Credit risk & forward price models

Doutoramento em Gestão

Por dentro da ordem : os comunistas na Assembleia Constituinte de 1946

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Humanas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em História, 2016.

Proton Form Factor Puzzle and the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer(CLAS) Two-Photon Exchange Experiment

The electromagnetic form factors are the most fundamental observables that encode information about the internal structure of the nucleon. The electric ($G_{E}$) and the magnetic ($G_{M}$) form factors contain information about the spatial distribution of the charge and magnetization inside the nucleon. A significant discrepancy exists between the Rosenbluth and the polarization transfer measurements of the electromagnetic form factors of the proton. One possible explanation for the discrepancy is the contributions of two-photon exchange (TPE) effects. Theoretical calculations estimating the magnitude of the TPE effect are highly model dependent, and limited experimental evidence for such effects exists. Experimentally, the TPE effect can be measured by comparing the ratio of positron-proton elastic scattering cross section to that of the electron-proton $\large(R = \frac{\sigma (e^{+}p)}{\sigma (e^{-}p)}\large)$. The ratio $R$ was measured over a wide range of kinematics, utilizing a 5.6 GeV primary electron beam produced by the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab. This dissertation explored dependence of $R$ on kinematic variables such as squared four-momentum transfer ($Q^{2}$) and the virtual photon polarization parameter ($\varepsilon$). A mixed electron-positron beam was produced from the primary electron beam in experimental Hall B. The mixed beam was scattered from a liquid hydrogen (LH$_{2}$) target. Both the scattered lepton and the recoil proton were detected by the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS). The elastic events were then identified by using elastic scattering kinematics. This work extracted the $Q^{2}$ dependence of $R$ at high $\varepsilon$ ($\varepsilon > $ 0.8) and the $\varepsilon$ dependence of $R$ at $\langle Q^{2} \rangle \approx 0.85$ GeV$^{2}$. In these kinematics, our data confirm the validity of the hadronic calculations of the TPE effect by Blunden, Melnitchouk, and Tjon. This hadronic TPE effect, with additional corrections contributed by higher excitations of the intermediate state nucleon, largely reconciles the Rosenbluth and the polarization transfer measurements of the electromagnetic form factors.

La actualización del modelo socialista y sus efectos en el Partido Comunista Cubano

El VI Congreso del Partido Comunista de Cuba introdujo una nueva agenda económica que el Gobierno llama la actualización del modelo socialista. Muchos piensan que en esencia se trata de una serie de reformas y reducen su importancia a su dimensión económica. Esta monografía busca explicar la actualización aplicando el análisis de sistemas-mundo de Immanuel Wallerstein, aportando una interpretación no convencional del fenómeno. Se puntualizará en las variables de poder y en los actores políticos que han determinado la nueva política económica: el Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC) y las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias (FAR). Ambos conforman lo que Wallerstein denomina un movimiento antisitémico. El argumento principal es que el movimiento ha puesto en marcha las reformas buscando fortalecer el Estado y así garantizar su supervivencia al consolidar su posición como el competidor único del poder estatal. Como se verá, estas metas han llevado al movimiento a sacrificar parte de su naturaleza antisistémica.

La Organización Internacional de la Francofonía como mecanismo de inserción internacional de la Provincia de Quebec durante el gobierno de Jean Charest (2003- 2012)

La dinámica actual de las relaciones internacionales hace cada vez más necesario el análisis de los gobiernos subnacionales, los cuales paulatinamente han influido en determinadas temáticas que afectan sus intereses. Ejemplo de esto es la provincia de Quebec, que tiene como uno de sus objetivos de política exterior el fortalecimiento de su capacidad de acción e influencia en los principales escenarios internacionales. El presente artículo analiza la manera en que la provincia, durante el gobierno del primer ministro, Jean Charest, desarrolló este objetivo principalmente a través de la Organización Internacional de la Francofonía. Para ello, la investigación se sirvió de los conceptos de paradiplomacia y de actores Mixtos propuestos por Ivo D. Duchacek y Mónica Salomón respectivamente. Este enfoque permitió concluir que, si bien la Francofonía le permitió fortalecer su capacidad de acción e influencia en determinadas regiones, Quebec tiene la posibilidad de configurarse como un actor influyente en nuevos escenarios de toma de decisiones como América Latina.

Transferencia del voto en las regiones : redes electorales nacionales y territoriales del Partido de la U en Córdoba y Sucre

La presente investigación pretende determinar la influencia de la transferencia de voto en los resultados de los distintos niveles de elección, nacional y territorial, del Partido de La U en Córdoba y Sucre entre 2010 y 2015. Se analiza cómo la construcción de redes y alianzas electorales entre los caciques de región y los candidatos da paso a la formación de potentes clanes políticos, capaces de movilizar al electorado más allá del partidismo o de la política personalista. Así, a través del análisis comparado de los resultados electorales, el trabajo de archivo y la cartografía electoral, se estudian las estructuras de poder propias de dos departamentos en los que la política es el resultado de competencias o acuerdos entre familias políticas, que utilizan las elecciones como herramienta para establecer dinámicas de grupos que le dan sentido al sistema político local.

Las exportaciones agropecuarias en los albores de la expansión cafetalera

ResumenEn este artículo se analizan los cambios operados en la inversión agropecuaria durante el inicio de la expansión cafetalera. El estudio se ciñe exclusivamente a la región de la provincia de Heredia que se ubica en el Valle Central. Por comprender la evolución económica de la región, se elaboró un análisis de los diversos sectores sociales poseedores de unidades productivas que comprende desde las décadas de finales del S.XVIII hasta mediados del S.XIX.AbstractThe article discusses changes in agricultural investment during the early development of coffee cultivation. The study focuses on the party of the province of Heredia wich is within the Central Valley. To explain economic change in the region, social sectors involved in various productive units from the late 18

The “Iranian ART Revolution”: infertility, assisted reproductive technology, and third-party donation in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Infertility is a social onus for women in Iran, who are expected to produce children early within marriage. With its estimated 1.5 million infertile couples, Iran is the only Muslim country in which assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs) using donor gametes and embryos have been legitimized by religious authorities and passed into law. Th is has placed Iran, a Shia-dominant country, in a unique position vis-à-vis the Sunni Islamic world, where all forms of gamete donation are strictly prohibited. In this article, we first examine the “Iranian ART revolution” that has allowed donor technologies to be admitted as a form of assisted reproduction. Then we examine the response of Iranian women to their infertility and the profound social pressures they face. We argue that the experience of infertility and its treatment are mediated by women’s socioeconomic position within Iranian society. Many women lack economic access to in vitro fertilization (IVF) technologies and fear the moral consequences of gamete donation. Thus, the benefits of the Iranian ART revolution are mixed: although many Iranian women have been able to overcome their infertility through ARTs, not all women’s lives are improved by these technologies.

Reproductive health : findings from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Chapter 3: Use of contraception

Chapter 3: Use of contraception. p15-32 Key findings: This section examines trends in the use of contraception between 1996 and 2006 by women who participated in the surveys for the 1973-1978 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. 1. The oral contraceptive pill was the most commonly used method of contraception at each survey, but its use decreased over time. 2.Of women who consistently used contraception, 40% used the oral contraceptive pill as their only method of contraception in at least three out of four surveys. 3. The proportion of women using condoms as their only method of contraception remained steady over time (15-18%) but only 3% of all women used condoms only at every survey. 4. The proportion of women using both condoms and the oral contraceptive pill remained steady at 13-14% of all women from Survey 1 to 3, but decreased to 8% of all women at Survey 4. 5. The use of methods other than the oral contraceptive pill and/or condoms increased at Survey 4. 6. The proportion of women using an implant (e.g. Implanon) remained steady between Surveys 3 and 4, with 3% of women using an implant only. Around one third of implant users at Survey 3 continued to use this method at Survey 4. 7. The main reasons for not using contraception at Surveys 3 and 4 were pregnancy, trying to conceive, or no male sexual partners. 8. Women who used contraception were more likely to be in de facto relationships or single, be up to date with Pap tests and have had two or more births. 9. Women who did not use contraception were more likely to be non-drinkers and/or do low levels of exercise, have had one birth and have experienced miscarriage. 10. Contraception changed in expected ways according to reproductive events: women who reported only miscarriages between surveys also stopped using contraception in the same period; most women who did not report reproductive events continued to use the same method of contraception; and women who had a termination tended to switch methods.

Insurance and transport law : controlling insurance contract terms : Section 54 of the Insurance Contracts Act – compliance, recovery and accountability

Commonwealth legislation covering insurance contracts contains numerous provisions designed to control the operation and effect of terms in life and general insurance contracts. For example, the Life Insurance Act 1995 (Cth) contains provisions regulating the consequences attendant upon incorrect statements in proposals [1] and non-payment of premiums, [2] provides that an insurer may only exclude liability in the case of suicide if it has made express provision for such contingency in its policy, [3] and severely restricts the efficacy of conditions as to war risks. [4] The Insurance Contracts Act 1984 (Cth) is even more intrusive and has a major impact upon contractual provisions in the general insurance field. It is beyond the scope of this note to explore all of these provisions in any detail but examples of controls and constraints imposed upon the operation and effect of contractual provisions include the following. A party is precluded from relying upon a provision in a contract of insurance if such reliance would amount to a failure to act with the utmost good faith. [5] Similarly, a policy provision which requires differences or disputes arising out of the insurance to be submitted to arbitration is void, [6] unless the insurance is a genuine cover for excess of loss over and above another specified insurance. [7] Similarly clause such as conciliation clauses, [8] average clauses, [9] and unusual terms [10] are given qualified operation. [11] However the provision in the Insurance Contracts Act that has the greatest impact upon, and application to, a wide range of insurance clauses and claims is s 54. This section has already generated a significant volume of case law and is the focus of this note. In particular this note examines two recent cases. The first, Johnson v Triple C Furniture and Electrical Pty Ltd [2012] 2 Qd R 337, (hereafter the Triple C case), is a decision of the Queensland Court of Appeal; and the second, Matthew Maxwell v Highway Hauliers Pty Ltd [2013] WASCA 115, (hereafter the Highway Hauliers case), is a decision of the Court of Appeal in Western Australia. This latter decision is on appeal to the High Court of Australia. The note considers too the decision of the New South Wales Court of Appeal in Prepaid Services Pty Ltd v Atradius Credit Insurance NV [2013] NSWCA 252 (hereafter the Prepaid Services case).These cases serve to highlight the complex nature of s 54 and its application, as well as the difficulty in achieving a balance between an insurer and an insured's reasonable expectations.

Reinventing America on the battlefields of Spain or following the party line: conflicting perceptions of the Spanish Civil War in the present and in the past

Isolationism and neutrality are two of the recurrent themes in the study of the history of the U.S. foreign policy in the interwar years. The trauma of the Great War, which had swept away 130.000 U.S. lives and had cost $30 billion, had led public opinion to strongly oppose any involvement with European affairs. Besides, the urgent need for economic recovery during the dismal years of the Great Depression did not leave Roosevelt much room for manoeuvre to influence international events. His positions regarding the intentions of the Fascist states remained, at best, ambivalent. These facts notwithstanding, about 2800 U.S. citizens crossed the Atlantic and rushed in to help democratic Spain, which was on the verge of becoming one more hostage in the hands of the Fascism. They joined the other British, Irish and Canadian volunteers and formed the XV International Brigade. 900 Americans never returned home. This alone should challenge the commonly held assumption that the American people were indifferent to the rise of the Fascist threat in Europe. But it also begs other questions. Considering the prevailing isolationist mood, what really motivated them? With what discursive elements did these men construct their anti Fascist representations? How far did their understanding of the Spanish democracy correspond to their own American democratic ideal? In what way did their war experience across the Atlantic mould their perception of U.S. politics (both domestic and foreign)? How far did the Spanish Civil War constitute one first step towards the realization that the U.S. might actually be drawn into another international conflict of unpredictable consequences? Last but not the least, what ideological, political and cultural complicity existed between the men from the English-speaking battalions? In order to unearth some of the answers, I intend to examine their letters and see how these men recorded the historical events in which they took part. Their correspondence emerged from the desire to prove their commitment to a common cause and spoke of a common war experience, but each letter, in its uniqueness, ends up mirroring not only the social and political background of each individual fighter, but also his own particular perspective of the war, of world politics and of the Spanish people. We shall see how these letters differ and converge and how these particular accounts weave, as in an epistolary novel, a larger-than-life narrative of outrage and solidarity, despair and hope.