The illusion of control, the structures of prizes and the demand for football pools in Spain

Using data for all the fixtures for the seasons from 1972-73 to 2002-03, we estimate a dynamic model of demand for football pools in Spain paying attention to whether their main economic explanatory variable is the effective price of a ticket or the jackpot. Additionally, we evaluate the importance of the composition of the list of games in terms of whether First Division matches are included or not. Results show that the jackpot model is preferred to the effective price model, having important implications in terms of how the structure of the game should be changed in order to increase demand.

Reorganization of a deeply incised drainage: role of deformation, sedimentation and groundwater flow

Deeply incised drainage networks are thought to be robust and not easily modified, and are commonly used as passive markers of horizontal strain. Yet, reorganizations (rearrangements) appear in the geologic record. We provide field evidence of the reorganization of a Miocene drainage network in response to strike-slip and vertical displacements in Guatemala. The drainage was deeply incised into a 50-km-wide orogen located along the North America-Caribbean plate boundary. It rearranged twice, first during the Late Miocene in response to transpressional uplift along the Polochic fault, and again in the Quaternary in response to transtensional uplift along secondary faults. The pattern of reorganization resembles that produced by the tectonic defeat of rivers that cross growing tectonic structures. Compilation of remote sensing data, field mapping, sediment provenance study, grain-size analysis and Ar(40)/Ar(39) dating from paleovalleys and their fill reveals that the classic mechanisms of river diversion, such as river avulsion over bedrock, or capture driven by surface runoff, are not sufficient to produce the observed diversions. The sites of diversion coincide spatially with limestone belts and reactivated fault zones, suggesting that solution-triggered or deformation-triggered permeability have helped breaching of interfluves. The diversions are also related temporally and spatially to the accumulation of sediment fills in the valleys, upstream of the rising structures. We infer that the breaching of the interfluves was achieved by headward erosion along tributaries fed by groundwater flow tracking from the valleys soon to be captured. Fault zones and limestone belts provided the pathways, and the aquifers occupying the valley fills provided the head pressure that enhanced groundwater circulation. The defeat of rivers crossing the rising structures results essentially from the tectonically enhanced activation of groundwater flow between catchments.

Asymptotic robust inferences in the analysis of mean and covariance structures

Structural equation models are widely used in economic, socialand behavioral studies to analyze linear interrelationships amongvariables, some of which may be unobservable or subject to measurementerror. Alternative estimation methods that exploit different distributionalassumptions are now available. The present paper deals with issues ofasymptotic statistical inferences, such as the evaluation of standarderrors of estimates and chi--square goodness--of--fit statistics,in the general context of mean and covariance structures. The emphasisis on drawing correct statistical inferences regardless of thedistribution of the data and the method of estimation employed. A(distribution--free) consistent estimate of $\Gamma$, the matrix ofasymptotic variances of the vector of sample second--order moments,will be used to compute robust standard errors and a robust chi--squaregoodness--of--fit squares. Simple modifications of the usual estimateof $\Gamma$ will also permit correct inferences in the case of multi--stage complex samples. We will also discuss the conditions under which,regardless of the distribution of the data, one can rely on the usual(non--robust) inferential statistics. Finally, a multivariate regressionmodel with errors--in--variables will be used to illustrate, by meansof simulated data, various theoretical aspects of the paper.

Multi-sample analysis of moment-structures: Asymptotic validity of inferences based on second-order moments

In moment structure analysis with nonnormal data, asymptotic valid inferences require the computation of a consistent (under general distributional assumptions) estimate of the matrix $\Gamma$ of asymptotic variances of sample second--order moments. Such a consistent estimate involves the fourth--order sample moments of the data. In practice, the use of fourth--order moments leads to computational burden and lack of robustness against small samples. In this paper we show that, under certain assumptions, correct asymptotic inferences can be attained when $\Gamma$ is replaced by a matrix $\Omega$ that involves only the second--order moments of the data. The present paper extends to the context of multi--sample analysis of second--order moment structures, results derived in the context of (simple--sample) covariance structure analysis (Satorra and Bentler, 1990). The results apply to a variety of estimation methods and general type of statistics. An example involving a test of equality of means under covariance restrictions illustrates theoretical aspects of the paper.

Scaled and adjusted restricted tests in multi-sample analysis of moment structures

We extend to score, Wald and difference test statistics the scaled and adjusted corrections to goodness-of-fit test statistics developed in Satorra and Bentler (1988a,b). The theory is framed in the general context of multisample analysis of moment structures, under general conditions on the distribution of observable variables. Computational issues, as well as the relation of the scaled and corrected statistics to the asymptotic robust ones, is discussed. A Monte Carlo study illustrates thecomparative performance in finite samples of corrected score test statistics.

Comparison of information structures

We introduce two ways of comparing information structures, say ${\cal I}$ and${\cal J}$. First we say that ${\cal I}$ is richer than ${\cal J}$ when forevery compact game $G$, all correlated equilibrium distributions of $G$ inducedby ${\cal J}$ are also induced by ${\cal I}$. Second, we say that ${\cal J}$is faithfully reproducable from ${\cal I}$ when all the players can computefrom their information in ${\cal I}$ ``new information'' that they could havereceived from ${\cal J}$. We prove that ${\cal I}$ is richer than ${\cal J}$if and only if ${\cal J}$ is faithfully reproducable from ${\cal I}$.

Wage structures and family economies in the Catalan textile industry in an age of nascent capitalism

This paper deals with changes in managerial practices in Catalonia in anage of nascent capitalism (1830-1925) and adaptive family strategies inorder to face the absence of state welfare. During the 19 t h Century andin the absence of recorded labor contracts, human resources of the firmwere organized by means of implicit contracts and informal labor markets.With the advent of scientific organization of labor, wage per hour workedbegan to be recorded. This is why in the 1920s the perfect competitionmodel applies to our case. On the other hand, in the same period, and inthe absence of state welfare, ideas stemming from cooperative game theoryapply to the pattern of household income formation. Kin related networkswere used to improve the living standards of the household. In thisparticular direction we also show that there was a demonstration effectby means of which migrant s living standards were higher than those ofnatives.

The modal nature of structures in ontic structural realism

Ontic structural realism is the view that structures are what is real in the first place in the domain of fundamental physics. The structures are usually conceived as including a primitive modality. However, it has not been spelled out as yet what exactly that modality amounts to. This paper proposes to fill this lacuna by arguing that the fundamental physical structures possess a causal essence, being powers. Applying the debate about causal vs. categorical properties in analytic metaphysics to ontic structural realism, I show that the standard argument against categorical and for causal properties holds for structures as well. Structural realism, as a position in the metaphysics of science that is a form of scientific realism, is committed to causal structures. The metaphysics of causal structures is supported by physics, and it can provide for a complete and coherent view of the world that includes all domains of empirical science.

Rate of convergence of a particle method to the solution of the Mc Kean-Vlasov's equation

This paper studies the rate of convergence of an appropriatediscretization scheme of the solution of the Mc Kean-Vlasovequation introduced by Bossy and Talay. More specifically,we consider approximations of the distribution and of thedensity of the solution of the stochastic differentialequation associated to the Mc Kean - Vlasov equation. Thescheme adopted here is a mixed one: Euler/weakly interactingparticle system. If $n$ is the number of weakly interactingparticles and $h$ is the uniform step in the timediscretization, we prove that the rate of convergence of thedistribution functions of the approximating sequence in the $L^1(\Omega\times \Bbb R)$ norm and in the sup norm is of theorder of $\frac 1{\sqrt n} + h $, while for the densities is ofthe order $ h +\frac 1 {\sqrt {nh}}$. This result is obtainedby carefully employing techniques of Malliavin Calculus.

Correlative light and electron microscopy in parasite research.

The interaction of a parasite and a host cell is a complex process, which involves several steps: (1) attachment to the plasma membrane, (2) entry inside the host cell, and (3) hijacking of the metabolism of the host. In biochemical experiments, only an event averaged over the whole cell population can be analyzed. The power of microscopy, however, is to investigate individual events in individual cells. Therefore, parasitologists frequently perform experiments with fluorescence microscopy using different dyes to label structures of the parasite or the host cell. Though the resolution of light microscopy has greatly improved, it is not sufficient to reveal interactions at the ultrastructural level. Furthermore, only specifically labeled structures can be seen and related to each other. Here, we want to demonstrate the additional value of electron microscopy in this area of research. Investigation of the different steps of parasite-host cell interaction by electron microscopy, however, is often hampered by the fact that there are only a few cells infected, and therefore it is difficult to find enough cells to study. A solution is to profit from low magnification, hence large overview, and specific location of the players by fluorescence labels in a light microscope with the high power resolution and structural information provided by an electron microscope, in short by correlative light and electron microscopy.

The struggle against creative accounting: Is "true and fair view" part of the problem or part of the solution?

Creative accounting is a growing issue of interest in Spain. In this article we argue that the concept true and fair view can limit or promote the use of creative accounting depending upon its interpretation. We review the range of meanings that true and fair view can take at an international level and compare the experience of the United Kingdom with the Australian one by analysing the use of true and fair view to limit creative accounting. Finally, we suggest lines of action to be considered by the Spanish accounting standards-setting institutions.

Tectonics of the Simplon massif and Lepontine gneiss dome: deformation structures due to collision between the underthrusting European plate and the Adriatic indenter

this study presents a review of published geological data, combined with original observations on the tectonics of the simplon massif and the Lepontine gneiss dome in the Western Alps. New observations concern the geometry of the Oligocene Vanzone back fold, formed under amphibolite facies conditions, and of its root between Domodossola and Locarno, which is cut at an acute angle by the Miocene, epi- to anchizonal, dextral centovalli strike-slip fault. the structures of the simplon massif result from collision over 50 Ma between two plate boundaries with a different geometry: the underthrusted European plate and the Adriatic indenter. Detailed mapping and analysis of a complex structural interference pattern, combined with observations on the metamorphic grade of the superimposed structures and radiometric data, allow a kinematic model to be developed for this zone of oblique continental collision. the following main Alpine tectonic phases and structures may be distinguished: 1. NW-directed nappe emplacement, starting in the Early Eocene (similar to 50 Ma); 2. W, SW and S- verging transverse folds; 3. transpressional movements on the dextral simplon ductile shear zone since similar to 32 Ma; 4. formation of the Bergell - Vanzone backfolds and of the southern steep belt during the Oligocene, emplacement of the mantle derived 31 - 29 Ma Bergell and Biella granodiorites and porphyritic andesites as well as intrusions of 29-25 Ma crustal aplites and pegmatites; 5. formation of the dextral discrete Rhone-Simplon line and the centovalli line during the Miocene, accompanied by the pull-apart development of the Lepontine gneiss dome - Dent blanche (Valpelline) depression. It is suggested that movements of shortening in fan shaped NW, W and sW directions accompanied the more regular NW- to WNW-directed displacement of the Adriatic indenter during continental collision.