Vegetation and Topographic Control of Wind-blown Snow Distributions in Distributed and Aggregated Simulations for an Arctic Tundra Basin

Essery, RLH & JW, Pomeroy, (2004). Vegetation and topographic control of wind-blown snow distributions in distributed and aggregated simulations. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 5, 735-744.

Interaction between coronal mass ejections and the solar wind

Jones, R. A.; Breen, A. R.; Fallows, R. A.; Canals, A.; Bisi, M. M.; Lawrence, G. (2007). Interaction between coronal mass ejections and the solar wind, Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, Issue A8 RAE2008

Estimating random transverse velocities in the fast solar wind from EISCAT Interplanetary Scintillation measurements

Canals, A.; Breen, A. R.; Ofman, L.; Moran, P. J.; Fallows, R. A., Estimating random transverse velocities in the fast solar wind from EISCAT Interplanetary Scintillation measurements, Annales Geophysicae, vol. 20, Issue 9, pp.1265-1277

Transition region, coronal heating and the fast solar wind

Li, Xing, 'Transition region, coronal heating and the fast solar wind', Astronomy and Astrophysics (2003) 406 pp.345-356 RAE2008

Extremely long baseline interplanetary scintillation measurements of solar wind velocity

Breen, Andrew; Fallows, R. A.; Thomasson, P.; Bisi, M. M., 'Extremely long baseline interplanetary scintillation measurements of solar wind velocity', Journal of Geophysical Research (2006) 111(A8) pp.A08104 RAE2008

Hybrid simulation of ion cyclotron resonance in the solar wind: evolution of velocity distribution functions

Li, Xing; Habbal, S.R., (2005) 'Hybrid simulation of ion cyclotron resonance in the solar wind: evolution of velocity distribution functions', Journal of Geophysical Research 110(A10) pp.A10109 RAE2008

Large-scale structure of the fast solar wind

Breen, Andrew; Bisi, M.M.; Fallows, R.A.; Habbal, S.R., (2007) 'Large-scale structure of the fast solar wind', Journal of Geophysical Research 112(A6) pp.A06101 RAE2008

Integration of relational and hierarchical network information for protein function prediction

BACKGROUND:In the current climate of high-throughput computational biology, the inference of a protein's function from related measurements, such as protein-protein interaction relations, has become a canonical task. Most existing technologies pursue this task as a classification problem, on a term-by-term basis, for each term in a database, such as the Gene Ontology (GO) database, a popular rigorous vocabulary for biological functions. However, ontology structures are essentially hierarchies, with certain top to bottom annotation rules which protein function predictions should in principle follow. Currently, the most common approach to imposing these hierarchical constraints on network-based classifiers is through the use of transitive closure to predictions.RESULTS:We propose a probabilistic framework to integrate information in relational data, in the form of a protein-protein interaction network, and a hierarchically structured database of terms, in the form of the GO database, for the purpose of protein function prediction. At the heart of our framework is a factorization of local neighborhood information in the protein-protein interaction network across successive ancestral terms in the GO hierarchy. We introduce a classifier within this framework, with computationally efficient implementation, that produces GO-term predictions that naturally obey a hierarchical 'true-path' consistency from root to leaves, without the need for further post-processing.CONCLUSION:A cross-validation study, using data from the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, shows our method offers substantial improvements over both standard 'guilt-by-association' (i.e., Nearest-Neighbor) and more refined Markov random field methods, whether in their original form or when post-processed to artificially impose 'true-path' consistency. Further analysis of the results indicates that these improvements are associated with increased predictive capabilities (i.e., increased positive predictive value), and that this increase is consistent uniformly with GO-term depth. Additional in silico validation on a collection of new annotations recently added to GO confirms the advantages suggested by the cross-validation study. Taken as a whole, our results show that a hierarchical approach to network-based protein function prediction, that exploits the ontological structure of protein annotation databases in a principled manner, can offer substantial advantages over the successive application of 'flat' network-based methods.

Neural Models of Motion Integration, Segmentation, and Probablistic Decision-Making

When brain mechanism carry out motion integration and segmentation processes that compute unambiguous global motion percepts from ambiguous local motion signals? Consider, for example, a deer running at variable speeds behind forest cover. The forest cover is an occluder that creates apertures through which fragments of the deer's motion signals are intermittently experienced. The brain coherently groups these fragments into a trackable percept of the deer in its trajectory. Form and motion processes are needed to accomplish this using feedforward and feedback interactions both within and across cortical processing streams. All the cortical areas V1, V2, MT, and MST are involved in these interactions. Figure-ground processes in the form stream through V2, such as the seperation of occluding boundaries of the forest cover from the boundaries of the deer, select the motion signals which determine global object motion percepts in the motion stream through MT. Sparse, but unambiguous, feauture tracking signals are amplified before they propogate across position and are intergrated with far more numerous ambiguous motion signals. Figure-ground and integration processes together determine the global percept. A neural model predicts the processing stages that embody these form and motion interactions. Model concepts and data are summarized about motion grouping across apertures in response to a wide variety of displays, and probabilistic decision making in parietal cortex in response to random dot displays.

Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting

Wind energy is the energy source that contributes most to the renewable energy mix of European countries. While there are good wind resources throughout Europe, the intermittency of the wind represents a major problem for the deployment of wind energy into the electricity networks. To ensure grid security a Transmission System Operator needs today for each kilowatt of wind energy either an equal amount of spinning reserve or a forecasting system that can predict the amount of energy that will be produced from wind over a period of 1 to 48 hours. In the range from 5m/s to 15m/s a wind turbine’s production increases with a power of three. For this reason, a Transmission System Operator requires an accuracy for wind speed forecasts of 1m/s in this wind speed range. Forecasting wind energy with a numerical weather prediction model in this context builds the background of this work. The author’s goal was to present a pragmatic solution to this specific problem in the ”real world”. This work therefore has to be seen in a technical context and hence does not provide nor intends to provide a general overview of the benefits and drawbacks of wind energy as a renewable energy source. In the first part of this work the accuracy requirements of the energy sector for wind speed predictions from numerical weather prediction models are described and analysed. A unique set of numerical experiments has been carried out in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute to investigate the forecast quality of an operational numerical weather prediction model for this purpose. The results of this investigation revealed that the accuracy requirements for wind speed and wind power forecasts from today’s numerical weather prediction models can only be met at certain times. This means that the uncertainty of the forecast quality becomes a parameter that is as important as the wind speed and wind power itself. To quantify the uncertainty of a forecast valid for tomorrow requires an ensemble of forecasts. In the second part of this work such an ensemble of forecasts was designed and verified for its ability to quantify the forecast error. This was accomplished by correlating the measured error and the forecasted uncertainty on area integrated wind speed and wind power in Denmark and Ireland. A correlation of 93% was achieved in these areas. This method cannot solve the accuracy requirements of the energy sector. By knowing the uncertainty of the forecasts, the focus can however be put on the accuracy requirements at times when it is possible to accurately predict the weather. Thus, this result presents a major step forward in making wind energy a compatible energy source in the future.

Grid integration of wave energy & generic modelling of ocean devices for power system studies

The work presented in this thesis covers four major topics of research related to the grid integration of wave energy. More specifically, the grid impact of a wave farm on the power quality of its local network is investigated. Two estimation methods were developed regarding the flicker level Pst generated by a wave farm in relation to its rated power as well as in relation to the impedance angle ψk of the node in the grid to which it is connected. The electrical design of a typical wave farm design is also studied in terms of minimum rating for three types of costly pieces of equipment, namely the VAr compensator, the submarine cables and the overhead line. The power losses dissipated within the farm's electrical network are also evaluated. The feasibility of transforming a test site into a commercial site of greater rated power is investigated from the perspective of power quality and of cables and overhead line thermal loading. Finally, the generic modelling of ocean devices, referring here to both wave and tidal current devices, is investigated.

Hybrid integration and packaging of grating-coupled silicon photonics

This thesis covers both the packaging of silicon photonic devices with fiber inputs and outputs as well as the integration of laser light sources with these same devices. The principal challenge in both of these pursuits is coupling light into the submicrometer waveguides that are the hallmark of silicon-on-insulator (SOI) systems. Previous work on grating couplers is leveraged to design new approaches to bridge the gap between the highly-integrated domain of silicon, the Interconnected world of fiber and the active region of III-V materials. First, a novel process for the planar packaging of grating couplers with fibers is explored in detail. This technology allows the creation of easy-to-use test platforms for laser integration and also stands on its own merits as an enabling technology for next-generation silicon photonics systems. The alignment tolerances of this process are shown to be well-suited to a passive alignment process and for wafer-scale assembly. Furthermore, this technology has already been used to package demonstrators for research partners and is included in the offerings of the ePIXfab silicon photonics foundry and as a design kit for PhoeniX Software’s MaskEngineer product. After this, a process for hybridly integrating a discrete edge-emitting laser with a silicon photonic circuit using near-vertical coupling is developed and characterized. The details of the various steps of the design process are given, including mechanical, thermal, optical and electrical steps. The interrelation of these design domains is also discussed. The construction process for a demonstrator is outlined, and measurements are presented of a series of single-wavelength Fabry-Pérot lasers along with a two-section laser tunable in the telecommunications C-band. The suitability and potential of this technology for mass manufacture is demonstrated, with further opportunities for improvement detailed and discussed in the conclusion.

Development of germanium/silicon integration for near infrared detection

Silicon (Si) is the base material for electronic technologies and is emerging as a very attractive platform for photonic integrated circuits (PICs). PICs allow optical systems to be made more compact with higher performance than discrete optical components. Applications for PICs are in the area of fibre-optic communication, biomedical devices, photovoltaics and imaging. Germanium (Ge), due to its suitable bandgap for telecommunications and its compatibility with Si technology is preferred over III-V compounds as an integrated on-chip detector at near infrared wavelengths. There are two main approaches for Ge/Si integration: through epitaxial growth and through direct wafer bonding. The lattice mismatch of ~4.2% between Ge and Si is the main problem of the former technique which leads to a high density of dislocations while the bond strength and conductivity of the interface are the main challenges of the latter. Both result in trap states which are expected to play a critical role. Understanding the physics of the interface is a key contribution of this thesis. This thesis investigates Ge/Si diodes using these two methods. The effects of interface traps on the static and dynamic performance of Ge/Si avalanche photodetectors have been modelled for the first time. The thesis outlines the original process development and characterization of mesa diodes which were fabricated by transferring a ~700 nm thick layer of p-type Ge onto n-type Si using direct wafer bonding and layer exfoliation. The effects of low temperature annealing on the device performance and on the conductivity of the interface have been investigated. It is shown that the diode ideality factor and the series resistance of the device are reduced after annealing. The carrier transport mechanism is shown to be dominated by generation–recombination before annealing and by direct tunnelling in forward bias and band-to-band tunnelling in reverse bias after annealing. The thesis presents a novel technique to realise photodetectors where one of the substrates is thinned by chemical mechanical polishing (CMP) after bonding the Si-Ge wafers. Based on this technique, Ge/Si detectors with remarkably high responsivities, in excess of 3.5 A/W at 1.55 μm at −2 V, under surface normal illumination have been measured. By performing electrical and optical measurements at various temperatures, the carrier transport through the hetero-interface is analysed by monitoring the Ge band bending from which a detailed band structure of the Ge/Si interface is proposed for the first time. The above unity responsivity of the detectors was explained by light induced potential barrier lowering at the interface. To our knowledge this is the first report of light-gated responsivity for vertically illuminated Ge/Si photodiodes. The wafer bonding approach followed by layer exfoliation or by CMP is a low temperature wafer scale process. In principle, the technique could be extended to other materials such as Ge on GaAs, or Ge on SOI. The unique results reported here are compatible with surface normal illumination and are capable of being integrated with CMOS electronics and readout units in the form of 2D arrays of detectors. One potential future application is a low-cost Si process-compatible near infrared camera.

Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.

High-efficiency photovoltaics through mechanically stacked integration of solar cells based on the InP lattice constant

Solar Energy is a clean and abundant energy source that can help reduce reliance on fossil fuels around which questions still persist about their contribution to climate and long-term availability. Monolithic triple-junction solar cells are currently the state of the art photovoltaic devices with champion cell efficiencies exceeding 40%, but their ultimate efficiency is restricted by the current-matching constraint of series-connected cells. The objective of this thesis was to investigate the use of solar cells with lattice constants equal to InP in order to reduce the constraint of current matching in multi-junction solar cells. This was addressed by two approaches: Firstly, the formation of mechanically stacked solar cells (MSSC) was investigated through the addition of separate connections to individual cells that make up a multi-junction device. An electrical and optical modelling approach identified separately connected InGaAs bottom cells stacked under dual-junction GaAs based top cells as a route to high efficiency. An InGaAs solar cell was fabricated on an InP substrate with a measured 1-Sun conversion efficiency of 9.3%. A comparative study of adhesives found benzocyclobutene to be the most suitable for bonding component cells in a mechanically stacked configuration owing to its higher thermal conductivity and refractive index when compared to other candidate adhesives. A flip-chip process was developed to bond single-junction GaAs and InGaAs cells with a measured 4-terminal MSSC efficiency of 25.2% under 1-Sun conditions. Additionally, a novel InAlAs solar cell was identified, which can be used to provide an alternative to the well established GaAs solar cell. As wide bandgap InAlAs solar cells have not been extensively investigated for use in photovoltaics, single-junction cells were fabricated and their properties relevant to PV operation analysed. Minority carrier diffusion lengths in the micrometre range were extracted, confirming InAlAs as a suitable material for use in III-V solar cells, and a 1-Sun conversion efficiency of 6.6% measured for cells with 800 nm thick absorber layers. Given the cost and small diameter of commercially available InP wafers, InGaAs and InAlAs solar cells were fabricated on alternative substrates, namely GaAs. As a first demonstration the lattice constant of a GaAs substrate was graded to InP using an InxGa1-xAs metamorphic buffer layer onto which cells were grown. This was the first demonstration of an InAlAs solar cell on an alternative substrate and an initial step towards fabricating these cells on Si. The results presented offer a route to developing multi-junction solar cell devices based on the InP lattice parameter, thus extending the range of available bandgaps for high efficiency cells.