Global modeling of pollutant transport and deposition from anthropogenic emission hot spots on global scale

Urban centers significantly contribute to anthropogenic air pollution, although they cover only a minor fraction of the Earth's land surface. Since the worldwide degree of urbanization is steadily increasing, the anthropogenic contribution to air pollution from urban centers is expected to become more substantial in future air quality assessments. The main objective of this thesis was to obtain a more profound insight in the dispersion and the deposition of aerosol particles from 46 individual major population centers (MPCs) as well as the regional and global influence on the atmospheric distribution of several aerosol types. For the first time, this was assessed in one model framework, for which the global model EMAC was applied with different representations of aerosol particles. First, in an approach with passive tracers and a setup in which the results depend only on the source location and the size and the solubility of the tracers, several metrics and a regional climate classification were used to quantify the major outflow pathways, both vertically and horizontally, and to compare the balance between pollution export away from and pollution build-up around the source points. Then in a more comprehensive approach, the anthropogenic emissions of key trace species were changed at the MPC locations to determine the cumulative impact of the MPC emissions on the atmospheric aerosol burdens of black carbon, particulate organic matter, sulfate, and nitrate. Ten different mono-modal passive aerosol tracers were continuously released at the same constant rate at each emission point. The results clearly showed that on average about five times more mass is advected quasi-horizontally at low levels than exported into the upper troposphere. The strength of the low-level export is mainly determined by the location of the source, while the vertical transport is mainly governed by the lifting potential and the solubility of the tracers. Similar to insoluble gas phase tracers, the low-level export of aerosol tracers is strongest at middle and high latitudes, while the regions of strongest vertical export differ between aerosol (temperate winter dry) and gas phase (tropics) tracers. The emitted mass fraction that is kept around MPCs is largest in regions where aerosol tracers have short lifetimes; this mass is also critical for assessing the impact on humans. However, the number of people who live in a strongly polluted region around urban centers depends more on the population density than on the size of the area which is affected by strong air pollution. Another major result was that fine aerosol particles (diameters smaller than 2.5 micrometer) from MPCs undergo substantial long-range transport, with about half of the emitted mass being deposited beyond 1000 km away from the source. In contrast to this diluted remote deposition, there are areas around the MPCs which experience high deposition rates, especially in regions which are frequently affected by heavy precipitation or are situated in poorly ventilated locations. Moreover, most MPC aerosol emissions are removed over land surfaces. In particular, forests experience more deposition from MPC pollutants than other land ecosystems. In addition, it was found that the generic treatment of aerosols has no substantial influence on the major conclusions drawn in this thesis. Moreover, in the more comprehensive approach, it was found that emissions of black carbon, particulate organic matter, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides from MPCs influence the atmospheric burden of various aerosol types very differently, with impacts generally being larger for secondary species, sulfate and nitrate, than for primary species, black carbon and particulate organic matter. While the changes in the burdens of sulfate, black carbon, and particulate organic matter show an almost linear response for changes in the emission strength, the formation of nitrate was found to be contingent upon many more factors, e.g., the abundance of sulfuric acid, than only upon the strength of the nitrogen oxide emissions. The generic tracer experiments were further extended to conduct the first risk assessment to obtain the cumulative risk of contamination from multiple nuclear reactor accidents on the global scale. For this, many factors had to be taken into account: the probability of major accidents, the cumulative deposition field of the radionuclide cesium-137, and a threshold value that defines contamination. By collecting the necessary data and after accounting for uncertainties, it was found that the risk is highest in western Europe, the eastern US, and in Japan, where on average contamination by major accidents is expected about every 50 years.

Process-based modelling of lichens and bryophytes and their role in global biogeochemical cycles

This thesis presents a process-based modelling approach to quantify carbon uptake by lichens and bryophytes at the global scale. Based on the modelled carbon uptake, potential global rates of nitrogen fixation, phosphorus uptake and chemical weathering by the organisms are estimated. In this way, the significance of lichens and bryophytes for global biogeochemical cycles can be assessed. The model uses gridded climate data and key properties of the habitat (e.g. disturbance intervals) to predict processes which control net carbon uptake, namely photosynthesis, respiration, water uptake and evaporation. It relies on equations used in many dynamical vegetation models, which are combined with concepts specific to lichens and bryophytes, such as poikilohydry or the effect of water content on CO2 diffusivity. To incorporate the great functional variation of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, the model parameters are characterised by broad ranges of possible values instead of a single, globally uniform value. The predicted terrestrial net uptake of 0.34 to 3.3 Gt / yr of carbon and global patterns of productivity are in accordance with empirically-derived estimates. Based on the simulated estimates of net carbon uptake, further impacts of lichens and bryophytes on biogeochemical cycles are quantified at the global scale. Thereby the focus is on three processes, namely nitrogen fixation, phosphorus uptake and chemical weathering. The presented estimates have the form of potential rates, which means that the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus is quantified which is needed by the organisms to build up biomass, also accounting for resorption and leaching of nutrients. Subsequently, the potential phosphorus uptake on bare ground is used to estimate chemical weathering by the organisms, assuming that they release weathering agents to obtain phosphorus. The predicted requirement for nitrogen ranges from 3.5 to 34 Tg / yr and for phosphorus it ranges from 0.46 to 4.6 Tg / yr. Estimates of chemical weathering are between 0.058 and 1.1 km³ / yr of rock. These values seem to have a realistic order of magnitude and they support the notion that lichens and bryophytes have the potential to play an important role for global biogeochemical cycles.

Analysis and numerical solution of the Peterlin viscoelastic model

Liquids and gasses form a vital part of nature. Many of these are complex fluids with non-Newtonian behaviour. We introduce a mathematical model describing the unsteady motion of an incompressible polymeric fluid. Each polymer molecule is treated as two beads connected by a spring. For the nonlinear spring force it is not possible to obtain a closed system of equations, unless we approximate the force law. The Peterlin approximation replaces the length of the spring by the length of the average spring. Consequently, the macroscopic dumbbell-based model for dilute polymer solutions is obtained. The model consists of the conservation of mass and momentum and time evolution of the symmetric positive definite conformation tensor, where the diffusive effects are taken into account. In two space dimensions we prove global in time existence of weak solutions. Assuming more regular data we show higher regularity and consequently uniqueness of the weak solution. For the Oseen-type Peterlin model we propose a linear pressure-stabilized characteristics finite element scheme. We derive the corresponding error estimates and we prove, for linear finite elements, the optimal first order accuracy. Theoretical error of the pressure-stabilized characteristic finite element scheme is confirmed by a series of numerical experiments.

Keller-Segel system, chemotaxis and applications to a mathematical model for Alzheimer's disease

In questa tesi viene presentato il modello di Keller-Segel per la chemiotassi, un sistema di tipo parabolico-ellittico che appare nella descrizione di molti fenomeni in ambito biologico e medico. Viene mostrata l'esistenza globale della soluzione debole del modello, per dati iniziali sufficientemente piccoli in dimensione N>2. La scelta di dati iniziali abbastanza grandi invece può causare il blow-up della soluzione e viene mostrato sotto quali condizioni questo si verifica. Infine il modello della chemiotassi è stato applicato per descrivere una fase della malattia di Alzheimer ed è stata effettuata un'analisi di stabilità del sistema.

Biomechanical model of human cornea based on stromal microstructure

The optical characteristics of the human cornea depends on the mechanical balance between the intra-ocular pressure and intrinsic tissue stiffness. A wide range of ophthalmic surgical procedures alter corneal biomechanics to induce local or global curvature changes for the correction of visual acuity. Due to the large number of surgical interventions performed every day, a deeper understanding of corneal biomechanics is needed to improve the safety of these procedures and medical devices. The aim of this study is to propose a biomechanical model of the human cornea, based on stromal microstructure. The constitutive mechanical law includes collagen fiber distribution based on X-ray scattering analysis, collagen cross-linking, and fiber uncrimping. Our results showed that the proposed model reproduced inflation and extensiometry experimental data [Elsheikh et al., Curr. Eye Res., 2007; Elsheikh et al., Exp. Eye Res., 2008] successfully. The mechanical properties obtained for different age groups demonstrated an increase in collagen cross-linking for older specimens. In future work such a model could be used to simulate non-symmetric interventions, and provide better surgical planning.

Numerical model of the human cornea based on stromal microstructure: identification of mechanical properties for two age groups

The optical quality of the human eye mainly depends on the refractive performance of the cornea. The shape of the cornea is a mechanical balance between intraocular pressure and tissue intrinsic stiffness. Several surgical procedures in ophthalmology alter the biomechanics of the cornea to provoke local or global curvature changes for vision correction. Legitimated by the large number of surgical interventions performed every day, the demand for a deeper understanding of corneal biomechanics is rising to improve the safety of procedures and medical devices. The aim of our work is to propose a numerical model of corneal biomechanics, based on the stromal microstructure. Our novel anisotropic constitutive material law features a probabilistic weighting approach to model collagen fiber distribution as observed on human cornea by Xray scattering analysis (Aghamohammadzadeh et. al., Structure, February 2004). Furthermore, collagen cross-linking was explicitly included in the strain energy function. Results showed that the proposed model is able to successfully reproduce both inflation and extensiometry experimental data (Elsheikh et. al., Curr Eye Res, 2007; Elsheikh et. al., Exp Eye Res, May 2008). In addition, the mechanical properties calculated for patients of different age groups (Group A: 65-79 years; Group B: 80-95 years) demonstrate an increased collagen cross-linking, and a decrease in collagen fiber elasticity from younger to older specimen. These findings correspond to what is known about maturing fibrous biological tissue. Since the presented model can handle different loading situations and includes the anisotropic distribution of collagen fibers, it has the potential to simulate clinical procedures involving nonsymmetrical tissue interventions. In the future, such mechanical model can be used to improve surgical planning and the design of next generation ophthalmic devices.

Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

Global Search for Minimum Energy (H2O)n Clusters, n = 3−5

The Gaussian-3 (G3) model chemistry method has been used to calculate the relative ΔG° values for all possible conformers of neutral clusters of water, (H2O)n, where n = 3−5. A complete 12-fold conformational search around each hydrogen bond produced 144, 1728, and 20 736 initial starting structures of the water trimer, tetramer, and pentamer. These structures were optimized with PM3, followed by HF/6-31G* optimization, and then with the G3 model chemistry. Only two trimers are present on the G3 potential energy hypersurface. We identified 5 tetramers and 10 pentamers on the potential energy and free-energy hypersurfaces at 298 K. None of these 17 structures were linear; all linear starting models folded into cyclic or three-dimensional structures. The cyclic pentamer is the most stable isomer at 298 K. On the basis of this and previous studies, we expect the cyclic tetramers and pentamers to be the most significant cyclic water clusters in the atmosphere.

Ability of the PM3 Quantum Mechanical Method to Model Intermolecular Hydrogen Bonding between Neutral Molecules

The PM3 semiempirical quantum-mechanical method was found to systematically describe intermolecular hydrogen bonding in small polar molecules. PM3 shows charge transfer from the donor to acceptor molecules on the order of 0.02-0.06 units of charge when strong hydrogen bonds are formed. The PM3 method is predictive; calculated hydrogen bond energies with an absolute magnitude greater than 2 kcal mol-' suggest that the global minimum is a hydrogen bonded complex; absolute energies less than 2 kcal mol-' imply that other van der Waals complexes are more stable. The geometries of the PM3 hydrogen bonded complexes agree with high-resolution spectroscopic observations, gas electron diffraction data, and high-level ab initio calculations. The main limitations in the PM3 method are the underestimation of hydrogen bond lengths by 0.1-0.2 for some systems and the underestimation of reliable experimental hydrogen bond energies by approximately 1-2 kcal mol-l. The PM3 method predicts that ammonia is a good hydrogen bond acceptor and a poor hydrogen donor when interacting with neutral molecules. Electronegativity differences between F, N, and 0 predict that donor strength follows the order F > 0 > N and acceptor strength follows the order N > 0 > F. In the calculations presented in this article, the PM3 method mirrors these electronegativity differences, predicting the F-H- - -N bond to be the strongest and the N-H- - -F bond the weakest. It appears that the PM3 Hamiltonian is able to model hydrogen bonding because of the reduction of two-center repulsive forces brought about by the parameterization of the Gaussian core-core interactions. The ability of the PM3 method to model intermolecular hydrogen bonding means reasonably accurate quantum-mechanical calculations can be applied to small biologic systems.

Economic Policies to Address the Environmental Consequences of Global Reuse

This paper summarizes a two-country model that solves for optimal tax rates to achieve efficiency in an economy with international trade in used consumer electronics. If only the developed nation can tax the disposal of e-waste, then the global Pareto Optimum can be obtained by either imposing an import tariff on used consumer electronics or subsidizing the return of e-waste for disposal in the developed country. The global Pareto Optimum can also be obtained by reducing the disposal tax in the developed country to a level below the external marginal cost of disposal should no other policy option be available.

Detection of Internal Defects in Concrete Members Using Global Vibration Characteristics

Rock-pocket and honeycomb defects impair overall stiffness, accelerate aging, reduce service life, and cause structural problems in hardened concrete members. Traditional methods for detecting such deficient volumes involve visual observations or localized nondestructive methods, which are labor-intensive, time-consuming, highly sensitive to test conditions, and require knowledge of and accessibility to defect locations. The authors propose a vibration response-based nondestructive technique that combines experimental and numerical methodologies for use in identifying the location and severity of internal defects of concrete members. The experimental component entails collecting mode shape curvatures from laboratory beam specimens with size-controlled rock pocket and honeycomb defects, and the numerical component entails simulating beam vibration response through a finite element (FE) model parameterized with three defect-identifying variables indicating location (x, coordinate along the beam length) and severity of damage (alpha, stiffness reduction and beta, mass reduction). Defects are detected by comparing the FE model predictions to experimental measurements and inferring the low number of defect-identifying variables. This method is particularly well-suited for rapid and cost-effective quality assurance for precast concrete members and for inspecting concrete members with simple geometric forms.

Global Reuse and Optimal Waste Policy

Electronic waste generated from the consumption of durable goods in developed countries is often exported to underdeveloped countries for reuse, recycling and disposal with unfortunate environmental consequences. The lack of efficient disposal policies within developing nations coupled with global free trade agreements make it difficult for consumers to internalize these costs. This paper develops a two-country model, one economically developed and the other underdeveloped, to solve for optimal tax policies necessary to achieve the efficient allocation of economic resources in an economy with a durable good available for global reuse without policy measures in the underdeveloped country. A tax in the developed country on purchases of the new durable good combined with a waste tax set below the domestic external cost of disposal is sufficient for global efficiency. The implication of allowing free global trade in electronic waste is also examined, where optimal policy resembles a global deposit-refund system.

Constraining global methane emissions and uptake by ecosystems

Natural methane (CH4) emissions from wet ecosystems are an important part of today's global CH4 budget. Climate affects the exchange of CH4 between ecosystems and the atmosphere by influencing CH4 production, oxidation, and transport in the soil. The net CH4 exchange depends on ecosystem hydrology, soil and vegetation characteristics. Here, the LPJ-WHyMe global dynamical vegetation model is used to simulate global net CH4 emissions for different ecosystems: northern peatlands (45°–90° N), naturally inundated wetlands (60° S–45° N), rice agriculture and wet mineral soils. Mineral soils are a potential CH4 sink, but can also be a source with the direction of the net exchange depending on soil moisture content. The geographical and seasonal distributions are evaluated against multi-dimensional atmospheric inversions for 2003–2005, using two independent four-dimensional variational assimilation systems. The atmospheric inversions are constrained by the atmospheric CH4 observations of the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument and global surface networks. Compared to LPJ-WHyMe the inversions result in a~significant reduction in the emissions from northern peatlands and suggest that LPJ-WHyMe maximum annual emissions peak about one month late. The inversions do not put strong constraints on the division of sources between inundated wetlands and wet mineral soils in the tropics. Based on the inversion results we diagnose model parameters in LPJ-WHyMe and simulate the surface exchange of CH4 over the period 1990–2008. Over the whole period we infer an increase of global ecosystem CH4 emissions of +1.11 Tg CH4 yr−1, not considering potential additional changes in wetland extent. The increase in simulated CH4 emissions is attributed to enhanced soil respiration resulting from the observed rise in land temperature and in atmospheric carbon dioxide that were used as input. The long-term decline of the atmospheric CH4 growth rate from 1990 to 2006 cannot be fully explained with the simulated ecosystem emissions. However, these emissions show an increasing trend of +3.62 Tg CH4 yr−1 over 2005–2008 which can partly explain the renewed increase in atmospheric CH4 concentration during recent years.