Assessing the Relationship between the Baseline Value of a Continuous Variable and Subsequent Change over Time

Analyzing the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change of a continuous variable is a frequent matter of inquiry in cohort studies. These analyses are surprisingly complex, particularly if only two waves of data are available. It is unclear for non-biostatisticians where the complexity of this analysis lies and which statistical method is adequate.With the help of simulated longitudinal data of body mass index in children,we review statistical methods for the analysis of the association between the baseline value and subsequent change, assuming linear growth with time. Key issues in such analyses are mathematical coupling, measurement error, variability of change between individuals, and regression to the mean. Ideally, it is better to rely on multiple repeated measurements at different times and a linear random effects model is a standard approach if more than two waves of data are available. If only two waves of data are available, our simulations show that Blomqvist's method - which consists in adjusting for measurement error variance the estimated regression coefficient of observed change on baseline value - provides accurate estimates. The adequacy of the methods to assess the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change depends on the number of data waves, the availability of information on measurement error, and the variability of change between individuals.

Effects of brood size manipulation and common origin on phenotype and telomere length in nestling collared flycatchers.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is accumulating that telomere length is a good predictor of life expectancy, especially early in life, thus calling for determining the factors that affect telomere length at this stage. Here, we investigated the relative influence of early growth conditions and origin (genetics and early maternal effects) on telomere length of collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis) at fledging. We experimentally transferred hatchlings among brood triplets to create reduced, control (i.e. unchanged final nestling number) and enlarged broods. RESULTS: Although our treatment significantly affected body mass at fledging, we found no evidence that increased sibling competition affected nestling tarsus length and telomere length. However, mixed models showed that brood triplets explained a significant part of the variance in body mass (18%) and telomere length (19%), but not tarsus length (13%), emphasizing that unmanipulated early environmental factors influenced telomere length. These models also revealed low, but significant, heritability of telomere length (h(2) = 0.09). For comparison, the heritability of nestling body mass and tarsus length was 0.36 and 0.39, respectively, which was in the range of previously published estimates for those two traits in this species. CONCLUSION: Those findings in a wild bird population demonstrate that telomere length at the end of the growth period is weakly, but significantly, determined by genetic and/or maternal factors taking place before hatching. However, we found no evidence that the brood size manipulation experiment, and by extension the early growth conditions, influenced nestling telomere length. The weak heritability of telomere length suggests a close association with fitness in natural populations.

Charting Our Education Future White Paper On Education (Launch Copy 1995)

Education makes a fundamentally important contribution to the quality and well-being of our society. This White Paper addresses itself to the policy framework that can best embrace the diverse and multiple requirements for educational action in the future. The need for and importance of such a framework are widely accepted. In setting out a framework, it is important to provide a philosophical rationale which, far from being merely a theoretical or ceremonial exercise, systematically informs policy formulation and educational practice.

The effect of patient, provider and financing regulations on the intensity of ambulatory physical therapy episodes : a multilevel analysis based on routinely available data

Background: Many studies have found considerable variations in the resource intensity of physical therapy episodes. Although they have identified several patient-and provider-related factors, few studies have examined their relative explanatory power. We sought to quantify the contribution of patients and providers to these differences and examine how effective Swiss regulations are (nine-session ceiling per prescription and bonus for first treatments). Methods: Our sample consisted of 87,866 first physical therapy episodes performed by 3,365 physiotherapists based on referrals by 6,131 physicians. We modeled the number of visits per episode using a multilevel log linear regression with crossed random effects for physiotherapists and physicians and with fixed effects for cantons. The three-level explanatory variables were patient, physiotherapist and physician characteristics. Results: The median number of sessions was nine (interquartile range 6-13). Physical therapy use increased with age, women, higher health care costs, lower deductibles, surgery and specific conditions. Use rose with the share of nine-session episodes among physiotherapists or physicians, but fell with the share of new treatments. Geographical area had no influence. Most of the variance was explained at the patient level, but the available factors explained only 4% thereof. Physiotherapists and physicians explained only 6% and 5% respectively of the variance, although the available factors explained most of this variance. Regulations were the most powerful factors. Conclusion: Against the backdrop of abundant physical therapy supply, Swiss financial regulations did not restrict utilization. Given that patient-related factors explained most of the variance, this group should be subject to closer scrutiny. Moreover, further research is needed on the determinants of patient demand.

A flow cytometry based oligotrophic pollutant exposure test to detect bacterial growth inhibition and cell injury.

Toxicity of chemical pollutants in aquatic environments is often addressed by assays that inquire reproductive inhibition of test microorganisms, such as algae or bacteria. Those tests, however, assess growth of populations as a whole via macroscopic methods such as culture turbidity or colony-forming units. Here we use flow cytometry to interrogate the fate of individual cells in low-density populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SV3 exposed or not under oligotrophic conditions to a number of common pollutants, some of which derive from oil contamination. Cells were stained at regular time intervals during the exposure assay with fluorescent dyes that detect membrane injury (i.e., live-dead assay). Reduction of population growth rates was observed upon toxicant insult and depended on the type of toxicant. Modeling and cell staining indicate that population growth rate decrease is a combined effect of an increased number of injured cells that may or may not multiply, and live cells dividing at normal growth rates. The oligotrophic assay concept presented here could be a useful complement for existing biomarker assays in compliance with new regulations on chemical effect studies or, more specifically, for judging recovery after exposure to fluctuating toxicant conditions.

Evolution of life history traits in a natural population of the shrew Crocidura russula

Abstract Life history traits encompass all the decisions concerning fitness an individual is faced with during his life. The study of these traits is crucial to understand the factors shaping the biology of living organisms. Up until now, most of the information on the evolution of life history traits comes from laboratory studies. While these studies are interesting to test the effect of specific parameters, their conclusions are difficult to extrapolate to natural populations. Investigating the evolution of life history traits in natural populations is of great interest. This may be tricky because it requires information on reproduction, survival and morphology of individuals. Mark-recapture methods allow most of this information to be obtained. However, when direct observations of a species are not possible due to its ecology, indirect methods must be used to infer lifetime reproductive success. In this case, molecular markers are particularly helpful in assessing the genetic relationships between individuals and allow the construction of a pedigree. This thesis focuses on a natural population of a small insectivorous mammal, the greater white-toothed shrew, Crocidura russula. Because of its hidden lifestyle, the two complementary techniques mentioned above were combined to gather information on this population. The data were used to explore diverse aspects of evolutionary biology. We demonstrated that the high genetic variance displayed by the species was not maintained by its mating system because this shrew was less monogamous than previously thought. The large genetic diversity was most likely promoted by gene flow from the neighborhood. Dispersal was thus a central topic in this thesis. We showed that dispersal was not driven by inbreeding avoidance. In addition, we did not find any inbreeding depression in the population. Dispersal was promoted by a high number of vacant territories in the population for both sexes, meaning that territory acquisition played an important role in driving dispersal. Moreover, dispersal propensity was shown to have a genetic basis and, once achieved, to have no effect on individual fitness. Body mass was found to be a life history trait strongly influenced by sexual and viability selection in both sexes. Larger individuals had higher access to reproduction through territory acquisition and defense than lighter ones. By contrast, intermediate size individuals were favored by viability selection presumably because of ecological constraints and metabolic costs. Finally, we demonstrated that the majority of the life history traits in our shrew population has the potential to evolve because they maintained substantial amounts of additive genetic variance. Nonetheless, life history traits had no significant heritability due to their high level of nonadditive or environmental variance. Résumé Les traits d'histoire de vie comprennent toutes les décisions auxquelles un individu est confronté au cours de sa vie et qui concernent sa valeur adaptative. L'étude de ces traits est cruciale pour comprendre les facteurs qui façonnent la biologie des êtres vivants. Jusqu'à ce jour, la majorité des informations sur l'évolution des traits d'histoire de vie provient d'études réalisées en laboratoire. Alors que ces études sont intéressantes pour tester l'effet de paramètres spécifiques, leurs conclusions sont difficilement extrapolables aux populations naturelles. Il est particulièrement intéressant d'étudier l'évolution des traits d'histoire de vie dans des populations naturelles. Toutefois, ces études peuvent se révéler difficiles parce qu'elles requièrent des informations sur la reproduction, la survie et la morphologie des individus. Des méthodes de marquage-recapture permettent d'obtenir ces informations. Cependant, lorsque l'écologie de l'espèce rend les obervations directes impossibles, des méthodes indirectes doivent être utilisées pour obtenir le succès reproducteur des individus. Dans ce cas, les marqueurs moléculaires sont particulièrement utiles pour évaluer les relations génétiques entre individus et permettre la construction d'un pedigree. Cette thèse porte sur une population naturelle d'un petit mammifère insectivore, la musaraigne musette, Crocidura russula. Parce que cette espèce présente un mode de vie souterrain, les deux techniques complémentaires mentionnées ci-dessus ont été combinées pour acquérir les informations nécessaires. Les données ont été utilisées pour explorer divers aspects de biologie evolutive. Nous avons montré que la grande quantité de variance génétique trouvée chez cette espèce n'est pas maintenue par son système d'appariement. Celle-ci s'est en effet avérée être moins monogame que ce qui était admis jusqu'ici. Sa grande diversité génétique est plutôt entretenue par le flux de gènes provenant du voisinage. La dispersion a donc été un sujet phare dans cette thèse. Nous avons montré qu'elle n'est pas provoquée par un évitement de la consanguinité et nous n'avons pas trouvé de dépression de consanguité dans notre population. L'acquisition d'un territoire joue par contre un rôle important dans la dispersion. En outre, la dispersion possède une base génétique chez cette espèce. De plus, une fois qu'ils ont dispersé, les individus n'ont pas une valeur adaptative differente d'individus philopatriques. Le poids s'est avéré être un trait d'histoire de vie fortement influencé par la sélection sexuelle et de viabilité chez les deux sexes. Les gros individus ont accès à la reproduction parce qu'ils acquièrent et défendent un territoire plus facilement que les plus légers. Au contraire, les individus de taille intermédiaire sont favorisés par la sélection de viabilité, certainement à cause de contraintes écologiques et de coûts métaboliques. Finalement, nous avons montré que la majorité des traits d'histoire de vie dans notre population a le potentiel d'évoluer parce qu'elle maintient des quantités considérables de variance génétique additive. Néanmoins, l'héritabilité de ces traits d'histoire de vie n'est pas significative à cause de la grande quantité de variance non-additive ou environmentale associée à ces traits.

Development of a real time polymerase chain reaction for quantitation of Schistosoma mansoni DNA

This report describes the development of a SYBR Green I based real time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) protocol for detection on the ABI Prism 7000 instrument. Primers targeting the gene encoding the SSU rRNA were designed to amplify with high specificity DNA from Schistosoma mansoni, in a real time quantitative PCR system. The limit of detection of parasite DNA for the system was 10 fg of purified genomic DNA, that means less than the equivalent to one parasite cell (genome ~580 fg DNA). The efficiency was 0.99 and the correlation coefficient (R²) was 0.97. When different copy numbers of the target amplicon were used as standards, the assay could detect at least 10 copies of the specific target. The primers used were designed to amplify a 106 bp DNA fragment (Tm 83ºC). The assay was highly specific for S. mansoni, and did not recognize DNA from closely related non-schistosome trematodes. The real time PCR allowed for accurate quantification of S. mansoni DNA and no time-consuming post-PCR detection of amplification products by gel electrophoresis was required. The assay is potentially able to quantify S. mansoni DNA (and indirectly parasite burden) in a number of samples, such as snail tissue, serum and feces from patients, and cercaria infested water. Thus, these PCR protocols have potential to be used as tools for monitoring of schistosome transmission and quantitative diagnosis of human infection.

Defining the role of common variation in the genomic and biological architecture of adult human height.

Using genome-wide data from 253,288 individuals, we identified 697 variants at genome-wide significance that together explained one-fifth of the heritability for adult height. By testing different numbers of variants in independent studies, we show that the most strongly associated ∼2,000, ∼3,700 and ∼9,500 SNPs explained ∼21%, ∼24% and ∼29% of phenotypic variance. Furthermore, all common variants together captured 60% of heritability. The 697 variants clustered in 423 loci were enriched for genes, pathways and tissue types known to be involved in growth and together implicated genes and pathways not highlighted in earlier efforts, such as signaling by fibroblast growth factors, WNT/β-catenin and chondroitin sulfate-related genes. We identified several genes and pathways not previously connected with human skeletal growth, including mTOR, osteoglycin and binding of hyaluronic acid. Our results indicate a genetic architecture for human height that is characterized by a very large but finite number (thousands) of causal variants.

The number of families of Triatoma dimidiata in a Guatemalan house

Triatoma dimidiata is an important vector of Chagas disease in Guatemala. To help understand the biology and population dynamics of the insect, we estimated the number of full sibling families living in one house. Forty one families with an average size of 2.17 individuals were detected using random amplification of polymorphic DNA-polymerase chain reaction genetic markers. This result suggests high levels of migration of the vector, polyandry, and a significant capability for spreading the disease.

The subgenus Migonemyia Galati 1995 (Diptera, Psychodidae, Phlebotominae), with description of a new species Migonemyia vaniae: a review

The capture of a new species of the subgenus Migonemyia Galati, 1995 (Diptera, Psychodidae, Phlebotominae), Migonemyia vaniae sp. nov. in the Ribeira Valley, state of São Paulo, Brazil, together with the other two species: Mg. migonei (França, 1920) and Mg. rabelloi (Galati & Gomes, 1992) lead us to review this subgenus. The new species was described and illustrated. The genitalia of the two other species were also illustrated and some genital characteristics (number of setae on the gonocoxite tuft, ejaculatory ducts and pump and ducts/pump ratio; and number of setae on the tergite VIII of the females) considered important to differentiate the three species, including five populations of Mg. migonei (from Northeastern, Southeastern, and Southern Brazilian regions and of Peru) were submitted to variance analyses. The Mg. migonei population of Northeastern Brazilian region showed distinct smaller values (P < 0.05) than the other Brazilian populations studied as regarding these characteristics. The capture of both sexes of these three species in sympatry confirms the association between the sexes of Mg. rabelloi, recognised as doubtful when this species was originally described. Identification keys for male and female of the three species are presented.

Number of transferred embryos: how to reduce multiple pregnancies.

Because the diagnostic tools for predicting whether an early cleavage stage embryo can lead to a viable pregnancy are still elusive, transfer of more than one embryo remains quite common. However, the only way to reduce multiple pregnancies, considered as the main adverse effect of assisted reproductive technology, is to transfer a single embryo. In countries such as Switzerland and Germany, the law allows cryopreservation only at the 2-pronuclear stage. This restricts considerably the possibility of selecting the embryos to be transferred. Therefore, a good cryopreservation program at the 2-pronuclear stage is an essential tool to optimize the efficiency of in vitro fertilization (IVF). We therefore recommend the Cumulated Singleton Delivery Rate (CUSIDERA) as a measure of standard IVF efficiency. This rate averages approximately 23.5% when calculated over the last 10 years in our unit and reaches a value above 35% for patients with more than 10 zygotes. Elective single-embryo transfers and the decrease of iatrogenic multiple pregnancies in IVF remain dependent on better prognostic tools for the appropriate selection of patients, gametes, and zygotes.

Population structure and diversity of the pathogenic fungus Aspergillus fumigatus isolated from different sources and geographic origins

Fifty-five clinical and environmental Aspergillus fumigatus isolates from Mexico, Argentina, France and Peru were analyzed to determine their genetic variability, reproductive system and level of differentiation using amplified fragment length polymorphism markers. The level of genetic variability was assessed by measuring the percentage of polymorphic loci, number of effective alleles, expected heterozygocity and by performing an association index test (I A). The degree of genetic differentiation and variation was determined using analysis of molecular variance at three levels. Using the paired genetic distances, a dendrogram was built to detect the genetic relationship among alleles. Finally, a network of haplotypes was constructed to determine the geographic relationship among them. The results indicate that the clinical isolates have greater genetic variability than the environmental isolates. The I A of the clinical and environmental isolates suggests a recombining population structure. The genetic differentiation among isolates and the dendrogram suggest that the groups of isolates are different. The network of haplotypes demonstrates that the majority of the isolates are grouped according to geographic origin.

A large study of androgen receptor germline variants and their relation to sex hormone levels and prostate cancer risk. Results from the National Cancer Institute Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium

Background: Androgens are key regulators of prostate gland maintenance and prostate cancer growth, and androgen deprivation therapy has been the mainstay of treatment for advanced prostate cancer for many years. A long-standing hypothesis has been that inherited variation in the androgen receptor (AR) gene plays a role in prostate cancer initiation. However, studies to date have been inconclusive and often suffered from small sample sizes. Objective and Methods: We investigated the association of AR sequence variants with circulating sex hormone levels and prostate cancer risk in 6058 prostate cancer cases and 6725 controls of Caucasian origin within the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium. We genotyped a highly polymorphic CAG microsatellite in exon 1 and six haplotype tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms and tested each genetic variant for association with prostate cancer risk and with sex steroid levels. Results: We observed no association between AR genetic variants and prostate cancer risk. However, there was a strong association between longer CAG repeats and higher levels of testosterone (P = 4.73 × 10−5) and estradiol (P = 0.0002), although the amount of variance explained was small (0.4 and 0.7%, respectively). Conclusions: This study is the largest to date investigating AR sequence variants, sex steroid levels, and prostate cancer risk. Although we observed no association between AR sequence variants and prostate cancer risk, our results support earlier findings of a relation between the number of CAG repeats and circulating levels of testosterone and estradiol.

Validation of the Spanish version of the Index of Spouse Abuse

Background: Partner violence against women is a major public health problem. Although there are currently a number of validated screening and diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate this type of violence, such tools are not available in Spain. The aim of this study is to analyze the validity and reliability of the Spanish version of the Index of Spouse Abuse (ISA). Methods: A cross-sectional study was carried out in 2005 in two health centers in Granada, Spain, in 390 women between 18 and 70 years old. Analyses of the factorial structure, internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and construct validity were conducted. Cutoff points for each subscale were also defined. For the construct validity analysis, the SF-36 perceived general health dimension, the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale and the Goldberg 12-item General Health Questionnaire were included. Results: The psychometric analysis shows that the instrument has good internal consistency, reproducibility, and construct validity. Conclusions: The scale is useful for the analysis of partner violence against women in both a research setting and a healthcare setting