Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts

A comparison of the point forecasts and the probability distributions of inflation and output growth made by individual respondents to the US Survey of Professional Forecasters indicates that the two sets of forecasts are sometimes inconsistent. We evaluate a number of possible explanations, and find that not all forecasters update their histogram forecasts as new information arrives. This is supported by the finding that the point forecasts are more accurate than the histograms in terms of first-moment prediction.

Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum, Part 1: experiments and large-scale features

A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid-Holocene through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). This study presents the large-scale features of the simulated climates and compares the new model results to those of the atmospheric models from the first phase of the PMIP, for which sea surface temperature was prescribed or computed using simple slab ocean formulations. We consider the large-scale features of the climate change, pointing out some of the major differences between the different sets of experiments. We show in particular that systematic differences between PMIP1 and PMIP2 simulations are due to the interactive ocean, such as the amplification of the African monsoon at the Mid-Holocene or the change in precipitation in mid-latitudes at the LGM. Also the PMIP2 simulations are in general in better agreement with data than PMIP1 simulations.

A multidimensional comparison of discourse organization in English and Chinese university students' argumentative writing

Three methodological limitations in English-Chinese contrastive rhetoric research have been identified in previous research, namely: the failure to control for the quality of L1 data; an inference approach to interpreting the relationship between L1 and L2 writing; and a focus on national cultural factors in interpreting rhetorical differences. Addressing these limitations, the current study examined the presence or absence and placement of thesis statement and topic sentences in four sets of argumentative texts produced by three groups of university students. We found that Chinese students tended to favour a direct/deductive approach in their English and Chinese writing, while native English writers typically adopted an indirect/inductive approach. This study argues for a dynamic and ecological interpretation of rhetorical practices in different languages and cultures.

An analysis of UK policies for domestic energy reduction using an agent based tool

This paper introduces a new agent-based model, which incorporates the actions of individual homeowners in a long-term domestic stock model, and details how it was applied in energy policy analysis. The results indicate that current policies are likely to fall significantly short of the 80% target and suggest that current subsidy levels need re-examining. In the model, current subsidy levels appear to offer too much support to some technologies, which in turn leads to the suppression of other technologies that have a greater energy saving potential. The model can be used by policy makers to develop further scenarios to find alternative, more effective, sets of policy measures. The model is currently limited to the owner-occupied stock in England, although it can be expanded, subject to the availability of data.

Autobiographical memory distributions for negative self-images: memories are organised around negative as well as positive aspects of identity

The relationship between developmental experiences, and an individual’s emerging beliefs about themselves and the world, is central to many forms of psychotherapy. People suffering from a variety of mental health problems have been shown to use negative memories when defining the self, however little is known about how these negative memories might be organised and relate to negative self-images. In two online studies with middle-aged (N = 18; Study 1) and young (N = 56; Study 2) adults, we found that participants’ negative self-images (e.g., I am a failure) were associated with sets of autobiographical memories that formed clustered distributions around times of self-formation, in much the same pattern as for positive self-images (e.g., I am talented). This novel result shows that highly organised sets of salient memories may be responsible for perpetuating negative beliefs about the self. Implications for therapy are discussed.

Identification of potential drug targets in Salmonella Typhimurium using metabolic modelling and experimental validation

almonella enterica serovar Typhimurium is an established model organism for Gram-negative, intracellular pathogens. Owing to the rapid spread of resistance to antibiotics among this group of pathogens, new approaches to identify suitable target proteins are required. Based on the genome sequence of Salmonella Typhimurium and associated databases, a genome-scale metabolic model was constructed. Output was based on an experimental determination of the biomass of Salmonella when growing in glucose minimal medium. Linear programming was used to simulate variations in energy demand, while growing in glucose minimal medium. By grouping reactions with similar flux responses, a sub-network of 34 reactions responding to this variation was identified (the catabolic core). This network was used to identify sets of one and two reactions, that when removed from the genome-scale model interfered with energy and biomass generation. 11 such sets were found to be essential for the production of biomass precursors. Experimental investigation of 7 of these showed that knock-outs of the associated genes resulted in attenuated growth for 4 pairs of reactions, while 3 single reactions were shown to be essential for growth.

Phytoplankton–zooplankton dynamics in the ‘presence’ or ‘absence’ of toxic phytoplankton

The inhibitory effects of toxin-producing phytoplankton (TPP) on zooplankton modulate the dynamics of marine plankton. In this article, we employ simple mathematical models to compare theoretically the dynamics of phytoplankton–zooplankton interaction in situations where the TPP are present with those where TPP are absent. We consider two sets of three-component interaction models: one that does not include the effect of TPP and the other that does. The negative effects of TPP on zooplankton is described by a non-linear interaction term. Extensive theoretical analyses of the models have been performed to understand the qualitative behaviour of the model systems around every possible equilibria. The results of local-stability analysis and numerical simulations demonstrate that the two model-systems differ qualitatively with regard to oscillations and stability. The model system that does not include TPP is asymptotically stable around the coexisting equilibria, whereas, the system that includes TPP oscillates for a range of parametric values associated with toxin-inhibition rate and competition coefficients. Our analysis suggests that the qualitative dynamics of the plankton–zooplankton interactions are very likely to alter due to the presence of TPP species, and therefore the effects of TPP should be considered carefully while modelling plankton dynamics.

Transmission of wireless power by magnetic resonance

The work involves investigation of a type of wireless power system wherein its analysis will yield the construction of a prototype modeled as a singular technological artifact. It is through exploration of the artifact that forms the intellectual basis for not only its prototypical forms, but suggestive of variant forms not yet discovered. Through the process it is greatly clarified the role of the artifact, its most suitable application given the constraints on the delivery problem, and optimization strategies to improve it. In order to improve maturity and contribute to a body of knowledge, this document proposes research utilizing mid-field region, efficient inductive-transfer for the purposes of removing wired connections and electrical contacts. While the description seems enough to state the purpose of this work, it does not convey the compromises of having to redraw the lines of demarcation between near and far-field in the traditional method of broadcasting. Two striking scenarios are addressed in this thesis: Firstly, the mathematical explanation of wireless power is due to J.C. Maxwell's original equations, secondly, the behavior of wireless power in the circuit is due to Joseph Larmor's fundamental works on the dynamics of the field concept. A model of propagation will be presented which matches observations in experiments. A modified model of the dipole will be presented to address the phenomena observed in the theory and experiments. Two distinct sets of experiments will test the concept of single and two coupled-modes. In a more esoteric context of the zero and first-order magnetic field, the suggestion of a third coupled-mode is presented. Through the remaking of wireless power in this context, it is the intention of the author to show the reader that those things lost to history, bound to a path of complete obscurity, are once again innovative and useful ideas.

The relationship between entrepreneurial marketing and the characteristics of Thai hotels and their managers

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore empirically whether there are meaningful relationships between key entrepreneurial marketing (EM) variables and the demographic characteristics of the organization and its manager. Design/methodology/approach – The data were gathered from a sample of 369 hotels from all regions of Thailand through the use of a postal survey. Several multiple regression models were used to test the relationships in the study. Interaction terms were added to some models to test the moderating effects of major demographic variables on various EM attributes. Findings – The study shows which types of hotels and which types of managers were associated with EM characteristics. The results indicate that demographic characteristics, such as age, size, location, experience, and gender, significantly explain sets of entrepreneurial marketing variables. It was found, for instance, that both a young hotel and a large hotel are positively associated with entrepreneurial marketing, while owner management is positively associated with market orientation and negatively associated with growth aspirations but has no significant relationship with entrepreneurial orientation. Originality/value – The paper provides a comprehensive overview of selected relationships between key EM dimensions in the existing literature. It is suggested that future research involves a more in-depth exploration of some of the relationships found in this study.

Differential interference effects of negative emotional states on subsequent semantic and perceptual processing

Past studies have revealed that encountering negative events interferes with cognitive processing of subsequent stimuli. The present study investigates whether negative events affect semantic and perceptual processing differently. Presentation of negative pictures produced slower reaction times than neutral or positive pictures in tasks that require semantic processing, such as natural or man-made judgments about drawings of objects, commonness judgments about objects, and categorical judgments about pairs of words. In contrast, negative picture presentation did not slow down judgments in subsequent perceptual processing (e.g., color judgments about words, size judgments about objects). The subjective arousal level of negative pictures did not modulate the interference effects on semantic or perceptual processing. These findings indicate that encountering negative emotional events interferes with semantic processing of subsequent stimuli more strongly than perceptual processing, and that not all types of subsequent cognitive processing are impaired by negative events.

The SPARC Data Initiative: Comparison of upper troposphere/lower stratosphere ozone climatologies from limb-viewing instruments and the nadir-viewing Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer

We present the first comprehensive intercomparison of currently available satellite ozone climatologies in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) (300–70 hPa) as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative. The Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument is the only nadir-viewing instrument in this initiative, as well as the only instrument with a focus on tropospheric composition. We apply the TES observational operator to ozone climatologies from the more highly vertically resolved limb-viewing instruments. This minimizes the impact of differences in vertical resolution among the instruments and allows identification of systematic differences in the large-scale structure and variability of UTLS ozone. We find that the climatologies from most of the limb-viewing instruments show positive differences (ranging from 5 to 75%) with respect to TES in the tropical UTLS, and comparison to a “zonal mean” ozonesonde climatology indicates that these differences likely represent a positive bias for p ≤ 100 hPa. In the extratropics, there is good agreement among the climatologies regarding the timing and magnitude of the ozone seasonal cycle (differences in the peak-to-peak amplitude of <15%) when the TES observational operator is applied, as well as very consistent midlatitude interannual variability. The discrepancies in ozone temporal variability are larger in the tropics, with differences between the data sets of up to 55% in the seasonal cycle amplitude. However, the differences among the climatologies are everywhere much smaller than the range produced by current chemistry-climate models, indicating that the multiple-instrument ensemble is useful for quantitatively evaluating these models.

Simulation of a diffusion driven mobile robot

In this paper, we investigate the possibility to control a mobile robot via a sensory-motory coupling utilizing diffusion system. For this purpose, we implemented a simulation of the diffusion process of chemicals and the kinematics of the mobile robot. In comparison to the original Braitenberg vehicle in which sensorymotor coupling is tightly realised by hardwiring, our system employs the soft coupling. The mobile robot has two sets of independent sensory-motor unit, two sensors are implemented in front and two motors on each side of the robot. The framework used for the sensory-motor coupling was such that 1) Place two electrodes in the medium 2) Drop a certain amount of Chemical U and V related to the distance to the walls and the intensity of the light 3) Place other two electrodes in the medium 4) Measure the concentration of Chemical U and V to actuate the motors on both sides of the robot. The environment was constructed with four surrounding walls and a light source located at the center. Depending on the design parameters and initial conditions, the robot was able to successfully avoid the wall and light. More interestingly, the diffusion process in the sensory-motor coupling provided the robot with a simple form of memory which would not have been possible with a control framework based on a hard-wired electric circuit.

A pilot study investigating the effects of a single dose of a flavonoid-rich blueberry drink on memory in 8-10 year old children

Recent evidence from animal and adult human subjects has demonstrated potential benefits to cognition from flavonoid supplementation. This study aimed to investigate whether these cognitive benefits extended to a sample of school-aged children. Using a cross-over design, with a wash out of at least seven days between drinks, fourteen 8-10 year old children consumed either a flavonoid-rich blueberry drink or matched vehicle. Two hours after consumption, subjects completed a battery of five cognitive tests comprising the Go-NoGo, Stroop, Rey’s Auditory Verbal Learning Task, Object Location Task, and a Visual N-back. In comparison to vehicle, the blueberry drink produced significant improvements in the delayed recall of a previously learned list of words, showing for the first time a cognitive benefit for acute flavonoid intervention in children. However, performance on a measure of proactive interference indicated that the blueberry intervention led to a greater negative impact of previously memorised words on the encoding of a set of new words. There was no benefit of our blueberry intervention for measures of attention, response inhibition or visuo-spatial memory. While findings are mixed, the improvements in delayed recall found in this pilot study suggest that, following acute flavonoid-rich blueberry interventions, school aged children encode memory items more effectively.

Grammatical gender and the notion of default: insights from language acquisition

The aim of this study is to investigate the contrast in the timing of acquisition of grammatical gender attested in Dutch and Greek child learners. Greek children show precocious acquisition of neuter gender in particular, while Dutch children experience a long delay in the acquisition of neuter nouns, which extends to school age. For both Dutch and Greek, neuter has been claimed to be the default gender value on grounds of syntactic distribution in contexts where gender agreement is inert. To reconcile the contrast between the learner and the language facts in Dutch, as well as the contrast in the timing between Greek and Dutch monolingual child learners, we consider two sets of criteria to define the notion of default: one set pertains to the notion of linguistic default and the other to the notion of learner default. We suggest that, whereas Greek neuter is both the linguistic and the learner default value, Dutch neuter is the linguistic but not the learner default, leading to a learnability problem.

Analysis of incoherent scatter radar data from non-thermal F-region plasma

A procedure is presented for fitting incoherent scatter radar data from non-thermal F-region ionospheric plasma, using theoretical spectra previously predicted. It is found that values of the shape distortion factor D∗, associated with deviations of the ion velocity distribution from a Maxwellian distribution, and ion temperatures can be deduced (the results being independent of the path of iteration) if the angle between the line-of-sight and the geomagnetic field is larger than about 15–20°. The procedure can be used with one or both of two sets of assumptions. These concern the validity of the adopted model for the line-of-sight ion velocity distribution in the one case or for the full three-dimensional ion velocity distribution function in the other. The distribution function employed was developed to describe the line-of-sight velocity distribution for large aspect angles, but both experimental data and Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the form of the field-perpendicular distribution can also describe the distribution at more general aspect angles. The assumption of this form for the line-of-sight velocity distribution at a general aspect angle enables rigorous derivation of values of the one-dimensional, line-of-sight ion temperature. With some additional assumptions (principally that the field-parallel distribution is always Maxwellian and there is a simple relationship between the ion temperature anisotropy and the distortion of the field-perpendicular distribution from a Maxwellian), fits to data for large aspect angles enable determination of line-of-sight temperatures at all aspect angles and hence, of the average ion temperature and the ion temperature anisotropy. For small aspect angles, the analysis is restricted to the determination of the line-of-sight ion temperature because the theoretical spectrum is insensitive to non-thermal effects when the plasma is viewed along directions almost parallel to the magnetic field. This limitation is expected to apply to any realistic model of the ion velocity distribution function and its consequences are discussed. Fit strategies which allow for mixed ion composition are also considered. Examples of fits to data from various EISCAT observing programmes are presented.