y constituye el punto de partida de la planificación. En la segunda etapa, y con la información de la anterior fase, comienza la fijación de los Objetivos Corporativos y la definición de las Decisiones Estratégicas que han de transformar nuestro rumbo actual en el logro de esos objetivos. Las estrategias no sólo comportarán un ámbito corporativo, también se centrarán en estrategias funcionales con un carácter más definitorio en el interior de la empresa. Por último, la tercera y última etapa, aglutinará todas estas Decisiones estratégicas para transformarlas en las Decisiones Operativas, aquellas que se encargarán de gestionar el día a día de la empresa a través de los Planes de Acción, que suponen la etapa de mayor concreción del Plan. Este Plan a 3 años deberá erigirse como la herramienta de planificación más importante de la empresa, debiendo guiar las principales decisiones tomadas y convirtiéndose en un instrumento de consulta no sólo para decidir hoy lo que se hará en el futuro sino también para mantener unos niveles altos de competitividad en el tremendo esfuerzo que supone la gestión de una PYME.

Whose DNA is this? How relevant a question? (a note for forensic scientists).

This communication seeks to draw the attention of researchers and practitioners dealing with forensic DNA profiling analyses to the following question: is a scientist's report, offering support to a hypothesis according to which a particular individual is the source of DNA detected during the analysis of a stain, relevant from the point of view of a Court of Justice? This question relates to skeptical views previously voiced by commentators mainly in the judicial area, but is avoided by a large majority of forensic scientists. Notwithstanding, the pivotal role of this question has recently been evoked during the international conference "The hidden side of DNA profiles. Artifacts, errors and uncertain evidence" held in Rome (April 27th to 28th, 2012). Indeed, despite the fact that this conference brought together some of the world's leading forensic DNA specialists, it appeared clearly that a huge gap still exists between questions lawyers are actually interested in, and the answers that scientists deliver to Courts in written reports or during oral testimony. Participants in the justice system, namely lawyers and jurors on the one hand and forensic geneticists on the other, unfortunately talk considerably different languages. It thus is fundamental to address this issue of communication about results of forensic DNA analyses, and open a dialogue with practicing non-scientists at large who need to make meaningful use of scientific results to approach and help solve judicial cases. This paper intends to emphasize the actuality of this topic and suggest beneficial ways ahead towards a more reasoned use of forensic DNA in criminal proceedings.

Barbiturate infusion for intractable intracranial hypertension and its effect on brain oxygenation.

OBJECTIVE: Barbiturate-induced coma can be used in patients to treat intractable intracranial hypertension when other therapies, such as osmotic therapy and sedation, have failed. Despite control of intracranial pressure, cerebral infarction may still occur in some patients, and the effect of barbiturates on outcome remains uncertain. In this study, we examined the relationship between barbiturate infusion and brain tissue oxygen (PbtO2). METHODS: Ten volume-resuscitated brain-injured patients who were treated with pentobarbital infusion for intracranial hypertension and underwent PbtO2 monitoring were studied in a neurosurgical intensive care unit at a university-based Level I trauma center. PbtO2, intracranial pressure (ICP), mean arterial pressure, cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP), and brain temperature were continuously monitored and compared in settings in which barbiturates were or were not administered. RESULTS: Data were available from 1595 hours of PbtO2 monitoring. When pentobarbital administration began, the mean ICP, CPP, and PbtO2 were 18 +/- 10, 72 +/- 18, and 28 +/- 12 mm Hg, respectively. During the 3 hours before barbiturate infusion, the maximum ICP was 24 +/- 13 mm Hg and the minimum CPP was 65 +/- 20 mm Hg. In the majority of patients (70%), we observed an increase in PbtO2 associated with pentobarbital infusion. Within this group, logistic regression analysis demonstrated that a higher likelihood of compromised brain oxygen (PbtO2 < 20 mm Hg) was associated with a decrease in pentobarbital dose after controlling for ICP and other physiological parameters (P < 0.001). In the remaining 3 patients, pentobarbital was associated with lower PbtO2 levels. These patients had higher ICP, lower CPP, and later initiation of barbiturates compared with patients whose PbtO2 increased. CONCLUSION: Our preliminary findings suggest that pentobarbital administered for intractable intracranial hypertension is associated with a significant and independent increase in PbtO2 in the majority of patients. However, in some patients with more compromised brain physiology, pentobarbital may have a negative effect on PbtO2, particularly if administered late. Larger studies are needed to examine the relationship between barbiturates and cerebral oxygenation in brain-injured patients with refractory intracranial hypertension and to determine whether PbtO2 responses can help guide therapy.

Essays in general equilibrium asset pricing

ABSTRACT : Research in empirical asset pricing has pointed out several anomalies both in the cross section and time series of asset prices, as well as in investors' portfolio choice. This dissertation aims to discover the forces driving some of these "puzzling" asset pricing dynamics and portfolio decisions observed in the financial market. Through the dissertation I construct and study dynamic general equilibrium models of heterogeneous investors in the presence of frictions and evaluate quantitatively their implications for financial-market asset prices and portfolio choice. I also explore the potential roots of puzzles in international finance. Chapter 1 shows that, by introducing jointly endogenous no-default type of borrowing constraints and heterogeneous beliefs in a dynamic general-equilibrium economy, many empirical features of stock return volatility can be reproduced. While most of the research on stock return volatility is empirical, this paper provides a theoretical framework that is able to reproduce simultaneously the cross section and time series stylized facts concerning stock returns and their volatility. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature related to stock return volatility, I don't impose persistence or regimes in any of the exogenous state variables or in preferences. Volatility clustering, asymmetry in the stock return-volatility relationship, and pricing of multi-factor volatility components in the cross section all arise endogenously as a consequence of the feedback between the binding of no-default constraints and heterogeneous beliefs. Chapters 2 and 3 explore the implications of differences of opinion across investors in different countries for international asset pricing anomalies. Chapter 2 demonstrates that several international finance "puzzles" can be reproduced by a single risk factor which captures heterogeneous beliefs across international investors. These puzzles include: (i) home equity preference; (ii) the dependence of firm returns on local and foreign factors; (iii) the co-movement of returns and international capital flows; and (iv) abnormal returns around foreign firm cross-listing events in the local market. These are reproduced in a setup with symmetric information and in a perfectly integrated world with multiple countries and independent processes producing the same good. Chapter 3 shows that by extending this framework to multiple goods and correlated production processes; the "forward premium puzzle" arises naturally as a compensation for the heterogeneous expectations about the depreciation of the exchange rate held by international investors. Chapters 2 and 3 propose differences of opinion across international investors as the potential resolution of several international finance `puzzles'. In a globalized world where both capital and information flow freely across countries, this explanation seems more appealing than existing asymmetric information or segmented markets theories aiming to explain international finance puzzles.

Appropriateness of use of infliximab in the Swiss IBD Cohort Study

Introduction: Anti-TNFs have significantly improved the management of Crohn's disease (CD), but not all patients will benefit from this therapy. We used data from the Swiss IBD Cohort Study (SIBDCS) and preset appropriateness criteria to examine the appropriateness of use of infliximab (IFX) in CD patients. aims & methods: EPACT II (European Panel on the Appropriateness of Crohn's disease Therapy) appropriateness criteria (www.epact.ch) have been developed by a formal panel process combining evidence from the published literature and expert opinion (end 2007), yielding 3 categories of indications: appropriate, uncertain, and inappropriate. Enrolment and follow-up of all SIBDCS patients were achieved with questionnaires relating to EPACT II criteria. Patients could correspond to several clinical categories; pregnant patients or those with stenosing disease could not be assessed using EPACT II criteria. A step-by-step analysis based on frequency allowed identification of the most appropriate indication for IFX in a given patient. results: 822 CD patients were included between November 2006 and March 2009. 146 patients (18%) were on IFX at inclusion (130 maintenance of remission, 16 new treatments). At inclusion, and in comparison with non-IFX treated patients, patients on infliximab were more frequently female (56% vs 51%), younger at diagnosis (27.4 years old vs 30.4) and had a slightly shorter disease duration (10.3 years vs 11.7). Disease extension was greater in these patients, who were mainly treated in university centres (83% vs 72%). IFX therapy was considered appropriate in 47%, uncertain in 36% and inappropriate in 18 % of patients (6% of situations could not be assessed). conclusion: In this cohort, most indications (47%) for IFX therapy were appropriate. Uncertain or inappropriate indications were mostly due to complex patient characteristics (e.g. complex fistulas, history of multiple drug-failures), which reflect the broad use of IFX in clinical practice. Cohort studies are well suited to evaluating the implementation of new scientific evidence in clinical practice.

Persuasion, binary choice, and the costs of dishonesty

We study the strategic interaction between a decision maker who needs to take a binary decision but is uncertain about relevant facts and an informed expert who can send a message to the decision maker but has a preference over the decision.We show that the probability that the expert can persuade the decision maker to take the expert's preferred decision is a hump-shaped function of his costs of sending dishonest messages.

Prognostic significance of deep vein thrombosis in patients presenting with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.

RATIONALE: Concomitant deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) has an uncertain prognostic significance. OBJECTIVES: In a cohort of patients with PE, this study compared the risk of death in those with and those without concomitant DVT. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of outpatients diagnosed with a first episode of acute symptomatic PE. Patients underwent bilateral lower extremity venous compression ultrasonography to assess for concomitant DVT. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The primary study outcome, all-cause mortality, and the secondary outcome of PE-specific mortality were assessed during the 3 months of follow-up after PE diagnosis. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was done to adjust for significant covariates. Of 707 patients diagnosed with PE, 51.2% (362 of 707) had concomitant DVT and 10.9% (77 of 707) died during follow-up. Patients with concomitant DVT had an increased all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.24 to 3.38; P = 0.005) and PE-specific mortality (adjusted HR, 4.25; 95% CI, 1.61 to 11.25; P = 0.04) compared with those without concomitant DVT. In an external validation cohort of 4,476 patients with acute PE enrolled in the international multicenter RIETE Registry, concomitant DVT remained a significant predictor of all-cause (adjusted HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.28 to 2.15; P < 0.001) and PE-specific mortality (adjusted HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.18 to 3.44; P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with a first episode of acute symptomatic PE, the presence of concomitant DVT is an independent predictor of death in the ensuing 3 months after diagnosis. Assessment of the thrombotic burden should assist with risk stratification of patients with acute PE.

Chronic rejection of allogenic dermal grafts in 73 % TBSA burn patient

Rationale: Allogenic grafts are an excellent way to temporarily cover a wound. It prevents the loss of electrolytes and water, reduces the risk of infection and diminishes pain. Another advantage of the allograft is in circumventing problems such as the morbidity of skin graft donor sites. We present here the case of a patient grafted in 1991 with cultured epidermal autografts (CEA) and allogenic skin transplants on his legs, outlining the risks and potential long-term complications. Methods: The 40-year-old male patient was treated with allogenic Split Thickness Skin Graft (STSG) transplantations, CEA and Cyclosporine-A therapy. Allogenic STSG for lower extremities were harvested from a female HIV-negative organ donor. They were transplanted, de-epithelialized and subsequently covered with CEAs. Cyclosporine-A was administered systemically from the first day following transplantation until three weeks after the last CEAs were placed on the allogenic dermis. Results: Immediate results showed a 90% successful grafting under cyclosporine therapy. However, some lesions were still present 16 months later. The skin was hard with little or no elasticity. Five years after the transplantation there were no more lesions. However, a 10-year follow-up showed new ulcers on both lower extremities. All the skin of the right leg was removed and replaced by STSG from the patient's back. Postoperative results were excellent with a 100% graft take. The anatomopathology showed dermo-hypodermic tissue with fibrosis of the dermis, vasculopathy and chronic ulcers compatible with chronic rejection. Conclusion: While early functional results of the allografts may seem encouraging, their long-term evolution remains uncertain and, in this case, presents complications. The apparent antigenic effect of the dermal tissue may be controlled with long-term immunosuppression which may cause important secondary effects. Even with such treatments, 15 years after organ transplantation, about 35% of a transplant is no longer functional. It is therefore important to take these long-term observations into consideration when treating sensitive areas such as hands or a face.

Recovery of paraplegia after type B dissection due to spinal collateral recruitment.

Acute paraplegia could be a symptom of aortic dissection due to sudden compromise of arterial spinal cord blood supply. Complete spontaneous neurologic recovery is possible and was observed in the present case 3 hours after symptom onset. Spontaneous spinal cord reperfusion after acute type B dissection was probably due to two main mechanisms. Reperfusion of false lumen and collateral vascular network recruitment, recently confirmed by anatomic animal studies, serve as potential explanations. Favorable evolution of acute paraplegia after aortic dissection exists, but prognosis is uncertain, probably due to individual variable anatomic distribution of spinal cord blood supply.