Elicitation of subjective crop yield PDF

En este trabajo se investiga la coherencia y confiabilidad de estimaciones de funciones de densidad de probabilidad (FDP) subjetivas de rendimientos de cultivos realizadas por un amplio grupo de agricultores. Se utilizaron tres técnicas de elicitación diferentes: el método de estimación de FDP en dos pasos, la distribución Triangular y la distribución Beta. Los sujetos entrevistados ofrecieron estimaciones para los valores puntuales de rendimientos de cultivos (medio, máximo posible, más frecuente y mínimo posible) y para las FDP basadas en la estimación de intervalos. Para evaluar la persistencia, se utilizaron los conceptos de persistencia temporal y persistencia metodológica. Los resultados son interesantes para juzgar la adecuación de las técnicas de estimación de probabilidades subjetivas a los sistemas de ayuda en la toma de decisiones en agricultura.

Short communication. Persistence of point crop yield subjective estimates

En este trabajo se investiga la persistencia de las estimaciones puntuales subjetivas de rendimientos en cultivos anua- les realizadas por un amplio grupo de agricultores. La persistencia en el tiempo es una condición necesaria para la co- herencia y la confiabilidad de las estimaciones subjetivas de variables aleatorias. Los sujetos entrevistados estimaron valores puntuales de rendimientos de cultivos anuales (rendimientos medio, mayor, mínimo y más frecuente). Se han encontrado diferencias relativas poco importantes en todas las variables, excepto en los rendimientos mínimos, donde existe una alta dispersión. Los resultados son interesantes para estimar la adecuación de las técnicas de estimación de probabilidades subjetivas para ser utilizadas en los sistemas de ayuda en la toma de decisiones en agricultura.

Differences in phasic development rate amongst wheat cultivars independent of responses to photoperiod and vernalization. A viewpoint of the intrinsic earliness hypothesis

Differences amongst wheat cultivars in the rate of reproductive development are largely dependent on differences in their sensitivity to photoperiod and vernalization. However, when these responses are accounted for, by growing vernalized seedlings under long photoperiods, cultivars can still differ markedly in time to ear emergence. Control of rate of development by this ‘third factor’ has been poorly understood and is variously referred to as intrinsic earliness, earliness in the narrow sense, basic vegetative period, earliness per se, and basic development rate. Certain assumptions are made in the concept of intrinsic earliness. They are that differences in intrinsic earliness (i) are independent of the responses of the cultivars to photoperiod and vernalization, (ii) apply only to the length of the vegetative period up to floral initiation (as suggested by several authors), (iii) are maintained under different temperatures, measured either in days or degree days. As a consequence of this, the ranking of cultivars (from intrinsically early to intrinsically late) must be maintained at different temperatures. This paper, by the re-analysis of published data, examines the extent to which these assumptions can be supported. Although it is shown that intrinsic earliness operates independently of photoperiod and vernalization responses, the other assumptions were not supported. The differences amongst genotypes in time to ear emergence, grown under above-optimum vernalization and photoperiod (that is when the response to these factors is saturated), were not exclusively due to parallel differences in the length of the vegetative phase, and the length of the reproductive phase was independent of that of the vegetative phase. Thus, it would be possible to change the relative allocation of time to vegetative and reproductive periods with no change in the full period to ear emergence. The differences in intrinsic earliness between cultivars were modified by the temperature regime under which they were grown, i.e. the difference between cultivars (both considering the full phase to ear emergence or some sub-phases) was not a constant amount of time or thermal time at different temperatures. In addition, in some instances genotypes changed their ranking for ‘intrinsic earliness’ depending on the temperature regime. This was interpreted to mean that while all genotypes are sensitive to temperature they differ amongst themselves in the extent of that sensitivity. Therefore, ‘intrinsic earliness’ should not be considered as a static genotypic characteristic, but the result of the interaction between the genotype and temperature. Intrinsic earliness is therefore likely to be related to temperature sensitivity. Some implications of these conclusions for plant breeding and crop simulation modelling are discussed.

Content value chains modelling using a copyright ontology

Existing digital rights management (DRM) systems, initiatives like Creative Commons or research works as some digital rights ontologies provide limited support for content value chains modelling and management. This is becoming a critical issue as content markets start to profit from the possibilities of digital networks and the World Wide Web. The objective is to support the whole copyrighted content value chain across enterprise or business niches boundaries. Our proposal provides a framework that accommodates copyright law and a rich creation model in order to cope with all the creation life cycle stages. The dynamic aspects of value chains are modelled using a hybrid approach that combines ontology-based and rule-based mechanisms. The ontology implementation is based on Web Ontology Language and Description Logic (OWL-DL) reasoners, are directly used for license checking. On the other hand, for more complex aspects of the dynamics of content value chains, rule languages are the choice.

Background, current status and future prospects of transgenic crop plant development

Les plantes transgèniques són una part integral de l’agricultura contemporània. Durant l’any 2006 més de noranta milions d’hectàrees de plantes transgèniques van ser cultivades en vint-i-un països. Des de la comercialització de la primera planta transgènica el 1996 els nivells d’adopció d’aquests cultius han augmentat anualment amb percentatges de dos dígits. El desenvolupament i la comercialització de les plantes transgèniques van lligats estretament al comerç mundial, a la globalització, a la disponibilitat de suficient menjar, a la protecció del medi ambient i del consumidor i a la propietat intel·lectual. En aquest article exposem els avenços més recents i les tendències actuals en el desenvolupament dels cultius transgènics i de la seva utilització. També ens fem ressò d’alguns assumptes no científics que s’han de solucionar abans que aquests cultius arribin al màxim del seu potencial, proporcionant una agricultura més sostenible i ecològica. Finalment, ressaltarem la importància de com les plantes transgèniques poden contribuir en la disponibilitat de menjar i en la millora de la pobresa en els països en vies de desenvolupament.

Modelling leaf development in Oxalis latifolia

This study was carried to develop functions that could explain the growth of Oxalis latifolia, in both early stages and throughout the season, contributing to the improvement of its cultural control. Bulbs of the Cornwall form of O. latifolia were buried at 1 and 8 cm in March 1999 and 2000. Samples were destructive at fixed times, and at each time the corresponding BBCH scale codes as well as the absolute number of growing and adult leaves were noted. Using the absolute number of adult leaves (transformed to percentages), a Gaussian curve of three parameters that explains the growth during the season (R2=0.9355) was developed. The BBCH scale permitted the fit of two regression lines that were accurately adjusted for each burial depth (R2=0.9969 and R2=0.9930 respectively for 1 and 8 cm). The best moment for an early defoliation in Northern Spain could be calculated with these regression lines, and was found to be the second week of May. In addition, it was observed that a burial depth of 8 cm does not affect the growing pattern of the weed, but it affects the number of leaves they produce, which decreases to less than a half of those produced at 1 cm.

Modelling bird species richness with neural networks for forest landscape management in NE Spain

Para preservar la biodiversidad de los ecosistemas forestales de la Europa mediterránea en escenarios actuales y futuros de cambio global mediante una gestión forestal sostenible es necesario determinar cómo influye el medio ambiente y las propias características de los bosques sobre la biodiversidad que éstos albergan. Con este propósito, se analizó la influencia de diferentes factores ambientales y de estructura y composición del bosque sobre la riqueza de aves forestales a escala 1 × 1 km en Cataluña (NE de España). Se construyeron modelos univariantes y multivariantes de redes neuronales para respectivamente explorar la respuesta individual a las variables y obtener un modelo parsimonioso (ecológicamente interpretable) y preciso. La superficie de bosque (con una fracción de cabida cubierta superior a 5%), la fracción de cabida cubierta media, la temperatura anual y la precipitación estival medias fueron los mejores predictores de la riqueza de aves forestales. La red neuronal multivariante obtenida tuvo una buena capacidad de generalización salvo en las localidades con una mayor riqueza. Además, los bosques con diferentes grados de apertura del dosel arbóreo, más maduros y más diversos en cuanto a su composición de especies arbóreas se asociaron de forma positiva con una mayor riqueza de aves forestales. Finalmente, se proporcionan directrices de gestión para la planificación forestal que permitan promover la diversidad ornítica en esta región de la Europa mediterránea.

Modelling of iron-filled magneto-active polymers with a dispersed chain-like microstructure

Magneto-active polymers are a class of smart materials commonly manufactured by mixing micron-sized iron particles in a rubber-like matrix. When cured in the presence of an externally applied magnetic field, the iron particles arrange themselves into chain-like structures that lend an overall anisotropy to the material. It has been observed through electron micrographs and X-ray tomographs that these chains are not always perfect in structure, and may have dispersion due to the conditions present during manufacturing or some undesirable material properties. We model the response of these materials to coupled magneto-mechanical loading in this paper using a probability based structure tensor that accounts for this imperfect anisotropy. The response of the matrix material is decoupled from the chain phase, though still being connected through kinematic constraints. The latter is based on the definition of a 'chain deformation gradient' and a 'chain magnetic field'. We conclude with numerical examples that demonstrate the effect of chain dispersion on the response of the material to magnetoelastic loading.

Intravoxel incoherent motion diffusion-weighted imaging in the liver: comparison of mono-, bi- and tri-exponential modelling at 3.0-T.

PURPOSE: To determine whether a mono-, bi- or tri-exponential model best fits the intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) signal of normal livers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The pilot and validation studies were conducted in 38 and 36 patients with normal livers, respectively. The DWI sequence was performed using single-shot echoplanar imaging with 11 (pilot study) and 16 (validation study) b values. In each study, data from all patients were used to model the IVIM signal of normal liver. Diffusion coefficients (Di ± standard deviations) and their fractions (fi ± standard deviations) were determined from each model. The models were compared using the extra sum-of-squares test and information criteria. RESULTS: The tri-exponential model provided a better fit than both the bi- and mono-exponential models. The tri-exponential IVIM model determined three diffusion compartments: a slow (D1 = 1.35 ± 0.03 × 10(-3) mm(2)/s; f1 = 72.7 ± 0.9 %), a fast (D2 = 26.50 ± 2.49 × 10(-3) mm(2)/s; f2 = 13.7 ± 0.6 %) and a very fast (D3 = 404.00 ± 43.7 × 10(-3) mm(2)/s; f3 = 13.5 ± 0.8 %) diffusion compartment [results from the validation study]. The very fast compartment contributed to the IVIM signal only for b values ≤15 s/mm(2) CONCLUSION: The tri-exponential model provided the best fit for IVIM signal decay in the liver over the 0-800 s/mm(2) range. In IVIM analysis of normal liver, a third very fast (pseudo)diffusion component might be relevant. KEY POINTS: ? For normal liver, tri-exponential IVIM model might be superior to bi-exponential ? A very fast compartment (D = 404.00 ± 43.7 × 10 (-3)  mm (2) /s; f = 13.5 ± 0.8 %) is determined from the tri-exponential model ? The compartment contributes to the IVIM signal only for b ≤ 15 s/mm (2.)

Statistical modelling of CSP solving algorithms performance

The goal of this work is to try to create a statistical model, based only on easily computable parameters from the CSP problem to predict runtime behaviour of the solving algorithms, and let us choose the best algorithm to solve the problem. Although it seems that the obvious choice should be MAC, experimental results obtained so far show, that with big numbers of variables, other algorithms perfom much better, specially for hard problems in the transition phase.

Discriminating crop, weeds and soil surface with a terrestrial LIDAR sensor

In this study, the evaluation of the accuracy and performance of a light detection and ranging (LIDAR) sensor for vegetation using distance and reflection measurements aiming to detect and discriminate maize plants and weeds from soil surface was done. The study continues a previous work carried out in a maize field in Spain with a LIDAR sensor using exclusively one index, the height profile. The current system uses a combination of the two mentioned indexes. The experiment was carried out in a maize field at growth stage 12–14, at 16 different locations selected to represent the widest possible density of three weeds: Echinochloa crus-galli (L.) P.Beauv., Lamium purpureum L., Galium aparine L.and Veronica persica Poir.. A terrestrial LIDAR sensor was mounted on a tripod pointing to the inter-row area, with its horizontal axis and the field of view pointing vertically downwards to the ground, scanning a vertical plane with the potential presence of vegetation. Immediately after the LIDAR data acquisition (distances and reflection measurements), actual heights of plants were estimated using an appropriate methodology. For that purpose, digital images were taken of each sampled area. Data showed a high correlation between LIDAR measured height and actual plant heights (R2 = 0.75). Binary logistic regression between weed presence/absence and the sensor readings (LIDAR height and reflection values) was used to validate the accuracy of the sensor. This permitted the discrimination of vegetation from the ground with an accuracy of up to 95%. In addition, a Canonical Discrimination Analysis (CDA) was able to discriminate mostly between soil and vegetation and, to a far lesser extent, between crop and weeds. The studied methodology arises as a good system for weed detection, which in combination with other principles, such as vision-based technologies, could improve the efficiency and accuracy of herbicide spraying.

Characterising strengths, weakness, opportunities and threats in producing naked oat as a novel crop for northern growing conditions

Selostus: Paljasjyväinen kaura uutena viljelykasvina Suomen kasvuoloissa

On diversity effects of alternative agricultural policy reforms in Finland : an agricultural sector modelling approach

Selostus: Maatalouspolitiikkauudistusten vaikutuksista pellonkäytön diversiteettiin

Fire management, climate change and their interacting effects on birds in complex Mediterranean landscapes: dynamic distribution modelling of an early-successional species - the near-threatened Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata)

The current challenge in a context of major environmental changes is to anticipate the responses of species to future landscape and climate scenarios. In the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one the most powerful driving forces of fire dynamics, with fire frequency and impact having markedly increased in recent years. Species distribution modelling plays a fundamental role in this challenge, but better integration of available ecological knowledge is needed to adequately guide conservation efforts. Here, we quantified changes in habitat suitability of an early-succession bird in Catalonia, the Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata) ― globally evaluated as Near Threatened in the IUCN Red List. We assessed potential changes in species distributions between 2000 and 2050 under different fire management and climate change scenarios and described landscape dynamics using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model that simulates fire impacts in the landscape and post-fire regeneration (MEDFIRE model). Dartford Warbler occurrence data were acquired at two different spatial scales from: 1) the Atlas of European Breeding Birds (EBCC) and 2) Catalan Breeding Bird Atlas (CBBA). Habitat suitability was modelled using five widely-used modelling techniques in an ensemble forecasting framework. Our results indicated considerable habitat suitability losses (ranging between 47% and 57% in baseline scenarios), which were modulated to a large extent by fire regime changes derived from fire management policies and climate changes. Such result highlighted the need for taking the spatial interaction between climate changes, fire-mediated landscape dynamics and fire management policies into account for coherently anticipating habitat suitability changes of early succession bird species. We conclude that fire management programs need to be integrated into conservation plans to effectively preserve sparsely forested and early succession habitats and their associated species in the face of global environmental change.

Modelling additional costs caused by a new product feature

Työn tavoitteena oli mallintaa uuden tuoteominaisuuden aiheuttamat lisäkustannukset ja suunnitella päätöksenteon työkalu Timberjack Oy:n kuormatraktorivalmistuksen johtoryhmälle. Tarkoituksena oli luoda karkean tason malli, joka sopisi eri tyyppisten tuoteominaisuuksien kustannuksien selvittämiseen. Uuden tuoteominaisuuden vaikutusta yrityksen eri toimintoihin selvitettiin haastatteluin. Haastattelukierroksen tukena käytettiin kysymyslomaketta. Haastattelujen tavoitteena oli selvittää prosessit, toiminnot ja resurssit, jotka ovat välttämättömiä uuden tuoteominaisuuden tuotantoon saattamisessa ja tuotannossa. Malli suunniteltiin haastattelujen ja tietojärjestelmästä hankitun tiedon pohjalta. Mallin rungon muodostivat ne prosessit ja toiminnot, joihin uudella tuoteominaisuudella on vaikutusta. Huomioon otettiin sellaiset resurssit, joita uusi tuoteominaisuus kuluttaa joko välittömästi, tai välillisesti. Tarkasteluun sisällytettiin ainoastaan lisäkustannukset. Uuden tuoteominaisuuden toteuttamisesta riippumattomat, joka tapauksessa toteutuvat yleiskustannukset jätettiin huomioimatta. Malli on yleistys uuden tuoteominaisuuden aiheuttamista lisäkustannuksista, koska tarkoituksena on, että se sopii eri tyyppisten tuoteominaisuuksien aiheuttamien kustannusten selvittämiseen. Lisäksi malli soveltuu muiden pienehköjen tuotemuutosten kustannusten kartoittamiseen.