Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion

Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Slowing down a pine invasion despite uncertainty in demography and dispersal

1. Management decisions regarding invasive plants often have to be made quickly and in the face of fragmentary knowledge of their population dynamics. However, recommendations are commonly made on the basis of only a restricted set of parameters. Without addressing uncertainty and variability in model parameters we risk ineffective management, resulting in wasted resources and an escalating problem if early chances to control spread are missed. 2. Using available data for Pinus nigra in ungrazed and grazed grassland and shrubland in New Zealand, we parameterized a stage-structured spread model to calculate invasion wave speed, population growth rate and their sensitivities and elasticities to population parameters. Uncertainty distributions of parameters were used with the model to generate confidence intervals (CI) about the model predictions. 3. Ungrazed grassland environments were most vulnerable to invasion and the highest elasticities and sensitivities of invasion speed were to long-distance dispersal parameters. However, there was overlap between the elasticity and sensitivity CI on juvenile survival, seedling establishment and long-distance dispersal parameters, indicating overlap in their effects on invasion speed. 4. While elasticity of invasion speed to long-distance dispersal was highest in shrubland environments, there was overlap with the CI of elasticity to juvenile survival. In shrubland invasion speed was most sensitive to the probability of establishment, especially when establishment was low. In the grazed environment elasticity and sensitivity of invasion speed to the severity of grazing were consistently highest. Management recommendations based on elasticities and sensitivities depend on the vulnerability of the habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications. Despite considerable uncertainty in demography and dispersal, robust management recommendations emerged from the model. Proportional or absolute reductions in long-distance dispersal, juvenile survival and seedling establishment parameters have the potential to reduce wave speed substantially. Plantations of wind-dispersed invasive conifers should not be sited on exposed sites vulnerable to long-distance dispersal events, and trees in these sites should be removed. Invasion speed can also be reduced by removing seedlings, establishing competitive shrubs and grazing. Incorporating uncertainty into the modelling process increases our confidence in the wide applicability of the management strategies recommended here.

Embedding a restricted class of partial K-4-designs

Given a partial K-4-design (X, P), if x is an element of X is a vertex which occurs in exactly one block of P, then call x a free vertex. In this paper, a technique is described for obtaining a cubic embedding of any partial K-4-design with the property that every block in the partial design contains at least two free vertices.

Entanglement under restricted operations: Analogy to mixed-state entanglement

We show that the classification of bipartite pure entangled states when local quantum operations are restricted yields a structure that is analogous in many respects to that of mixed-state entanglement. Specifically, we develop this analogy by restricting operations through local superselection rules, and show that such exotic phenomena as bound entanglement and activation arise using pure states in this setting. This analogy aids in resolving several conceptual puzzles in the study of entanglement under restricted operations. In particular, we demonstrate that several types of quantum optical states that possess confusing entanglement properties are analogous to bound entangled states. Also, the classification of pure-state entanglement under restricted operations can be much simpler than for mixed-state entanglement. For instance, in the case of local Abelian superselection rules all questions concerning distillability can be resolved.

Restricted mating dispersal and strong breeding group structure in a mid-sized marsupial mammal (Petrogale penicillata)

Ecological genetic studies have demonstrated that spatial patterns of mating dispersal, the dispersal of gametes through mating behaviour, can facilitate inbreeding avoidance and strongly influence the structure of populations, particularly in highly philopatric species. Elements of breeding group dynamics, such as strong structuring and sex-biased dispersal among groups, can also minimize inbreeding and positively influence levels of genetic diversity within populations. Rock-wallabies are highly philopatric mid-sized mammals whose strong dependence on rocky terrain has resulted in series of discreet, small colonies in the landscape. Populations show no signs of inbreeding and maintain high levels of genetic diversity despite strong patterns of limited gene flow within and among colonies. We used this species to investigate the importance of mating dispersal and breeding group structure to inbreeding avoidance within a 'small' population. We examined the spatial patterns of mating dispersal, the extent of kinship within breeding groups, and the degree of relatedness among brush-tailed rock-wallaby breeding pairs within a colony in southeast Queensland. Parentage data revealed remarkably restricted mating dispersal and strong breeding group structuring for a mid-sized mammal. Breeding groups showed significant levels of female kinship with evidence of male dispersal among groups. We found no evidence for inbreeding avoidance through mate choice; however, anecdotal data suggest the importance of life history traits to inbreeding avoidance between first-degree relatives. We suggest that the restricted pattern of mating dispersal and strong breeding group structuring facilitates inbreeding avoidance within colonies. These results provide insight into the population structure and maintenance of genetic diversity within colonies of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby.