Bayesian inference of traffic volumes based on Bluetooth data

The study of the relationship between macroscopic traffic parameters, such as flow, speed and travel time, is essential to the understanding of the behaviour of freeway and arterial roads. However, the temporal dynamics of these parameters are difficult to model, especially for arterial roads, where the process of traffic change is driven by a variety of variables. The introduction of the Bluetooth technology into the transportation area has proven exceptionally useful for monitoring vehicular traffic, as it allows reliable estimation of travel times and traffic demands. In this work, we propose an approach based on Bayesian networks for analyzing and predicting the complex dynamics of flow or volume, based on travel time observations from Bluetooth sensors. The spatio-temporal relationship between volume and travel time is captured through a first-order transition model, and a univariate Gaussian sensor model. The two models are trained and tested on travel time and volume data, from an arterial link, collected over a period of six days. To reduce the computational costs of the inference tasks, volume is converted into a discrete variable. The discretization process is carried out through a Self-Organizing Map. Preliminary results show that a simple Bayesian network can effectively estimate and predict the complex temporal dynamics of arterial volumes from the travel time data. Not only is the model well suited to produce posterior distributions over single past, current and future states; but it also allows computing the estimations of joint distributions, over sequences of states. Furthermore, the Bayesian network can achieve excellent prediction, even when the stream of travel time observation is partially incomplete.

Vote with your feet : hyperlocal public polling for urban screens

Technological advances have led to an ongoing spread of public displays in urban areas. However, they still mostly show passive content such as commercials and digital signage. Researchers took notice of their potential to spark situated civic discourse in public space and have begun working on interactive public display applications. Attracting people’s attention and providing a low barrier for user participation have been identified as major challenges in their design. This thesis presents Vote With Your Feet, a hyperlocal public polling tool for urban screens allowing users to express their opinions. Similar to vox populi interviews on TV or polls on news websites, the tool is meant to reflect the mindset of the community on topics such as current affairs, cultural identity and local matters. It shows one Yes/No question at a time and enables users to vote by stepping on one of two tangible buttons on the ground. This user interface was introduced to attract people’s attention and to lower participation barriers. Vote With Your Feet was informed by a user-centred design approach that included a focus group, expert interviews and extensive preliminary user studies in the wild. Deployed at a bus stop, Vote With Your Feet was evaluated in a field study over the course of several days. Observations of people and interviews with 30 participants revealed that the novel interaction technology was perceived as inviting and that Vote With Your Feet can spark discussions among co-located people.

Submission : Proposed reforms to youth justice in Queensland

The proposed reforms to the youth justice system in Queensland are premised on the assumption that offending by young people is increasing. We noted (Carrington, Dwyer, Hutchinson and Richards 2012, 8) in a recent submission about the boot camps legislation that: "Statistics suggest that this concern is not warranted. Certainly studies show that ‘rates per 100,000 juveniles in detention in Queensland have been relatively stable compared with the national trend’ (Richards 2011) and that rates of detention of child offenders have declined generally in Australia over the last three decades. Youth offending statistics are affected by the diversion options used by the police, as well as by the numbers and levels of policing, and any special strategies such as Operation Colossus in the northern part of the state. ‘Community concern’ about crime does not always reflect the true rates of crime across Queensland. Policy should be based on valid evidence, not on ‘community concern’. With stable numbers of young people being detained in Australia, the research clearly suggests that youth offending is not escalating."...

Improving short utterance i-vector speaker verification using utterance variance modelling and compensation techniques

This paper proposes techniques to improve the performance of i-vector based speaker verification systems when only short utterances are available. Short-length utterance i-vectors vary with speaker, session variations, and the phonetic content of the utterance. Well established methods such as linear discriminant analysis (LDA), source-normalized LDA (SN-LDA) and within-class covariance normalisation (WCCN) exist for compensating the session variation but we have identified the variability introduced by phonetic content due to utterance variation as an additional source of degradation when short-duration utterances are used. To compensate for utterance variations in short i-vector speaker verification systems using cosine similarity scoring (CSS), we have introduced a short utterance variance normalization (SUVN) technique and a short utterance variance (SUV) modelling approach at the i-vector feature level. A combination of SUVN with LDA and SN-LDA is proposed to compensate the session and utterance variations and is shown to provide improvement in performance over the traditional approach of using LDA and/or SN-LDA followed by WCCN. An alternative approach is also introduced using probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) approach to directly model the SUV. The combination of SUVN, LDA and SN-LDA followed by SUV PLDA modelling provides an improvement over the baseline PLDA approach. We also show that for this combination of techniques, the utterance variation information needs to be artificially added to full-length i-vectors for PLDA modelling.

Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China

Background Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Methods Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991–2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. Results There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. Conclusions The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.

Learning routines used by firms during construction of infrastructure projects using the alliance procurement method

Collaborative contracting has emerged over the past 15 years as an innovative project delivery framework that is particularly suited to infrastructure projects. Australia leads the world in the development of project and program alliance approaches to collaborative delivery. These approaches are considered to promise superior project results. However, very little is known about the learning routines that are most widely used in support of collaborative projects in general and alliance projects in particular. The literature on absorptive capacity and dynamic capabilities indicates that such learning enhances project performance. The learning routines employed at corporate level during the operation of collaborative infrastructure projects in Australia were examined through a large survey conducted in 2013. This paper presents a descriptive summary of the preliminary findings. The survey captured the experiences of 320 practitioners of collaborative construction projects, including public and private sector clients, contractors, consultants and suppliers (three per cent of projects were located in New Zealand, but for brevity’s sake the sample is referred to as Australian). The majority of projects identified used alliances (78.6%); whilst 9% used Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) contracts and 2.7% used Early Tender Involvement contracts, which are ‘slimmer’ types of collaborative contract. The remaining 9.7% of respondents used traditional contracts that employed some collaborative elements. The majority of projects were delivered for public sector clients (86.3%), and/or clients experienced with asset procurement (89.6%). All of the projects delivered infrastructure assets; one third in the road sector, one third in the water sector, one fifth in the rail sector, and the rest spread across energy, building and mining. Learning routines were explored within three interconnected phases: knowledge exploration, transformation and exploitation. The results show that explorative and exploitative learning routines were applied to a similar extent. Transformative routines were applied to a relatively low extent. It was also found that the most highly applied routine is ‘regularly applying new knowledge to collaborative projects’; and the least popular routine was ‘staff incentives to encourage information sharing about collaborative projects’. Future research planned by the authors will examine the impact of these routines on project performance.

Consumer perceptions of trade show effectiveness : scale development and validation within a B2C context

Purpose This paper develops and estimates a model to measure consumer perceptions of trade show effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach Data were collected at three separate B2C trade shows. Study 1 (n=47) involved field interviews with data subjected to qualitative item generation and content analysis. Study 2 data (n=147) were subjected to exploratory factor analysis and item-total correlation to identify a preliminary factor structure for the effectiveness construct and to test for reliability. In Study 3 (n=592), confirmatory factor analysis was undertaken to more rigorously test the factor structure and generalise across industries. Validity testing was also performed. Findings A three-dimensional factor structure for assessing consumer visitors’ perceptions of trade show effectiveness was produced incorporating research, operational, and entertainment components. Research limitations/implications Data were collected in Australia and results may not generalise across cultural boundaries. Practical implications The resulting measurement model may be used as a reliable post-hoc diagnostic tool to identify areas of trade show effectiveness where specific performance improvements are needed. Results indicate that exhibitors and organisers of B2C trade shows should consider effectiveness as a multidimensional phenomenon with entertainment, product / industry research, and the facilitation of purchase decision-making processes and problem resolution being key objectives for consumer attendees. These elements of effectiveness should each be addressed by exhibitors and organisers in planning their displays and events. Originality/value This is the first study to provide an empirically valid model for assessing trade show effectiveness from the consumer visitor’s perspective.

From ‘broadcast yourself’ to ‘follow your interests’ : making over social media

In this article I briefly trace the complex and incremental but significant ways that social media platforms have been transformed since the ‘Web 2.0’ moment of the early 2000s, identifying some common trajectories across several platforms, and discussing their consequences for how users – and their capacity for creative agency – are positioned. I argue that the maintenance of balanced tensions between accessibility and openness is important to the ongoing prospects of social and cultural innovation in social media.

Conservative surgical debridement as a burn treatment : supporting evidence from a porcine burn model

In thermal deep-dermal burns, surgical debridement is normally used in conjunction with skin grafting or skin substitutes and debridement alone as a burn treatment is not usually practiced. The current study addresses whether or not debridement alone would enhance burn wound healing on small deep-dermal-partial thickness burns. This was a prospective and blinded experimental trial using a porcine deep-dermal-partial thickness burn model. Four burns, approximately 50 cm(2) in size, were created on each of eight pigs. Two burns from each pig were immediately surgically debrided and the other two were not debrided as the internal control. Hydrate gel together with paraffin gauze were used to cover the burns for four pigs and silver dressings for the other four. Clinical assessment of wound healing was conducted over a 6-week period. Skin samples were collected at the end of the experiment and histopathological evaluation was performed. The results show thinner scar formation and lower scar height in the debrided compared with nondebrided wounds in the hydrate gel/paraffin gauze groups. There were no statistically significant differences in wound healing assessment between the debrided and nondebrided wounds dressed with silver dressings. This study provides supporting evidence that immediate debridement with an appropriate dressing and without skin grafting may promote wound healing, suggesting its potential benefit for clinical patients.

Management of over-the-counter insomnia complaints in Australian community pharmacies: A standardized patient study

Objective To evaluate the current management of over-the-counter (OTC) insomnia complaints in Australian community pharmacies using standardized patient methodology. Methods Trained standardized patients visited a sample of 100 randomly selected South East Queensland community pharmacies in June 2011. The standardized patients enacted two OTC insomnia scenarios: a direct product request (DPR) (n = 50) and a symptom-based request (SBR) (n = 50). Results of the interactions were documented immediately after each visit and evaluated using the Pharmaceutical Society of Australia's WHAT STOP GO protocol as a standard comparison. Key findings Of all DPRs, 30% were handled entirely by the pharmacist, 70% of staff enquired about specific symptoms and 28% investigated the cause of insomnia. No staff investigated the frequency of product use. The DPR scenario resulted in a 92% supply of the requested doxylamine product (Restavit). In the SBR scenario, 18% of requests were handled entirely by the pharmacist, 58% of staff enquired about specific symptoms and 44% investigated the cause of insomnia. Staff recommended medicated products (38%), or herbal (78%) or non-drug techniques (18%). Investigation into smoking and alcohol intake was not undertaken in DPR or SBR interactions, while questioning on caffeine intake was undertaken in 2 and 14% of cases respectively. There were no significant differences found in the handling of sleep requests by pharmacists compared to pharmacy assistants. Conclusion The standardized patient methodology was a successful way to assess the community pharmacy counselling provided with OTC sleep requests and suboptimal staff responses were found when compared with recommended practice standards.

Spatial Patterns of Malaria Reported Deaths in Yunnan Province, China

Malaria has been a heavy social and health burden in the remote and poor areas in southern China. Analyses of malaria epidemic patterns can uncover important features of malaria transmission. This study identified spatial clusters, seasonal patterns, and geographic variations of malaria deaths at a county level in Yunnan, China, during 1991–2010. A discrete Poisson model was used to identify purely spatial clusters of malaria deaths. Logistic regression analysis was performed to detect changes in geographic patterns. The results show that malaria mortality had declined in Yunnan over the study period and the most likely spatial clusters (relative risk [RR] = 23.03–32.06, P < 0.001) of malaria deaths were identified in western Yunnan along the China–Myanmar border. The highest risk of malaria deaths occurred in autumn (RR = 58.91, P < 0.001) and summer (RR = 31.91, P < 0.001). The results suggested that the geographic distribution of malaria deaths was significantly changed with longitude, which indicated there was decreased mortality of malaria in eastern areas over the last two decades, although there was no significant change in latitude during the same period. Public health interventions should target populations in western Yunnan along border areas, especially focusing on floating populations crossing international borders.

Exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation is associated with a decreased folate status in women of childbearing age

In vitro studies indicate that folate in collected human blood is vulnerable to degradation after exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. This has raised concerns about folate depletion in individuals with high sun exposure. Here, we investigate the association between personal solar UV radiation exposure and serum folate concentration, using a three-week prospective study that was undertaken in females aged 18–47 years in Brisbane, Australia (153 E, 27 S). Following two weeks of supplementation with 500 μg of folic acid daily, the change in serum folate status was assessed over a 7-day period of measured personal sun exposure. Compared to participants with personal UV exposures of <200 Joules per day, participants with personal UV exposures of 200–599 and >600 Joules per day had significantly higher depletion of serum folate (p = 0.015). Multivariable analysis revealed personal UV exposure as the strongest predictor accounting for 20% of the overall change in serum folate (Standardised B = −0.49; t = −3.75; p = <0.01). These data show that increasing solar UV radiation exposures reduces the effectiveness of folic acid supplementation. The consequences of this association may be most pronounced for vulnerable individuals, such as women who are pregnant or of childbearing age with high sun exposures.

Towards an operational understanding of wellness

Despite the increased focus on wellness and wellness programs there is still no consensus as to what wellness is. This is in part because programs do not define wellness and in part because studies and programs employ vastly different outcome measures that arguably reflect other constructs such as health, well-being, and quality of life. In this paper, we suggest an operational understanding of wellness and show how wellness differs from health, quality of life and well-being. Academic literature on the subject of health, wellness, well-being and quality of life reveals confusion, as theorists and researchers frequently describe each of these constructs in a very similar manner. We argue that elements such as the context and target population in which the term wellness is used are critical for our understanding of the construct. While it is inevitable that cross-over exists between similar constructs, wellness does have distinctly identifiable features. These include: being both holistic and multidimensional, being focused on lifestyle behaviours, being about actions or processes, recognising the inter-relatedness between person and environment, and being unique by way of goal and context.

Modifying behaviour to reduce over-speeding in work-related drivers : an objective approach

The goal of this study was to utilise an objective measurement tool, via an on-board Diagnostic tool (OBDII), to explore the effectiveness of a behaviour modification intervention designed to reduce over-speed violations in a group of work-related drivers. It was predicted that over-speed violations would be decreased following participation in a behaviour modification intervention where drivers received weekly feedback on their speeding performance and goal setting exercises. The final analysis included the on-road behaviour of 16 drivers, all of whom completed each stage of the intervention program. As predicted, over-speed violations significantly decreased from pre-test to post-test, after controlling for kilometres driven. These findings offer practical guidance for industry in developing interventions designed to improve work-related driving behaviour.

Traversability estimation for a planetary rover via experimental kernel learning in a Gaussian process framework

A critical requirement for safe autonomous navigation of a planetary rover is the ability to accurately estimate the traversability of the terrain. This work considers the problem of predicting the attitude and configuration angles of the platform from terrain representations that are often incomplete due to occlusions and sensor limitations. Using Gaussian Processes (GP) and exteroceptive data as training input, we can provide a continuous and complete representation of terrain traversability, with uncertainty in the output estimates. In this paper, we propose a novel method that focuses on exploiting the explicit correlation in vehicle attitude and configuration during operation by learning a kernel function from vehicle experience to perform GP regression. We provide an extensive experimental validation of the proposed method on a planetary rover. We show significant improvement in the accuracy of our estimation compared with results obtained using standard kernels (Squared Exponential and Neural Network), and compared to traversability estimation made over terrain models built using state-of-the-art GP techniques.