Analysis of space-time environmental data in complex regions

This thesis develops a comprehensive and a flexible statistical framework for the analysis and detection of space, time and space-time clusters of environmental point data. The developed clustering methods were applied in both simulated datasets and real-world environmental phenomena; however, only the cases of forest fires in Canton of Ticino (Switzerland) and in Portugal are expounded in this document. Normally, environmental phenomena can be modelled as stochastic point processes where each event, e.g. the forest fire ignition point, is characterised by its spatial location and occurrence in time. Additionally, information such as burned area, ignition causes, landuse, topographic, climatic and meteorological features, etc., can also be used to characterise the studied phenomenon. Thereby, the space-time pattern characterisa- tion represents a powerful tool to understand the distribution and behaviour of the events and their correlation with underlying processes, for instance, socio-economic, environmental and meteorological factors. Consequently, we propose a methodology based on the adaptation and application of statistical and fractal point process measures for both global (e.g. the Morisita Index, the Box-counting fractal method, the multifractal formalism and the Ripley's K-function) and local (e.g. Scan Statistics) analysis. Many measures describing the space-time distribution of environmental phenomena have been proposed in a wide variety of disciplines; nevertheless, most of these measures are of global character and do not consider complex spatial constraints, high variability and multivariate nature of the events. Therefore, we proposed an statistical framework that takes into account the complexities of the geographical space, where phenomena take place, by introducing the Validity Domain concept and carrying out clustering analyses in data with different constrained geographical spaces, hence, assessing the relative degree of clustering of the real distribution. Moreover, exclusively to the forest fire case, this research proposes two new methodologies to defining and mapping both the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) described as the interaction zone between burnable vegetation and anthropogenic infrastructures, and the prediction of fire ignition susceptibility. In this regard, the main objective of this Thesis was to carry out a basic statistical/- geospatial research with a strong application part to analyse and to describe complex phenomena as well as to overcome unsolved methodological problems in the characterisation of space-time patterns, in particular, the forest fire occurrences. Thus, this Thesis provides a response to the increasing demand for both environmental monitoring and management tools for the assessment of natural and anthropogenic hazards and risks, sustainable development, retrospective success analysis, etc. The major contributions of this work were presented at national and international conferences and published in 5 scientific journals. National and international collaborations were also established and successfully accomplished. -- Cette thèse développe une méthodologie statistique complète et flexible pour l'analyse et la détection des structures spatiales, temporelles et spatio-temporelles de données environnementales représentées comme de semis de points. Les méthodes ici développées ont été appliquées aux jeux de données simulées autant qu'A des phénomènes environnementaux réels; nonobstant, seulement le cas des feux forestiers dans le Canton du Tessin (la Suisse) et celui de Portugal sont expliqués dans ce document. Normalement, les phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être modélisés comme des processus ponctuels stochastiques ou chaque événement, par ex. les point d'ignition des feux forestiers, est déterminé par son emplacement spatial et son occurrence dans le temps. De plus, des informations tels que la surface bru^lée, les causes d'ignition, l'utilisation du sol, les caractéristiques topographiques, climatiques et météorologiques, etc., peuvent aussi être utilisées pour caractériser le phénomène étudié. Par conséquent, la définition de la structure spatio-temporelle représente un outil puissant pour compren- dre la distribution du phénomène et sa corrélation avec des processus sous-jacents tels que les facteurs socio-économiques, environnementaux et météorologiques. De ce fait, nous proposons une méthodologie basée sur l'adaptation et l'application de mesures statistiques et fractales des processus ponctuels d'analyse global (par ex. l'indice de Morisita, la dimension fractale par comptage de boîtes, le formalisme multifractal et la fonction K de Ripley) et local (par ex. la statistique de scan). Des nombreuses mesures décrivant les structures spatio-temporelles de phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être trouvées dans la littérature. Néanmoins, la plupart de ces mesures sont de caractère global et ne considèrent pas de contraintes spatiales com- plexes, ainsi que la haute variabilité et la nature multivariée des événements. A cet effet, la méthodologie ici proposée prend en compte les complexités de l'espace géographique ou le phénomène a lieu, à travers de l'introduction du concept de Domaine de Validité et l'application des mesures d'analyse spatiale dans des données en présentant différentes contraintes géographiques. Cela permet l'évaluation du degré relatif d'agrégation spatiale/temporelle des structures du phénomène observé. En plus, exclusif au cas de feux forestiers, cette recherche propose aussi deux nouvelles méthodologies pour la définition et la cartographie des zones périurbaines, décrites comme des espaces anthropogéniques à proximité de la végétation sauvage ou de la forêt, et de la prédiction de la susceptibilité à l'ignition de feu. A cet égard, l'objectif principal de cette Thèse a été d'effectuer une recherche statistique/géospatiale avec une forte application dans des cas réels, pour analyser et décrire des phénomènes environnementaux complexes aussi bien que surmonter des problèmes méthodologiques non résolus relatifs à la caractérisation des structures spatio-temporelles, particulièrement, celles des occurrences de feux forestières. Ainsi, cette Thèse fournit une réponse à la demande croissante de la gestion et du monitoring environnemental pour le déploiement d'outils d'évaluation des risques et des dangers naturels et anthro- pogéniques. Les majeures contributions de ce travail ont été présentées aux conférences nationales et internationales, et ont été aussi publiées dans 5 revues internationales avec comité de lecture. Des collaborations nationales et internationales ont été aussi établies et accomplies avec succès.

Study of the skin anatomy with high-frequency (22 MHz) ultrasonography and histological correlation

AbstractThe present essay is aimed at getting the radiologist familiar with the basic histological skin structure, allowing for a better correlation with sonographic findings. A high-frequency (22 MHz) ultrasonography apparatus was utilized in the present study. The histological analysis was performed after the skin specimens fixation with formalin, inclusion in paraffin blocks and subsequent staining with hematoxylin-eosin. The authors present a literature review showing the relationship between sonographic and histological findings in normal cutaneous tissue, and discuss the technique for a better performance of the sonographic scan. High-frequency ultrasonography is an excellent tool for the diagnosis of different skin conditions. However, as this method is operator-dependent, it is crucial to understand the normal skin structure as well as the correlation between histological and sonographic findings.

Anatomical variations of the celiac trunk and hepatic arterial system: an analysis using multidetector computed tomography angiography

Abstract Objective: To analyze the prevalence of anatomical variations of celiac arterial trunk (CAT) branches and hepatic arterial system (HAS), as well as the CAT diameter, length and distance to the superior mesenteric artery. Materials and Methods: Retrospective, cross-sectional and predominantly descriptive study based on the analysis of multidetector computed tomography images of 60 patients. Results: The celiac trunk anatomy was normal in 90% of cases. Hepatosplenic trunk was found in 8.3% of patients, and hepatogastric trunk in 1.7%. Variation of the HAS was observed in 21.7% of cases, including anomalous location of the right hepatic artery in 8.3% of cases, and of the left hepatic artery, in 5%. Also, cases of joint relocation of right and left hepatic arteries, and trifurcation of the proper hepatic artery were observed, respectively, in 3 (5%) and 2 (3.3%) patients. Mean length and caliber of the CAT were 2.3 cm and 0.8 cm, respectively. Mean distance between CAT and superior mesenteric artery was 1.2 cm (standard deviation = 4.08). A significant correlation was observed between CAT diameter and length, and CAT diameter and distance to superior mesenteric artery. Conclusion: The pattern of CAT variations and diameter corroborate the majority of the literature data. However, this does not happen in relation to the HAS.

Hyperechoic breast lesions: anatomopathological correlation and differential sonographic diagnosis

Abstract Hyperechoic lesions are not a frequent finding at breasts ultrasonography, and most of times are associated with benign pathologies that do not require further evaluation. However, some neoplasms such as invasive breast carcinomas and metastases may present with hyperechogenicity. Thus, the knowledge about differential diagnoses and identification of signs of lesion aggressiveness are of great relevance to avoid unnecessary procedures or underdiagnosis, and to support the correct clinical/surgical approach. On the basis of such concepts, the present essay describes and illustrates the main features of hyperechoic lesions at breast ultrasonography in different cases, with anatomopathological correlation.

O6-Methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase protein expression by immunohistochemistry in brain and non-brain systemic tumours: systematic review and meta-analysis of correlation with methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction

Background: The DNA repair protein O6-Methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) confers resistance to alkylating agents. Several methods have been applied to its analysis, with methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction (MSP) the most commonly used for promoter methylation study, while immunohistochemistry (IHC) has become the most frequently used for the detection of MGMT protein expression. Agreement on the best and most reliable technique for evaluating MGMT status remains unsettled. The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the correlation between IHC and MSP. Methods A computer-aided search of MEDLINE (1950-October 2009), EBSCO (1966-October 2009) and EMBASE (1974-October 2009) was performed for relevant publications. Studies meeting inclusion criteria were those comparing MGMT protein expression by IHC with MGMT promoter methylation by MSP in the same cohort of patients. Methodological quality was assessed by using the QUADAS and STARD instruments. Previously published guidelines were followed for meta-analysis performance. Results Of 254 studies identified as eligible for full-text review, 52 (20.5%) met the inclusion criteria. The review showed that results of MGMT protein expression by IHC are not in close agreement with those obtained with MSP. Moreover, type of tumour (primary brain tumour vs others) was an independent covariate of accuracy estimates in the meta-regression analysis beyond the cut-off value. Conclusions Protein expression assessed by IHC alone fails to reflect the promoter methylation status of MGMT. Thus, in attempts at clinical diagnosis the two methods seem to select different groups of patients and should not be used interchangeably.

Diagnostic performance of 3D TSE MRI versus 2D TSE MRI of the knee at 1.5 T, with prompt arthroscopic correlation, in the detection of meniscal and cruciate ligament tears

Abstract Objective: To compare the diagnostic performance of the three-dimensional turbo spin-echo (3D TSE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technique with the performance of the standard two-dimensional turbo spin-echo (2D TSE) protocol at 1.5 T, in the detection of meniscal and ligament tears. Materials and Methods: Thirty-eight patients were imaged twice, first with a standard multiplanar 2D TSE MR technique, and then with a 3D TSE technique, both in the same 1.5 T MRI scanner. The patients underwent knee arthroscopy within the first three days after the MRI. Using arthroscopy as the reference standard, we determined the diagnostic performance and agreement. Results: For detecting anterior cruciate ligament tears, the 3D TSE and routine 2D TSE techniques showed similar values for sensitivity (93% and 93%, respectively) and specificity (80% and 85%, respectively). For detecting medial meniscal tears, the two techniques also had similar sensitivity (85% and 83%, respectively) and specificity (68% and 71%, respectively). In addition, for detecting lateral meniscal tears, the two techniques had similar sensitivity (58% and 54%, respectively) and specificity (82% and 92%, respectively). There was a substantial to almost perfect intraobserver and interobserver agreement when comparing the readings for both techniques. Conclusion: The 3D TSE technique has a diagnostic performance similar to that of the routine 2D TSE protocol for detecting meniscal and anterior cruciate ligament tears at 1.5 T, with the advantage of faster acquisition.

Profile, cost and pattern of prescriptions for polymedicated patients in Catalonia, Spain

OBJECTIVES: Polypharmacy is one of the main management issues in public health policies because of its financial impact and the increasing number of people involved. The polymedicated population according to their demographic and therapeutic profile and the cost for the public healthcare system were characterised. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Primary healthcare in Barcelona Health Region, Catalonia, Spain (5 105 551 inhabitants registered). PARTICIPANTS: All insured polymedicated patients. Polymedicated patients were those with a consumption of ≥16 drugs/month. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: The study variables were related to age, gender and medication intake obtained from the 2008 census and records of prescriptions dispensed in pharmacies and charged to the public health system. RESULTS: There were 36 880 polymedicated patients (women: 64.2%; average age: 74.5±10.9 years). The total number of prescriptions billed in 2008 was 2 266 830 (2 272 920 total package units). The most polymedicated group (up to 40% of the total prescriptions) was patients between 75 and 84 years old. The average number of prescriptions billed monthly per patient was 32±2, with an average cost of 452.7±27.5. The total cost of those prescriptions corresponded to 2% of the drug expenditure in Catalonia. The groups N, C, A, R and M represented 71.4% of the total number of drug package units dispensed to polymedicated patients. Great variability was found between the medication profiles of men and women, and between age groups; greater discrepancies were found in paediatric patients (5-14 years) and the elderly (≥65 years). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides essential information to take steps towards rational drug use and a structured approach in the polymedicated population in primary healthcare.

Framework for Traffic Pattern Identification: Required Step for Short-term Forecasting

In the world of transport management, the term ‘anticipation’ is gradually replacing ‘reaction’. Indeed, the ability to forecast traffic evolution in a network should ideally form the basis for many traffic management strategies and multiple ITS applications. Real-time prediction capabilities are therefore becoming a concrete need for the management of networks, both for urban and interurban environments, and today’s road operator has increasingly complex and exacting requirements. Recognising temporal patterns in traffic or the manner in which sequential traffic events evolve over time have been important considerations in short-term traffic forecasting. However, little work has been conducted in the area of identifying or associating traffic pattern occurrence with prevailing traffic conditions. This paper presents a framework for detection pattern identification based on finite mixture models using the EM algorithm for parameter estimation. The computation results have been conducted taking into account the traffic data available in an urban network.

Performance persistence of equity funds in the Russian stock market

This thesis investigates performance persistence among the equity funds investing in Russia during 2003-2007. Fund performance is measured using several methods including the Jensen alpha, the Fama-French 3- factor alpha, the Sharpe ratio and two of its variations. Moreover, we apply the Bayesian shrinkage estimation in performance measurement and evaluate its usefulness compared with the OLS 3-factor alphas. The pattern of performance persistence is analyzed using the Spearman rank correlation test, cross-sectional regression analysis and stacked return time series. Empirical results indicate that the Bayesian shrinkage estimates may provide better and more accurate estimates of fund performance compared with the OLS 3-factor alphas. Secondly, based on the results it seems that the degree of performance persistence is strongly related to length of the observation period. For the full sample period the results show strong signs of performance reversal whereas for the subperiod analysis the results indicate performance persistence during the most recent years.

Correlation between in vitro cytotoxicity and in vivo lethal activity in mice of epsilon toxin mutants from Clostridium perfringens

Epsilon toxin (Etx) from Clostridium perfringens is a pore-forming protein with a lethal effect on livestock, producing severe enterotoxemia characterized by general edema and neurological alterations. Site-specific mutations of the toxin are valuable tools to study the cellular and molecular mechanism of the toxin activity. In particular, mutants with paired cysteine substitutions that affect the membrane insertion domain behaved as dominant-negative inhibitors of toxin activity in MDCK cells. We produced similar mutants, together with a well-known non-toxic mutant (Etx-H106P), as green fluorescent protein (GFP) fusion proteins to perform in vivo studies in an acutely intoxicated mouse model. The mutant (GFP-Etx-I51C/A114C) had a lethal effect with generalized edema, and accumulated in the brain parenchyma due to its ability to cross the blood-brain barrier (BBB). In the renal system, this mutant had a cytotoxic effect on distal tubule epithelial cells. The other mutants studied (GFP-Etx-V56C/F118C and GFP-Etx-H106P) did not have a lethal effect or cross the BBB, and failed to induce a cytotoxic effect on renal epithelial cells. These data suggest a direct correlation between the lethal effect of the toxin, with its cytotoxic effect on the kidney distal tubule cells, and the ability to cross the BBB.

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement -SCR-, under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Self-assessment of individual differences in language switching

Language switching is omnipresent in bilingual individuals. In fact, the ability to switch languages (code switching) is a very fast, efficient, and flexible process that seems to be a fundamental aspect of bilingual language processing. In this study, we aimed to characterize psychometrically self-perceived individual differences in language switching and to create a reliable measure of this behavioral pattern by introducing a bilingual switching questionnaire. As a working hypothesis based on the previous literature about code switching, we decomposed language switching into four constructs: (i) L1 switching tendencies (the tendency to switch to L1; L1-switch); (ii) L2 switching tendencies (L2-switch); (iii) contextual switch, which indexes the frequency of switches usually triggered by a particular situation, topic, or environment; and (iv) unintended switch, which measures the lack of intention and awareness of the language switches. A total of 582 SpanishCatalan bilingual university students were studied. Twelve items were selected (three for each construct). The correlation matrix was factor-analyzed using minimum rank factor analysis followed by oblique direct oblimin rotation. The overall proportion of common variance explained by the four extracted factors was 0.86. Finally, to assess the external validity of the individual differences scored with the new questionnaire, we evaluated the correlations between these measures and several psychometric (language proficiency) and behavioral measures related to cognitive and attentional control. The present study highlights the importance of evaluating individual differences in language switching using self-assessment instruments when studying the interface between cognitive control and bilingualism.