Forecasting electricity demand using generalized long memory

This paper studies the electricity hourly load demand in the area covered by a utility situated in the southeast of Brazil. We propose a stochastic model which employs generalized long memory (by means of Gegenbauer processes) to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The model is proposed for sectional data, that is, each hour’s load is studied separately as a single series. This approach avoids modeling the intricate intra-day pattern (load profile) displayed by the load, which varies throughout days of the week and seasons. The forecasting performance of the model is compared with a SARIMA benchmark using the years of 1999 and 2000 as the out-of-sample. The model clearly outperforms the benchmark. We conclude for general long memory in the series.

Potencial de produção de grãos brasileiros via fertilização e impactos nas emissões de CO2eq

Para todos os municípios Brasileiros foram coletados dados de área plantada, quantidade produzida, tipos de solos e uso do solo, para o Arroz, Feijão, Trigo, Milho e Soja. Com o auxílio de Sistema de Informações Geográficas (SIG), mapas foram elaborados, e a partir do cruzamento entre eles, produtividades por tipo de solo em áreas antropizadas foram obtidas. A partir das faixas de produtividades esperadas relativas às faixas de dosagem de adubação por nível de disponibilidade de macronutrientes primários (Nitrogênio, Fósforo e Potássio) no solo, recomendadas pela Embrapa (WebAgritec), considerou-se que cada município, sem nenhuma expansão de área, a partir de seu valor real de produtividade em 2011/12, aumentasse a mesma até o valor máximo esperado e correspondente à recomendação de dosagem de adubação relativa à faixa superior de produtividade. Considerou-se um período de dez anos para a subida de um patamar para outro de produtividade, o que permitiu um horizonte temporal das estimativas de 2011/12 até 2061/62. Projetaram-se os Consumos, Dosagens e Eficiências de Adubação, bem como os Balanços de CO2eq para os macronutrientes primários, necessários e resultantes destas novas condições. O horizonte e os volumes de produção agrícolas resultantes foram comparados com as projeções do MAPA 2021/22 e do Outlook Fiesp 2023. O potencial de volume de produção agrícola via fertilização destas cinco culturas e o impacto no balanço de CO2eq são então mensurados, culminando com a possibilidade de significativas antecipações deste volume em termos de número de safras e com o efeito benéfico no balanço de CO2eq, permitindo em virtude das áreas poupadas, postergação expressiva em termos de emissões de CO2eq

A consumption CAPM with a reference level

We study an intertemporal asset pricing model in which a representative consumer maximizes expected utility derived from both the ratio of his consumption to some reference level and this level itself. If the reference consumption level is assumed to be determined by past consumption levels, the model generalizes the usual habit formation specifications. When the reference level growth rate is made dependent on the market portfolio return and on past consumption growth, the model mixes a consumption CAPM with habit formation together with the CAPM. It therefore provides, in an expected utility framework, a generalization of the non-expected recursive utility model of Epstein and Zin (1989). When we estimate this specification with aggregate per capita consumption, we obtain economically plausible values of the preference parameters, in contrast with the habit formation or the Epstein-Zin cases taken separately. All tests performed with various preference specifications confirm that the reference level enters significantly in the pricing kernel.

Estilo de vida individual de universitários jovens com excesso de peso da Universidade Católica de Murcia-Espanha

Individual lifestyle includes health and risk behaviors that can altar health status. Excess weight is a public health problem of modern civilization and there is an estimated mean prevalence of 45% in European countries. In Spain, the Murcia Region is an area of high morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disorders. In this study we assess the differences in health and risk behaviors in ove/weight and normal weight undergraduates at the Universidad Católica San Antonio de Murcia (UCAM). Methods: Transversal design of parallel groups (overweight - cases and normal weight - control) , formed using the anthropometric technique. A questionnaire applied to a sample of 471 undergraduates of either sex, between the ages of 18 and 29 years, enrolled in 4 bachelor degree courses (ADE, CA, PER, PUB) at UCAM. We performed a standardized measurement of body mass (weight in kg), height (in meters) using a Seca® scale with calibrated stadiometer, waist and hip circumferences (in cm) with an inelastic tape and skinfolds thickness (triceps and subscapular in mm) with a Holtain® caliper, to calculate body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) and the sum of skinfolds (SSF). We applied a lifestyle questionnaire about alcohol and tobacco consumption, knowledge and behaviors related to health indicators (arterial pressure and cholesterol), diet and physical activity. The information was collected in April and May, 2001 at the UCAM laboratory of Applied Nutrition. Statistical analysis: analysis of independent groups, contingency tables that reveal which qualitativa variables show differences and associations between the groups, Pearson's chi-square,and a significance levei of p < 0.05 followed by a residual analysis (1.96). Descriptive statistics (mean and standard deviation) were used to establish the two groups: case and contrai with 65 men and 26 women each who had BMI < 25 kg/m2. Results: A total of 65 of the men assessed (14%) and 26 (6%) of the women were overweight. Mean body mass index of the case group was 27. 78 ±: 2.83 kg/m2 in the men and 26.26 ± 1.37 kg/m2 in the women, while contrai group men had mean BMI of 22.36 ± 1.72 kg/m2, while for the women it was 20.76 ±: 2.13 kg/m2. The self-declared values of weight and height were underestimated, but with high accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Thus, these can be used to calculate the BMI of overweight Spanish undergraduates. Regular vigorous physical activity was observed only in normal weight men. The analysis showed the following significant differences for the qualitativa variables of the two groups. The contrai group was interested in arterial hypertension, believed that they were not overweight, that they had no abdominal fat, and had not considered controlling 'fatty food consumption. Those who thought of controlling it sometimes, did so without professional help. However, part of the overweight group believed that they were overweight and had abdominal fat between average and considerable, had often or always considered controlling fatty foods and had often or always tried to control consumption with the help of professionals. They had always thought of engaging in physical activities, unlike the normal weight individuals. Nearly all (95%) of the overweight undergraduates and most (75%) of the normal weight group reported that they sometimes or always controlled fatty food ingestion. Mean physical activity was nearly twice as high in the summer than in the winter. Conclusions: The overweight undergraduates in this sample displayed a lifestyle with a greater number of healthy behaviors when compared to normal weight individuals

Mutagenic activity of airborne particulate matter (PM10) in a sugarcane farming area (Araraquara city, southeast Brazil)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Amylase utilization for the extrusion of dog diets

Effects of amylase addition on extruder parameters, cost of extrusion, kibble quality and digestibility of dog food were measured in two separate experiments. In experiment 1, 120 kilo-novo-alpha-amilase-unit (KNU)/kg of heat stable alpha-amylase produced by Bacillus licheniformis was added in liquid form during a preconditioning period. In experiment 23684 KNU/kg of heat stable alpha-amylase produced by Aspergillus oryzae was mixed with the ingredients before extrusion. The diets were processed in a single screw extruder and submitted to digestibility and on experiment 1 also to palatability tests. Digestibility was tested using 12 dogs, six per diet. Data were submitted to analysis of variance followed by F-test. Amylase addition altered extrusion parameters in both experiments (P<0.05), with higher output (kg of dry matter [DM]/h: 28% and 43% higher in experiments 1 and 2) and less electric energy consumption (kW to produce 100 kg DM: 22% and 29% lower in experiments 1 and 2). Kibble appearance and quality [density (g/L), cutting force (g), and starch gelatinization degree (%)] did not change with enzyme treatment (P>0.05). Likewise, enzyme addition did not change nutrient digestibility, fecal dry matter or food palatability (P<0.05). Taken together our results suggest that amylase promoted the breakdown of amylose chains, thereby reducing the dough viscosity and resistance inside the extruder which allowed for higher product flow and less electricity energy consumption without altering food quality. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Propagação de jambeiro vermelho (Syzygium malaccense L.) por estaquia de ramos herbáceos

The consumption of exotic fruits has been showing accentuated increase and the cultivated area is in expansion, generating demand for adequate culturing techniques. The Malay apple (Syzygium malaccense), with probable origin in India, has a fruit widely known and appreciated in the North and Northeasthern Brazilian states. The Malay apple tree is extremely tall and has a long juvenile period when propagated by seed, making its vegetative multiplication is desirable, to anticipate the productive period and decrease its size, and also to obtain uniform orchards. The experiment was conducted at UNESP/FCAV, Jaboticabal Campus, using Malay apple herbaceous cuttings subjected to treatments with indol butyric acid (IBA) (0; 1,000; 3,000 and 5,000 mgL(-1)) and cuttings with and without basal incision. The variables analyzed were percentage of survival and rooting of the cuttings, number and mean length of roots per cutting. The experiment was conducted under CRB on a factorial scheme (4 X 2) with 4 replicates constituted by 10 cuttings each. Data were analyzed by Tukey's mean test at 5% probability. The vegetative propagation by rooting of herbaceous cuttings of the Malay apple is possible, however, both IBA treatments and basal incision have not shown significant effect on the analyzed variables.

Reproductive indices in natural nests of giant Amazon river turtles Podocnemis expansa (Schweigger, 1812) (Testudines, Podocnemididae) in the Environmental Protection Area Meanders of the Araguaia river

Realizou-se a contagem dos ovos não eclodidos, dos filhotes vivos e mortos de Podocnemis expansa oriundos de 327 ninhos naturais, localizados nas praias da Área de Proteção Ambiental (APA) - Meandros do Rio Araguaia, onde se determinou a porcentagem de eclosão dos ovos (94,63%); não eclosão (5,37%); sobrevivência (94,24%) e mortalidade dos filhotes (5,76%), e a média de filhotes mortos durante os 15 dias no berçário (0,97%). A média do total de filhotes por ninho foi determinada pela soma do número de filhotes vivos e mortos divididos pelo total de ninhos, enquanto que a média do total de ovos por ninho foi determinada pela soma do número de filhotes vivos, mortos e ovos não eclodidos divididos pelo total de ninhos. Com isso, obtiveram-se os valores médios do número de filhotes vivos (88,98 ± 23,94); mortos (0,37 ± 0,93); ovos não eclodidos (5,07 ± 9,57), e total de ovos (94,42 ± 21,30). A eficiência reprodutiva da população selvagem de P. expansa pode ser afetada por muitos fatores ambientais, como temperatura, umidade e precipitação. Além disso, fatores influenciados pelo homem, como a presença de produtos químicos na água e a possibilidade de doenças infecciosas, também têm impacto significativo. Os dados dos índices reprodutivos obtidos neste estudo são indispensáveis para futuras investigações de anomalias de incubação.

Viabilidade econômica da utilização do biogás produzido em granja suínícola para geração de energia elétrica

A produção de biogás por meio de biodigestão anaeróbia representa um avanço para equacionar o problema dos dejetos produzidos pela suinocultura e disponibilidade de energia no meio rural. Este trabalho teve como objetivo estimar a viabilidade econômica de um sistema biointegrado para geração de eletricidade a partir do aproveitamento de dejetos de suínos. Os dados para este estudo foram coletados em uma agroindústria, onde são realizadas diversas atividades agrícolas; entretanto, a suinocultura foi selecionada para o processo de análise de biodigestão anaeróbia, pelo fato de gerar uma grande quantidade de dejetos, com dificuldade de disposição no meio ambiente, configurando um estudo de caso. O biodigestor analisado é um modelo tubular contínuo, com calha de água em alvenaria e com uma manta plástica como gasômetro, onde são depositados diariamente os dejetos de 2.300 suínos em fase de terminação. O investimento inicial para implantação foi estimado em R$ 51.537,17, e os custos anuais do sistema foram de R$ 5.708,20 com manutenção, R$ 4.390,40 com depreciação e R$ 1.366,77 com juros. Concluiu-se que o sistema de produção de biogás é viável do ponto de vista econômico, se o consumo de energia elétrica for de 35 kWh por dia, em média, onde o valor presente líquido (VLP) é de R$ 9.494,90, e a taxa interna de retorno (TIR) é de 9,34% ao ano.

Consumo de combustível na operação de subsolagem realizada antes e depois de diferentes sistemas de preparo periódico do solo

A subsolagem tem aumentado nos últimos anos de forma indiscriminada, faltando estudos que norteiem os melhores procedimentos para que novos problemas não sejam acrescentados devido a subsolagens inadequadas ou mesmo em solos onde a operação é desnecessária, e principalmente buscar redução no consumo de combustível. Dessa forma, este trabalho teve o objetivo de avaliar o consumo de combustível na operação de subsolagem efetuada antes e depois de diferentes sistemas de preparo periódico do solo, classificado como Nitossolo Vermelho distroférrico. Os preparos foram realizados com arado de discos, arado de discos mais uma gradagem de nivelamento, grade pesada, grade pesada mais gradagem de nivelamento e escarificador. A realização da subsolagem depois dos sistemas de preparo periódico requereu 15% menos de potência na barra de tração. A subsolagem depois dos diferentes sistemas de preparo economizou 16,5% de combustível por área. O deslizamento das rodas motrizes e a velocidade média operacional obtiveram melhor desempenho quando se realizou a subsolagem depois do preparo do solo.

Atividades experimentais no ensino de biologia em escolas públicas do estado do Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil: caracterização geral e concepção de professores

Recent research has revealed that the majority of Biology teachers believe the practice of experimental activities as a didactical means would be the solution for the improvement of the Biology teaching-learning process. There are, however, studies which signal the lack of efficiency in such practice lessons as far as building scientific knowledge is concerned. It is also said that despite the enthusiasm on the teachers‟ part, such classes are rarely taught in high school. Several studies point pedagogical difficulties as well as nonexistence of a minimal infrastructure needed in laboratories as cause of low frequency in experimental activities. The poor teacher performance in terms of planning and development of classes; the large number of students per class; lack of financial stimulus for teachers are other reasons to be taken into account among others, in which can also be included difficulties of epistemological nature. That means an unfavorable eye of the teacher towards experimental activities. Our study aimed to clarify if such scenario is generalized in high schools throughout the state of Rio Grande do Norte Brazil. During our investigation a sample of twenty teaching institutions were used. They were divided in two groups: in the first group, five IFRN- Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Rio Grande do Norte schools. Two of those in Natal, and the other three from the country side. The second group is represented by fifteen state schools belonging to the Natal metropolitan area. The objectives of the research were to label schools concerning laboratory facilities; to identify difficulties pointed by teachers when performing experiment classes, and to become familiar with the conceptions of the teachers in regarding biology experiment classes. To perform such task, a questionnaire was used as instrument of data collecting. It contained multiple choice, essay questions and a semi-structured interview with the assistance of a voice recorder. The data analysis and the in loco observation allowed the conclusion that the federal schools do present better facilities for the practice of experimental activities when compared to state schools. Another aspect pointed is the fact that teachers of federal schools have more time available for planning the experiments; they are also better paid and are given access a career development, which leads to better salaries. All those advantages however, do not show a significantly higher frequency regarding the development of experiments when compared to state school teachers. Both teachers of federal and state schools pointed infra-structure problems such as the availability of reactants, equipments and consumption supplies as main obstacle to the practice of experiments in biology classes. Such fact leads us to conclude that maybe there are other problems not covered by the questionnaire such as poor ability to plan and execute experimental activities. As far as conceptions about experimental activities, it was verified in the majority of the interviewees a inductive-empiric point of view of science possibly inherited during their academic formation and such point of view reflected on the way they plan and execute experiments with students

Effects of a ferment soy product on the adipocyte area reduction and dyslipidemia control in hypercholesterolemic adult male rats

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Electricity, hot water and cold water production from biomass. Energetic and economical analysis of the compact system of cogeneration run with woodgas from a small downdraft gasifier

Wood gasification technologies to convert the biomass into fuel gas stand out. on the other hand, producing electrical energy from stationary engine is widely spread, and its application in rural communities where the electrical network doesn't exist is very required. The recovery of exhaust gases (engine) is a possibility that makes the system attractive when compared with the same components used to obtain individual heat such as electric power. This paper presents an energetic alternative to adapt a fixed bed gasifier with a compact cogeneration system in order to cover electrical and thermal demands in a rural area and showing an energy solution for small social communities using renewable fuels. Therefore, an energetic and economical analysis from a cogeneration system producing electric energy, hot and cold water, using wooden gas as fuel from a small-sized gasifier was calculated. The energy balance that includes the energy efficiency (electric generation as well as hot and cold water system; performance coefficient and the heat exchanger, among other items), was calculated. Considering the annual interest rates and the amortization periods, the costs of production of electrical energy, hot and cold water were calculated, taking into account the investment, the operation and the maintenance cost of the equipments. Crown Copyright (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increase of gastric area and weight gain in rats submitted to the ingestion of gasified water

OBJETIVO: em virtude do aumento progressivo da utilização de bebidas gaseificadas e do ganho de peso na população brasileira, e sabendo-se que os refrigerantes têm no gás carbônico um fator em comum, planejou-se um estudo experimental em ratos para investigar os efeitos da água gaseificada na ingestão hídrica e alimentar, ganho de peso, área gástrica, glicemia, hematócrito e hemoglobina. MÉTODOS: Foram constituídos 4 grupos de 12 ratos acompanhados por 36 dias. Ao Grupo-1 foi oferecido 35 g/dia de ração ad libitum e 20 ml de água não gaseificada em 4 períodos diários, ao Grupo-2 foi oferecido 35 g/dia de ração ad libitum e 20 ml de água gaseificada em 4 períodos diários, ao Grupo-3 foi oferecido 10 g/dia de ração ad libitum e 20 ml de água não gaseificada em 4 períodos diários e ao Grupo-4 foi oferecido 10 g/dia de ração ad libitum e 20 ml de água gaseificada em 4 períodos diários. RESULTADOS: Os resultados identificaram que os animais que foram submetidos ao tratamento com água gaseificada (Grupo-2 e Grupo-4), apresentaram um maior volume de ingestão hídrica e aumento significativo da área gástrica (p<0,001), no Grupo-2 a ingestão alimentar assim como o ganho de peso foi significativo (p<0,01), os dados de glicemia, hematócrito e hemoglobina não tiveram alterações significativas entre os grupos estudados. CONCLUSÃO: Nas condições em que foi realizado este experimento, concluímos que a água gaseificada favoreceu a ingestão hídrica e alimentar, o ganho de peso e o aumento da área gástrica.

Social support and infant malnutrition: a case-control study in an urban area of Southeastern Brazil

The relationship between malnutrition and social support was first suggested in the mid-1990s. Despite its plausibility, no empirical studies aimed at obtaining evidence of this association could be located. The goal of the present study was to investigate such evidence. A case-control study was carried out including 101 malnourished children (weight-for-age National Center for Health Statistics/WHO 5th percentile) aged 12-23 months, who were compared with 200 well-nourished children with regard to exposure to a series of factors related to their social support system. Univariate and multiple logistic regressions were carried out, odds ratios being adjusted for per capita family income, mother's schooling, and number of children. The presence of an interaction between income and social support variables was also tested. Absence of a partner living with the mother increased risk of malnutrition (odds ratio 2.4 (95 % CI 1.19, 4.89)), even after adjustment for per capita family income, mother's schooling, and number of children. The lack of economic support during adverse situations accounted for a very high risk of malnutrition (odds ratio 10.1 (95 % CI 3.48, 29.13)) among low-income children, but had no effect on children of higher-income families. Results indicate that receiving economic support is an efficient risk modulator for malnutrition among low-income children. In addition, it was shown that the absence of a partner living with the mother is an important risk factor for malnutrition, with an effect independent from per capita family income, mother's schooling, and number of children.