Bayesian estimation of small effects in exercise and sports science

The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a ‘magnitude-based inference’ approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.

Citizens breaking out of filter bubbles: Urban screens as civic media

Social media platforms risk polarising public opinions by employing proprietary algorithms that produce filter bubbles and echo chambers. As a result, the ability of citizens and communities to engage in robust debate in the public sphere is diminished. In response, this paper highlights the capacity of urban interfaces, such as pervasive displays, to counteract this trend by exposing citizens to the socio-cultural diversity of the city. Engagement with different ideas, networks and communities is crucial to both innovation and the functioning of democracy. We discuss examples of urban interfaces designed to play a key role in fostering this engagement. Based on an analysis of works empirically-grounded in field observations and design research, we call for a theoretical framework that positions pervasive displays and other urban interfaces as civic media. We argue that when designed for more than wayfinding, advertisement or television broadcasts, urban screens as civic media can rectify some of the pitfalls of social media by allowing the polarised user to break out of their filter bubble and embrace the cultural diversity and richness of the city.

Minimising lateral impact derailment potential at level crossings through guard rails

Derailments due to lateral collisions between heavy road vehicles and passenger trains at level crossings (LCs) are serious safety issues. A variety of countermeasures in terms of traffic laws, communication technology and warning devices are used for minimising LC accidents; however, innovative civil infrastructure solution is rare. This paper presents a study of the efficacy of guard rail system (GRS) to minimise the derailment potential of trains laterally collided by heavy road vehicles at LCs. For this purpose, a three-dimensional dynamic model of a passenger train running on a ballasted track fitted with guard rail subject to lateral impact caused by a road truck is formulated. This model is capable of predicting the lateral collision-induced derailments with and without GRS. Based on dynamic simulations, derailment prevention mechanism of the GRS is illustrated. Sensitivities of key parameters of the GRS, such as the flange way width, the installation height and contact friction, to the efficacy of GRS are reported. It is shown that guard rails can enhance derailment safety against lateral impacts at LCs.

Dimethyl sulfide and other biogenic volatile organic compound emissions from branching coral and reef seawater: Potential sources of secondary aerosol over the Great Barrier Reef

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the headspace of bubble chambers containing branches of live coral in filtered reef seawater were analysed using gas chromatography with mass spectrometry (GC-MS). When the coral released mucus it was a source of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and isoprene; however, these VOCs were not emitted to the chamber headspace from mucus-free coral. This finding, which suggests that coral is an intermittent source of DMS and isoprene, was supported by the observation of occasional large pulses of atmospheric DMS (DMSa) over Heron Island reef on the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, in the austral winter. The highest DMSa pulse (320 ppt) was three orders of magnitude less than the DMS mixing ratio (460 ppb) measured in the headspace of a dynamically purged bubble chamber containing a mucus-coated branch of Acropora aspera indicating that coral reefs can be strong point sources of DMSa. Static headspace GC-MS analysis of coral fragments identified mainly DMS and seven other minor reduced sulfur compounds including dimethyl disulfide, methyl mercaptan, and carbon disulfide, while coral reef seawater was an indicated source of methylene chloride, acetone, and methyl ethyl ketone. The VOCs emitted by coral and reef seawater are capable of producing new atmospheric particles < 15 nm diameter as observed at Heron Island reef. DMS and isoprene are known to play a role in low-level cloud formation, so aerosol precursors such as these could influence regional climate through a sea surface temperature regulation mechanism hypothesized to operate over the GBR.

Visual performance at passive level crossings with long sighting distances

The third edition of the Australian Standard AS1742 Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices Part 7 provides a method of calculating the sighting distance required to safely proceed at passive level crossings based on the physics of moving vehicles. This required distance becomes greater with higher line speeds and slower, heavier vehicles so that it may return quite a long sighting distance. However, at such distances, there are also concerns around whether drivers would be able to reliably identify a train in order to make an informed decision regarding whether it would be safe to proceed across the level crossing. In order to determine whether drivers are able to make reliable judgements to proceed in these circumstances, this study assessed the distance at which a train first becomes identifiable to a driver as well as their, ability to detect the movement of the train. A site was selected in Victoria, and 36 participants with good visual acuity observed 4 trains in the 100-140 km/h range. While most participants could detect the train from a very long distance (2.2 km on average), they could only detect that the train was moving at much shorter distances (1.3 km on average). Large variability was observed between participants, with 4 participants consistently detecting trains later than other participants. Participants tended to improve in their capacity to detect the presence of the train with practice, but a similar trend was not observed for detection of the movement of the train. Participants were consistently poor at accurately judging the approach speed of trains, with large underestimations at all investigated distances.

Investigating the interactions of road users and pedestrians in a dynamic rail level crossing environment

There are 23,500 level crossings in Australia. In these types of environments it is important to understand what human factor issues are present and how road users and pedestrians engage with crossings. A series of on-site observations were performed over a 2-day period at a 3-track active crossing. This was followed by 52 interviews with local business owners and members of the public. Data were captured using a manual-coding scheme for recording and categorising violations. Over 700 separate road user and pedestrian violations were recorded, with representations in multiple categories. Time stamping revealed that the crossing was active for 59% of the time in some morning periods. Further, trains could take up to 4-min to arrive following its first activation. Many pedestrians jaywalked under side rails and around active boom gates. In numerous cases pedestrians put themselves at risk in order to beat or catch the approaching train, ignored signs to stop walking when the lights were flashing. Analysis of interview data identified themes associated with congestion, safety, and violations. This work offers insight into context specific issues associated with active level crossing protection.

A new constraint programming approach for optimising a coal rail system

Because of the bottlenecking operations in a complex coal rail system, millions of dollars are costed by mining companies. To handle this issue, this paper investigates a real-world coal rail system and aims to optimise the coal railing operations under constraints of limited resources (e.g., limited number of locomotives and wagons). In the literature, most studies considered the train scheduling problem on a single-track railway network to be strongly NP-hard and thus developed metaheuristics as the main solution methods. In this paper, a new mathematical programming model is formulated and coded by optimization programming language based on a constraint programming (CP) approach. A new depth-first-search technique is developed and embedded inside the CP model to obtain the optimised coal railing timetable efficiently. Computational experiments demonstrate that high-quality solutions are obtainable in industry-scale applications. To provide insightful decisions, sensitivity analysis is conducted in terms of different scenarios and specific criteria. Keywords Train scheduling · Rail transportation · Coal mining · Constraint programming

Participation in Urban Interaction Design for Civic Engagement

The future of civic engagement is characterised by both technological innovation as well as new technological user practices that are fuelled by trends towards mobile, personal devices; broadband connectivity; open data; urban interfaces; and cloud computing. These technology trends are progressing at a rapid pace, and have led global technology vendors to package and sell the “Smart City” as a centralised service delivery platform predicted to optimise and enhance cities’ key performance indicators – and generate a profitable market. The top-down deployment of these large and proprietary technology platforms have helped sectors such as energy, transport, and healthcare to increase efficiencies. However, an increasing number of scholars and commentators warn of another “IT bubble” emerging. Along with some city leaders, they argue that the top-down approach does not fit the governance dynamics and values of a liberal democracy when applied across sectors. A thorough understanding is required, of the socio-cultural nuances of how people work, live, play across different environments, and how they employ social media and mobile devices to interact with, engage in, and constitute public realms. Although the term “slacktivism” is sometimes used to denote a watered down version of civic engagement and activism that is reduced to clicking a “Like” button and signing online petitions, we believe that we are far from witnessing another Biedermeier period that saw people focus on the domestic and the non-political. There is plenty of evidence to the contrary, such as post-election violence in Kenya in 2008, the Occupy movements in New York, Hong Kong and elsewhere, the Arab Spring, Stuttgart 21, Fukushima, the Taksim Gezi Park in Istanbul, and the Vinegar Movement in Brazil in 2013. These examples of civic action shape the dynamics of governments, and in turn, call for new processes to be incorporated into governance structures. Participatory research into these new processes across the triad of people, place and technology is a significant and timely investment to foster productive, sustainable, and liveable human habitats. With this article, we want to reframe the current debates in academia and priorities in industry and government to allow citizens and civic actors to take their rightful centrepiece place in civic movements. This calls for new participatory approaches for co-inquiry and co-design. It is an evolving process with an explicit agenda to facilitate change, and we propose participatory action research (PAR) as an indispensable component in the journey to develop new governance infrastructures and practices for civic engagement. We do not limit our definition of civic technologies to tools specifically designed to simply enhance government and governance, such as renewing your car registration online or casting your vote electronically on election day. Rather, we are interested in civic media and technologies that foster citizen engagement in the widest sense, and particularly the participatory design of such civic technologies that strive to involve citizens in political debate and action as well as question conventional approaches to political issues. The rationale for this approach is an alternative to smart cities in a “perpetual tomorrow,” based on many weak and strong signals of civic actions revolving around technology seen today. It seeks to emphasise and direct attention to active citizenry over passive consumerism, human actors over human factors, culture over infrastructure, and prosperity over efficiency. First, we will have a look at some fundamental issues arising from applying simplistic smart city visions to the kind of a problem a city poses. We focus on the touch points between “the city” and its civic body, the citizens. In order to provide for meaningful civic engagement, the city must provide appropriate interfaces.

Alppihiihdon alkutaival : Pujottelu- ja tunturihiihto Suomessa 1920-luvulta 1960-luvulle

The object of study in this thesis is Finnish skiing culture and Alpine skiing in particular from the point of view of ethnology. The objective is to clarify how, when, why and by what routes Alpine skiing found its way to Finland. What other phenomena did it bring forth? The objective is essentially linked to the diffusion of modern sports culture to Finland. The introduction of Alpine skiing to Finland took place at a time when skiing culture was changing: flat terrain skiing was abandoned in favour of cross-country skiing in the early decades of the 20th century, and new techniques and equipment made skiing a much more versatile sport. The time span of the study starts from the late 19th century and ends in the mid-20th century. The spatial focus is in Finland. People and communities formed through their actions are core elements in the study of sports and physical activity. Organizations tend to raise themselves into influential actors in the field of physical culture even if active individuals work in their background. Original archive documents and publications of sports organizations are central source material for this thesis, complemented by newspapers and sports magazines as well as photographs and films on early Alpine skiing in Finland. Ever since their beginning in the late 19th century skiing races in Finland had mostly taken place on flat terrain or sea ice. Skiing in broken cross-country terrain made its breakthrough in the 1920 s, at a time when modern skiing techniques were introduced in instruction manuals. In the late 1920 s the Finnish Women s Physical Education Association (SNLL) developed unconventional forms of pedagogical skiing instruction. They abandoned traditional Finnish flat terrain skiing and boldly looked for influences abroad, which caused friction between the leaders of the women s sports movement and the (male) leaders of the central skiing organization. SNLL was instrumental in launching winter tourism in Finnish Lapland in 1933. The Finnish Tourism Society, the State Railways and sports organizations worked in close co-operation to instigate a boom in tourism, which culminated in the inauguration of a tourist hotel at Pallastunturi hill in the winter of 1938. Following a Swedish model, fell-skiing was developed as a domestic counterpart to Alpine skiing as practiced in Central Europe. The first Finnish skiing resorts were built at sites of major cross-country skiing races. Inspired by the slope at Bad Grankulla health spa, the first slalom skiing races and fell-skiing, slalom enthusiasts began to look for purpose-built sites to practice turn technique. At first they would train in natural slopes but in the late 1930 s new slopes were cleared for slalom races and recreational skiing. The building of slopes and ski lifts and the emergence of organized slalom racing competitions gradually separated Alpine skiing from the old fell-skiing. After the Second World War fell-skiing was transformed into ski trekking on marked courses. At the same time Alpine skiing also parted ways with cross-country skiing to become a sport of its own. In the 1940 s and 1950 s Finnish Alpine skiing was almost exclusively a competitive sport. The specificity of Alpine skiing was enhanced by rapid development of equipment: the new skis, bindings and shoes could only be used going downhill.

Cytosines, but Not Purines, Determine Recombination Activating Gene (RAG)-induced Breaks on Heteroduplex DNA Structures

The sequence specificity of the recombination activating gene (RAG) complex during V(D)J recombination has been well studied. RAGs can also act as structure-specific nuclease; however, little is known about the mechanism of its action. Here, we show that in addition to DNA structure, sequence dictates the pattern and efficiency of RAG cleavage on altered DNA structures. Cytosine nucleotides are preferentially nicked by RAGs when present at single-stranded regions of heteroduplex DNA. Although unpaired thymine nucleotides are also nicked, the efficiency is many fold weaker. Induction of single- or double-strand breaks by RAGs depends on the position of cytosines and whether it is present on one or both of the strands. Interestingly, RAGs are unable to induce breaks when adenine or guanine nucleotides are present at single-strand regions. The nucleotide present immediately next to the bubble sequence could also affect RAG cleavage. Hence, we propose “C(d)C(S)C(S)” (d, double-stranded; s, single-stranded) as a consensus sequence for RAG-induced breaks at single-/double-strand DNA transitions. Such a consensus sequence motif is useful for explaining RAG cleavage on other types of DNA structures described in the literature. Therefore, the mechanism of RAG cleavage described here could explain facets of chromosomal rearrangements specific to lymphoid tissues leading to genomic instability.

Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability

Perhaps the most fundamental prediction of financial theory is that the expected returns on financial assets are determined by the amount of risk contained in their payoffs. Assets with a riskier payoff pattern should provide higher expected returns than assets that are otherwise similar but provide payoffs that contain less risk. Financial theory also predicts that not all types of risks should be compensated with higher expected returns. It is well-known that the asset-specific risk can be diversified away, whereas the systematic component of risk that affects all assets remains even in large portfolios. Thus, the asset-specific risk that the investor can easily get rid of by diversification should not lead to higher expected returns, and only the shared movement of individual asset returns – the sensitivity of these assets to a set of systematic risk factors – should matter for asset pricing. It is within this framework that this thesis is situated. The first essay proposes a new systematic risk factor, hypothesized to be correlated with changes in investor risk aversion, which manages to explain a large fraction of the return variation in the cross-section of stock returns. The second and third essays investigate the pricing of asset-specific risk, uncorrelated with commonly used risk factors, in the cross-section of stock returns. The three essays mentioned above use stock market data from the U.S. The fourth essay presents a new total return stock market index for the Finnish stock market beginning from the opening of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in 1912 and ending in 1969 when other total return indices become available. Because a total return stock market index for the period prior to 1970 has not been available before, academics and stock market participants have not known the historical return that stock market investors in Finland could have achieved on their investments. The new stock market index presented in essay 4 makes it possible, for the first time, to calculate the historical average return on the Finnish stock market and to conduct further studies that require long time-series of data.

Extending lagrange interpolation to develop a 4-node quadrilateral element

Today finite element method is a well established tool in engineering analysis and design. Though there axe many two and three dimensional finite elements available, it is rare that a single element performs satisfactorily in majority of practical problems. The present work deals with the development of 4-node quadrilateral element using extended Lagrange interpolation functions. The classical univariate Lagrange interpolation is well developed for 1-D and is used for obtaining shape functions. We propose a new approach to extend the Lagrange interpolation to several variables. When variables axe more than one the method also gives the set of feasible bubble functions. We use the two to generate shape function for the 4-node arbitrary quadrilateral. It will require the incorporation of the condition of rigid body motion, constant strain and Navier equation by imposing necessary constraints. The procedure obviates the need for isoparametric transformation since interpolation functions are generated for arbitrary quadrilateral shapes. While generating the element stiffness matrix, integration can be carried out to the accuracy desired by dividing the quadrilateral into triangles. To validate the performance of the element which we call EXLQUAD4, we conduct several pathological tests available in the literature. EXLQUAD4 predicts both stresses and displacements accurately at every point in the element in all the constant stress fields. In tests involving higher order stress fields the element is assured to converge in the limit of discretisation. A method thus becomes available to generate shape functions directly for arbitrary quadrilateral. The method is applicable also for hexahedra. The approach should find use for development of finite elements for use with other field equations also.

On the bursting criterion for laminar separation bubbles

Traditionally, laminar separation bubbles have been characterised as being 'long' or 'short' on the basis of a two parameter 'bursting' criterion involving a pressure gradient parameter and Reynolds Number at separation. In the present work we suggest a refined bursting criterion, which takes into account not just the length of the bubble but also the maximum height of the bubble, thereby shedding some light on the less understood phenomenon of 'bursting' in laminar separation bubbles.

Constructing Stability in Software Product Development during Organizational Restructurings

We all have fresh in our memory what happened to the IT sector only a few years ago when the IT-bubble burst. The upswing of productivity in this sector slowed down, investors lost large investments, many found themselves looking for a new job, and countless dreams fell apart. Product developers in the IT sector have experienced a large number of organizational restructurings since the IT boom, including rapid growth, downsizing processes, and structural reforms. Organizational restructurings seem to be a complex and continuous phenomenon people in this sector have to deal with. How do software product developers retrospectively construct their work in relation to organizational restructurings? How do organizational restructurings bring about specific social processes in product development? This working paper focuses on these questions. The overall aim is to develop an understanding of how software product developers construct their work during organizational restructurings. The theoretical frame of reference is based on a social constructionist approach and discourse analysis. This approach offers more or less radical and critical alternatives to mainstream organizational theory. Writings from this perspective attempt to investigate and understand sociocultural processes by which various realities are created. Therefore these studies aim at showing how people participate in constituting the social world (Gergen & Thatchenkery, 1996); knowledge of the world is seen to be constructed between people in daily interaction, in which language plays a central role. This means that interaction, especially the ways of talking and writing about product development during organizational restructurings, become the target of concern. This study consists of 25 in-depth interviews following a pilot study based on 57 semi-structured interviews. In this working paper I analyze 9 in-depth interviews. The interviews were conducted in eight IT firms. The analysis explores how discourses are constructed and function, as well as the consequences that follow from different discourses. The analysis shows that even though the product developers have experienced many organizational restructurings, some of which have been far-reaching, their accounts build strongly on a stability discourse. According to this discourse product development is, perhaps surprisingly, not influenced to a great extent by organizational restructurings. This does not mean that product development is static. According to the social constructionist approach, product development is constantly being reproduced and maintained in ongoing processes. In other words stable effects are also ongoing achievements and these are of particular interest in this study. The product developers maintain rather than change the product development through ongoing processes of construction, even when they experience continuous extensive organizational restructurings. The discourse of stability exists alongside other discourses, some which contradict each other. Together they direct product development and generate meanings. The product developers consequently take an active role in the construction of their work during organizational restructurings. When doing this they also negotiate credible positions for themselves

The fluctuations in slag foam under dynamic conditions

In the present article, slag foaming phenomenon under dynamic conditions is critically analyzed on the basis of the results of high-temperature X-ray image analysis experiments. The results indicate that the mismatch between the gas generation rate and gas escape rate has a serious impact on the foam height. This mismatch is attributed to the chemical reaction rate, which has to be considered in modeling slag foaming under dynamic conditions. The results further imply that a critical ratio of bubble size/crucible size exists, where wall effects are likely to become prominent.