Towards convection-resolving, global atmospheric simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) v3.1: an extreme scaling experiment, links to sourcecode of model and grides

The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is a novel set of Earth system simulation components and consists of an atmospheric model, an ocean model and a land-ice model. Its distinct features are the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes and C-grid discretisation to address shortcomings of global models on regular grids and the use of limited area models nested in a forcing data set, with respect to parallel scalability, numerical accuracy and physical consistency. This concept allows one to include the feedback of regional land use information on weather and climate at local and global scales in a consistent way, which is impossible to achieve with traditional limited area modelling approaches. Here, we present an in-depth evaluation of MPAS with regards to technical aspects of performing model runs and scalability for three medium-size meshes on four different high-performance computing (HPC) sites with different architectures and compilers. We uncover model limitations and identify new aspects for the model optimisation that are introduced by the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes. We further demonstrate the model performance of MPAS in terms of its capability to reproduce the dynamics of the West African monsoon (WAM) and its associated precipitation in a pilot study. Constrained by available computational resources, we compare 11-month runs for two meshes with observations and a reference simulation from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show that MPAS can reproduce the atmospheric dynamics on global and local scales in this experiment, but identify a precipitation excess for the West African region. Finally, we conduct extreme scaling tests on a global 3?km mesh with more than 65 million horizontal grid cells on up to half a million cores. We discuss necessary modifications of the model code to improve its parallel performance in general and specific to the HPC environment. We confirm good scaling (70?% parallel efficiency or better) of the MPAS model and provide numbers on the computational requirements for experiments with the 3?km mesh. In doing so, we show that global, convection-resolving atmospheric simulations with MPAS are within reach of current and next generations of high-end computing facilities.

Field data, numerical simulations and probability analyses to assess lava flow hazards at Mount Etna

Improving lava flow hazard assessment is one of the most important and challenging fields of volcanology, and has an immediate and practical impact on society. Here, we present a methodology for the quantitative assessment of lava flow hazards based on a combination of field data, numerical simulations and probability analyses. With the extensive data available on historic eruptions of Mt. Etna, going back over 2000 years, it has been possible to construct two hazard maps, one for flank and the other for summit eruptions, allowing a quantitative analysis of the most likely future courses of lava flows. The effective use of hazard maps of Etna may help in minimizing the damage from volcanic eruptions through correct land use in densely urbanized area with a population of almost one million people. Although this study was conducted on Mt. Etna, the approach used is designed to be applicable to other volcanic areas.

Cenozoic global ice volume and temperature simulations over the past 40 million years

Variations in global ice volume and temperature over the Cenozoic era have been investigated with a set of one-dimensional (1-D) ice-sheet models. Simulations include three ice sheets representing glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere, i.e. in Eurasia, North America and Greenland, and two separate ice sheets for Antarctic glaciation. The continental mean Northern Hemisphere surface-air temperature has been derived through an inverse procedure from observed benthic d18O records. These data have yielded a mutually consistent and continuous record of temperature, global ice volume and benthic d18O over the past 35 Ma. The simple 1-D model shows good agreement with a comprehensive 3-D ice-sheet model for the past 3 Ma. On average, differences are only 1.0°C for temperature and 6.2 m for sea level. Most notably, over the 35 Ma period, the reconstructed ice volume-temperature sensitivity shows a transition from a climate controlled by Southern Hemisphere ice sheets to one controlled by Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Although the transient behaviour is important, equilibrium experiments show that the relationship between temperature and sea level is linear and symmetric, providing limited evidence for hysteresis. Furthermore, the results show a good comparison with other simulations of Antarctic ice volume and observed sea level.

Next generation e-learning platform: virtual laboratory simulations

Bioscience subjects require a significant amount of training in laboratory techniques to produce highly skilled science graduates. Many techniques which are currently used in diagnostic, research and industrial laboratories require expensive equipment for single users; examples of which include next generation sequencing, quantitative PCR, mass spectrometry and other analytical techniques. The cost of the machines, reagents and limited access frequently preclude undergraduate students from using such cutting edge techniques. In addition to cost and availability, the time taken for analytical runs on equipment such as High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) does not necessarily fit with the limitations of timetabling. Understanding the theory underlying these techniques without the accompanying practical classes can be unexciting for students. One alternative from wet laboratory provision is to use virtual simulations of such practical which enable students to see the machines and interact with them to generate data. The Faculty of Science and Technology at the University of Westminster has provided all second and third year undergraduate students with iPads so that these students all have access to a mobile device to assist with learning. We have purchased licences from Labster to access a range of virtual laboratory simulations. These virtual laboratories are fully equipped and require student responses to multiple answer questions in order to progress through the experiment. In a pilot study to look at the feasibility of the Labster virtual laboratory simulations with the iPad devices; second year Biological Science students (n=36) worked through the Labster HPLC simulation on iPads. The virtual HPLC simulation enabled students to optimise the conditions for the separation of drugs. Answers to Multiple choice questions were necessary to progress through the simulation, these focussed on the underlying principles of the HPLC technique. Following the virtual laboratory simulation students went to a real HPLC in the analytical suite in order to separate of asprin, caffeine and paracetamol. In a survey 100% of students (n=36) in this cohort agreed that the Labster virtual simulation had helped them to understand HPLC. In free text responses one student commented that "The terminology is very clear and I enjoyed using Labster very much”. One member of staff commented that “there was a very good knowledge interaction with the virtual practical”.

Westminster Serious Games Platform (wmin-SGP) a tool for real-time authoring of roleplay simulations for learning

The use of serious games in education and their pedagogical benefit is being widely recognized. However, effective integration of serious games in education depends on addressing two big challenges: the successful incorporation of motivation and engagement that can lead to learning; and the highly specialised skills associated with customised development to meet the required pedagogical objectives. This paper presents the Westminster Serious Games Platform (wmin-SGP) an authoring tool that allows educators/domain experts without games design and development technical skills to create bespoke roleplay simulations in three dimensional scenes featuring fully embodied virtual humans capable of verbal and non-verbal interaction with users fit for specific educational objectives. The paper presents the wmin-SGP system architecture and it evaluates its effectiveness in fulfilling its purpose via the implementation of two roleplay simulations, one for Politics and one for Law. In addition, it presents the results of two types of evaluation that address how successfully the wmin-SGP combines usability principles and game core drives based on the Octalysis gamification framework that lead to motivating games experiences. The evaluation results shows that the wmin-SGP: provides an intuitive environment and tools that support users without advanced technical skills to create in real-time bespoke roleplay simulations in advanced graphical interfaces; satisfies most of the usability principles; and provides balanced simulations based on the Octalysis framework core drives. The paper concludes with a discussion of future extension of this real time authoring tool and directions for further development of the Octalysis framework to address learning.

Molecular docking and geographical information systems as tools to assess the potential impact of veterinary medicines on non-target organisms and the environment

Veterinary medicines (VMs) from agricultural industry can enter the environment in a number of ways. This includes direct exposure through aquaculture, accidental spillage and disposal, and indirect entry by leaching from manure or runoff after treatment. Many compounds used in animal treatments have ecotoxic properties that may have chronic or sometimes lethal effects when they come into contact with non-target organisms. VMs enter the environment in mixtures, potentially having additive effects. Traditional ecotoxicology tests are used to determine the lethal and sometimes reproductive effects on freshwater and terrestrial organisms. However, organisms used in ecotoxicology tests can be unrepresentative of the populations that are likely to be exposed to the compound in the environment. Most often the tests are on single compound toxicity but mixture effects may be significant and should be included in ecotoxicology testing. This work investigates the use, measured environmental concentrations (MECs) and potential impact of sea lice treatments on salmon farms in Scotland. Alternative methods for ecotoxicology testing including mixture toxicity, and the use of in silico techniques to predict the chronic impact of VMs on different species of aquatic organisms were also investigated. The Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) provided information on the use of five sea lice treatments from 2008-2011 on Scottish salmon farms. This information was combined with the recently available data on sediment MECs for the years 2009-2012 provided by SEPA using ArcGIS 10.1. In depth analysis of this data showed that from a total of 55 sites, 30 sites had a MEC higher than the maximum allowable concentration (MAC) as set out by SEPA for emamectin benzoate and 7 sites had a higher MEC than MAC for teflubenzuron. A number of sites that were up to 16 km away from the nearest salmon farm reported as using either emamectin benzoate or teflubenzuron measured positive for the two treatments. There was no relationship between current direction and the distribution of the sea lice treatments, nor was there any evidence for alternative sources of the compounds e.g. land treatments. The sites that had MECs higher than the MAC could pose a risk to non-target organisms and disrupt the species dynamics of the area. There was evidence that some marine protected sites might be at risk of exposure to these compounds. To complement this work, effects on acute mixture toxicity of the 5 sea lice treatments, plus one major metabolite 3-phenoxybenzoic acid (3PBA), were measured using an assay using the bioluminescent bacteria Aliivibrio fischeri. When exposed to the 5 sea lice treatments and 3PBA A. fischeri showed a response to 3PBA, emamectin benzoate and azamethiphos as well as combinations of the three. In order to establish any additive effect of the sea lice treatments, the efficacy of two mixture prediction equations, concentration addition (CA) and independent action ii(IA) were tested using the results from single compound dose response curves. In this instance IA was the more effective prediction method with a linear regression confidence interval of 82.6% compared with 22.6% of CA. In silico molecular docking was carried out to predict the chronic effects of 15 VMs (including the five used as sea lice control). Molecular docking has been proposed as an alternative screening method for the chronic effects of large animal treatments on non-target organisms. Oestrogen receptor alpha (ERα) of 7 non-target bony fish and the African clawed frog Xenopus laevis were modelled using SwissModel. These models were then ‘docked’ to oestradiol, the synthetic oestrogen ethinylestradiol, two known xenoestrogens dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and bisphenol A (BPA), the antioestrogen breast cancer treatment tamoxifen and 15 VMs using Auto Dock 4. Based on the results of this work, four VMs were identified as being possible xenoestrogens or anti-oestrogens; these were cypermethrin, deltamethrin, fenbendazole and teflubenzuron. Further investigation, using in vitro assays, into these four VMs has been suggested as future work. A modified recombinant yeast oestrogen screen (YES) was attempted using the cDNA of the ERα of the zebrafish Danio rerio and the rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss. Due to time and difficulties in cloning protocols this work was unable to be completed. Use of such in vitro assays would allow for further investigation of the highlighted VMs into their oestrogenic potential. In conclusion, VMs used as sea lice treatments, such as teflubenzuron and emamectin benzoate may be more persistent and have a wider range in the environment than previously thought. Mixtures of sea lice treatments have been found to persist together in the environment, and effects of these mixtures on the bacteria A. fischeri can be predicted using the IA equation. Finally, molecular docking may be a suitable tool to predict chronic endocrine disrupting effects and identify varying degrees of impact on the ERα of nine species of aquatic organisms.

An implementation architecture for scenario-based simulations

The past years have witnessed an increased use of applied games for developing and evaluating communication skills. These skills benefit from in-terpersonal interactions. Providing feedback to students practicing communica-tion skills is difficult in a traditional class setting with one teacher and many students. This logistic challenge may be partly overcome by providing training using a simulation in which a student practices with communication scenarios. A scenario is a description of a series of interactions, where at each step the player is faced with a choice. We have developed a scenario editor that enables teachers to develop scenarios for practicing communication skills. A teacher can develop a scenario without knowledge of the implementation. This paper presents the implementation architecture for such a scenario-based simulation.

Progenitor-Dependent Explosion Dynamics in Self-Consistent, Axisymmetric Simulations of Neutrino-Driven Core-Collapse Supernovae

We present self-consistent, axisymmetric core-collapse supernova simulations performed with the Prometheus-Vertex code for 18 pre-supernova models in the range of 11–28 M ⊙, including progenitors recently investigated by other groups. All models develop explosions, but depending on the progenitor structure, they can be divided into two classes. With a steep density decline at the Si/Si–O interface, the arrival of this interface at the shock front leads to a sudden drop of the mass-accretion rate, triggering a rapid approach to explosion. With a more gradually decreasing accretion rate, it takes longer for the neutrino heating to overcome the accretion ram pressure and explosions set in later. Early explosions are facilitated by high mass-accretion rates after bounce and correspondingly high neutrino luminosities combined with a pronounced drop of the accretion rate and ram pressure at the Si/Si–O interface. Because of rapidly shrinking neutron star radii and receding shock fronts after the passage through their maxima, our models exhibit short advection timescales, which favor the efficient growth of the standing accretion-shock instability. The latter plays a supportive role at least for the initiation of the re-expansion of the stalled shock before runaway. Taking into account the effects of turbulent pressure in the gain layer, we derive a generalized condition for the critical neutrino luminosity that captures the explosion behavior of all models very well. We validate the robustness of our findings by testing the influence of stochasticity, numerical resolution, and approximations in some aspects of the microphysics.

Finite Element Simulations of stretch-blow moulding with experimental validation over a broad process window

Injection stretch blow moulding is a well-established method of forming thin-walled containers and has been extensively researched for numerous years. This paper is concerned with validating the finite element analysis of the free-stretch-blow process in an effort to progress the development of injection stretch blow moulding of poly(ethylene terephthalate). Extensive data was obtained experimentally over a wide process window accounting for material temperature and air flow rate, while capturing cavity pressure, stretch-rod reaction force and preform surface strain. This data was then used to assess the accuracy of the correlating FE simulation constructed using ABAQUS/Explicit solver and an appropriate viscoelastic material subroutine. Results reveal that the simulation is able to give good quantitative correlation for conditions where the deformation was predominantly equal biaxial whilst qualitative correlation was achievable when the mode of deformation was predominantly sequential biaxial. Overall the simulation was able to pick up the general trends of how the pressure, reaction force, strain rate and strain vary with the variation in preform temperature and air flow rate. The knowledge gained from these analyses provides insight into the mechanisms of bottle formation, subsequently improving the blow moulding simulation and allowing for reduction in future development costs.

Optimising power take-off of an oscillating wave surge converter using high fidelity numerical simulations

Oscillating wave surge converters are a promising technology to harvest ocean wave energy in the near shore region. Although research has been going on for many years, the characteristics of the wave action on the structure and especially the phase relation between the driving force and wave quantities like velocity or surface elevation have not been investigated in detail. The main reason for this is the lack of suitable methods. Experimental investigations using tank tests do not give direct access to overall hydrodynamic loads, only damping torque of a power take off system can be measured directly. Non-linear computational fluid dynamics methods have only recently been applied in the research of this type of devices. This paper presents a new metric named wave torque, which is the total hydrodynamic torque minus the still water pitch stiffness at any given angle of rotation. Changes in characteristics of that metric over a wave cycle and for different power take off settings are investigated using computational fluid dynamics methods. Firstly, it is shown that linearised methods cannot predict optimum damping in typical operating states of OWSCs. We then present phase relationships between main kinetic parameters for different damping levels. Although the flap seems to operate close to resonance, as predicted by linear theory, no obvious condition defining optimum damping is found.

Efficient simulations with electronic open boundaries

We present a reformulation of the hairy-probe method for introducing electronic open boundaries that is appropriate for steady-state calculations involving nonorthogonal atomic basis sets. As a check on the correctness of the method we investigate a perfect atomic wire of Cu atoms and a perfect nonorthogonal chain of H atoms. For both atom chains we find that the conductance has a value of exactly one quantum unit and that this is rather insensitive to the strength of coupling of the probes to the system, provided values of the coupling are of the same order as the mean interlevel spacing of the system without probes. For the Cu atom chain we find in addition that away from the regions with probes attached, the potential in the wire is uniform, while within them it follows a predicted exponential variation with position. We then apply the method to an initial investigation of the suitability of graphene as a contact material for molecular electronics. We perform calculations on a carbon nanoribbon to determine the correct coupling strength of the probes to the graphene and obtain a conductance of about two quantum units corresponding to two bands crossing the Fermi surface. We then compute the current through a benzene molecule attached to two graphene contacts and find only a very weak current because of the disruption of the π conjugation by the covalent bond between the benzene and the graphene. In all cases we find that very strong or weak probe couplings suppress the current.

Docking of HIV-1 Vpr to the nuclear envelope is mediated by the interaction with the nucleoporin hCG1

The HIV-1 genome contains several genes coding for auxiliary proteins, including the small Vpr protein. Vpr affects the integrity of the nuclear envelope and participates in the nuclear translocation of the preintegration complex containing the viral DNA. Here, we show by photobleaching experiments performed on living cells expressing a Vpr-green fluorescent protein fusion that the protein shuttles between the nucleus and the cytoplasm, but a significant fraction is concentrated at the nuclear envelope, supporting the hypothesis that Vpr interacts with components of the nuclear pore complex. An interaction between HIV-1 Vpr and the human nucleoporin CG1 (hCG1) was revealed in the yeast two-hybrid system, and then confirmed both in vitro and in transfected cells. This interaction does not involve the FG repeat domain of hCG1 but rather the N-terminal region of the protein. Using a nuclear import assay based on digitonin-permeabilized cells, we demonstrate that hCG1 participates in the docking of Vpr at the nuclear envelope. This association of Vpr with a component of the nuclear pore complex may contribute to the disruption of the nuclear envelope and to the nuclear import of the viral DNA.

Advanced Business Simulations-Incorporating business and process execution data

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and their predictions are widely used by the enterprises for informed decision making. Nevertheless , a very important factor, which is generally overlooked, is that the top level strategic KPIs are actually driven by the operational level business processes. These two domains are, however, mostly segregated and analysed in silos with different Business Intelligence solutions. In this paper, we are proposing an approach for advanced Business Simulations, which converges the two domains by utilising process execution & business data, and concepts from Business Dynamics (BD) and Business Ontologies, to promote better system understanding and detailed KPI predictions. Our approach incorporates the automated creation of Causal Loop Diagrams, thus empowering the analyst to critically examine the complex dependencies hidden in the massive amounts of available enterprise data. We have further evaluated our proposed approach in the context of a retail use-case that involved verification of the automatically generated causal models by a domain expert.

Three-dimensional simulations of gravitationally confined detonations compared to observations of SN 1991T

The gravitationally confined detonation (GCD) model has been proposed as a possible explosion mechanism for Type Ia supernovae in the single-degenerate evolution channel. It starts with ignition of a deflagration in a single off-centre bubble in a near-Chandrasekhar-mass white dwarf. Driven by buoyancy, the deflagration flame rises in a narrow cone towards the surface. For the most part, the main component of the flow of the expanding ashes remains radial, but upon reaching the outer, low-pressure layers of the white dwarf, an additional lateral component develops. This causes the deflagration ashes to converge again at the opposite side, where the compression heats fuel and a detonation may be launched. We first performed five three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of the deflagration phase in 1.4 M⊙ carbon/oxygen white dwarfs at intermediate-resolution (2563computational zones). We confirm that the closer the initial deflagration is ignited to the centre, the slower the buoyant rise and the longer the deflagration ashes takes to break out and close in on the opposite pole to collide. To test the GCD explosion model, we then performed a high-resolution (5123 computational zones) simulation for a model with an ignition spot offset near the upper limit of what is still justifiable, 200 km. This high-resolution simulation met our deliberately optimistic detonation criteria, and we initiated a detonation. The detonation burned through the white dwarf and led to its complete disruption. For this model, we determined detailed nucleosynthetic yields by post-processing 106 tracer particles with a 384 nuclide reaction network, and we present multi-band light curves and time-dependent optical spectra. We find that our synthetic observables show a prominent viewing-angle sensitivity in ultraviolet and blue wavelength bands, which contradicts observed SNe Ia. The strong dependence on the viewing angle is caused by the asymmetric distribution of the deflagration ashes in the outer ejecta layers. Finally, we compared our model to SN 1991T. The overall flux level of the model is slightly too low, and the model predicts pre-maximum light spectral features due to Ca, S, and Si that are too strong. Furthermore, the model chemical abundance stratification qualitatively disagrees with recent abundance tomography results in two key areas: our model lacks low-velocity stable Fe and instead has copious amounts of high-velocity 56Ni and stable Fe. We therefore do not find good agreement of the model with SN 1991T.