Crisis Económica en África Occidental: el caso de Dakar, 1929-1939

En este artículo se explora el impacto socio-económico de la crisis internacional de 1929 en Senegal y más concretamente en la ciudad-puerto de Dakar. Se analizan las consecuencias de la dependencia externa y la extroversión económica que caracterizaba a las estructuras productivas coloniales, destacando también la respuesta organizada de los movimientos sociales africanos. Por otra parte, se estudia la evolución de las infraestructuras y actividad portuaria, observando la metropolización regional de Dakar durante este periodo.

Líneas posibles de avance del modelo de Sraffa

Diversas consideraciones históricas e ideológicas han impedido la difusión de la obra fundamental de Sraffa Producción de mercancías por medio de mercancías. La obra de Sraffa ha sido estudiada fundamentalmente en sus aspectos matemáticos por economistas tales como Garegnani, Abraham-Frois, Pasinetti, Steedman, Kurz, Roncaglia, etc. pero sin desarrollar apenas sus aspectos teóricos y económicos. En este artículo se hacen algunas consideraciones sobre posibles desarrollos del libro de Sraffa a partir de su propio esquema de pensamiento.

Evaluation of an alternative spectroscopic approach for aflatoxin analysis: Comparative analysis of food and feed samples with UPLC-MS/MS

Increasing research has highlighted the effects of changing climates on the occurrence and prevalence of toxigenic Aspergillus species producing aflatoxins. There is concern of the toxicological effects to human health and animal productivity following acute and chronic exposure that may affect the future ability to provide safe and sufficient food globally. Considerable research has focused on the detection of these toxins, based on the physicochemical and biochemical properties of the aflatoxin compounds, in agricultural products for human and animal consumption. As improvements in food security continue more regulations for acceptable levels of aflatoxins have arisen globally; the most stringent in Europe. These regulations are important for developing countries as aflatoxin occurrence is high significantly effecting international trade and the economy. In developed countries analytical approaches have become highly sophisticated, capable of attaining results with high precision and accuracy, suitable for regulatory laboratories. Regrettably, many countries that are affected by aflatoxin contamination do not have resources for high tech HPLC and MS instrumentation and require more affordable, yet robust equally accurate alternatives that may be used by producers, processors and traders in emerging economies. It is especially important that those companies wishing to exploit the opportunities offered by lucrative but highly regulated markets in the developed world, have access to analytical methods that will ensure that their exports meet their customers quality and safety requirements.

This work evaluates the ToxiMet system as an alternative approach to UPLC–MS/MS for the detection and determination of aflatoxins relative to current European regulatory standards. Four commodities: rice grain, maize cracked and flour, peanut paste and dried distillers grains were analysed for natural aflatoxin contamination. For B1 and total aflatoxins determination the qualitative correlation, above or below the regulatory limit, was good for all commodities with the exception of the dried distillers grain samples for B1 for which no calibration existed. For B1 the quantitative R² correlations were 0.92, 0.92, 0.88 (<250 μg/kg) and 0.7 for rice, maize, peanuts and dried distillers grain samples respectively whereas for total aflatoxins the quantitative correlation was 0.92, 0.94, 0.88 and 0.91. The ToxiMet system could be used as an alternative for aflatoxin analysis for current legislation but some consideration should be given to aflatoxin M1 regulatory levels for these commodities considering the high levels detected in this study especially for maize and peanuts

Fast and sensitive aflatoxin B1 and total aflatoxins ELISAs for analysis of peanuts, maize and feed ingredients

Aflatoxins are a group of carcinogenic compounds produced by Aspergillus fungi that can grow on different agricultural crops. Both acute and chronic exposure to these mycotoxins can cause serious illness. Due to the high occurrence of aflatoxins in crops worldwide fast and cost-effective analytical methods are required for the identification of contaminated agricultural commodities before they are processed into final products and placed on the market. In order to provide new tools for aflatoxin screening two prototype fast ELISA methods: one for the detection of aflatoxin B₁ and the other for total aflatoxins were developed. Seven monoclonal antibodies with unique high sensitivity and at the same time good cross-reactivity profiles were produced. The monoclonal antibodies were characterized and two antibodies showing IC₅₀ of 0.037 ng/mL and 0.031 ng/mL for aflatoxin B₁ were applied in simple and fast direct competitive ELISA tests. The methods were validated for peanut matrix as this crop is one of the most affected by aflatoxin contamination. The detection capabilities of aflatoxin B₁ and total aflatoxins ELISAs were 0.4 μg/kg and 0.3 μg/kg for aflatoxin B₁, respectively, which are one of the lowest reported values. Total aflatoxins ELISA was also validated for the detection of aflatoxins B₂, G₁ and G₂. The application of the developed tests was demonstrated by screening 32 peanut samples collected from the UK retailers. Total aflatoxins ELISA was further applied to analyse naturally contaminated maize porridge and distiller's dried grain with solubles samples and the results were correlated with these obtained by UHPLC-MS/MS method.

Influência Intradiária Do Preço Internacional Do Petróleo Nas Ações Da Petrobrás

Objetivo. O objetivo deste artigo é aferir causalidade entre a ação preferencial da Petrobrás (PETR4) com o mercado futuro de commodities de petróleo (contratos com primeiro vencimento CL1) e o índice futuro do S&P 500 (contratos com primeiro vencimento, SP1). Metodologia. Utilizamos o vetor auto-regressivo (VAR) e o vetor de correção de erros (VEC)para descrever a estrutura de interdependência entre as variáveis. Achados. Os testes de causalidade indicaram que a commodity de petróleo e o índice de ações norte-americano Granger causam PETR4. Verificamos que um modelo VAR(1) é o mais adequado para capturar o efeito cruzado entre as variáveis. Por fim, os testes indicaram que o modelo do tipo VEC melhora as previsões para as variáveis PETR4 e CL1. Limitações. Apesar de utilizar um grande volume de informações intradiárias, os dados referem-se à apenas seis meses de observações, o que pode viesar os resultados obtidos. Originalidade/Valor. O estudo é pioneiro (ao menos no conhecimento dos autores) em averiguar relações entre esses ativos.

Shakespeare and the Colonial Encounter in India in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-03

Diagnostic Tests and their Application in the Management of Soil- and Water-borne Oomycete Pathogen Species

Oomycete diseases cause significant losses across a broad range of crop and aquaculture commodities worldwide. These losses can be greatly reduced by disease management practices steered by accurate and early diagnoses of pathogen presence. Determinations of disease potential can help guide optimal crop rotation regimes, varietal selections, targeted control measures, harvest timings and crop post-harvest handling. Pathogen detection prior to infection can also reduce the incidence of disease epidemics. Classical methods for the isolation of oomycete pathogens are normally deployed only after disease symptom appearance. These processes are often-time consuming, relying on culturing the putative pathogen(s) and the availability of expert taxonomic skills for accurate identification; a situation that frequently results in either delayed application, or routine ‘blanket’ over-application of control measures. Increasing concerns about pesticides in the environment and the food chain, removal or restriction of their usage combined with rising costs have focussed interest in the development and improvement of disease management systems. To be effective, these require timely, accurate and preferably quantitatve diagnoses. A wide range of rapid diagnostic tools, from point of care immunodiagnostic kits to next generation nucleotide sequencing have potential application in oomycete disease management. Here we review currently-available as well as promising new technologies in the context of commercial agricultural production systems, considering the impacts of specific biotic and abiotic and other important factors such as speed and ease of access to information and cost effectiveness

Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

TRANSFERÊNCIA DE TECNOLOGIA: UM ESTUDO COM PEQUENOS PRODUTORES RURAIS NO MÉDIO NORTE MATO-GROSSENSE

O agronegócio, setor imponente da economia no Brasil, é um dos responsáveis por parte significativa da produção de alimentos. Neste sentido, o setor necessita de um constante aprimoramento e de um vasto investimento em pesquisas e inovações. Para que a tecnologia desenvolvida nos centros de pesquisas chegue até a lavoura, ela precisa passar por muitos estágios. Em alguns destes estágios, os responsáveis pela utilização da tecnologia podem ser pessoas leigas, como pequenos produtores rurais. Assim a transferência de tecnologia e conhecimento são fatores determinantes para disseminação das inovações no agronegócio brasileiro. Portanto, esta dissertação tem o objetivo de identificar as práticas de difusão de tecnologia no agronegócio do médio norte Mato-Grossense. Trata-se de um estudo descritivo com abordagem quantitativa. A pesquisa foi realizada nas cidades de Sorriso e Vera, ambas no médio norte mato-grossense. Os dados foram coletados por meio de questionários estruturados direcionados aos pequenos produtores rurais e profissionais do agronegócio da região. Participaram da pesquisa 109 pequenos produtores rurais e 106 profissionais do agronegócio. Os resultados desta pesquisa demonstram que existe um alinhamento entre os produtos inovadores adquiridos pelos pequenos produtores rurais e os produtos inovadores ofertados pelos profissionais. A pesquisa também revelou que os produtores na sua maioria adquirem produtos inovadores com o objetivo de aumentar a produtividade. Observou-se que os profissionais na sua grande maioria trabalham com Commodities, e os últimos produtos inovadores que eles prestaram assistência técnica foram as sementes de soja do tipo intacta. O que demonstrou um alinhamento entre o que é ofertado pelos profissionais e o que é adquirido pelos pequenos produtores rurais. Cabe destacar também as contribuições deste estudo para a região, visto que existe a necessidade de estratégias que promovam um melhor aproveitamento das unidades de terra, assim como uma maior inserção dos pequenos produtores rurais nas unidades de demonstração e uma maior participação destes produtores em experimentos agrícolas.

Toxigenic fungi in coffee samples: a menace to public health

Introduction - Mycotoxin contamination was reported to occur in some food and commodities, such as coffee, particularly due to the presence of toxigenic fungi such as Aspergillus, Penicillium and Fusarium spp. Aspergilli are known to produce high levels of mycotoxins, such as ochratoxin and aflatoxin. Aspergillus ochraceus has been proposed as the major cause of ochratoxin A contamination in coffee beans. Aim of the study - The aim of this work was to evaluate the prevalence of Aspergillus sections Circumdati, Flavi and Fumigati in 28 green coffee samples to be used by Portuguese coffee industry, from Coffea arabica (Arabica coffee) and Coffea canephora (Robusta coffee) species from different origins.

Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Volatility and Correlations from High-Frequency Data

This dissertation contains four essays that all share a common purpose: developing new methodologies to exploit the potential of high-frequency data for the measurement, modeling and forecasting of financial assets volatility and correlations. The first two chapters provide useful tools for univariate applications while the last two chapters develop multivariate methodologies. In chapter 1, we introduce a new class of univariate volatility models named FloGARCH models. FloGARCH models provide a parsimonious joint model for low frequency returns and realized measures, and are sufficiently flexible to capture long memory as well as asymmetries related to leverage effects. We analyze the performances of the models in a realistic numerical study and on the basis of a data set composed of 65 equities. Using more than 10 years of high-frequency transactions, we document significant statistical gains related to the FloGARCH models in terms of in-sample fit, out-of-sample fit and forecasting accuracy compared to classical and Realized GARCH models. In chapter 2, using 12 years of high-frequency transactions for 55 U.S. stocks, we argue that combining low-frequency exogenous economic indicators with high-frequency financial data improves the ability of conditionally heteroskedastic models to forecast the volatility of returns, their full multi-step ahead conditional distribution and the multi-period Value-at-Risk. Using a refined version of the Realized LGARCH model allowing for time-varying intercept and implemented with realized kernels, we document that nominal corporate profits and term spreads have strong long-run predictive ability and generate accurate risk measures forecasts over long-horizon. The results are based on several loss functions and tests, including the Model Confidence Set. Chapter 3 is a joint work with David Veredas. We study the class of disentangled realized estimators for the integrated covariance matrix of Brownian semimartingales with finite activity jumps. These estimators separate correlations and volatilities. We analyze different combinations of quantile- and median-based realized volatilities, and four estimators of realized correlations with three synchronization schemes. Their finite sample properties are studied under four data generating processes, in presence, or not, of microstructure noise, and under synchronous and asynchronous trading. The main finding is that the pre-averaged version of disentangled estimators based on Gaussian ranks (for the correlations) and median deviations (for the volatilities) provide a precise, computationally efficient, and easy alternative to measure integrated covariances on the basis of noisy and asynchronous prices. Along these lines, a minimum variance portfolio application shows the superiority of this disentangled realized estimator in terms of numerous performance metrics. Chapter 4 is co-authored with Niels S. Hansen, Asger Lunde and Kasper V. Olesen, all affiliated with CREATES at Aarhus University. We propose to use the Realized Beta GARCH model to exploit the potential of high-frequency data in commodity markets. The model produces high quality forecasts of pairwise correlations between commodities which can be used to construct a composite covariance matrix. We evaluate the quality of this matrix in a portfolio context and compare it to models used in the industry. We demonstrate significant economic gains in a realistic setting including short selling constraints and transaction costs.

Diseño de un fondo de inversión colectiva basado en derivados energéticos

El propósito de este trabajo de grado es diseñar un fondo de inversión colectiva donde los activos predominantes sean derivados energéticos -- Lo anterior, ajustado al marco normativo expedido por el Ministerio de Hacienda en 2013 -- Para su diseño se estudiará el comportamiento de los derivados energéticos en el principal mercado de futuros: New York Mercantile Exchange y Derivex, que es el mercado de derivados de commodities energéticos en Colombia -- Se recopilarán datos a través de una consulta histórica en diferentes sistemas de información, como Bloomberg y Derivex -- Recopilada y analizada la información en referencia, se determinará la composición del portafolio que se ajuste a las necesidades del mercado colombiano y se desarrollarán pruebas y modelos estadísticos para medir los riesgos financieros -- Finalmente, la investigación y el trabajo de campo se presentan en un informe donde se exponen las características que debe tener un fondo de inversión concentrado en derivados energéticos

Efectos de ciclos de precios de metales : estimación de un modelo de equilibrio general con time to build para la economía peruana, 2001-2015

En el presente documento se estudia el desempeño que ha tenido Perú durante la última fase expansiva del ciclo de precios de commodities, específicamente entre los años 2001 y 2015. Para esto, se desarrolla un modelo de equilibrio general estocástico y dinámico, basado en Medina y Soto (2007) y Fornero y Kichner (2014), que incorpora un sector productor de commodities con inversión del tipo time to build. El modelo es estimado de forma lineal y a partir de este se muestra la importancia que tienen los choques de precios commodities sobre el resto de la actividad económica. Asimismo, se analizan distintos tipos de políticas fiscales y monetarias, ante este tipo de choques. También se obtienen políticas monetarias óptimas a partir de la función de pérdida de la autoridad monetaria. Los resultados de la investigación apuntan a que, cuando hay un incremento en el precio de los commodities, se genera una dinámica procíclica en el valor de la producción de todos los sectores, en la inversión, el consumo y el gasto del Gobierno. Además, se encuentra que la incorporación del mecanismo de time to build permite explicar mejor la dinámica observada. Dicho mecanismo ayuda a comprender que el choque en cuestión demora en propagarse, ya que los proyectos mineros toman tiempo en construirse. Este aporte metodológico es de particular relevancia en los ejercicios de modelamiento y predicción que se quieran realizar sobre la economía peruana.

Use of sulfuryl fluoride in the management of strongly phosphine-resistant insect pest populations in bulk grain storages in Australia

Sulfuryl fluoride (SF), an effective structural fumigant, is registered recently as Profume™ for controlling insect pests of stored grains and processed commodities. Information on its effectiveness in disinfestation of bulk grain, however, is limited. The ongoing problem with the strong level of resistance to phosphine has been addressed recently through deployment of SF as a ‘resistance breaker’ in bulk storages in Australia. This paper discusses important results on the efficacy of SF against key phosphine- resistant insect pests, lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominca, red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum, rice weevil, Sitophilus oryzae and the rusty grain beetle, Cryptolestes ferrugineus. We have established CT (g-hm3) profiles for SF against these insect pests at two temperature regimes 25 and 30°C, that showed that both temperature and exposure period (t) has significant influence on the effectiveness of SF than the concentration. Over a seven days fumigation period, CTs of 800 and 400 g-hm3 achieved complete control of all the target pests, including the most strongly phosphine - resistant species, C. ferrugineus at 25 and 30°C, respectively. Results from four industry scale field trials involving currently registered rate of SF (1500 g-hm3) over 2–14 d exposure period, confirmed its effectiveness in achieving complete control of the target pest species. The assessment of postfumigation grain samples across all the test storages indicated that the reinfestation occurs after three months. Monitoring resistance to phosphine in C. ferrugineus over a six year period (2009–2015), showed a significant reduction in resistant populations after the introduction of SF into the fumigation strategy at problematic storage sites. Overall our research concludes that SF is a good candidate to be used as a ‘resistance breaker’ where phosphine resistance is prevalent.

Status of resistance to phosphine in insect pests of stored products in Vietnam

In response to numerous reports of failures to control insect pests of stored products with phosphine in Vietnam, a national survey for resistance to this key fumigant was undertaken in 2009–2011. Data from a more limited survey undertaken by the authors in 2002 in northern Vietnam are also presented. Samples collected in the 2002 survey (Sitophilus oryzae, n=8; Tribolium castaneum, n=8) were tested using a full dose- response assay, while for the 2009–11 survey, F1 generations were tested for resistance with two discriminating dosages of phosphine to detect frequency of weak and strong resistance phenotypes. Compared with a susceptible reference strain, in 2002, resistance to phosphine was indicated in six T. castaneum samples but only two of S. oryzae. Resistance factor, however, did not exceed 2.8-fold in T. castaneum and 1.7 in S. oryzae indicating relatively low frequency and weak expression of resistance. In 2009–11 survey, 176 samples were collected from a range of food and feed storages along the supply chain and from all major regions of Vietnam (125 sites). Rhyzopertha dominica and S. oryzae were the most common species found infesting stored commodities. Resistance was detected at high frequency in all the species. Weak and strong resistance phenotype frequencies were, respectively: Cryptolestes ferrugineus (37 and 58%, n=19), R. dominica (1.5 and 97%, n=65), S. oryzae (34 and 59%, n=82) and T. castaneum (70 and 30%, n=10). Strong resistance phenotype was detected in all the major regions and all parts of the supply chain but frequency was the highest in central storages and animal feed establishments. The increase in frequency and strength of resistance to phosphine in the eight years between the two surveys has been rapid and dramatic. The survey demonstrates the threat of resistance to grain protection in Vietnam and highlights the need for training of fumigators, and the development and adoption of phosphine resistance management tactics nationally.